Playoff Chances With Or Without A Win

November 28th, 2024

The PFF tribe speaks.

Hey, you may have heard, the Bucs can’t afford to lose more than one game the rest of the way to play meaningful football in mid-January.

So what are the Bucs’ chances with a win or a loss? Joe has that intel courtesy of the PFF tribe.

Everybody and their brother seems to have a different calculation on the Bucs’ percentages of pulling off this feat: making the playoffs for the fifth straight season.

So why not consult with the inventors of the game of football, the PFF tribe. Don’t think they know more than Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, Mike Tomlin or Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht? Well, just ask the tribe.

With a win Sunday over the Stinking Panthers, the Bucs, per numbers cruncher Timo Riske, have a 57 percent shot of making the playoffs.

But if the Bucs lose? Yikes. That percentage drops to 21 percent. No other NFC team has a postseason percentage swing that wide riding this weekend.

The Bucs have no business looking ahead. At all. Todd Bowles said yesterday the Bucs are already in the playoffs in the sense they cannot afford a loss.

Joe guesses most folks don’t like the Bucs’ chances of traveling to the City of Angels and beating Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers. So the other remaining five games are must-wins.


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33 Responses to “Playoff Chances With Or Without A Win”

  1. TheBucsAnthem Says:

    No way the Bucs are making the playoffs this season……they barely made the Playoffs last year with a losing record and they were for the most part healthy heading into December.

    Let’s just be honest here Joe

  2. Lt. Dan Says:

    “With a win Sunday over the Stinking Panthers…D@mn Joe…i wish you hadn’t said that. In Japan they call that Bachi = “divine punishment” or “supernatural retribution” that results from one’s bad actions”

  3. Lightningvinny Says:

    My calculations say 10-7 gets us in,,, 9-8 will come down to multiple tie breaker scenarios ,, most importantly NFC record ,, so obviously that 9-8 ,,, 10-7 would come down to WHO we lose to,, The Charger game would be one that is the least damaging but , I would advise against losing this weekend,, One game at a time ,, Get this one then look to next week

  4. Shake&Baker Says:

    Anthem, you bad at math bro. They finished the season 9-8. After the playoffs their record was 10-9. You need to improve your trolling skills dumb$&@!

  5. JimBobBuc Says:

    I like Bowles’ perspective, the Bucs are in the playoffs now in the sense that if they lose, their season is likely over. Just Win Baby!

    A lot of the top NFC teams have challenging schedules – the NFC North has a lot of divisional games coming up so the Vikings, Packers, and Lions are likely to have some loses.

    Ultimately, the Bucs need to win out, tough, but do-able with complementary football. LFG!

  6. Joe in Michigan Says:

    JimBobBuc: Did you like Bowles perspective in the 2 games vs. Atlanta, too? Where Bowles made Kirk Cousins look like Joe Montana and Tom Brady in their prime? The whole “yeah, but guys were injured” excuse doesn’t hold any water when other teams have injuries, too. The stats of Cousins vs. the Bucs and him vs. the rest of the league shows that Bowles doesn’t know what he’s doing. Those were the games where they needed to “Just Win, Baby”, they handed the division over to the Falcons.

  7. Jeff Says:

    The Panthers can’t pressure the QB. Bucs o line talent is above average collectively and their blocking scheme is excellent. Bucs probably roll on Sunday. Bucs 27 Panthers 13.

  8. Larrd Says:

    The Bucs have played everyone tough despite injuries and are toughened up for the stretch. A lot depends on the Falcons and whether Rah Rah can right the ship but I like the Bucs chances quite a bit.

  9. Pewter Power Says:

    Todd Bowles had this exact same opportunity last year same cupcake schedule. Almost won 7 straight but dropped that second to last game to the saints. So I expect him to get completely out coached by harbaugh and lose to the chargers. It’s unrealistic to think all the wildcard teams with better records and the falcons are just going to keep losing games. It will come down to the wire though so enjoy the chase but at minimum he loses one game.

  10. BucsFanSince1996 Says:

    Bucs will beat the Panthers 33 – 24

  11. TheBigSombreo Says:

    They are only 1 game behind Atlanta.

    Root for wins from Tampa, and losses from Atlanta.

  12. TheBucsAnthem Says:

    I really this website.

    I have been lurking on this site forever and I can always tell the difference between the new posters and the delusional ones or maybe they’re the combination of both.

    Then there’s me and the rest who’s seen this Bucs Sheit show every season where we see another Bucs team start sheiting themselves around December because the keep on losing games and lead the hopeless bucs fans on thinking maybe they have a shot at the playoffs….

    Sorry, but they don’t……this year is one of the worst years I’ve seen a Bucs team have inregards to impact players being injured.

    Seriously, us older longtime Bucs fans are so used to the “Late season winter collapse” that’s it’s become routine thinking in our minds.

    Just stop already

  13. Bartow Buc Says:

    Bucs are highly favored over Carolina. Defense continues to improve. Offense is consistently one of the best in the NFL .
    Playing really good teams in the past will help us down this stretch !! As long as Baker stays healthy, we have a great chance of winning out 11-6 !!

    Winning out is going to be hard work, but I believe the Bucs are up to the task. Coach Bowles still has the team. They believe in his concept, that’s half the battle won.

    Beat the Panthers

    Go Bucs !!

