Mock Draft IIMarch 10th, 2011
The Commish, Justin Pawlowski of WDAE-AM 620, has cranked out another one of his manbeast mock drafts. All part of the daily draft coverage on JoeBucsFan.com. Crack open a cold one or order some takeout from Mugs Grill & Bar and enjoy.
Feel free to tell The Commish what you think in the comments.
1. Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton – QB – Auburn
6’5’’ – 248 lbs – 4.59
Needs: CB, DT, DE, WR, QB
Commish’s Take: All indications point to the Panthers taking Newton. Head coach Ron Rivera went to Auburn’s pro day and paid most of his attention to Newton and not Fairley. I wouldn’t discount a possible smokescreen here to try and get a team to pay a hefty price to trade up for Newton.
2. Denver Broncos – Marcell Dareus – DT – Alabama
6’3’’ – 319 lbs – 4.92
Needs: DT, DE, CB, S
Commish’s Take: John Fox seems ok with Dumerville and Ayers as his ends in Denver’s revamped 4-3 defense. Recent releases by the Broncos put a big red flag up at the defensive tackle position. Reports out now say that if the Broncos go with a defensive tackle, they’ll go with Dareus. I think Dareus is a good fit for Jon Fox’s defense and will be what Kris Jenkins was in Carolina.
3. Buffalo Bills – JJ Watt – DE – Wisconsin
6’5’’ – 290 lbs – 4.82
Needs: DE, QB, WR, LB
Commish’s Take: Surprised? You have to shake it up a bit. If my mock draft looked like everyone else’s, I’d be as bad as everyone else. Watt is a very good fit for the Bills if Newton is gone and they aren’t sold on Gabbert. The Bills had an absolutely terrible run defense in 2010. Watt should step right in and start for the Bills.
4. Cincinnati Bengals – AJ Green – WR – Georgia
6’4’’ – 211 lbs – 4.50
Needs: WR, QB, DT
Commish’s Take: No change with this pick. I know the popular pick for the Bengals now is Blaine Gabbert, but I think the Bengals should still be able to get a good quarterback at the top of the 2nd round. Instead of risking it all with Gabbert, I thought the Bengals would be better of getting an outstanding receiver for their 2nd round quarterback to throw to.
5. Arizona Cardinals – Von Miller – OLB – Texas A&M
6’3’’ – 246 lbs – 4.49
Needs: OLB, CB, OT, QB
Commish’s Take: This is a pick that I just can’t change. The only way I see the Cardinals not getting Miller is if some team in the top-4 takes him, which could happen. Miller is outstanding off the edge, and a great fit for the Cardinals 3-4 defense.
6. Cleveland Browns – Julio Jones – WR – Alabama
6’3’’ – 220 lbs – 4.39
Needs: WR, DE, OLB, TE, NT
Commish’s Take: There have been rumblings that the Browns want a defensive lineman with this pick, but with Mike Holmgren in charge and the hiring of an offensive mind in Pat Shurmur as head coach, I find it hard for the Browns to pass on Jones. Shurmur’s offense featured many quick passes with the Rams last year, which would be best suited for a big receiver like Jones.
7. San Francisco 49ers – Patrick Peterson – CB – LSU
6’0’’ – 219 lbs – 4.34
Needs: QB, DE, OLB, CB, S
Commish’s Take: With a lack of big need for a corner in the top-6 picks, the 49ers benefit from a falling Peterson. Peterson might be the safest pick in the draft. Not only could he be a shutdown corner for years, but he’ll be a nice contributor on special teams as well.
8. Tennessee Titans – Nick Fairley – DT – Auburn
6’4’’ – 291 – 4.87
Needs: DT, CB, QB, OG
Commish’s Take: The Titans have a big need at quarterback, but Fairley will be nice in the middle of the Titans’ defensive line that already has a huge hole. To beat the Colts, you must apply constant pressure on Peyton Manning. The Titans will hope that Fairley and last year’s 1st round pick, Derrick Morgan, give them that pressure.
9. Dallas Cowboys – Da’Quan Bowers – DE – Clemson
6’3’’ – 280 lbs – DNP
Needs: DE, OT, OG, CB, S
Commish’s Take: Bowers’ health is one of the biggest questions in the draft world right now. Other then being an unofficial Polish holiday, April Fool’s Day will be a huge day in the draft process as that is the day of Da’Quan Bowers pro day. If he’s healthy and performs the way he did all year, he’ll be in the running for the 1st overall pick. If not, he might start to plummet. Right now, I like him to the Cowboys to spice up their defensive line.
