Bucs Ceiling For 2026
June 26th, 2026
Bucs coach Todd Bowles.
Could another “good” year be a Groundhog Day repeat of many Bucs seasons this decade?
The Bucs have been in a rut since winning the Super Bowl in February of 2021. The Bucs win the division and it is a coin flip if they win their opening round game.
And that’s where the postseason parade ends. The glass ceiling for the Bucs since the 2020 season has been one playoff win. Maybe.
The Bucs missed the playoffs last year for the first time this decade. After losing a tiebreaker — after having jumped out to a 6-2 record. The floor caved in.
Tyler Sullivan of CBS decided to look at each team’s best-case scenario 202. While Sullivan doesn’t spell out exactly what the best-case outcome would be for the Bucs, he suggested it may be another Groundhog Day season.
Best-case: Following an 8-9 season that saw Tampa Bay’s five-season playoff streak and four straight division titles come to an end, the Buccaneers get back on track. Even with Mike Evans gone, the passing game spearheaded by Baker Mayfield is strong, especially with Emeka Egbuka making a Year 2 leap for the ages. He becomes the new go-to weapon on offense, while rookie pass rusher Rueben Bain Jr. and rookie linebacker Josiah Trotter help usher in a new era on defense. Tampa Bay takes back the NFC South and returns to the playoffs.
“On track” meaning win the NFC South landfill again followed by a home playoff loss in the wild card round? Sullivan didn’t detail what “on track” specifically meant.
Joe thinks it’s long past the time to still think this is the same team with its core roster of Super Bowl champions. The Bucs have two starters on each side of the ball from the glorious 2020 season.
Two does not make a superior offense or superior defense.
June 26th, 2026 at 12:07 am
On a positive note, the NFL, overall, really doesn’t have any dominate teams right now. So if you can get hot, at the right time, you might have a chance.
Last year the Bucs were in that spot, and Baker responded by singlehandedly tanking the team and costing them the playoffs.
If Baker is better, then the Bucs will at least have a shot.
Of course Baker’s last two playoff games have ended with him turning it over when it mattered most.
But, with that said, IF Baker was to get hot, and IF Baker was to make plays in the playoffs, and the Bucs got a few breaks, it’s not impossible to believe…
June 26th, 2026 at 12:16 am
Yea, if Baker can score more points than the other team we are set.
June 26th, 2026 at 2:12 am
Single-handedly, lol. There’s 22 people just on the offense and defense. Even special teams screwed up quite a bit. When are you gonna give that bit up?
June 26th, 2026 at 2:14 am
Also Joe’s wrong too. This team has its own superior offense. All it will take is health. The defense is back on the rise, too.
June 26th, 2026 at 4:10 am
I’m gonna glass half full this one based solely on insomnia: this maybe addition by subtraction. Subtracting the new additions considered in the article…maybe, maybe your defense goes into the pooper in the second half of the season if your veteran captain is clearly on his last legs and mulling retirement. If not in words but in body language.
On offense, Mayfield was an inspiring QB in Cleveland who brought the franchise a first playoff win in forever…until they brought on a big name #1 wideout that demanded attention and affected decision making.
This might very well be addition by subtraction and if not leading to more than 8 wins as the article says will definitely be a litmus test as to what we are actually dealing with talent wise on both sides of the ball…and be able to make future decisions correspondingly.
June 26th, 2026 at 5:09 am
So how many SB Champs did the Seahawks have before last season? Joe, “only 2 super bowl guys (on each side of the ball…..) doesn’t have anything to do with the Bucs winning it this year.
June 26th, 2026 at 5:11 am
Well, old Barnwell had our 2026 ‘Skilled-Positions’ (WR/TE/RB) Ranked at #22. I know judging by most people’s comments, it’ll be shocking. But, it’s NOT (and shouldn’t be). They all ‘think’ this Offense is LOADED. Seriously, one poster said the other day, that they were VERY impressed by Hurst, after watching him run a few “SLANTS” (lol) during underwear football, without wearing any pads Lmao… Just couldn’t get over how well HE “moved” at that size, & etc. LoL. Barnwell’s comments on Hurst was literally IDENTICAL to mine from the other day! Hopefully, they are afforded the time and opportunity, to be able to bring him along SLOWLY.
