A Jimmy Garoppolo Standard For Baker Mayfield
February 26th, 2024
So the Buccaneers allegedly have begun contract negotiations with Baker Mayfield. What’s the starting point?
Former Jets personnel chief, linebackers coach and ex-Bucs scout Pat Kirwan dove into that subject this week on SiriusXM NFL Radio.
Mayfield’s camp, per Kirwan, will be pointing to the contract of Giants QB Daniel Jones, who everyone knows is way overpaid at $40 million per season.
On the Bucs front, Kirwan said he expects Tampa Bay’s opening serve to be Jimmy Garoppolo money, as in the three years, $72 million Garoppolo got from the Raiders a year ago.
Obviously, that’s a wide gap, but Kirwan explains that’s how it goes routinely.
He said both sides might start with putting a real football comparison on the table.
“What player? You don’t even have to know the numbers. Tell me talent-wise who [Mayfield] relates to,” Kirwan said.
That name, in some cases, may not be revealed until both sides have a “framework meeting,” Kirwan said. That refers to the dollars and structure of a contract desired before digging into football comparisons and value.
Kirwan said one huge question is whether Mayfield has told his agent to get a deal done with the Bucs because he doesn’t want to play elsewhere. Of course, Mayfield’s camp won’t reveal that. But if that’s a reality, then it affects negotiations, Kirwan said.
He added that a big question for Bucs GM Jason Licht revolves around irking Mayfield and changing his desire.
“Do I think that if this guy gets to free agency and we don’t get a deal done at the Combine, is he going to be a problem to sign?” Kirwan asked as if he were talking to Licht.
Joe will add that the hidden X factor is Team Glazer. How much do they want to see Year 2 of the Baker Mayfield era?
The Garoppolo comparison is interesting. He had a great track record of winning, but he doesn’t have the arm talent of Mayfield and was older when he signed with the Raiders.
February 26th, 2024 at 11:34 pm
A few months ago, I would have thought 30 million per year was outrageous for Mayfield, based on Geno Smith @ 25 mil. Well, that thinking has been steamrolled. I’m guessing he’s gonna be up around 35-40. Mayfield is better than Geno Smith and that playoff win probably earned him another 5 million per year. The perception of him as a guy who can win you playoff games makes a big difference.
February 26th, 2024 at 11:58 pm
Well it all makes sense now, why We let Steve Young , Doug Williams and Trent Dilfer, walk and then they all went on and won Super Bowls for other teams ! It we are going to pay a mediocre, sub .500 journeyman quarterback a kings ransom, we sure couldn’t afford to pay Super Bowl winning quarterbacks! That probably also explains why they won’t play Kyle Trask , I just wonder who he’s going to win a Super Bowl for? Oh well , it’s the Bucs way!
February 27th, 2024 at 12:00 am
Jimmy G. and the newly improved Geno Smith are legitimate comparables.
spotrac puts Mayfield’s estimated value at $27.1M – and they are usually pretty close to reality with their projections.
If the Mayfield camp is insisting on anything close to $40M, I would let Baker test the market where he will find that no team is willing to put up those #s on a multi year deal.
I explained in an earlier post how, for a variety of reasons, there are really only 1 or 2 – maybe 3 teams at most that would be interested in signing Mayfield to a big contract as a free agent.
Evans is a whole nother animal. If ME hits the market, he’s highly likely to spark a bidding war.
Hopefully, Baker is willing to sign for $30Mor less and the Bucs can get both BM and ME signed and secured prior to free agency.
But, if Baker’s intention is to get as much $ as possible – then bite the bullet by signing ME for the $25M+ that he wants and let Baker find out for himself that no team is going to pay franchise tag level $ on a multi year deal for his services….
February 27th, 2024 at 12:10 am
Like Pickgrin mentioned, that sportrac number is legit. Been thinking all along that BM gets closer to 27.1m than 40m and may even get less than 27.
We’ll see.
