With the not-so-shocking news this morning that police in Texas have identified Bucs cornerback Aqib Talib as a “person of interest” in a disturbing domestic dispute where witnesses claim Talib tried to pistol whip and then shoot another man, it’s a good thing for Talib there is currently no CBA.

(Had there been a CBA, perhaps Talib would be at One Buc Palace working out and away from this mess back home?)

Since there is no CBA, the player conduct policy of the NFL is out the window. But NFL warden commissioner Roger Goodell has claimed he can still rule despite the players being locked out and no CBA in place.

Greg Aiello, spokesman for the NFL, e-mailed the Tampa Tribune Monday morning and it seems as if the NFL is trying to have things both ways.

“The conduct and drug policies are currently suspended,” Aiello said in an email to The Tampa Tribune on Monday. “However, any violations of law that occur during the work stoppage will be reviewed for potential discipline.”

That is consistent with statements NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell made last week during the NFL owners’ meetings.

“The Personal Conduct Policy continues,” Goodell said. “It applies to everybody in the league. I don’t know how it would apply to the players under this circumstance, but it’s something I feel strongly about, that we owe to our fans.”

So what does this tell Joe? That with a new CBA in place, the owners are likely going to demand that language be included that all player conduct policies would be retroactive for the time during the lockout and that Talib will have to go to the principal’s office in New York to pay a visit to Goodell.

Of course, the word out of Dallas regarding Aqib Talib’s possible role in firing shots at some dude that repeatedly mistreated his sister is very troublesome.

It makes trying to decapitate Donald Penn with a deadly weapon seem tame.

But with the NFL locking out the players, fans and media have been led to believe that the behavior clauses in players’ contracts don’t apply during a lockout, drug tests, off-the-field issues, etc.

So barring Talib serving time for allegedly shooting at a guy, the Bucs’ season wouldn’t miss a beat where Talib is concerned.

Joe never thought he’d write this; but perhaps the lockout was a blessing.

Bucs cornerback Aqib Talib is named by police in Texas as a “person of interest” in a shooting.

Per the Dallas Observer, Talib was involved in an ugly domestic incident last week.

After a March 21 altercation involving his sister, his mother, his sister’s boyfriend, two guns and at least five shots fired, former local high school football star and Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ cornerback Aqib Talib is a “person of interest” on a Garland Police Department incident report and, pending an investigation, could be arrested and charged with anything from discharging a firearm within a municipality (class A misdemeanor) to aggravated assault with a deadly weapon (second-degree felony).

According to a GPD initial report about the incident and two sources familiar with the case Talib allegedly attempted to pistol-whip his sister Saran’s boyfriend, Shannon Billings, and then, after a struggle, used his mother Okolo’s pistol and fired several shots at Billings as he fled the scene on foot.

“The investigation is ongoing,” Garland Police Department administration supervisor Captain Patrick McCulley told the Observer on Friday. “But I can confirm that Mr. Talib is a person of interest in the case.”

Joe hates to say it but something like this coming from Talib isn’t exactly shocking. Surprising, but not shocking.

Looks as though the Bucs will find out first hand if Roger Goodell can actually enforce his player conduct policy during a lockout as he claims he can.

Per the police report via the Dallas Observer, it paints a disturbing image.

According to the report, Billings said Aqib produced a handgun and “attempted to strike him in the face.” During the ensuing skirmish Talib dropped the gun and Billings picked it up and began runnning, prompting Okolo to produce a gun and fire three shots toward him. Billings told police that Talib then took Okolo’s gun, said “I’ll shoot him” and fired at least two shots before Billings safely ducked into nearby woods. Neighborhood witnesses corroborated Billings’ story.

If you don’t have NFL Network by now, Joe doesn’t know what to say. You really might have to put an asterisk on your man club membership card. It’s really that simple. Their programming is phenomenal.

Just break the grip already from the demon cable company that is ok with denying you joy.

Coming on April 30 on NFL Network, per SI.com scribe Peter King, the network will air a series counting down the top 100 players of today, as voted by current NFL players.

Is LeGarrette Blount the second rookie in the top 100? Does Aqib Talib get any love, and more love than Ronde Barber? Do the players think Donald Penn is the best left tackle in the NFL? Does Josh Freeman make the cut?

Joe’s counting on some very telling surprises. And Joe’s already got a friendly wager, albeit small, on Blount making the cut.

Joe loves the draft as much as any red-blooded American male who regularly watches the NFL Network. But after a point, all the talk about 40-times and playing hopscotch with cones wears on Joe pretty quick.

That would be roughly 50 minutes before the Great American Track Practice NFL Combine begins.

So for all the talk about a guy’s shuttle speed and long jump ability and his all-important, all too rehearsed 15-minute interviews at the Great American Track Practice NFL Combine, it is sometimes the little things that makes the biggest differences.

Take LeGarrette Blount. The Bucs rookie standout running back was brought into One Buc Palace last year for what was basically an all-day interview. In a story about how worthless Pro Days are, Peter Schrager of FoxSports.com got a neat nugget from Bucs rock star general manager Mark Dominik about what others would perceive as trivial but what eventually sold Dominik on Blount.

“We had about eight players eating lunch together at the facility, and after the meal, only one of the guys took the time to go back into the kitchen and thank all the chefs. That kid was LeGarrette Blount.”

Blount, of course, was suspended for much of his 2009 senior season at Oregon for punching an opposing player in the face on national television.

“Thanking the chefs showed us something about LeGarrette and his values. We knew that he’d appreciate the guy taping him up in the training room, the scout breaking down the film. We knew he was a guy we could see in our system.”

As Joe has stated before, the combine judges which players were good track athletes, not football players. Pro Days are little more than scripted rehearsals. It is when a player comes into a team’s facility for a day is when the real business of judging if the guy can be a value on Sunday afternoons takes place.

Even if that edge is with a couple of cooks.

