Kalshi Crowd Still Likes The Bucs
March 19th, 2026
Bucs and the predictive market.
The Bucs losing two starters on defense, including their best corner and a Hall of Fame receiver, has not spooked the public at the predictive market Kalshi.
Joe has typed stories in the wake of legal tampering how Vegas is smiling on the Bucs to win the division. “This Joe” immediately put cash on the Stinking Panthers — hey, if the Bucs aren’t going to the playoffs, at least Joe can have some solace knowing a few shekels will come, right?
Well, it surprised “this Joe” that the public using the predictive market Kalshi is favoring the Bucs.
The difference between Kalshi and Vegas? The books are trying to entice the public into wagering. With Kalshi? The public sets the tone.
Sadly, with Mike Evans and Jamel Dean gone, Joe thinks the Bucs got worse last week. And they didn’t make the playoffs last season. So there’s Joe’s logic.
Currently, 35 percent of the folks placing predictions (with cash) on who wins the NFC South are banking on the Bucs.
March 19th, 2026 at 12:07 am
Kalshi took too many blows to its virtual noggin. Bet the farm against this team, 1987 Bucs on the way.
March 19th, 2026 at 12:09 am
whoa who!… Best of the worst… Did not turn out that way this past season
March 19th, 2026 at 12:21 am
Place your bets early kids while the odds favor your predicted outcome!
March 19th, 2026 at 12:27 am
Without injuries the Bucs are easily the best team.
March 19th, 2026 at 12:27 am
Injuries. Sure.
March 19th, 2026 at 1:13 am
Interesting
But what’s going on with Mike Evans?
March 19th, 2026 at 1:38 am
i took a minute to digest all the bucs’ occurrencesof the week…
i don’t think we got better, bit i don’t think we really got worse either…
we sort of stayed the same…
if we win 10 next year i will say that would be a bit of an overachievement…so maybe we got a little older and a little worse…
can we win 7 or 8 next year…………………yeah
March 19th, 2026 at 2:02 am
current win predictions as of right now…post the free agent rush and pre draft…
7 wins…we look like a 7-10 team
the absolute ceiling is 9 wins
the floor is 5 wins
this is as of right now…as the bucs and all other team’s rosters are currently built right now
March 19th, 2026 at 2:16 am
Like I said since last Dec… I’d put my money on the Saints for 2026. I don’t think it’s a sure-thing by any means, but if forced to bet, as of today, that’s where I’d go. They looked like the best team in the NFC South over the last month+ of the season, and it’s very difficult to argue the Bucs have improved (but not impossible, just getting back the offensive line is a huge improvement).
March 19th, 2026 at 2:41 am
The Panthers signed AJ Dillon. I’ve always thought he was a strong back when healthy. But, he’s never healthy for very long.
March 19th, 2026 at 2:58 am
It’s time to start telling the truth. We lost Mike Evans because he was going be WR 3. He wanted to go to a team with a weaker Wr group so he could still be a priority. Wish the guy well but let’s be honest Sterling Shepard had more yards than him last year and he bagged my groceries yesterday at the supermarket.
We will be just fine Emeka Godwin and Mcmillian will all out produce Evans this year. Stop with the nonsense I had almost the same amount of yards from my couch.
March 19th, 2026 at 3:29 am
We still don’t know what this team will look like come Wednesday, Sept 9th when the first game of the 2026 game kicks off, nor what every other team will look like. How can anyone, in Vegas or elsewhere, predict how many wins & losses a team will have if they don’t know what players each team has?
Yet I’d guess that right now we can probably fill in 45 of the 53 players who’ll make the opening day roster. There’ll probably be 1-2 more key FA pickups plus 6 or so draftees still to be identified. I’d also guess though that 3-4 of those last 8 roster spots will be crucial to our success this season.
Based on what positions I think the Bucs SHOULD draft (not that they will of course), my guess is that the Bucs will finish with a floor of 7 wins & a ceiling of 11 wins. Most likely seasonal record is 9-8, maybe 10-7 if Lady Luck smiles on us. Is that enough to win the NFC South? Maybe; obviously depends on how well our divisional opponents do.
IF we draft well (beastly DT/NT, CB & 2 ILBs in the Top-4 Rnds plus BPAs after that), I think this defense MIGHT be able to fight its’ way back into the Top-10. I’m convinced that our S/Ts will be much better this season, but I’m not as optimistic about the offense as many seem to be, mostly because of lack of DEPTH. Last season spooked me, and showed me just how dependent we are on having top OLine performances to protect Baker & drive our running game. Solve that & I think we might be able to make it back into the Top-10 once again.
March 19th, 2026 at 3:56 am
Bucs did get better.
1) Signed a better RB than White, who left.
