Trading Down For Derek Carr?
March 23rd, 2015
There’s some interesting and wacky stuff going on behind the paywall at ESPN.com.
NFL stats geek John McTigue makes a long case against Derek Carr, the Raiders’ promising young quarterback who started all 16 games last year after being drafted in the second-round of the 2014 NFL Draft.
Of course, his study centers around analysis of the BSPN-invented stat known as “QBR.” The stats nerds assert Carr’s QBR wasn’t good enough — or good enough in college — and he’s doomed to an average NFL career, at best.
University of Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, however, is adored by the stat geeks and they think the Raiders would be wise to deal Carr and draft Mariota. The spreadsheets back it up, they claim.
The Raiders own the No. 4 overall pick. Of course, to ensure they draft Mariota, Oakland would have to trade up for the No. 1 overall pick, which is owned by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Joe likes Carr, and of all the wacky pre-draft quarterback chatter out there, this scenario might be the most intriguing. But Joe remains sickened that the stat nerds are trying to sell this garbage. Carr had a solid rookie season on a lousy team, and he’s a big-time leader in the making. It’s just not grounded in reality that Oakland would attempt this. Then again, it is the Raiders.
To play along, Joe wonders whether Bucs fans would want Tampa Bay to swap first-round picks with Oakland, and pick up a second-round pick and a solid player on the Raiders’ roster.
March 23rd, 2015 at 4:56 pm
Nope
March 23rd, 2015 at 4:57 pm
It’s the Raiders. Do I need to say anything else? The. Raiders.
March 23rd, 2015 at 4:58 pm
wouldnt be against it. cause then you would have to high 2nd round pics a decent qb competition and a top five draft pick. stock up on both sides of the line. it wouldnt be the worst decision.
March 23rd, 2015 at 4:59 pm
Move along… Nothing to see here.
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:02 pm
Yes, it would be the worst decision. Carr showed no signs of being “the guy” last season. None. If he were “all that,” wouldn’t the Raiders have little to no interest in Mariota? If they’re bailing on this kid in year two, what does that tell you? This isn’t rocket science.
Draft Winston, and call it a day. You don’t get chances to draft franchise quarterbacks every year.
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:02 pm
Carr + Mack, they can keep their 2nd, and it’s a deal
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:07 pm
If we’re trading back for a QB then I’d rather go for Blake Bortles. I don’t think the Jags are very high on him. We could swap picks for the first 3 rounds with the Jags plus Bortles. One of my old buddies happens to work in the scouting department for the Bucs and kept telling me last year it was Evans or Bortles, Bortles if he fell. Which he did not. The Bucs really wanted him last year (despite Joe’s lobbying for Manziel and the occasional bone thrown to Bridgewater).
As for this year. He said it’s too close to call but they are essentially looking at possible second rounders and beyond at this point. Everything is very tight lipped this year.
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:08 pm
Was hoping on a Carr or Bridgewater selection last year…Carr especially got consistently better as the year went on and it was obvious in the late season that he had his O-line’s respect and command….Joe the scenario you concluded with above, a promising young QB, the #4 instead of the #1, and a 2nd rd pick?? THATS’S CALLED CASHING IN. GO BUCS!!
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:10 pm
I like Carr but no way do you take him over Jameis Winston.
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:10 pm
Only if Winston fell to the 4th spot. Then we would be assured a great QB would develop out of the two….and of course Glennon would probably be traded.
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:13 pm
May 1st can’t get here fast enough…. I can see where the Bucs are in what could be a bad situation…. Bucs draft QB, Qb does not live up to the hype, Lovie gets fired (finally) and next HC doesn’t want whoever gets drafted this year…. All I truly believe will happen if Winston is the pick…
That said, Carr would be interesting…. I am for someone with NFL experience over an unknown risk out of college!
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:13 pm
Oakland is building their offense around Carr, so I don’t think they are ready to bail on him.
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:17 pm
Dumb idea. Lets hope Licht isn’t that naive.
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:17 pm
Derek Carr’s YPA last year, 5.46
Blaine Gabbert’s YPA his rookie year, 5.36
I’m not saying Derek Carr is gonna be as bad as Gabbert, but everyone (Raider fans in particular) acting like he’s an elite, franchise QB are a bit out to lunch. In fact for fun check out Glennon’s first 16 games stat wise versus Carr. Might be surprised.
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:17 pm
On the other hand, if Coach Smith wants an Eagles and now Raiders ‘fast break’ offense, then he can look at what the Raiders were able to do with a rookie who does not have drop back passing experience. Carr worked out of the shotgun in college like Mariota.