In large part thanks to the disaster of signing Kardashian-chasing Derrick Ward, Bucs rock star general manager Mark Dominik may not be as likely to splurge on free agents.

In recent years, since Bucs rock star general manager Mark Dominik got burned by free agency (and nearly roasted out of a job when he almost landed Facestomper Haynesworth), Dominik has seen the light and has pretty much avoided free agency like a breakout of the hives.

And why go after high-priced, often over-the-hill free agents? The Steelers have built a dynasty doing without them. Packers general manager Ted Thompson loathes free agents. Seems as though the Packers have done OK.

But in a recent chat with Raheem Morris, Rick Stroud of the St. Petersburg Times believes the Bucs may be eyeing free agents in the not too distant future.

But after a 10-6 season in which the Bucs narrowly missed the playoffs, and given the production of young stars such as Josh Freeman, Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blount, coach Raheem Morris says it could be time to add free-agent pieces to push Tampa Bay back over the top, especially with about 500 players scheduled to become unrestricted free agents when the lockout ends.

“We wanted to accumulate talent throughout the draft, and it was no different in 2002 and 2001, when our ownership went out and got a Simeon Rice, a Brad Johnson or a Keenan McCardell (in free agency) in order to push that team over the top and help the draft classes of Derrick Brooks, Warren Sapp, John Lynch and Ronde Barber,” Morris said at the owners meetings last week in New Orleans. “We may be nearing that plateau. As soon as the free agency season is able to be open, some of those discussions will be more realistic. You’re talking about adding components, getting the right guy, a good fit.”

After Dominik’s first foray into free agency in his first few months on the job (Mike Nugent, anyone?) Joe believes Dominik won’t go after top-flight, cost-heavy players. Instead, he will look at second tier guys to bolster roster depth and be serviceable starters, not unlike a Sean Jones.

NFL Draft guru Justin “The Commish” Pawlowski, of WDAE-AM 620, recently grabbed some one-on-one time with top defensive end prospect Ryan Kerrigan, the production machine out of Perdue.

And being a multimedia guru, as well, The Commish had his fancy recording equipment on the scene and passed on some fans’ questions to Kerrigan. The DE stud sounds like a mature dude, and we learn that he calls himself “relentless”  and his grandma lives in St. Pete, among other stuff.

Click the arrow to listen, or download here.

[audio: kerrigan.mp3]

Remember, Joe’s draft coverage is just heating up. More to come all week and The Commish will soon kick off the popular Draft Countdown. Also, shoot The Commish your draft questions for his inbox podcast, commish@620wdae.com.

Who better to know a quarterback than a Super Bowl-winning quarterback?

Who better to know a quarterback than a Hall of Fame quarterback?

That’s the case with former Broncos quarterback John Elway. Now a president of the team, Elway attended the NFL owners meetings in New Orleans recently where eye-RAH! Kaufman of the Tampa Tribune decided to corner a number of non-Bucs officials to gauge their take on the Bucs starting quarterback.

Count Elway among those who is impressed.

A first-round pick out of Kansas State in 2009, Freeman said his personal goal is to be compared with the game’s elite quarterbacks – Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees.

Hall of Fame quarterback John Elway already likes what he sees.

“I’m really impressed with Josh Freeman,” said Elway, the new executive VP of the Broncos. “I haven’t met him, but from the way he plays, the Bucs definitely hit on him, that’s for sure.”

Among others Kaufman spoke with was Arizona Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt who claimed Freeman is special because of the way he is clutch late in games.

The interesting thing is that virtually every non-Bucs source eye-RAH! spoke with for the story raved about the way Raheem Morris has handled and nurtured Freeman.

When the 49ers hired Jim Harbaugh to run the team back in January, many Bucs fans began to connect the dots that the 49ers would trade for Bucs backup quarterback Josh Johnson because Johnson started for Harbaugh when the two were at San Diego.

That notion flew in the face of Raheem Morris’ contention that Johnson is a “career backup.”

But it seems Raheem likes Johnson so much that there’s no chance of Johnson getting traded or being usurped by another backup, so claims Disney blogger Pat Yasinskas.

Typing for the Leninites at BSPN.com, Yasinskas claims the Bucs have no interest in acquiring a QB to replace Johnson of the depth chart.

Dylan (Las Vegas)
Pat, any chance the Bucs try to get a verteran [sic] QB as a backup to Freeman?

Pat Yasinskas
I’d like to see that. But my impression is that Raheem likes Josh Johnson a lot, so I don’t think anything will happen.

Could it be that Raheem, in an effort to quash any interest from other teams in Johnson, called Johnson a “career backup” last year on purpose? Joe thinks it is a possibility.

But Joe can’t believe rock star general manager Mark Dominik wouldn’t want to get a veteran backup — you know, a guy who may have played a handful of games — to at least be a No. 3 signal caller.

No one wants to see the Bucs third string quarterback on the field unless it’s special teams. But if a game ever came down to that, who would you have more faith in, Rudy Carpenter or, say, Brady Quinn or (shudder) Kyle Boller or (gasp) J.P. Losman?

NFL Draft guru Justin “The Commish” Pawlowski, of WDAE-AM 620, continues to work night and day on his must-read draft coverage on JoeBucsFan.com, and on the draft page at 620wdae.com.

The Commish talked to possible Bucs DE target Ryan Kerrigan yesterday, as well as tight end prospect Kyle Rudolph out of Notre Dame. Enjoy this story below, including audio of the Rudolph interview. (Kerrigan to come later.)

By JUSTIN PAWLOWSKI

One of the first moves Mark Dominik made as general manager of the Bucs was to trade for Kellen Winslow and make him the highest paid tight end in the NFL.  We’re not three years removed from that day, and the Bucs are interested in another highly touted tight end.

In my Friday interview with Rudolph, who is considered by many including myself to be the top tight end in the 2011 draft, said that the Buccaneers had genuine interest in him.