It’s THE NFL. And, these posters on here, don’t have even the FIRST clue. It’s like, do they not realize that EVERY TEAM’S WR’s “looks good” on a few ‘highlights’ during PRACTICE!? That, they are ALL STUDS. Physical SPECIMENS. And, that most of these guys are a dime a dozen in THE NFL, and that literally EVERY TEAM’s casual fans ‘thinks’ that THEIR WR-group is pretty well stacked and “loaded” for the most part!? I mean, come on. Most Bucs Fans don’t even know WHO the #3 thru #8 WR’s are on the say, COLTS. It’s no difference than in the NBA, when a G-Leaguer that no one has ever heard of before, gets “the call” and drops THIRTY, hitting 7-3’s, and pulling down 8-boards, & 7-assists, with 4-steals, and a couple of blocks. Just completely outta NOWHERE. A couple of starters and heavy volume guys were OUT, and they happened to step-in and STEP-UP.
Anyway, Barnwell made the comment that his Top-8 Teams, are all really in a class all by themselves, with quite a bit of difference in separation from the rest. After looking at his list, he is correct. Though, I would add the Eagles (he had them at #9)… IF, I know for sure that Saquon is still healthy, and the same goes with DeVonta Smith as their #1, and Hollywood Brown and Wicks, along with 1st-Round Pick Makai Lemon, all known to be a little brittle. Also, they have TWO very capable TE’s, in Goedert and Stowers. So, if healthy… They can be in that ELITE type of group, with the ‘right’ scheme and play-calling. He had MY “FUN” (sleeper NFC) Team, the Arizona Cardinals at #6. Mannnn, THAT Running Back Room is STRONG… Jeremiyah Love, James Conner, & Allgeier. Now, that can be THE #1 RB-room in the entire LEAGUE. Again, IF Connner can stay healthy!? And, see… Someone like Conner, just proves my point. Most casual fans of other teams, do not even realize just how good HE IS. He’s a BEAST.
Hell, ALL of these guys CAN PLAY!!!! But, they ‘think’ that OUR ROOM with Bucky, Tucker, & Kenny Freaking Gainwell, is some “STRONG/GREAT/LOADED” group. And, I’m like… Ummmm, OhhhhKaaaayyyy. YEAH, Whatever. It’s called not living in REALITY.
T-Krass literally said on WDAE two days ago, that ATL did NOT have any “ELITE-Talent.” Well, they were ranked at #4 on Barnwell’s list. I was like, WHAT!? T-Krass has lost his damn MIND. They are freaking LOAD.ED. with ELITE ‘high-end’ TALENT. What the hell is HE TALKING ABOUT!? Let’s see… BIJAN. PITTS. LONDON. I mean, they are THE ELITE of THE ELITE. And, on Defense… YOUNG. And, ELITE (talents and trajectory). Pearce. Jalon Walker. Watts. Are you kidding ME!? All three of them are just going into their 2ND SEASONS. I don’t know WHAT happened to T-Krass there. I believe he just misspoke. It was like, either right before, or right after HE’D ‘lost-it’ and WENT-OFF on The Rays! So, I’m giving him a pass on that one LoL.
June 26th, 2026 at 6:45 am
Forget about the team, this is a tough year for fans. Licht, Bowles, the stumble down the stretch offense and quitting defense set the table last year when we fans were force to “root” for the lowly Saints in order for our beloved bucs to make the playoff. We went against our DNA and they still failed to get in. Now we sit upon a teeter totter. On one side, we remain loyal and root for the home home team. However, an evil voice lingers in the back of our minds….”if they do well enough to make the playoff, we could be stuck with Todd/Jason into perpetuity and continue to live in a house of cards.”
June 26th, 2026 at 7:52 am
If Baker, the OL, DL and our starting CBs stay healthy, we could win 11. That’s a big if.
June 26th, 2026 at 8:06 am
Unfortunately, the Bucs’ ceiling is based on how high Bowles can jump.
June 26th, 2026 at 8:21 am
Barring another devastating injury plagued season, 2026 will be a referendum on Mayfield and Bowles’ futures with the Bucs….which is why the Bucs should wait on any Mayfield contract extension unless they get Mayfield to agree to an incentive laden cap friendly contract.
June 26th, 2026 at 9:17 am
Ceiling: 10-7
Floor: 4-13
Best Guess: 5-12
June 26th, 2026 at 10:39 am
Lots of speculation about our ceiling in ’26…rightfully so, especially with our poor showing after the bye week last season. But one thing jumps out at me more so than at any time in my 33 years following the Bucs. What is the fixation out there on Mike Evans and Lavonte David leaving?!!