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:19 pm
If we can get Ray Guy too, I’d do it. Can’t have too many punters (apparently).
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:27 pm
Trade back to about 15 and you can still get Winston
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:29 pm
Please no. I wish they would just turn in the card with Jameis Winston on it now.
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:29 pm
Silly season…
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:30 pm
Trade a second rd QB (the 4th overall QB drafted) to move up and take the first overall qb in the draft? How is that a win for the Bucs? The Raiders would have to give up at least 2 first rd picks along with Carr for that to even be worth listening to.
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:32 pm
J
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March 23rd, 2015 at 5:33 pm
YES, I wanted Bucs to draft Carr,, I hope this happens.
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:34 pm
I agree it’s pretty much nonsense, but that was still fun to stop and think about for a moment.
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:35 pm
This is spreadsheet bafoonerry…and I consider myself a spreadsheeter. It’s impossible for any data-oriented analyst to feel confident about a projection of MM. He plays in a very unique system to which there is no reasonable comparison. I’m not knocking MM, I’m knocking the fool who thinks quantitative modeling should be applied to a player in a system as extreme as Oregon’s is.
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:37 pm
I would do it
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:39 pm
Jack Says:
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:17 pm
On the other hand, if Coach Smith wants an Eagles and now Raiders ‘fast break’ offense, then he can look at what the Raiders were able to do with a rookie who does not have drop back passing experience. Carr worked out of the shotgun in college like Mariota.
————-
Did Carr run a regular spread offense in college or a spread-option like Mariota?
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:40 pm
There more I read the comments on this website, the more amazed I am at the lack of intelligence that exists in this community. It kinda reminds me of the line from Men In Black that went, “a person is smart but people are dumb.”
No. Hell no. No, no no. However you want to slice it, the number one pick in an NFL draft is a valuable commodity and not one that you just give away for litte of value.
Get over your hatred for Jamies Winston. He’s the pick. Deal with it or go root for whoever ends up drafting Mariota, and then check back with us in three years when his coaching staff is fired and that franchise is begging Chip kelly to take him of off thier hands.
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:41 pm
Granted Carr played on a bad team, but he was bad as well. The only thing he did well was avoid mistakes. He did that by being extremely conservative in his play. If you are high on Carr, you HAVE to be even more optimistic about Glennon who put up much better stats while playing conservative.
Carr could be a good QB one day, but nothing about his rookie season says he is capable of being a good QB.
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:45 pm
LOL@Chef Paul…who’s not a chef at all.
That was hilarious man.
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:47 pm
Carr over Winston??
“What are you people on…. dope?” Mr. Hand -Fast Times at Ridgemont High.
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:49 pm
I’m glad everybody agrees about this…
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:49 pm
I would jump on that deal in a heartbeat
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:55 pm
To waterboy – correct – Carr ran a spread offense.
New OC at Oakland comes from Kelly and the Eagles. Looks like they plan to bring the Eagles Offense to Oakland.
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:57 pm
I vote no. I do believe Carr will be at least an average quarterback in the league. I believe Winston will have a higher ceiling. Winston for Carr and a draft choice?… I say “NO DEAL HOWIE (MANDEL)”…lol.
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:57 pm
Ridiculous. But dumb enough for the Raiders to offer and the Bucs to accept.
March 23rd, 2015 at 5:59 pm
This is the first overall pick we’re talking about. Give us Carr, their first, second, and next year’s first and second. Throw in Penn and their next best lineman. They will still be the Raiders so there’s a good chance those will be high picks anyways. Maybe even #1 overall and we can swindle them all over again.
March 23rd, 2015 at 6:02 pm
I just took a look at Glennon 2013 year and Carr and they are pretty similar. I do think the Bucs in 2013 were a better overall team than last years Raider team. Not by much but definitely by the small difference in QB stats.
No thanks DRAFT JAMEIS NOW.
March 23rd, 2015 at 6:07 pm
For Derek Carr, a swap of number 1’s, this year’s number 2 and next year’s number 1 from Oakland… I’d take that deal.
March 23rd, 2015 at 6:11 pm
I think some of you guys overvalue the #1 pick. It’s a single 1st round draft pick. We’ve seen some monster trades over the years, Hershel Walker, Ricky Williams, RG3….but these trades are the “once a decade” reality check. They are not the norm! I’d be shocked if anything close to the RG3 deal is even offered for another 5 years, at least.
RG3 was the reality check that will bring GM’s back to Earth for another 10 years.