“I interviewed with the Bucs.  I really like coach Morris and our interview went really well,” Rudolph said.  “I loved his energy and enthusiasm for the game.  I would love to be a Buccaneer.”

Kellen Winslow Jr. is still under contract, but the depth behind Winslow is extremely shaky.  Jerramy Stevens finally wore out his welcome last season and was released, and John Gilmore is a free agent this off-season. Ryan Purvis could be the only depth behind Winslow. which is why the Bucs will be looking to add a tight end some time during this year’s draft.

Rudolph has the ability and talent to be an outstanding threat from the tight end position, but injuries have hurt him the past two seasons at Notre Dame.  He missed the second half of 2010 with a hamstring injury that required surgery. Rudolph says he is at 100 percent and will fully participate in Notre Dame’s April 7 pro day.

“It’s been a long time since I was able to go out and run around like my old self and I feel like I’m back to that point,” Rudolph said about his expectations for his pro day.  “I’m going to do every drill, run routes, and catch balls. I’m definitely excited for it.”

Rudolph’s pro day is as important as any pro day this offseason.  Without being able to workout at the combine, Rudolph has not been able to show off his full talent or show off that he is healthy.

Rudolph would not go into too much detail about future visits or workouts, saying that he is mainly focused on his pro day, and those arrangements would take place after that day.  However, he did confirm that the Bucs assured him they would be there.

Mark Dominik has warned that the Bucs might not be a lock for a defensive player in the first two rounds of this year’s draft. 

Continuing to gather more weapons for Josh Freeman will always be something this Buccaneer regime will look to do.  It should also be noted that Greg Olson, like Jon Gruden, runs a lot of 2-tight-end sets. Depth at that position is extremely important.

If the Bucs are indeed smitten with Rudolph, they might consider drafting him in the first round to secure him.  Waiting until the second round could be too late, considering that Rudolph should end up as a late first round or early second round pick.

Here’s the entire Kyle Rudolph interview: [audio: Rudolph.mp3]

Yeah, Joe went for a playful headline as happy hour awaits this Friday evening.

Per TBO.com, today the Bucs were awarded the 237th pick in the 2011 draft, a seventh-round compensatory selection for losing Will Allen and Jimmy Wilkerson to free agency after the 2009 debacle season.

Somewhere, the unofficial wizard of the seventh round, rock star general manager Mark Dominik, is staring at his draft board like Wile E. Coyote seeing the Road Runner napping.

If you don’t know those characters, well, then Joe doesn’t know what to say.

Is Dominik's next stroke of brilliance letting Barrett Ruud walk? A top NFL.com expert says that's in the cards.

The way Bucs general manager Mark Dominik has handled his first two drafts with the Bucs and the way he has taken to the national media, both with the looks and mannerisms and natural quips of a TV anchorman, Joe dubbed Dominik the rock star of general managers.

Seems someone well-connected and well-respected in NFL circles agrees with Joe.

In a recent article detailing the draft motives of the NFC South teams, NFL.com analyst, Sirius NFL Radio talking head and CBSSports.com expert Pat Kirwan both waxed poetic about Dominik, and indirectly dropped a mini-bomb shell that will likely provoke many shallow-minded Bucs fans to race to Ybor City to tilt a few bottles.

GM Mark Dominik has done a brilliant job in his first two drafts and needs to put another class together. The team got 52 starts from its rookie class a year ago and quickly developed WR Mike Williams, WR Arrelious Benn, S Cody Grimm, DT Gerald McCoy and RB LeGarrette Blount.

It’s no secret a pass rushing defensive end is missing, and should be available with the 20th overall pick. I also hear middle linebacker Barrett Ruud will not be brought back, so a signal-caller who can play the Tampa 2 defense is important. CB Ronde Barber re-signed, but the team must find and develop the 14-year veteran’s eventual replacement.

Whoa, so the Bucs won’t be bringing back Barrett Ruud? This comes as a surprise to Joe. Kirwan kindly gave Joe a few minutes of his precious time at Super Bowl Media Day last month where Ruud was the lone subject Joe discussed with Kirwan and this never came up in conversation.

Joe knows Kirwan is very plugged in with the Bucs — he lives in Naples. Now the puzzle is trying to figure out where Kirwan got his information, from Ruud, from Raheem Morris or perhaps from Dominik himself?

Kirwan does a considerable amount of draft prep and general research by buttonholing general managers and scouts.

Knowing the vast amount of high-level contacts Kirwan has and the amount of insiders he speaks to on a daily basis, this isn’t like some unnamed blogger in Charlotte throwing out wishful thinking.

As for Dominik, if his draft next month is anything close to what he raked in last year, Dominik, to the absolute gall of a few haters, will be around for quite some time.

Back in 2009, Earnest Graham estimated 30 percent of the NFL was using HGH.

For those not bored to tears by the ongoing NFL labor mess, the latest juicy negotiation nugget has the NFL insisting that any new agreement with players include testing for human growth hormone, better known as HGH.

Alex Marvez, of FOX Sports, was on the story yesterday.

HGH is known to help players recover faster. In theory, that faster recovery helps maximize workouts and increase performance, which leads to them getting, bigger, stronger and faster. It’s a wonder drug — not allowed and hard to detect.

Now pundits can argue all day long whether a prolonged lockout would be an edge or a detriment for a young team like the Bucs, compared to other NFL clubs. But if HGH testing hits the NFL, there should be no debate that the Bucs would have an edge with all that youth on their side.

Remember, it was Earnest Graham, in a story Joe sent national, who said 30 percent of NFL players are using HGH.

” …I don’t think a guy would think it’s cheating. No. I mean they know it [is cheating]. But I don’t think it registers. …I would say 30 percent [are using HGH]. I have no idea how to come across it. Not that I’m looking for it. I don’t know anybody. It’s not something that a guy would just, unless you really trust a guy, to open up and talk about. You know what I mean. …I’ve heard a guy talk about HGH but not [that he’s doing it].”Graham went on to say he doesn’t believe  any NFL player would admit to using HGH.