10. Washington Redskins – Robert Quinn – DE – North Carolina
6’4’’ – 265 lbs – 4.70
Needs: QB, WR, DE, OLB
Commish’s Take: The recent release of Andre Carter opened up a small enough crack for the Redskins to consider filling that void in the draft. Brian Orakpo paired with Robert Quinn could end up being hell on opposing quarterbacks. Speaking of quarterbacks, Mike Shanahan could still target QBs like Colin Kaepernick or Andy Daulton in the next couple rounds.
11. Houston Texans – Prince Amukamara – CB – Nebraska
6’0’’ – 206 lbs – 4.43
Needs: OLB, DE, CB, WR
Commish’s Take: Aldon Smith would make a lot of sense here as an outside linebacker for the Texans new 3-4 defense, but there wasn’t even close to a worse pass defense in the NFL last year. Amukamara silenced critics of his speed at the combine by running in the 4.4’s.
12. Minnesota Vikings – Blaine Gabbert – QB – Missouri
6’4’’ – 234 lbs – 4.62
Needs: QB, DE, OT, OG
Commish’s Take: A little bit of a slide for Gabbert, but this seems about the right slot for him to go. He is a talented quarterback, but wouldn’t grade out as high in other years against other quarterbacks. The Vikings have an obvious need for a quarterback, and Gabbert would have an opportunity to start right away. Whatever QB the Vikings do draft will have an excellent chance to succeed right away with the weapons already in place.
13. Detroit Lions – Tyron Smith – OT – USC
6’5’’ – 307 lbs – DNP
Needs: OT, CB, OLB, DE
Commish’s Take: The Lions have big needs at both offensive tackle positions. Tyron Smith is starting to distance himself as the draft’s top offensive lineman. Smith has excellent technique, long arms, and bulked up to 307 lbs. The Lions need to start protecting their investment in Matthew Stafford and not allow him to get injured anymore.
14. St. Louis Rams – Aldon Smith – DE – Missouri
6’4’’ – 263 lbs – 4.78
Needs: WR, TE, DE, DT
Commish’s Take: Smith is the prototypical defensive lineman that Steve Spagnuolo has gone after since his days as the Giants defensive coordinator. Smith is tall, lean, and with long arms. Much like Jason Pierre-Paul last year, Smith is a raw pass rusher with a ton of potential. Hell, he’s even a local product.
15. Miami Dolphins – Gabe Carimi – OT – Wisconsin
6’7’’ – 314 lbs – 5.27
Needs: RB, OT, NT, QB
Commish’s Take: What?!?!? Where the hell is Mark Ingram? Well, Ingram has been the popular pick here, but when are teams going to wisen up and realize that running backs can be had later on in the draft. I know Bill Parcells is gone, but his mentality has not gone from the Dolphins front office or coaching staff. They want big, mean, and nasty players who are willing to work hard. Carimi could come right in and play right tackle while moving Vernon Carey inside to guard. With Jake Long at left tackle, the Dolphins would have a very big and talented offensive line.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars – Cameron Jordan – DE – Cal.
6’4’’ – 287 lbs – 4.78
Needs: DE, OLB, S, WR, OG
Commish’s Take: Last year, the Jaguars shocked everyone with their selection of Tyson Alualu from Cal. This year, they could shock everyone by taking a quarterback like Christian Ponder here. Instead, I have them getting Alualu’s teammate from Cal, Cameron Jordan. Jordan was great at the Senior Bowl and will finally give the Jaguars the end they’ve been looking for.
17. N. E. Patriots (via OAK) – Muhammad Wilkerson – DE – Temple
6’4’’ – 315 lbs – 4.93
Needs: DE, OLB, WR, RB, OL
Commish’s Take: The Patriots have a ton of picks, so they are going to be able to load up on positions that need some improving. Wilkerson’s stock is on the rise, and some scouts absolutely love him at end in a 3-4 defense. Wilkerson should fit right into the rotation for the Patriots. He has a similar body type to Richard Seymour and other ends the Patriots have had.
18. San Diego Chargers – Akeem Ayers – OLB – UCLA
6’2’’ – 254 lbs – 4.80
Needs: LB, DE, RT, WR
Commish’s Take: The Chargers have major questions at all their linebacker spots. Ayers took some heat for a slow 40-yard dash at the combine, but he can play and is a good fit for a 3-4 defense. I think Ayers could play inside or outside linebacker right away for the Chargers’ defense.