^^mtn^^
since ’76
February 27th, 2024 at 1:16 am
I havre always agreed with Spotrac as well.
I mean these comps are crazy anyway from 1 year.
Look at Flacco. Had a better record for 2.5 million. I know how old he is etc. just saying they shouldn’t be FOCUSED on Mayfield over Mike.
Joe could probably hit Mike Evans.
February 27th, 2024 at 1:17 am
And I mean JoeBucs Joe.
Flacco only made 2.5 million.
February 27th, 2024 at 5:10 am
If you look at those two signings they both look like bad deals for the teams. Danny Dimes is way overpaid and Jimmy G is getting cut. So should we make the same mistake? Tag him and see how it goes.
February 27th, 2024 at 5:28 am
JL would be smart to lock Baker up before he hits free agency & can start negotiating with other teams. I fully expect that the Falcons would love nothing better than to run the price up on us … just because it’d be a fun thing to do.
Based on Spotrac’s $27.1 mil Market Value, I still think that $25-$30 mil is a valid price range for Baker. With the increase in the salary CAP this year though, it’ll probably be closer to the upper end of that range.
And in Baker’s case, he seems more than willing to bet on himself (which I love BTW). Building in performance incentives that’d increase the value of his contract to say $35 mil or so (like for playing in XXX games, passing for certain stats, leading the team to a certain # of wins & the playoffs, etc) is probably doable in his case. The length of the contract and the guaranteed amount will also speak volumes to Mayfield I’m sure.
February 27th, 2024 at 7:03 am
JD, different owner, different time. Doug Williams was the result of Culverhouse’s cheapness. Steve Young needed a better team than the Bucs could give him. Dilfer absolutely sucked with the Bucs, but was able to manage the offense on a great defensive team in the Ravens. Apples and oranges comparison.
February 27th, 2024 at 7:07 am
I am not promoting trading for Justin Fields but BSPN put out an article the Bucs should trade for Justin Fields. In the article they said Fields has more upside than Mayfield but would cost more than Mayfield. After I looked at Fields contract a trade would only cost them 3.2 mil this year and 25 mil the following year providing Fields doesn’t make the pro bowl. So BSPN evidently talks before research is done.
February 27th, 2024 at 9:06 am
Question:
Spotrac has had Mayfield’s value at $27.1mill for at least a month – well before the increased salary cap was divulged. If 27.1 was “based” on the previous salary cap, wouldn’t Mayfield’s value also increase? Same with Evans who they had listed at ~23mill – shouldn’t Spotrac increase these values ever so slightly?
If so, my haphazard guess since I’m no GM is Evans should now be around 24-25mill, and Mayfield should be around 30.
Just curious since I’m not sure – appreciate any knowledgeable replies!!! 🙂
February 27th, 2024 at 10:52 am
I think 30m/yr is kind of the baseline for Baker’s contract. The remaining questions is the length, i.e. 4 years with a voidable 4th and incentives for getting to the playoffs. I don’t see 40m/yr, which was ludicrous on part of the Giants for Jones, who has grossly underperformed. We need Baker to stay, Bowles to go and we need an offensive HC to take Tampa back to Disneyworld. Go Bucs. Cheers.
February 27th, 2024 at 11:17 am
People still hating on Baker and propping up Trask. That’s so ridiculous. Will it ever end?
February 27th, 2024 at 11:51 am
Whatever happens with Baker, and Evans is fine with me. If they stay great, if not I’ll root for whoever is in a Buc uni. I’m just tired of the speculation to the point of not giving a sh#t anymore.
February 27th, 2024 at 12:03 pm
Baker’s success in leading the Bucs to the Divisional Round has budged the Spotrac estimate from a previous average annual salary of $16.7 million per year to the current market value of $27.1 million per year.
Spotrac estimates Baker will get a 4 year deal worth $108,512,500, ranking the contract as the 23rd most valuable offering in the NFL and as the 18th ranked Quarterback.
Baker’s $4 million base contract for 2023 ranked 419th overall in the NFL and as the 35th ranked quarterback in the league, near rock bottom.