“A lot of guys are kind of proud guys and don’t want to feel like they were cheating. Me, myself. I would feel like I’m cheating,” Graham said.

Joking about his all-but-eliminated role in the Bucs running game Graham joked, “Maybe I’d cover punts better if I was on HGH.”

While Joe’s in favor of HGH testing, Joe finds it interesting that talk of testing comes just as a rookie salary scale might hit the league. Pay the young guys less and take the HGH from the old guys, and you’ve just cut payroll.

Get four tickets to Sunday’s home opener courtesy of Paradise Worldwide Transportation. Click the logo below to find out how.

In recent days, the man’s channel, better known as the NFL Network, has looked at what the Bucs will do in the draft.

In the first video, Charles Davis has a hunch the Bucs will pick up J.J. Watt of Wisconsin, among others, to play defensive end. Davis also offers a sleeper for the Bucs. Joe suggests you monitor the video to find out who that is.

Also, Rick Stroud of the St. Petersburg Times appears with Stacy Dales to discuss the Bucs overall draft plans for next month.

Is this the second manbeast the Bucs snag in the 2011 draft?

It’s a manbeast of a mock draft, and it’s intelligent, focused and full of great insight.

Here’s draft guru Justin “The Commish” Pawlowski’s latest mock draft — 4,500 words for the draft lover in need of a fix. All part of the exclusive draft coverage on JoeBucsFan.com.

1st Round

1. Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton – QB – Auburn
6’5’’ – 248 lbs – 4.59
Needs: CB, DT, DE, WR, QB

Commish’s Take: Despite how great Blaine Gabbert’s scripted pro day was, I’m ok sticking with Newton for the 1st overall pick. The Panthers have been rumored to be choosing among eight prospects for the No.1 pick, but I think it will ultimately come down to Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Marcel Dareus, or trading down. Right now, the Panthers might be the most unpredictable team in this draft.

2. Denver Broncos – Marcell Dareus – DT – Alabama
6’3’’ – 319 lbs – 4.92
Needs: DT, DE, CB, S

Commish’s Take: Mike Mayock said that scouts “everywhere” would consider it an upset if the Broncos passed on Marcell Dareus. I would have to agree with that. First, the Broncos seem ok with their defensive ends. Also, John Fox tends to like bigger defensive tackles in the middle of his defense.

3. Buffalo Bills – Von Miller – OLB – Texas A&M
6’3’’ – 246 lbs – 4.49
Needs: DE, QB, WR, LB

Commish’s Take: Recent criticism of Aaron Maybin by head coach Chan Gailey might be foreshadowing what the Bills will do. I think quarterback and defensive end could also be under consideration, but Von Miller could be the terror off the edge that the Bills thought they had in Maybin.

4. Cincinnati Bengals – Julio Jones – WR – Alabama
6’3’’ – 220 lbs – 4.39
Needs: WR, QB, DT

Commish’s Take: Peter King has recently reported that the Bengals have Julio Jones rated higher on their board than AJ Green. This rumor has since been echoed by many others. The real question will be whether the Bengals take a receiver or a quarterback. I’m of the opinion that the quarterbacks in this draft have way more questions than the receivers. With the Bengals going to a Gruden-run west-coast offense, I think they could eye a Ponder, Kaepernick, or Andy Daulton in the 2nd round and get any of those QBs a receiver to throw to in the 1st.

5. Arizona Cardinals – Blaine Gabbert – QB – Missouri
6’4’’ – 234 lbs – 4.62
Needs: OLB, CB, OT, QB

Commish’s Take: I’ve never seen such an overreaction on Twitter than when Gabbert had his pro day. I think Gabbert is a good quarterback, but to say that his pro day was one of the best pro days ever and that he was a future elite QB because he threw to receivers without a defense is a little ridiculous. Gabbert was best at Missouri with a spread out offense and underneath passes. I see a lot of Missouri’s offense in Arizona’s offense. Downfield accuracy and handling the pressure of a defensive line are Gabbert’s two biggest weaknesses.

6. Cleveland Browns – AJ Green – WR – Georgia
6’4’’ – 211 lbs – 4.50
Needs: WR, DE, OLB, TE, NT

Commish’s Take: There have been a lot of rumblings of the Browns looking to a defensive lineman here because of their shift back to a 4-3 defense with defensive coordinator Dick Jauron. That said, how could two offensive-minded guys in Mike Holmgren and Pat Shurmur pass on a player many believe to be the top offensive player in the entire draft. Green can be an elite receiver very early in his career. As much as the Browns might need a defensive lineman, they could use a big time threat on offense as well.

7. San Francisco 49ers – Patrick Peterson – CB – LSU
6’0’’ – 219 lbs – 4.34
Needs: QB, DE, OLB, CB, S

Commish’s Take: As much as I think Peterson should go before this pick, every time I write out mock draft, I always have him falling to the 49ers lap. I don’t think corners are quite as valuable as they once were in the NFL as they are only involved in about 12-15 plays max a game. The 49ers have a need at corner, so I just can’t see any way that Peterson would get past this pick.

8. Tennessee Titans – Nick Fairley – DT – Auburn
6’4’’ – 291 – 4.87
Needs: DT, CB, QB, OG

Commish’s Take: After grabbing Derrick Morgan last year, the Titans need to address their interior defensive line this year. Fairley is now being labeled as a boom-or-bust prospect. I definitely think Fairley is worth a shot if he falls to the Titans here. If Fairley becomes a “boom,” he could have a similar impact that Albert Haynesworth had on the Titans defense a few years back.

9. Dallas Cowboys – Tyron Smith – OT – USC
6’5’’ – 307 lbs – DNP
Needs: DE, OT, OG, CB, S

Commish’s Take: I thought real hard about a defensive player with this pick, but with Jason Garrett as the head coach and Jerry Jones wanting excitement, I figured the Cowboys would look to protect Tony Romo and give this offense a chance to explode. Smith is a top tackle in this draft and should be able to step in right away and improve the Cowboys poor offensive line.

