Thou shalt not run on me.

A guy who has a lot of experience working for NFL teams as a data analyst and sometimes coach decided to bring facts to the table. And it seems teams can’t run on the Bucs.

Joe doubts few if anyone reading this here corner of the interwebs ever heard of Ryan Paganetti. Joe didn’t either until somehow his Twitter handle floated into Joe’s Twitter timeline.

Paganetti worked for the Jags, Raiders and he was with the Eagles when they won their most recent Super Bowl. Paganetti was a football analytics leader.

In other words, he’s a stathead.

Paganetti this week put out some data he cobbled together on NFL teams. It seems the success rate of NFL teams running on the Bucs is very bad. Well, if the success rate is bad, that means the “fail rate” is high, no?

In fact, no run defense in the NFL forces opposing running attacks to fail more than the Bucs. Teams have the lowest success rate against KitKat-eating Bucs coach Todd Bowles’ run defense (34 percent) of anyone in the league.

Or, the fail rate running against Bowles’ defenses is 66 percent.

So, what is success rate? In the number of times an offense runs a successful play, or in this case, a successful run play.

A successful play is defined by the following:

• 1st Down: Gains at least 40 percent of the yards needed to convert a first down.
• 2nd Down: Gains at least 60 percent of the remaining yards needed to convert.
• 3rd or 4th Down: Gains 100 percent of the remaining yards needed to convert for a first down or score a touchdown.

So, long story short, teams just do not run on Bowles’ defense.

Bowles (finally) fixed his defense and he still may get fired.

NFL teams defending under center runs through week 8: pic.twitter.com/KxThyvwC7r

— Ryan Paganetti (@RyanPaganetti) November 4, 2026