Spotrac selected 4 new quarterback contracts to compare to Baker’s statistics in order to make a a linear regression analysis of all 5 players’ results.
NFL.COM ranks Baker as the #14 quarterback at the end of the regular season.
Spotrac compared him to
– Geno Smith ranked #18
– Derek Carr ranked #21
– Daniel Jones ranked #29 played 6 games before season ending injury
– Jimmy Garoppolo NR – was benched after the Raiders fired head coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler after 6 games. He was ranked the #22 quarterback just before he was benched. He has since been released.
– Geno Smith received his big raise at Seattle after a year under the tutelage of former Bucs offensive – coordinator Dave Canales.
– Jones statistics never warranted the opulent size of his contract.
– Derek Carr received a fat deal from the New Orleans Saints after the Raiders released him.
– Jimmy Garoppolo was only in the 6th game of a 3 year, $72,750,000 contract with the Las Vegas Raiders, including $45,000,000 guaranteed when he was benched. The Raiders released him to save $12 million in cap space.
Key point: None of the compared quarterbacks made the playoffs in 2023. Jimmy Garoppolo (4-2) and Derek Carr (0-1) are the only ones with playoff records.
What makes SPOTRAC’s statistical comparisons bogus is that all 4 quarterback statistics are for the 2022 season. They do not measure their 2023 season results against Baker’s 2023 season. They are comparing apples and oranges.
SPOTRAC’s “market value” should be taken with a grain of salt. Their linear regression is just “number magic” by using statistics from two different years.
February 27th, 2024 at 2:19 pm
If I’m Licht I’m pointing to Mayfields 18th ranked QBR.
February 27th, 2024 at 2:24 pm
Mayfield’s camp, per Kirwan, will be pointing to the contract of Giants QB Daniel Jones, who everyone knows is way overpaid at $40 million per season.
On the Bucs front, Kirwan said he expects Tampa Bay’s opening serve to be Jimmy Garoppolo money, as in the three years, $72 million Garoppolo got from the Raiders a year ago.
———
So both sides are wanting his contract based on a terrible contract signed by a bust… Says a lot.
February 27th, 2024 at 2:25 pm
RGA Says:
February 27th, 2024 at 2:19 pm
If I’m Licht I’m pointing to Mayfields 18th ranked QBR.
——–
And 20th in scoring.
And last amongst all QB in scoring and passing yards amongst all QBs who started 17 games.
February 27th, 2024 at 2:50 pm
“D-Rok Says If 27.1 was “based” on the previous salary cap, wouldn’t Mayfield’s value also increase?”
Yes, think the 27.1 number came out when they anticipated the cap was going to be about 243; 255 that was a bit of a surprise.
So that would add what, about 6-7% or 1.2-2m
^^mtn^^
since ’76
February 27th, 2024 at 2:52 pm
1.5-2mil
February 27th, 2024 at 4:37 pm
Go Bucs! I think it’s stupid everybody bags on Baker. He’s much better than people think of him. I’m remembering at least 2 game winning TD’s last year that were dropped by WR’s and not his fault, not to mention he threw that improbable TD against Texans to go in front and the defence lost that game. Yeah that last year at the Browns went bad, shoulder injury and he wasn’t good at the Panthers, news flash no-ones good without a decent o-line and receiving core. Rams went OK. Then he takes the Bucs to the playoffs, out of nowhere, when everybody is writing them off. His connection with ME is great, and he’s a ‘Team Guy’ honestly he’s worth more than people think. 30m isn’t unreasonable when you look at the FA QB market. Who else is there with a better record, his age and his price range? Keep Evans and try to upgrade that o-line and watch them go to the playoffs again. The increase in CAP and a savvy deal will get them both. Reports are he wants ME as part of his negotiations. Let’s hope that’s true. Go Bucs!!
