When Joe makes a Bucs season prediction like this, he tries to answer as if a team of armed terrorists are before him demanding the correct answer with a knife to his throat.
In other words, Joe takes it seriously. So here goes:
The Bucs’ brass, from Bryan Glazer to Mark Dominik to Raheem Morris, is quick to compare the Bucs’ current construction of a “lasting contender” to the Father Dungy era. Even old school Bucs from that time like John Lynch and Warren Sapp have bought in — that the current plan replicates that of the glory years.
Well, history says that after the 1997 season, Year 2 of the Dungy era when those young Bucs went 10-6 and made the playoffs, the Bucs took a step back to 8-8 and a third-place finish in 1998. And that was with a slew of potential Hall of Famers on the roster and a smothering defense that came off allowing the fewest points in the NFC in ’97.
So what can be expected of the 2011 Bucs, likely the youngest team in the NFL once rosters are finalized soon?
While Joe will cheer and hope for a perfect Bucs season, Joe sees big question marks at linebacker, a team with a ton to prove in its rush defense and pass rush, questionable depth at the skill positions, plus two teams in the division that likely are still better than Tampa Bay.
Thankfully, Josh Freeman is no Trent Dilfer, and Greg Olson is no Mike Shula, which means a hell of a lot. And the Bucs have plenty of playmakers, from Freeman, LeGarrette Blount, Kellen Winslow and Mike Williams, to Aqib Talib and Ronde Barber. But the Bucs don’t feel at all like a team ready to hit the next level up from the high standard of 10-6 set last year, much like their young counterparts in 1998, who needed one more year to win the division.
Coaching will be a big X-factor. Raheem worked miracles last year with an injury-ravaged roster and rookies and scrap-heap players. Joe doesn’t underestimate the ability of Raheem’s staff and leadership, especially with the addition of Keith Millard. Raheem deserved Coach of the Yearfor 2010, but the jury’s still out on his effectiveness as a defensive coordinator.
It’s painful to think of the Bucs taking a step back from 10-6 last year. But Joe suspects that’s where they’re headed.
Joe’s calling a 9-7 record for 2011. Maybe that’s good enough for the playoffs. It often is. The Bucs finish the season in Atlanta, in what should be an extraordinarily meaningful game.