  14. BillyBucco Says:

    It’s amazing the difference one game makes. We finally stop the bleeding and everyone is talking about winning 7 straight. What about this team makes you think that? I get hanging on to hope, but let’s be realistic. Chargers, Cowboys and Saints will all be hard wins.
    The Falcons losing is the only hope we have.
    We will NOT get a wildcard at 9-8 this year.
    Let’s just beat the Panthers.

  15. Gipper Says:

    Shake&Baker Says:
    November 28th, 2024 at 9:22 am
    Anthem, you bad at math bro. They finished the season 9-8. After the playoffs their record was 10-9. You need to improve your trolling skills dumb$&@!
    ====================================
    S&B,
    Anthem is pretty typical of a majority of bloggers here. Often wrong but never in doubt.

  16. Godlovesbucs Says:

    If the bucs lose to the Panthers, i would put playoff chances at 0%. What would that say about the chances they get thru the rest of the season without a loss?

  17. Mike Johnson Says:

    Playoffs? You Kiddin Me? The only playoffs this team is going to be a part of is with us fans..Sittin at home on the couch wolfing down wings, fries, and guzzlin Suds. And watching other NFl teams compete. Don’t be so quick pronouncing a Panthers victory this Sunday either. The Panthers are a much-improved team since season start. Out Bucs might be in for a Surprise.

  18. 1sparkybuc Says:

    Forget the playoffs. Even if we got in, we don’t have the defense needed to advance very far. Feed Mike the ball and maintain the streak. Use these games to build for 2025. Go for two every TD instead of kicking the extra point. Have some fun like it’s sandlot football. Get everybody involved.

  19. Buddha Says:

    Can’t win in San Diego. We won in Detroit and when needed it last year in Green Bay. Who have the Chargers beaten?

  20. Let em Bake Says:

    Falcons still have Chargers,Vikings, and Commanders…lose two of those, and the Bucs look good.

  21. GoneGator Says:

    Todd should have 1sparkybuc or Mike Johnson come in to do a pregame pep talk. 🤣

    I mean that’s the kind of winning attitude and belief that fuels success, right? Smh

  22. TheBucsAnthem Says:

    Yeah

    Dumb Bucs Fans thinking the Panthers are thr same team from last year………NO THEY’RE NOT!

    The Panthers are much improved this year……..so a win isn’t a given.

    But you patsy delusional Bucs fans, keep on thinking that

  23. Buccaneer Bonzai Says:

    TheBucsAnthem Says:
    “…seen this Bucs Sheit show every season where we see another Bucs team start sheiting themselves… ”

    Only team in our division with TWO SUPERBOWL RINGS in this century.

  24. ReturnGrudenToRing Says:

    The Bucs have no chance at 9-8 IMO there will be to many NFC teams with better records. Their only hope is a better record at the end then the Falcons.

  25. Bartow Buc Says:

    With our superior backfield ( Bucky, White, Tucker ) and incredible offensive depth and complexity- We got this !!

    Go Bucs !! Beat the Panthers !!

  26. orlbucfan Says:

    The difference in this one is Bucs have the better Defense.

  27. FortMyersDave Says:

    Bowles must realize that a loss to Carolina will probably be the last nail in his coffin. His ineptitude, his predictable soft zone D, refusal to make adjustments and timid play not to lose mentality in losses to the ATL twice, KC and the Niners have put him in that sitiation. Plus Canales has seen Bowles D and could exploit it. If that happens, Baker and the boys will need to score over 30. I think Baker gets more than that, Bucs 38 Carolina 33…..

  28. Saskbucs Says:

    I wouldn’t say the Panthers have a better roster right now than last year. Better coach and better OL with the guys they brought in. Best guys on D are out for the year. Brown and LB drawing blank on his name.

    I think the Bucs have their way Sunday just like vs NY. Running game too strong behind that OL.

  29. Herbiebuc Says:

    4x nfc south champions !
    Another boat parade !
    I’m calling it now ! 🏴‍☠️

  30. adam from ny Says:

    if we win the game by a score of 57-21 i will be a happy camper…

    happy thanksgiving !

  31. adam from ny Says:

    i posted this a few days back on the wrong thread…yeah i do that sometimes…off topic posts…guilty as charged…but it sits well under this thread, so i’m posting it below…

    otherwise i’m generally being a pretty good boy, generally respectful to the two joes, because they are the site generals,,,

    ———————-

    i swear i think carolina takes a major setback this weekend…

    they’re much improved and playing well of late…

    but i think we blow them out on sunday and for this said week they take a step back…

    davey cantaloupes has things going in the right direction over there, and we’ve gotta watch out for them in the second game back here in tampa…

    but i’m vibing that their cookie crumbles against a high flying bucs squad late sunday afternoon…

    shut down chubba completely!…and leave it all on their tiny quarterback’s back…equals failure for them…

    just a hunch

  32. Scotty Mack Says:

    The one game people seem to be giving the Bucs that I think will be their ultimate demise is week 18, the final game of the year against the Saints. If they win the five games before that (including against the Chargers) it won’t matter, but I don’t see that happening. I sure hope I am wrong.

  33. Noclu4u Says:

    Every game is a must win the rest of the way . Look for ME13 to have a good game . He has had big games against the Panthers 2 of the last 3 meetings. Bucs better not take this game lightly . This Carolina team is much improved. . Bryce Young is playing with the most confidence of his young career. Look for Bucky Irving to have a big game .
    Bucs 31-26