March 23rd, 2015 at 6:13 pm
Nope. Jameis or Harry and ’87 are going to burn down OBP
March 23rd, 2015 at 6:15 pm
You’re damn right Harry. Darn tootin’. Bring your lighters.
March 23rd, 2015 at 6:17 pm
and the industrial sized container of lighter fluid…..be smart
March 23rd, 2015 at 6:18 pm
’87, I’m bringing a MF flamethrower. I want that idiot Lovie to know we are not f-king around, lol
March 23rd, 2015 at 6:20 pm
Carr, Mack, Penn & 1st, 2nd & 3rd……2015 & 16 & 17……do it!!!
March 23rd, 2015 at 6:23 pm
Id be all for it. Derek Carr along with 1st 2nd 3rd for this and next year
March 23rd, 2015 at 6:26 pm
Carr + Mack + 2nd round pick + next year’s 1st round pick – then we are in the ballpark to merit consideration. That’s two high 1sts and two high 2nds for the #1 overall pick. Less than Washington paid for RG3 with the 2nd pick in the draft.
Actually – On 2nd thought – HELL NO.
March 23rd, 2015 at 6:28 pm
I’ll 9 picks for GMC.
March 23rd, 2015 at 6:37 pm
@Pickgrin,
Glad u came to your senses. Just say NO, HELL NO!
Teams don’t get a chance very often to draft a franchise QB.
March 23rd, 2015 at 6:39 pm
No offense to Carr but Glennon is averaging over 50 YPG more behind a worse OL without an OC.
Thanks but no thanks
March 23rd, 2015 at 6:50 pm
WS99 Says:
March 23rd, 2015 at 6:28 pm
“I’ll 9 picks for GMC”
Ha ha ha it was only a matter of time.
March 23rd, 2015 at 6:52 pm
I won’t address how stupid that sounds or even the fact that we passed on him for josh mccown last year. Trade the known for the unknown, picking MM first overall is one thing but trading up to do it after taking one high in the draft the year before is beyond insane especially when your team sucks like we do
March 23rd, 2015 at 6:53 pm
SMH at posters again. Winston is the highest rated QB prospect over the last 10 years outside of Luck. Carr may turn out to be a decent player, but you don’t give away Winston when you have an opportunity like this. So sick of the anti Winston crowd saying the same things over and over. He is a stud prospect and everyone who has a freaking clue knows this. Every mock draft out there says it’s Winston too. If you want To trade down or draft Mariota you are either uninformed or a complete fool. Stop embarrassing yourselves.
March 23rd, 2015 at 7:13 pm
87
Channelling my inner Jimmy Johnson. The Hershall Walker trade gave Dallas 3 championships and I don’t know how many HOFs. Not that Lovie could do the same but I’ll just put it out there. Lol.
March 23rd, 2015 at 7:17 pm
@Bucfan4life couldn’t have said it any better…well maybe a few F-bombs in there
March 23rd, 2015 at 7:33 pm
Carr and mack plus there first done deal!
March 23rd, 2015 at 7:50 pm
Feel says that Carr mostly got garbage time production.
March 23rd, 2015 at 7:55 pm
Tedford doesn’t find this story entertaining! 😉
March 23rd, 2015 at 8:01 pm
Bucfan4life
“Winston is the highest rated QB prospect over the last 10 years outside of Luck.”
Where did you get this ratings information?
I do not care which or none of the QB’s that we may draft or trade for. Because if we do not have an average Oline it won’t matter, we again will not be able to run, or create this “pocket” our pro pocket passer needs to be successful. We have seen the combine times and we have seen their visit to one buc place. with this information and the way our Oline looks as of now we need a fast mobile QB not a lumbering slow one. we will need a quick relase QB not a long drawn out relase QB. I know he is the best QB in yada yada yada… they say the same thing every draft.
I am all for building our Oline and moving forward. Kotter will be a major improvement over the past several OC’s we have had. We have options of taking a Qb who has played lights out in the College football won a lot of games. He is only 2 years into playing at the college level. Who knows if he will get better in the NFL.
Go Bucs
March 23rd, 2015 at 8:14 pm
Lol. Sorry Rusty but you need to do a little research.
March 23rd, 2015 at 8:15 pm
RustyRhinos Says:
March 23rd, 2015 at 8:01 pm
Bucfan4life
“Winston is the highest rated QB prospect over the last 10 years outside of Luck.”
Where did you get this ratings information?
—————————————-
That’s been said by more than one analyst…don’t let the player hate consume logic.