February 27th, 2024 at 5:36 pm
“Ralph Cramden Says: Spotrac compared him to Geno, Carr, Daniels and Jimmy G.” & “Key point: None of the compared quarterbacks made the playoffs in 2023.”
Since the Flintstones were based off the Honeymooners Fred (Ralph), do you and Barney Rubble anticipate signing BM before he tests FA? I hope Barney can work out the numbers so all 5 FAs are retained -he’s great with cap & contracts. 😉
Seriously tho, Carr & Geno (so far) are the only ones who you could say lived up to their contracts. One could also argue that Carr’s contact was a bit high too.
Playoff appearances need context, especially for example when Carr was in the same division as Mahomes.
You make some good points but you haven’t convinced me to take sporttrac with a grain of salt.
^^mtn^^
since ’76
February 27th, 2024 at 6:04 pm
Rod Munch, I say list them. All quarterbacks that started all 17 games and their stats proving Baker was last and where you got the list. Any body can just spout off bs. Prove it.
February 27th, 2024 at 6:48 pm
The starting point should be the guy who pushed him out of cleveland and Baker has massively out played Depervert Watson and 250 m!illion guaranteed.
February 27th, 2024 at 6:51 pm
A lot of the haterz have wide ranging hidden agendas.
February 27th, 2024 at 6:54 pm
Good catch Ralphie. Spottrac is Crow burd do doo
February 27th, 2024 at 6:57 pm
Justin Fields is 11-29 and never been to the playoffs. Run the other way.
February 27th, 2024 at 7:09 pm
Rod munckin says that phrase is absolutely senseless I read that 3 times WTF r u talking about as usual.18th-qbr,20th scoring but last in scoring&pass yards against all qb’s this season.u r a complete useless moron & go FUYS
February 27th, 2024 at 7:19 pm
So let’s drop all the he said she said he seems to excel in the most needed times as in the playoffs & I have to say that perfect passer rating in GB was such a telling story when he is on no pain on the field that seems like when he has ups& downs if he is healthy he plays like a villain when he is not healthy it shows a bit but what QB doesn’t show signs when hurt for instance against jags Trevor looked below average same as purdy,Jackson,Smith I can keep going but u get the point.we shud see his price tag will be rite where it needs to at the end of the day
February 28th, 2024 at 10:47 am
My point for asking the ranking list was I am sure there are very few on it and are the absolute everyone agrees top quarterbacks in the league. The be last among that group is not a bad thing if you’re better than 30 or so other starters around the league and every single available replacement if Baker walks.
February 28th, 2024 at 11:40 pm
I say we get the Saints to fire JD STILLS and add his tiny salary to Baker’s! 🤑
February 29th, 2024 at 12:00 am
RGA says:If I’m Licht I’m pointing to Mayfields 18th ranked QBR.
No way the BUCS GM is pointing to Baker’s “QBR” that fantasy geek BS. He won’t because:
A. QBR is B’s, especially the NFLs and ESPN’s ( it’s why the top two QBR QBs both crapped themselves in the playoffs…QBR means squat)
B. If he was going to pull stats he’s got his own guys for that.
C. He wants to resign Baker so noting that Baker was a top ten QB this season, in reality, is a better route to go.
D. He’s smart enough to know that the top QBs in the league were all in the playoffs this year, including Baker( and the #s easily bear that out)
E. He’s got enough integrity not try to lie and skew a dialog by spitting out B’s to supposedly support a, dumba** at best, “point of view” like you’re doing.
F. He, unlike you, knows losing Baker is very bad and losing Baker and being beat by him and another team next year instead of trying to make another playoff run with this gang of mutineers, is just stupid.
February 29th, 2024 at 12:05 am
Rod munch appears to be just that …what an absolute idiot! Dude can’t really be that dumb, he’s got to be jerkin chains lol. I’ve never seen so many stupid statements…not even from 6th graders.
February 29th, 2024 at 3:59 pm
Anything over 35 a year and this team will have peaked last year (for the 3-4 years of the contract), because they won’t have any money to add / keep the pieces they need.