19. New York Giants – Anthony Castonzo – OT – Boston College
6’7’’ – 311 lbs – 5.23
Needs: OT, MLB, OG
Commish’s Take: David Diehl is better at guard, so the Giants need to find another tackle to pair with William Beatty. Castonzo has great potential and the work ethic to reach that potential. He lacks in lower body strength, but his technique and quickness are great. I think Castonzo will be a good fit at left tackle over time for the Giants. Also, Tom Coughlin has a special place in his heart for players from Boston College.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Martez Wilson – LB – Illinois
6’4’’ – 250 lbs – 4.49
Needs: DE, LB, CB, OT, OG
Commish’s Take: The bullets will be flying with this pick. How could I have the Bucs passing on a defensive end? I absolutely think Ryan Kerrigan and Justin Houston will be in the discussion here along with players from other positions, but haven’t you seen enough mock drafts with the Bucs taking one of those players. Somebody needed the balls to give the Bucs someone different, and that someone is me! The overwhelming consensus is that Martez Wilson is the top middle linebacker in this class by far. Sure, it’s a poor group of middle linebackers, but the size and speed combination that Wilson has would look very nice to a lot of people in the middle of the Bucs defense. If Barrett Ruud, who’s a free agent, is indeed on his way out, who do you think will take over for him? Adam Hayward? Wilson is great at blitzing and obviously has the speed to get to the deep middle in the “Tampa 2.” As a bonus, Wilson could line up as an outside rush backer when the Bucs go to a 3-4 defense. Wilson’s probably rated as a late 1st or early 2nd round player, but if the Bucs want a player like this, they’ll have to grab him here.
21. Kansas City Chiefs – Brooks Reed – OLB – Arizona
6’2’’ – 263 lbs – 4.68
Needs: OLB, NT, OT,WR, OG
Commish’s Take: Reed is on the rise after a great combine and because he looks so much like Clay Matthews. I like Reed off the edge and a team like the Chiefs fits perfect for him. Some people might think that this is a little high for Reed, but I bet his stock continues to rise all the way till draft day. This seems like a classic Scott Pioli pick.
22. Indianapolis Colts – Mike Pouncey – OG – Florida
6’5’’ – 303 lbs – 5.28
Needs: OL, CB, LB
Commish’s Take: The Colts need to just take the best offensive lineman available. Pouncey can come in right away and play guard for the Colts. He could then eventually take over at center, after learning how to shotgun snap, of course.
23. Philadelphia Eagles – Jimmy Smith – CB – Colorado
6’2’’ – 211 lbs – 4.46
Needs: CB, OT, OG, OLB
Commish’s Take: Jimmy Smith reminds me a lot of Aqib Talib. He’s got all the talent in the world, but he also has a ton of baggage. The Eagles have a huge need at corner, so this seems like a good place for the Eagles to take a risk on a player that could give you a big reward.
24. New Orleans Saints – Ryan Kerrigan – DE – Purdue
6’4’’ – 267 lbs – 4.71
Needs: DE, OLB
Commish’s Take: I really have little doubt that the Saints will look to improve their front 7 on defense in the first cuple rounds of this draft. They already brought in Shaun Rogers this offseason, but they do have a need at end opposite of Will Smith. Since Smith already plays right end, I eliminated Adrian Clayborn from this pick, since he can only play right end due to his right arm being smaller than his left arm. Kerrigan could come in and play wherever Gregg Williams wanted him to play.
25. Seattle Seahawks – Jake Locker – QB – Washington
6’2’’ – 231 lbs – 4.59
Needs: QB, OG, DE, DT, CB
Commish’s Take: There have been recent reports that the Seahawks do not like Locker. Does anyone smell anything? It might be BS coming from the Seahawks. Why would you float a story like that out there? Anyways, I’ll stick with the Seahawks keeping Locker home and taking over for the departing Matt Hasselbeck.
26. Baltimore Ravens – Titus Young – WR – Boise St.
5’11’’ – 174 lbs – 4.53
Needs: CB, WR(speed), OC, S
Commish’s Take: The Ravens have a huge need for a speed receiver. Their receiving corps last year might have been one of the slowest groups the NFL has seen in years. You can go ahead and pick your poison here. Speed receivers in this draft include Young, Torrey Smith (from Maryland), Leonard Hankerson, Randall Cobb, and Jerel Jernigan. I like Jernigan a lot but think Young is the flashy player the Ravens are seeking. Any of the aforementioned receivers could go with this pick though.
27. Atlanta Falcons – Justin Houston – DE – Georgia
6’3’’ – 270 lbs – 4.68
Needs: DT, DE, WR, TE
Commish’s Take: The Falcons need someone that can get to the quarterback other than John Abraham. Justin Houston is a local product that can come in and contribute immediately. He needs to learn better technique and more moves as a pass rusher, but he has a lot of natural ability. If Houston continues to think he can just win with speed off the edge, he’ll go on to be a bust from this draft.