March 23rd, 2015 at 8:17 pm
Glennon will be successful with a line! Draft Mariota and trade him to the highest bidder. Winston will bust like the rest and throw record interceptions in the process
March 23rd, 2015 at 8:21 pm
Save it Joe. Apparently to some fans on this site Carr is a bum simply because he wasn’t able to lead his crappy team to a winning record. Lmao.
March 23rd, 2015 at 8:25 pm
The next wacky thing we will hear is that Brett Favre is in talks with the Bucs about coming out of retirement.
March 23rd, 2015 at 8:25 pm
What will happen to this site when Glennon isn’t traded and beats out the rapist for the starting job? Then this site will be more entertaining…1 year wonder at #1 pick? lmao
March 23rd, 2015 at 8:27 pm
Does this mean we get Donald Penn back? 🙂
I was always a fan of Penn’s. Too bad he’s getting a little too old for more than a short term fix.
March 23rd, 2015 at 8:27 pm
I think it’s difficult to be totally opposed to a trade without knowing the deal….everything has a price and that includes our #1….If the right players & picks are offered….who is to say that we shouldn’t…..not even Joe could argue with that…..How about Andrew Luck & Indys 1st for the next three years?
Sure….rediculous…but sure is saying no to a trade without knowing the terms.
March 23rd, 2015 at 8:29 pm
so is saying no
March 23rd, 2015 at 8:29 pm
lol the Glennon fans.
I’m not in the trade Glennon club, but he ain’t no Jameis.
People had best stop calling him rapist when he’s not. It makes them look like fools at this point. Anyone that read the case knows he’s innocent, but carry on and be a fool.
March 23rd, 2015 at 8:30 pm
Glennon will not beat out Jameis. Hell, even if theoretically Mike put in a ridiculous amount of work this offseason and showed Winston up during Trading Camp and the Preseason, no way Lovie sits his No.1 Overall pick, we all know how stubborn he is with HIS GUYS .(McClown, Ghost, Collins, Sims, etc.)
March 23rd, 2015 at 8:42 pm
The criminal had 1 good year in 2013 and people still think he is untouchable lmao i wish i could see all of your faces when the pick is traded or Marcus is selected. Winston is not HIS guy.
March 23rd, 2015 at 9:09 pm
Do it!
Carr is going to be elite, and this would net us multiple picks. We could get the QB and address all the other needs this year.
March 23rd, 2015 at 9:18 pm
When I said yes, I assumed more picks would be included as well
March 23rd, 2015 at 9:19 pm
Carr might be good but he is not Winston. Any idea of trading is just crazy. Think about it, why would Oakland do that trade unless they feel Winston or Mariota are clearly better than Carr and a top draft pick. If that is the case, then why would we sign up for that? That kind of thinking defies logic.
March 23rd, 2015 at 9:21 pm
Carr, a center and 2 picks. I like that deal. We’d fill 4 needs.
March 23rd, 2015 at 9:23 pm
Carr is a developmental project…with his first year behind him. He was drafted by the worse possible team for a QB to go to.
And he still played okay for a rookie.
To say Winston is netter is dumb. Winston is unproven. Hasn’t done anything in the NFL yet. No games played. We don’t honestly know if he’ll do well.
March 23rd, 2015 at 9:24 pm
So Bonzai thinks that Carr is “Elite” – but Winston is not worth having. Interesting….
March 23rd, 2015 at 9:43 pm
Draft JW. Start MG8.
March 23rd, 2015 at 9:59 pm
Joe was a Johnny Football sniffer. So much for Joe’s acumen
March 23rd, 2015 at 10:17 pm
Just why would the Rrrrrrrrrrrraiders throw Carr away for Winston?
Could it be that they KNOW Winston is better than Carr? Not in Bonzai’s World.
March 23rd, 2015 at 10:27 pm
Oh nevermind I had to re-read the article again. They want Super Mario.
March 23rd, 2015 at 11:26 pm
QBR is a worthless stat. Dan orlovsky helped lead the lions to a 0-16 record in 2008 with a QBR rating that was higher than Ben Roethlisberger’s QBR, who led his team to a 12-4 record and a super bowl win.
March 24th, 2015 at 12:36 am
true good point kuput
March 24th, 2015 at 7:59 am
Do you think JW would fall to 4th if we did it?
March 24th, 2015 at 9:00 am
Not really sold 100% on either guy at the top of the draft. Didn’t really watch much Raiders, but if he you see enough to think he could be a solid starting QB then yeah I’d go for it.
March 24th, 2015 at 9:08 am
I myself would like the trade. Getting Carr and the 4th overall and a 2nd would help a lot.
Carr and take kevin white at 4 and then draft 2 de in the 2nd round. Or oline.. would be a big step toward a dominant offense