10. Washington Redskins – Robert Quinn – DE – North Carolina
6’4’’ – 265 lbs – 4.70
Needs: QB, WR, DE, OLB

Commish’s Take: The popular pick for the Redskins has been either a receiver or a quarterback, but the thought of Robert Quinn and Brian Orakpo coming off opposite corners is pretty exciting. Quinn is an outstanding pass rusher and is an immediate upgrade over the departed Andre Carter. There have been reports that some teams are scared of a benign tumor on Quinn’s brain. If both top receivers are off the board, I do think this pick comes down to reaching on a QB or picking a defensive lineman.

11. Houston Texans – Prince Amukamara – CB – Nebraska
6’0’’ – 206 lbs – 4.43
Needs: OLB, DE, CB, WR

Commish’s Take: When I consider options for the Texans, I just continuously go back to how poor their pass defense was in 2010 and the decision becomes quite clear. Sure, a pass rusher would be great, but at this point, Quinn and Miller are gone and one of the top corners is still on the board. Amukamara should be able to step in and start opposite of Kareem Jackson for years to come.

12. Minnesota Vikings – Jake Locker – QB – Washington
6’2’’ – 231 lbs – 4.59
Needs: QB, DE, OT, OG

Commish’s Take: I’m starting to think the Vikings have dug themselves into a little bit of a desperate mess with the 12th pick. I think they are starved for a quarterback, and unless they trade up for Newton or Gabbert, they’ll probably be reaching with the 12th pick. I think the decision comes down to Locker or Mallett. Really, the question is a lack of accuracy vs. bad character. With character being so important in the NFL, I have the Vikings leaning to Locker right now. In the end, I think Mallett might be a better fit for what new Vikings offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave wants to do on offense.

13. Detroit Lions – Da’Quan Bowers – DE – Clemson
6’3’’ – 280 lbs – DNP
Needs: OT, CB, OLB, DE

Commish’s Take: Defensive end isn’t a big need at all for the Lions, but if one of the top players in the draft falls to you with the 13th pick, you have to consider him. Rumors continue to swirl about Bowers’ knee and how he played through injury at the end of last year and was favoring the knee at time. I still point to Bowers’ pro day on April 1st as one of the most important pro days this year. A good and healthy pro day could vault Bowers back into the top 5. For now, I don’t think the Lions would mind putting Bowers on the same defensive line as Ndamukong Suh.

14 St. Louis Rams – Aldon Smith – DE – Missouri
6’4’’ – 263 lbs – 4.78
Needs: WR, TE, DE, DT

Commish’s Take: With the top 2 WRs off the board, I think the Rams will look to improve their defensive line. Corey Liuget or Muhammad Wilkerson make a lot of sense for the defensive tackle position. I have them taking Aldon Smith as a local product who really fits the type of defensive lineman Steve Spagnuolo seeks. If the receivers are gone, I do think this pick could come down to Aldon Smith at end vs. Muhammad Wilkerson inside.

15. Miami Dolphins – Mark Ingram – RB – Alabama
5’9’’ – 215 lbs – 4.62
Needs: RB, OT, NT, QB

Commish’s Take: I would’ve liked the idea of drafting an offensive tackle and moving Vernon Carey inside to guard, but the Dolphins have squashed that idea. Mike Pouncey could be a legitimate option to address the interior of the Dolphins offensive line, but with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams as free agents, the Dolphins might not be able to wait to address their need at running back. Ingram would bring fresh legs, a great work ethic, and leadership to the Dolphins offense. Remember, the Dolphins do not have a 2nd round pick in this year’s draft.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars – JJ Watt – DE – Wisconsin
6’5’’ – 290 lbs – 4.82
Needs: DE, OLB, S, WR, OG

Commish’s Take: I think that Jack Del Rio has fallen into a trap in the past of taking defensive ends with potential as pass rushers rather than just taking the solid player. I think JJ Watt could be very good in the NFL. He is big, strong, and very athletic. I think Watt is a good fit for anyone’s defense, and I’d probably be pretty surprised if he lasted this long, but you never know.

17. N. E. Patriots (via OAK) – Mike Pouncey – OG – Florida
6’5’’ – 303 lbs – 5.28
Needs: DE, OLB, WR, RB, OL

Commish’s Take: You can never discount the connection between Bill Belichick and Urban Meyer. The Patriots have taken a lot of Gators the past few years, what’s one more? The Patriots have needs along their offensive line and Pouncey could help them at guard or center. There aren’t many players right now with more hype than Mike Pouncey.

18. San Diego Chargers – Ryan Kerrigan – DE – Purdue
6’4’’ – 267 lbs – 4.71
Needs: LB, DE, RT, WR

Commish’s Take: Supposedly, the Chargers are in love with Ryan Kerrigan. AJ Smith, their general manager, has only gone to three pro days so far, and Kerrigan’s was one of them. The Chargers have big needs at the linebacker positions, and all signs point to Kerrigan coming in and playing outside linebacker in the Chargers 3-4 defense.

19. New York Giants – Anthony Castonzo – OT – Boston College
6’7’’ – 311 lbs – 5.23
Needs: OT, MLB, OG, DT

Commish’s Take: Tom Coughlin loves his boys from Boston College. Castonzo has tremendous potential as a left tackle in the NFL. He has outstanding body movement and technique. He needs to get his legs stronger, but his work ethic will never be a question, so I have no doubt he’ll improve that strength. The Giants have to find a way to protect Eli Manning.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Cameron Jordan – DE – Cal.
6’4’’ – 287 lbs – 4.78
Needs: DE, LB, OT, OG, speed on offense

Commish’s Take: I think with the 20th pick, the Bucs are at a spot where they just need, and will probably get, one guy to fall to them. The way this mock draft fell out, Cameron Jordan ended up being that guy. What I like about Jordan is that he is big enough to play left defensive end and quick enough off the edge to play right end. The Bucs have always liked versatile defensive linemen and I think Jordan would be one of the ideal picks for the Bucs in this draft. The Bucs say that they aren’t locked into a defensive end, but it would be tough not to be in this draft and with how their ends played last year. With Quinn and Bowers slipping a bit, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Bucs targeted one of those guys, and traded up to ensure they get him. Who knows, Jordan might be that target and he fell right into the Bucs lap in this mock draft.