28. New England Patriots – Mark Ingram – RB – Alabama
5’9’’ – 215 lbs – 4.62
Needs: see above
Commish’s Take: This seems like the right spot for a player like Ingram. Could we look back and say, “wow, I can’t believe he lasted that long?” Well, sure. However, in this day and age in the NFL, you can pick up a running back off the street, like Arian Foster, and he goes on to win the rushing title. There just isn’t a high value on running backs in the draft anymore. Ingram is a very good back with great vision. I think he’ll be a great addition for the Patriots.
29. Chicago Bears – Corey Liugett – DT – Illinois
6’2’’ – 298 lbs – 4.99
Needs: OT, OG, WR, DT
Commish’s Take: The Bears have big needs along the offensive line, but instead replace the recently departed Tommie Harris with a local product. Liugett is very solid against the run and as pass rusher.
30. New York Jets – Phil Taylor – NT – Baylor
6’3’’ – 334 lbs – 5.20
Needs: NT, DE, CB, WR
Commish’s Take: Phil Taylor is big and mean. The Jets need more toughness and youth along their defensive line. Seems like a good fit to me. Taylor can play nose tackle or end.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers – Marcus Cannon – OT – TCU
6’5’’ – 358 lbs – 5.26
Needs: CB, OT, OG
Commish’s Take: Cannon just has the look of a Steelers massive offensive lineman. Flozell Adams seems to be safe for another year, but Cannon could come in and play guard for a year before moving to right tackle.
32. Green Bay Packers – Nate Solder – OT – Colorado
6’8’’ – 307 lbs – 5.05
Needs: OT, DE, OLB
Commish’s Take: After getting Bryan Bulaga after he fell last year, the Packers get another offensive tackle that fell this year. There are concerns that Solder might have a tough time keeping weight on his tall body, but that’s nothing beer and brats won’t fix!
1 (33). N. E. Patriots (via CAR) – Stefan Wisniewski – OC/OG – Penn St.
Commish’s Take: The Patriots have to start looking to their interior line. Wisniewski is ready to come in and play immediately.
2 (34). Buffalo Bills – Ryan Mallett – QB – Arkansas
Commish’s Take: The Bills need a quarterback with a strong enough arm to throw through the elements.
3 (35). Cincinnati Bengals – Christian Ponder – QB – FSU
Commish’s Take: Ponder is ideal fit for Jay Gruden’s west-coast style of offense. He also has a great receiver to throw to now in AJ Green.
4 (36). Denver Broncos – Mikel Leshoure – RB – Illinois
Commish’s Take: Yep, the Broncos have Knowshon Moreno, but John Fox has never been afraid to have two running backs. Leshoure will be to Moreno what Jonathon Stewart was to DeAngelo Williams.
5 (37). Cleveland Browns – Cameron Heyward – DE – Ohio St.
Commish’s Take: The Browns stay local and get a big boost for their defensive line. If he stays healthy, Heyward could become great for the Browns.
6 (38). Arizona Cardinals – Brandon Harris – CB – Miami
Commish’s Take: The Cardinals need a corner opposite of Rogers-Cromartie. Harris is a man-to-man corner who should thrive in the Cardinals type of 3-4 defense.
7 (39). Tennessee Titans – Danny Watkins – OG – Baylor
Commish’s Take: Mike Munchak takes over as head coach and doesn’t get an offensive lineman? Look for the Titans to target Andy Daulton in the 3rd round.
8 (40). Dallas Cowboys – Derek Sherrod – OT – Miss. St.
Commish’s Take: The Cowboys get a gift with Sherrod falling to them in the 2nd round. Sherrod could come in and compete for a starting job right away.
9 (41). Washington Redskins – Colin Kaepernick – QB – Nevada
Commish’s Take: Mike Shanahan gets a quarterback with a ton of mobility and possibly the strongest arm in the draft. Kaepernick is a good quarterback for Shanahan to mold.
10 (42). Houston Texans – Dontay Moch – LB – Nevada
Commish’s Take: The Texans need a threat off the edge. Moch played end at Nevada, but at 248 lbs, he’s best in the NFL at outside linebacker especially in a 3-4 defense.
11 (43). Minnesota Vikings – Marvin Austin – DT – North Carolina
Commish’s Take: Austin wowed everyone at the combine. He’ll be a great replacement for Pat Williams.
12 (44). Detroit Lions – Adrian Clayborn – DE – Iowa
Commish’s Take: Clayborn slides because of concerns, but continues to help the Lions build a great defensive line.