Yes, they were great players, and in Evans case the HOF likely awaits, but…. they are gone. If we are going to accomplish half of our high expectations, we had better start looking forward and stop focusing on the past. Davids’ age had caught up with him, and Evans’ injuries had kept him off the field more often than some would like to admit… I believe that our off-season acquisitions and draft will better address the team’s performance this year than had they stayed.
I don’t remember us being this fixated when Brady left.
June 26th, 2026 at 10:45 am
Dam Joe there were 5 2026 players that were on the Super Bowl team. I don’t Hate Baker and in not a Flush Bowles Fan. I’m just looking at this team and i see
Ceiling 14 wins
Expected 11 wins
Floor 9 wins
Anybody who thinks different is having confusion problems stemming from their hate
June 26th, 2026 at 10:53 am
Bijan is elite talent. Pitts and London are good, not elite.
June 26th, 2026 at 10:58 am
The floor is the ceiling with Bowles at the helm.
It’s preposterous to allow him to have control over the defense after 2025.
He’s the only HC\DC in the NFL with that putrid of a pass defense and allowed to retain his DC job.
We will never get over the hump until he’s gone. It really is that simple.
As long as they bring in an offensive minded HC and a REAL DC.
June 26th, 2026 at 11:59 am
the ceiling with a Bowles coached team will always be win a home playoff game and win the bad south then go home
June 26th, 2026 at 12:05 pm
Parity is real in the NFL.
Who would have guessed Seattle vs New England in the SB – any given Sunday!
We have more talent than we’ve had for years.
I’d put our ceiling @ 11-12
June 26th, 2026 at 12:52 pm
@ Vinny from Vermont – Ummmm… Brady was here for a cup of coffee.
June 26th, 2026 at 12:57 pm
Simpleton says:
“I’d put our ceiling @ 11-12”
Of course you would. It’s the most illogical take based on the history with Bowles as the HC\DC.
10 wins is the high water mark. He isn’t capable of anything beyond that.
He should have been replaced after 2024, with Coen as the HC and a real DC.
June 26th, 2026 at 1:12 pm
@ Stpetematt – They were both just PAID as if they are. I mean, have YOU actually SEEN PITTS!? He is a straight up FREAK. If you were to line HIM up in a group of TE’s and said to “pick one” – You would say, “I want THAT ONE.” They’ve just barely used the TE position there, until last season. And, look at what HE did. Plus, they haven’t had anything close to having even a half-way competent QB yet, either. Stefanski will get HIM the ball. The guy is an ELITE TALENT. And, do is London. When healthy, almost everyone has him as being a Top-10 WR. Possibly even Top-5ish… IF he again, had a QB. He’s a better athlete version of Mike Evans. Seems to be a lot more explosive, and moves better. But, it’s been an awfully looong time though, since I’ve seen Mike ‘move’ on that level. They are definitely ELITE. A without a doubt TOP-5 Group. And, I would have them as ‘potentially’ being right there as HIGH as Minnesota, Detroit, & the Rams’ BIG-3’s. IF, they’re healthy and either Penix or Tua one can also stay healthy themselves, and step TF up for this season.
June 26th, 2026 at 1:21 pm
@ LynchMob50 Says: “Of course you would. It’s the most illogical take based on the history with Bowles as the HC\DC.”
A MUCH different type of schedule for this season, too! At least appears to be currently, as of this moment. Especially, down the final stretch of the season. And, an improving more talented Division. Honestly, I can’t find a reasonable path to 10-wins.
June 26th, 2026 at 1:28 pm
Simple T Says: “Who would have guessed Seattle.”
I DID. Had ‘em winning their division. Had ‘em going to the Super Bowl, UNTIL Green Bay made the move for Parsons, and I switched-it at the very last minute LoL. But, that was a DAMN STRONG 10-7 football team just the season before, and just barely ‘missed-out’ on the Playoffs, due to residing in a BRUTAL Division. And, this was with Geno Smith as their Quarterback.
June 26th, 2026 at 1:37 pm
I’m tired of “…but they made the playoffs,” like the NFC South hasn’t been the worst division in football in the history of divisional play (look it up… no other division has been this bad for this long since division play began).
Winning this division just means you’re the floatiest turn in the toilet. All you’re accomplishing is being the last one flushed.
June 26th, 2026 at 1:53 pm
The ceiling with Todd in charge will ALWAYS be 9 or 10 wins