Better Bucs Predicted .. Barely
September 9th, 2026
NFL analytics queen Cynthia Frelund.
Joe loves NFL data queen Cynthia Frelund’s work on her own podcast versus her data synthesis for NFL Network.
Numbers Game is well done.
Snapp AI is assisting (sponsoring?) Frelund this year and, of course, she has access to all kinds of NFL data. As she often does, Frelund molded a game prediction model for the 2026 season and she spent about 35 minutes explaining how it applied to the NFC.
In the NFC South landfill, Frelund and her model predict the Bucs as champions with 8.6 wins. Critical and expected keys for Frelund are the Bucs improving their 32nd-ranked red zone defense of last year and their pass defense, and Baker Mayfield upping his completion percentage with an improved offensive coordinator.
Simply put, Frelund is very confident the Bucs will slightly improve this season. She and her model have the Panthers in second place at 7.2 wins and New Orleans in third at 7.1. Atlanta brings up the rear at 6.7 projected wins.
September 9th, 2026 at 12:07 pm
I don’t think 8.6 wins is going to save Coach Bowles’ job. He better hope those numbers are lying.
September 9th, 2026 at 12:11 pm
health is the #1 factor….i see the defense and special teams improving drastically….
if Zac is as good as folks claim him to be, then i dont see why we cant win 11 or 12 games this year…
GO BUCS!!!!
September 9th, 2026 at 12:15 pm
mmmmm 8-9 in a disgraceful division, fire those cannons! With the amount of talent we have (other than lack of elite speed on offense and questionable pass coverage) that better not be the outcome
September 9th, 2026 at 12:22 pm
After last years SB teams.its all hogwash! Just listening to yourself babble! Any Givin Sunday…
September 9th, 2026 at 12:23 pm
Hell, I’ve been predicting 8-9 or 9-8 seasons for the past several years, and I didn’t need deep dive stats or AI to help me. I just looked at the sideline and asked myself “is that man capable of delivering anything but a .500 season?”
The answer has been, consistently, no. And his winning percentage in Tampa proves it. 36 and 36 overall (1-3 in the playoffs). Right on the nose: .500 football year in, year out.
September 9th, 2026 at 12:23 pm
10-7, IF NO serious outbreaks of the bug 11-6. Yep – 11-6.
September 9th, 2026 at 12:25 pm
@SteveV: Seattle and New England weren’t even expected to win their divisions last year.
September 9th, 2026 at 12:29 pm
Nobody at this point can honestly assess the Bucs season. Last year’s injuries tanked 2025. The Bucs coaching staff is very different from last year. Rubin Bain fell into the Bucs lap because of his short arms. The Bucs draft class is considered a ton 10 class, but they are still ookies with high ceilings The line backer room is completely revamped without Lavante David.
The last two years after the Bye week for the Bucs has been gruesome Will this year be a turn around season? We really don’t know. It’s a wait and see if the players can stay healthy and be ready for the playoffs
September 9th, 2026 at 12:43 pm
Butter Face is back!
September 9th, 2026 at 12:44 pm
Sadfy the other NFC South teams are a lot better. aIt is gonna be a Dogfight
September 9th, 2026 at 12:59 pm
BAs Red Pen is harsh lol
I know it’s sacrilege to speculate but IF el Serpiente were the Bucs OC with this D what would the Win/loss prediction be? 12-13? Still 8-10?
My contention is Baker is a mid tier QB capable of elite play with an elite playcaller – this all rests on Zac Robinson now imo
September 9th, 2026 at 1:47 pm
Sweep the division and that would be 6 wins. Bucs should, no excuses that they are divisional rivals. Bucs are better and they need to prove it.
September 9th, 2026 at 1:48 pm
How the fudge do you get .6 of a win? 8 and a tie, I get. Use your model to predict the outcome of all the games. This tenth of a win business is useless and ludicrous.
September 9th, 2026 at 1:52 pm
6-11
Bottom 10 Pass Defense
Top 10 Run Defense
Bye Todd, enjoy your millions in retirement
September 9th, 2026 at 1:53 pm
5-12.
September 9th, 2026 at 1:58 pm
She reminds me of Jim Dandy of Black Oak Arkansas. If the Bucs really want to be taken seriously they need at least a 12 win season with a home playoff, maybe a couple of wins. Time to stop with anything less than a Championship mentality because this roster looks to be ascending and the O-line will get old quicker than expected.
September 9th, 2026 at 1:59 pm
The bucs will not reach 10 wins with bowles as head coach even if you gave the bucs all the best players in the nfl…2024 will not happen again with bowles as coach. He is a stepping stone coach at best
September 9th, 2026 at 2:05 pm
AI really? A sure loser vs. the spread. Trust me.
September 9th, 2026 at 2:07 pm
butterface
September 9th, 2026 at 2:25 pm
Bowles isn’t going anywhere get over it
September 9th, 2026 at 2:37 pm
Now that the Baker signing is out of the way, Im going to 11, and if BIG IF the Oline stays healthy….CB’s too.
September 9th, 2026 at 4:03 pm
I’ll take the under on all her NFC South predictions.
September 9th, 2026 at 4:15 pm
Geez Joe, could you find a less flattering picture? Cmon, man 😊
September 9th, 2026 at 4:51 pm
Mort: It must be the sum of the probabilities.
September 9th, 2026 at 5:53 pm
With no major injuries on the offensive line or secondary (or Baker), this is a 12-5 football team. As injuries stack up, the record will go down. Injuries to the offensive line (pass rush through the scrub) and secondary (throw to the receiver covered by the scrub) are easiest for opposing coordinators to take advantage of. Let’s not have any of those this year and see how we do. Besides, we have a lot of salary/high draft picks invested in our O-line and secondary (especially safeties).