2) Signed a better ILB, and if David plays another year, look out
3) We upgraded the pass rush too. Reddick was so had it isn’t funny.
And, “3.28.Evans”, or whatever name you usually use, if you don’t think injuries were the main cause of last year, you are blind.
March 19th, 2026 at 3:59 am
We also have the draft and more free agency coming.
I don’t gamble, but I don’t hink the Bucs can win the division, depending on whatever moves are made before training camp.
March 19th, 2026 at 4:23 am
@Defense:
i think your record guess is based on if we kind of dominate and win the division, or come close to winning it…
if we get knocked around, catching losses, in what could be a much improved group of in division opponents…you might want to knock a couple games off that 9-8 total…
that’s how i kind of tentatively came up with 7-10…as of right now……as you suggested, it’s waaay too early…
last year i had us winning 11, and we were well on our way, until the collapse kicked in…
if we can somehow win 10 or 11 we just might win the division again…
even if all kind of goes wrong, i still see us winning 5-6 games…and that would be if things go really bad…we will not be in that bottom rung group of teams competing for the number one draft pick…
coach has never won more than 10 in his career as HC…i thought last year he’s add 1 and bump up to 11…and when the team rolled into the bye at 6-2 i started thinking we just might win 12-13…
then the team took a team trip to tiajuana, or took a group retreat to aaron rodgers iawaska spot, or ignored jobu’s warnings, because something def changed right then and there
March 19th, 2026 at 5:58 am
I’m all for Hall heading for Houston and enjoying upgrades at his spot and the Bucs adding a pair of beastly DTs. Problem with that sound plan is there aren’t any beastly DTs in this draft. Big ones and fast ones but none worth a pick before day 3, unfortunately. They miss too many tackles and fall down way too much for me to be burning a top 100 pick on any of this year’s DT crop. Robinson is a start but I’d like to add DJ Reader for 2yrs/7.8 mil as well and draft some DT rotational/depth talent on day 3.
I’d jump on Capeheart in round 4 but after the combine he is going top 100 in this weak class. Kaleb Proctor 6’2” 291 is a Kancy type 3 tech I like in round 4/5. Chris McClellan 6’4 313 is a good choice in that range as well. His sack total is deceptively high but he’ll be solid against the run week 1. Same goes for RayShaun Benny 6’3” 298.
Ethan Burke 6’7” 259 is an interesting specimen. He played 5 tech and OLB with Anthony Miller Jr. for the past few years at Texas. He is a pterosaur- blocked 3 kicks at Texas. Nelson-like dude available round 5/6.
Damonic Williams 6’2” 305 from Oklahoma and Jackie Marshall 6’2” 293 are two round 7/UDFA sleepers I truly like. Marshall is a lean, mean machine who played a lot of OLB well. And Williams and Gracen Halton were a pair of beasties at Oklahoma. Halton is better but not 4-5 rounds better than Williams so I’ll go for the value ferocious run-stuffer.
None of these guys are proper grizzly bears but the Bucs need new blood straight across the defensive front and the beasts in this draft are EDGE, ILB and S.
I’m focusing on day 3 for a CB as well. Andre Fuller 6’1” 200 10’9” broad jump from Toledo. Dean replacement. Natural zone CB who needs a little work on man and wrapping up. His partner Avery Smith 5’11” 196 is very sticky and zone savvy but there are worries about his long speed but he is well worth a round 7 pick. I really think he could start for a lot of teams including the Bucs. Izien replacement. Those two are like the poor man’s Bain and Mesidor in that they’re a pair of technically refined seniors playing on the same team that make it so obvious they are well-coached.
Based on what’s available in this draft I’m leaning Mesidor or Thieneman round 1, Hill Jr. or R Mason Thomas in round two. Kyle Louis (big slot/box safety to me) or Jake Golday round 3. Then nab a starting quality back-up IOL+ in round 4 in Duke C/T/G Brian Parker II 6’5” 309 with movement skills or Iowa C/G Beau Stephens 6’6’ 315. No pip-squeak DBs or over-hyped DTs, please but other than that I’m of the mind there are dozens of combinations of draft selections that with no small amount of luck could see the 2026 Bucs making a deep, redemptive playoff run. Once the draft results are in I’ll dare to tally imaginary wins.
March 19th, 2026 at 6:12 am
Off topic fun day 3 sleeper is Iowa kick returner and gadget receiver Kaden Wetjen 5’ 9” 193 with 6 kicks returned for TDs. Darden was an over-drafted mistake as are most of Licht’s special teams splurges but this All-time Big Ten punt return avg leader in round 6 could be a difference maker.
March 19th, 2026 at 6:44 am
Until proven otherwise this team simply sucks. They no longer get the benefit of the doubt with me. Most of us will be going into the 2026 season with eyes wide open. 70% of this team will have the same players that completely quit on the season last year. You saw it. I saw it. It was appalling.