21. Kansas City Chiefs – Phil Taylor – NT – Baylor
6’3’’ – 334 lbs – 5.20
Needs: OLB, NT, OT, WR, OG

Commish’s Take: The Chiefs have really done a good job of piecing together their team. I love the additions they have made through the draft the past couple years. I think one main need the Chiefs need to address is at nose tackle for their 3-4 defense. They need their Casey Hampton in the middle. Phil Taylor is a mammoth defensive tackle who is also very athletic for his size. I was surprised when people said his stock might fall because he’s mean. I don’t know about you, but I want my 6-3, 334-pound nose tackle to be the meanest player on any field.

22. Indianapolis Colts – Derek Sherrod – OT – Miss. St.
6’5’’ – 321 lbs – 5.21
Needs: OL, CB, LB

Commish’s Take: The Colts have admitted to regretting on passing on an offensive tackle in last year’s draft. I can’t see them making that same mistake twice. The Colts need to do a better job of protecting Peyton Manning and opening holes in the run game. I think Sherrod could come in and start at left tackle for the Colts right away. Sherrod is big and physical, and also equally good in run blocking as he is in pass protection.

23. Philadelphia Eagles – Jimmy Smith – CB – Colorado
6’2’’ – 211 lbs – 4.46
Needs: CB, OT, OG, OLB

Commish’s Take: If we’re speaking of just talent, Jimmy Smith is a top 10 pick. Smith’s character will drop him a bit, but a team with a big need at corner like the Eagles will have to think long and hard about passing on him. Smith and Asante Samuel would give the Eagles a very nice pair of corners.

24. New Orleans Saints – Martez Wilson – LB – Illinois
6’4’’ – 250 lbs – 4.49
Needs: DE, OLB

Commish’s Take: Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams loves to blitz and attack with his linebackers. Martez Wilson might be at his best when asked to blitz. I think the first few rounds will be all about upgrading the defensive front-7 for the Saints. Wilson can play inside or outside linebacker for the Saints with Jonathon Vilma being able to do the same.

25. Seattle Seahawks – Christian Ponder – QB – FSU
6’2’’ – 229 lbs – 4.65
Needs: QB, OG, DE, DT, CB

Commish’s Take: The more I’ve thought about this pick for the Seahawks, the more I’ve realized that if they were to select a quarterback, the best fit would be Christian Ponder. Darrell Bevell has come in as the new offensive coordinator and is installing a west-coast style of offense. Even if Locker was available, I think the Seahawks might pass on the local product and turn towards Ponder. Ponder might be the best fit for a west-coast offense in this draft. He has above average arm strength and outstanding accuracy. He has command of the huddle, and should be able to step in right away and play for the Seahawks.

26. Baltimore Ravens – Justin Houston – DE – Georgia
6’3’’ – 270 lbs – 4.68
Needs: CB, WR(speed), OC, S

Commish’s Take: Sure, the Ravens don’t need a hybrid end/linebacker, but this is what makes the Ravens great. If anyone in this draft compares to Terrell Suggs, it’s Justin Houston. Sergio Kindle has been a problem since they drafted him last year, so why not move on with the big and athletic Houston instead. I think the corners, receivers, and safeties left here would all be reaches. Houston would just add another dynamic talent to the Ravens defense. The biggest concern with Houston is that he needs teachers to get the most out of his potential. I love the Ravens coaches, and what better coaches to have than Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs?

27. Atlanta Falcons – Muhammad Wilkerson – DE – Temple
6’4’’ – 315 lbs – 4.96
Needs: DT, DE, WR, TE

Commish’s Take: I still view Wilkerson as somewhat of a project, but he has been gaining some steam as of late. I think he might just be one of those names that will go a lot earlier than most people think. For now, I have the Falcons finally getting their big body in the middle. Head coach Mike Smith had his best defense in Jacksonville when he had Marcus Stroud and John Henderson in their primes in the middle of his defensive line. I think Wilkerson compares to those players and would really give the Falcons a presence in the middle of their defensive line.

28. New England Patriots – Akeem Ayers – OLB – UCLA
6’2’’ – 254 lbs – 4.80
Needs: see above

Commish’s Take: The Patriots need to find a better rush off the edge. Akeem Ayers isn’t the fastest linebacker in the draft, but he was extremely productive at UCLA and really fits the Patriots 3-4 defense. I think Ayers could be a really solid outside linebacker and leader in the NFL. This is a great value pick for the Patriots at the end of the 1st round after already getting Pouncey earlier.

29. Chicago Bears – Gabe Carimi – OT – Wisconsin
6’7’’ – 314 lbs – 5.27
Needs: OT, OG, WR, DT

Commish’s Take: Is there any worse secret than the Bears needing an offensive tackle? Hell, they need any offensive lineman. Another one of my favorites is Gabe Carimi. The way this draft played out has Carimi falling to the team that could probably use him most. Carimi could step in right away at left or right tackle and be an upgrade for the Bears. I think Carimi will have a very solid career and reminds me a lot of Jon Runyan.