13 (45). San Francisco 49ers – Christian Ballard – DE – Iowa
Commish’s Take: The 49ers failed with Kentwan Balmer, so they need someone to come in and man the end position in their 3-4 defense. Ballard was nearly unblockable at the Senior Bowl.
14 (46). Denver Broncos (via MIA) – Aaron Williams – CB – Texas
Commish’s Take: With needs at corner and safety, why not grab a guy that could potentially play either. Williams might slip because teams don’t know if he’s a corner or a safety, but a team that has needs for both will take a shot on him.
15 (47). St. Louis Rams – Jonathon Baldwin – WR – Pitt.
Commish’s Take: The Rams get their big time receiver for Bradford. Baldwin has to fine tune his game, but this is great value for him.
16 (48). Oakland Raiders – Ras-I Dowling – CB – Virginia
Commish’s Take: What’s that you say? Dowling is not worth a 2nd round pick? Well, when has the Raiders taken a player that was worth where they were drafted? Dowling is big and fast. Enough said!
17 (49). Jacksonville Jaguars – Rodney Hudson – OC/OG – FSU
Commish’s Take: Hudson could come in and play guard or center for the Jaguars.
18 (50). San Diego Chargers – Benjamin Ijalana – OT/OG – Villanova
Commish’s Take: The Chargers get help along their offensive line. Ijalana would be a nice fit at right tackle.
19 (51). Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jabaal Sheard – DE – Pitt
Commish’s Take: Sheard is a technician as a pass rusher with many different moves to get to the quarterback. He should develop well. I think the Bucs should target his college teammate, Greg Romeus, in the 3rd round.
20 (52). New York Giants – Bruce Carter – LB – North Carolina
Commish’s Take: The Giants get Carter who could come in and play outside or inside linebacker for them. Injuries are a concern with Carter.
21 (53). Indianapolis Colts – Rahim Moore – S – UCLA
Commish’s Take: With Bob Sanders gone, the Colts get a chance to grab the draft’s top safety. Unfortunately, with this class of safeties, that’s not saying much.
22 (54). Philadelphia Eagles – Jason Pinkston – OT/OG – Pitt.
Commish’s Take: You knew Andy Reid had to get an offensive lineman. Pinkston can play guard or tackle.
23 (55). Kansas City Chiefs – Leonard Hankerson – WR – Miami
Commish’s Take: The Chiefs get another regular wide out to play opposite of Dwayne Bowe.
24 (56). New Orleans Saints – Mason Foster – LB – Washington
Commish’s Take: Continuing to bolster their front 7 on defense, Mason Foster is a sure tackler who’s also a good blitzer for Gregg Williams defense.
25 (57). Seattle Seahawks – Stephen Paea – DT – Oregon St.
Commish’s Take: Paea set a record on the bench press at the combine. I’m sure many thought he’d go higher, but as you can see, this draft has better depth in the first three rounds than first anticipated.
26 (58). Baltimore Ravens – Curtis Marsh – CB – Utah St.
Commish’s Take: The Ravens need a corner and Marsh has kind of flown under the radar so far. He has a good combination of size and speed.
27 (59). Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Rudolph – TE – Notre Dame
Commish’s Take: If Rudolph checks out healthy at his pro day, his stock will rise. Right now, the Falcons get their heir to Tony Gonzalez.
28 (60). New England Patriots – Randall Cobb – WR – Kentucky
Commish’s Take: The Patriots need to get Tom Brady some weapons to work with in the passing game. I picked Cobb for the Patriots here because he is a better route runner than the receivers left. He seems like a Patriots receiver already.
29 (61). San Diego Chargers (via NYJ) – Jerel Jernigan – WR – Troy
Commish’s Take: I think the Chargers could use a little flash on offense and in special teams. When I watch Jernigan on film, there is just something special about him. Don’t be shocked if he does end up going much earlier than this.
30 (62). Chicago Bears – Greg Little – WR – North Carolina
Commish’s Take: Little has some character concerns, but also has everything you want from a No. 1 receiver. This is exactly what the Bears need.
31 (63). Pittsburgh Steelers – Curtis Brown – CB – Texas
Commish’s Take: The Steelers pass defense was a little shaky in 2010. Brown might have been overshadowed at Texas by Aaron Williams, but he should be a good fit in man coverage run by Pittsburgh.
32 (64). Green Bay Packers – Torrey Smith – WR – Maryland
Commish’s Take: The Packers are in a good position because they just don’t have many needs. What the hell, let’s give them one of the fastest receivers in the draft. I think the Packers might need a little more speed in their receiving corps.