March 19th, 2026 at 7:16 am
I can see why folks are putting a bit of coin on the Buc as they appear to be the tallest midget in the room as long as the injury bugs stays away and they have an easier schedule than the team everyone is crowing about because they overpaid for some talent: Carolina which did next to nothing to help out its near bottom ranked offense. I wonder if you can get odds on whomever winning the division to win less than 8.5 or 9.5 win?!?!?!?
March 19th, 2026 at 8:19 am
Mike Evans is gone. Is there OFFENSE worse sure maybe and only the Bucs had a hall of fame receiver, he leaves and we still have the best receiving core. Deans is is availability and he was the best corner last year. Can’t lose a single player on a trash defense and say we got worse because of him.
March 19th, 2026 at 8:53 am
At least with the players you have a track record to look at for past performance. What do we have for this training and weight room group? We’re just assuming it’s going to be a better year and regression to the mean. How do we know it won’t be a repeat of the Hammytiville Horror show again?
March 19th, 2026 at 9:13 am
Concur with @Hopein1Hand on draft strategy. Except for KR…luxury roster spot not available when we have Tucker, Gainwell, & Tez (Tez is hopefully catching balls in a park or high school field every day this off season….you can do it!).
March 19th, 2026 at 9:39 am
Woe is me on losing Jamel Dean? Let’s get this straight. A defense that has been consistently bad on pass defense for 3 years loses its #2 corner and we are disappointed? Zyon McCollum at the beginning of last season was suppposed to be a lock down corner and Licht gave Dean “cram down” money. Dean was great. He just was very bad at tackling and coverage.
March 19th, 2026 at 9:41 am
The reason is, these folks aren’t emotionally tied to the Bucs. Bucs fans, including media, cant put their feelings aside.
The Bucs were dealing with oline injuries ALL year. From Wirfs, who’s injury caused a major reshuffling of the oline, then Luke and Mauch, then Bredensen. The oline was a wreck all year and with an OC in over his head, it finally caught up with them. Add injuries to Wrs and a hobbled QB, the offense had major issues.
Just getting healthy should be a major “upgrade” from last year.
Also, the ST were terribly coached. Another bid upgrade in coaching on ST.
Add in what we all knew was a suspect defense and, we’ll there you have it.
If JL can add an upgrade at edge and Lber in the draft, then I believe the Bucs will win the South.
March 19th, 2026 at 10:12 am
mike and jamel dean was hurt majority of the season, so how does loosing both of them hurt us ? i see it like this even with the loss of mike evans we still have the most talented offensive in the nfl. it seems doom and fear is what the media is trying to seel if you was smart you would bet the house on the bucs healthy
March 19th, 2026 at 10:45 am
Looks like the psilocybin truck dumped a load for posters to ingest. Any talk of winning or competing with this bag of skunk is hallucinatory.
March 19th, 2026 at 1:33 pm
All these fans complaining about Mike and Dean leaving and calling for tod bowles head. After watching the way all these so called fans and team reporters have been talking and listening to the ignorance spewing out their mouths………… I would be willing to bet the house it’s the fan base that’s causing players to walk more than anything else. The entitlement is real and alive in the Bucs fan base smh. Been a fan for over 30 years and it just gets worse every year. Bucs fan base is full of grown men Karen’s smh. Bucs gonna shine this season just to spite y’all. While all these “entitled” fans watch the games from their reddit streams, I’ll be supporting my team at Raymond James. Baker and the boys gonna ball this year. Let’s go Bucs.
March 19th, 2026 at 1:38 pm
5-12.
March 19th, 2026 at 1:49 pm
All these fans complaining about Mike and Dean leaving and calling for tod bowles head. After watching the way all these so called fans and team reporters have been talking and listening to the ignorance spewing out their mouths………… I would be willing to bet the house it’s the fan base that’s causing players to walk more than anything else. The entitlement is real and alive in the Bucs fan base smh. Been a fan for over 30 years and it just gets worse every year. Bucs fan base is full of grown men Karen’s smh. Bucs gonna shine this season just to spite y’all. While all these “entitled” fans watch the games from their reddit streams, I’ll be supporting my team at Raymond James. Baker and the boys gonna ball this year. Let’s go Bucs.
March 19th, 2026 at 2:17 pm
” “This Joe” immediately put cash on the Stinking Panthers ”
SHAME! SHAME!
Might want to keep that kind of ish to yourself Joseph….
March 20th, 2026 at 6:38 am
Bucs O/U on Wins is 8.5 and Vegas is begging you to take the Under by paying off at +115 for doing so. I guess the many Bucs detractors on this site are going to fill their bag if the predictions of the Tampa Bay demise are correct.