30. New York Jets – Corey Liuget – DT – Illinois
6’2’’ – 298 lbs – 4.99
Needs: NT, DE, CB, WR

Commish’s Take: I think the Jets approach their 1st round pick by trying to address their front 7 on defense. With Phil Taylor and most of the hybrid linebackers gone, this is a good slot for the Jets to bring in Luiget as an end in their 3-4 defense. Rex Ryan was present at Illinois’ pro day and showed a lot of attention to Martez Wilson and Luiget.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers – Danny Watkins – OG – Baylor
6’3’’ – 310 lbs – 5.40
Needs: CB, OT, OG

Commish’s Take: After hoping to reunite the Pouncey brothers, the Steelers still need to upgrade the interior of their offensive line. Danny Watkins is a great story. He was a firefighter who decided late to play football. He filled in for Jason Smith at left tackle after he was drafted and never lost his starting job. Watkins is 27, which might scare some teams off, but he is also ready to come in and contribute right away.

32. Green Bay Packers – Nate Solder – OT – Colorado
6’8’’ – 307 lbs – 5.05
Needs: OT, DE, OLB

Commish’s Take: Last year the Packers got Bryan Bulaga in the first round. With Nate Solder slipping, the Packers could have their two offensive tackles for the next 10 years in back to back drafts. Solder is a converted tight end who should be able to play right or left tackle in the NFL.

Round 2:
1 (33). N. E. Patriots (via CAR) – Mikel Leshoure – RB – Illinois
6’0’’ – 227 lbs – 4.59

Commish’s Take: Benjarvis Green-Ellis was nice last year, but the Patriots need a feature back. Leshoure can carry the ball 20-25 times a game. No more platoon.

2 (34). Buffalo Bills – Ryan Mallett – QB – Arkansas
6’7’’ – 253 lbs – 5.30

Commish’s Take: If the Bills pass ona quarterback in the 1st round, I like Mallett for them in the 2nd. Mallett’s strong arm can throw through the weather and there is nothing in Buffalo that can get him in trouble.

3 (35). Cincinnati Bengals – Colin Kaepernick – QB – Nevada
6’5’’ – 233 lbs – 4.53

Commish’s Take: Jay Gruden gets his quarterback. Gruden should love Kaepernick’s size and athletic ability. If Jay is anything like his brother, Kaepernick will be high on his list.

4 (36). Denver Broncos – Kyle Rudolph – TE – Notre Dame
6’6’’ – 259 lbs – DNP

Commish’s Take: It seemed like John Fox could never find his tight end in Carolina. He addresses that need immediately with Rudolph. Rudolph is a big tight end with great receiving ability.

5 (37). Cleveland Browns – Adrian Clayborn – DE – Iowa
6’4’’ – 281 lbs – 4.83

Commish’s Take: There are a lot of question marks with Clayborn, but he is still a good player with a great work ethic and great leadership skills.

6 (38). Arizona Cardinals – Brooks Reed – OLB – Arizona
6’2’’ – 263 lbs – 4.68

Commish’s Take: Reed has gotten a lot of hype as of late, but I still have him in the 2nd round. The Cardinals miss out on Miller in the 1st round, but still get a threat off the edge here.

7 (39). Tennessee Titans – Andy Daulton – QB – TCU
6’2’’ – 215 lbs – 4.83

Commish’s Take: Daulton might not be the flashiest quarterback, but he could fit just what Mike Munchak wants to do. Daulton could be a very solid pick for a Titans team that needs a quarterback.

8 (40). Dallas Cowboys – Cameron Heyward – DE – Ohio St.
6’5’’ – 294 lbs – DNP

Commish’s Take: Heyward has some injury concerns, but when healthy can be great. He is a perfect fit for a Cowboys defense that might lose Marcus Spears to free agency.

9 (41). Washington Redskins – Jonathon Baldwin – WR – Pitt.
6’4’’ – 228 lbs – 4.50

Commish’s Take: The Redskins miss out on all the top quarterbacks, but still get their big receiver. Baldwin becomes Mike Shanahan’s next Brandon Marshall.

10 (42). Houston Texans – Rahim Moore – S – UCLA
6’0’’ – 202 lbs – 4.62

Commish’s Take: The Texans finish off their secondary with the draft’s top safety. Moore has good instincts and is good in coverage.

11 (43). Minnesota Vikings – Marvin Austin – DT – North Carolina
6’2’’ – 309 lbs – 4.90

Commish’s Take: With Pat Williams on the way out, I think Austin could step right in and the Vikings might not skip a beat on defense.

12 (44). Detroit Lions – Benjamin Ijalana – OT – Villanova
6’4’’ – 317 lbs – DNP

Commish’s Take: With a need at both tackle positions, Ijalana has a good opportunity to step in and play right away for the Lions.

13(45). San Francisco 49ers – Leonard Hankerson – WR – Miami
6’2’’ – 209 lbs – 4.43

Commish’s Take: After missing on the QBs, I think the 49ers would like to get a bigger receiver opposite of Michael Crabtree. Hankerson is big with speed.

14 (46). Denver Broncos (via MIA) – Aaron Williams – CB – Texas
6’0’’ – 204 lbs – 4.52

Commish’s Take: Williams has been mentioned as a corner and a safety. With the Broncos having a need for both positions, Williams would be a nice fit.

15 (47). St. Louis Rams – Torrey Smith – WR – Maryland
6’1’’ – 204 lbs – 4.43

Commish’s Take: The Rams get their receiver in the speedy Torrey Smith. Smith has all the qualities to progress into a true number one receiver.

16 (48). Oakland Raiders – Dontay Moch – LB – Nevada
6’1’’ – 248 lbs – 4.44

Commish’s Take: The Raiders have a need at outside linebacker, and let’s face it, they’d love an outside linebacker at 248 lbs who runs a 4.4 40-yard dash.

17 (49). Jacksonville Jaguars – Stefan Wisniewski – OC/OG – Penn St.
6’3’’ – 313 lbs – 5.35

Commish’s Take: The Jaguars could use a leader at the center position. Wisniewski has the skill set to step in and solidify the Jaguars interior offensive line.

18 (50). San Diego Chargers – Christian Ballard – DE – Iowa
6’4’’ – 283 lbs – 4.80

Commish’s Take: Ballard was unblockable at the senior bowl and a solid late 2nd round pick. Ballard is a good fit at end in a 3-4 defense.

19 (51). Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jabaal Sheard – DE – Pitt
6’3’’ – 264 lbs – 4.69

Commish’s Take: Following their lead from 2010, the Bucs go back-to-back defensive linemen again. A combination of Jordan and Sheard could be fun to watch. If they decide to grab another end later like Greg Romeus, the Bucs could look to address linebacker or get someone with speed for their offense. You’ll notice a run on speed receivers here to end the 2nd round.

20 52). New York Giants – Bruce Carter – LB – North Carolina
6’2’’ – 241 lbs – DNP

Commish’s Take: Carter’s health is a big worry right now. Some say he might have to start his NFL career on the PUP list. When healthy, Carter is a top notch linebacker, but not many teams want damaged goods.

21 53). Indianapolis Colts – Brandon Harris – CB – Miami
5’9’’ – 191 lbs – 4.51

Commish’s Take: Harris is an excellent fit for a “Tampa 2” type defense. He is excellent in zone coverage and a very good tackler.

22 54). Philadelphia Eagles – Jason Pinkston – OT/OG – Pitt.
6’3’’ – 317 lbs – 5.47

Commish’s Take: You know Andy Reid is getting an offensive lineman, so why not someone close to home. Pinkston can play guard or tackle.

23 55). Kansas City Chiefs – Marcus Cannon – OT – TCU
6’5’’ – 358 lbs – 5.26

Commish’s Take: The Chiefs were one of the best teams running the football last year behind a patchwork offensive line. Cannon is a massive lineman that can play guard or tackle.

24 (56). New Orleans Saints – Stephen Paea – DT – Oregon St.
6’1’’ – 303 lbs – DNP

Commish’s Take: Paea was the strongest player at the combine and would pair up nice with Sedrick Ellis.

25 (57). Seattle Seahawks – Ryan Williams – RB – Va. Tech
5’9’’ – 212 lbs – 4.53

Commish’s Take: Williams is a special back that, when healthy, is as talented as any back in this draft. He should be an excellent fit for the Seahawks west coast offense.

26 (58). Baltimore Ravens – Titus Young – WR – Boise St.
5’11’’ – 174 lbs – 4.53

Commish’s Take: The Ravens patience pays off. Recent reports have Young slipping. The Ravens need speed on offense and Young has plenty of that.

27 (59). Atlanta Falcons – Jerrel Jernigan – WR – Troy
5’9’’ – 185 lbs – 4.46

Commish’s Take: Harry Douglas has been a disappointment so the Falcons need an answer. The Falcons have shown extra attention to Troy university, so Jernigan seems to be a natural target.

28 (60). New England Patriots – Randall Cobb – WR – Kentucky
5’10’’ – 191 lbs – 4.46

Commish’s Take: Cobb’s a good fit for the Patriots with his good route running, shiftiness, and speed.

29 (61). San Diego Chargers (via NYJ) – Jordan Cameron – TE – USC
6’5’’ – 254 lbs – 4.59

Commish’s Take: I think the Chargers need some insurance in case Antonio Gates gets injured again. Cameron is a receiving tight end in the Gates mold.

30 (62). Chicago Bears – Greg Little – WR – North Carolina
6’3’’ – 231 lbs – 4.53

Commish’s Take: Reports have Little dropping to the 4th round because of his attitude and character concerns, but he has a lot of talent. If teams saw what the Bucs got with Mike Williams in the 4th round last year, these teams might be more willing to take a chance earlier this year.

31 (63). Pittsburgh Steelers – Curtis Marsh – CB – Utah St.
6’0’’ – 197 lbs – 4.52

Commish’s Take: Curtis Marsh is a solid corner who could thrive in man coverage with the Steelers.

32 (64). Green Bay Packers – Drake Nevis – DT – LSU
6’1’’ – 294 lbs – 5.07

Commish’s Take: Justin Harrell never worked out and Cullin Jenkins is a free agent. Nevis is an underrated prospect that I think would be a very nice selection to close out the 2nd round.

Joe can’t recall how many times he had a temper tantrum last season when the Bucs didn’t give LeGarrette Blount the rock consistently.

The man single-handedly turned the then dreadful Bucs running game into arguably a top-5 unit in the NFL, helped make the offensive line look better than it was and, arguably, pushed Cadillac Williams into a role that likely saved his career. But for Joe’s taste, the Bucs got away from Blount far too often.

Now, the data obsessed number crunchers at ProFootballFocus.com have declared Blount the most elusive running back in the NFL — by a mile.

The Elusive Rating itself

But that’s enough of the raw numbers. On to the magic formula. The Elusive Rating formula begins by combining carries and receptions to give a ‘ball-handling opportunities’ figure. We then combine forced missed tackles in both the run and pass game to find a total number for forced missed tackles, which is then divided by the ball-handling opportunities. This number is then multiplied by a player’s yards per carry after first contact figure (x100) to get our final number. Confused yet?
 
The magic formula: (MTrush+MTrec)/(Rec+Att)*(YCo/Att*100)
 
Last season, Seattle’s Justin Forsett set the benchmark in our first Elusive Rating study. Forsett’s ER of 70.19 narrowly edged Jonathan Stewart for the best rating of that season. As you might have gathered from some of the numbers we have already discussed, this season’s competition wasn’t as close. Posting a fairly ridiculous ER of 89.8 was Tampa Bay’s LaGarrette Blount.
 
There are a few things that need to be said about that. Firstly, Blount was a rookie! Secondly, his ER was more than 30 points in front of the next best mark (Fred Jackson’s 58.5,) and thirdly, Blount went undrafted just months before.

Joe’s not a stats geek, but some of the stuff from ProFootballFocus.com is intriguing. Sure, Joe heard the voices of those who say Blount fumbles too much. Frankly, Joe doesn’t buy that, and Blount should improve in that area with experience regardless.

Just give the guy the damn ball until a team shows it can stop him.