Warren Sharp: Bucs Have No. 11 Strength Of Schedule

April 16th, 2024


Warren Sharp doesn’t play by normal rules.

The famed handicapper turned stat geek is not one to follow the pied piper that a strength of schedule is based on the opponent’s records from the previous season. Rather, Sharp likes to go by the Vegas spring-published season-win totals. This, he believes, is a more accurate gauge.

Sharp isn’t exactly off base. Joe remembers former Bucs coach Dirk Koetter used to say a team typically changes about 30 percent of its roster from year to year. Based on that foundation alone, one can see how a previous team’s record often has no bearing on how it will play the following season.

(Joe guesses the best way to measure strength of schedule would be the number of returning starters, which is a pretty good barometer in college ball.)

So just based on the Vegas season-win totals, Sharp says the Bucs have the No. 11 strength of schedule, as in the 11th easiest. And if you align with Sharp’s findings, this could be good news for the Bucs.

* Of the 15 teams that actually had the easiest 2023 schedules, 10 went to the playoffs (Cowboys, Packers, Texans, Bills, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Eagles, Lions, 49ers, and Chiefs) with 9-of-15 going over their win total.

* Of the 17 teams that actually had the hardest 2023 schedules, only 4 went to the playoffs (Steelers, Browns, Ravens, and Rams) with 4-of-17 going over their win total.

Of course, it helps the Bucs a great deal that they play in a bad division. When people sing hosannas that a habitual big game choke artist, 36, trying to come back from a blown Achilles, is the answer to Atlanta’s prayers and will catapult the Dixie Chicks to win the division, you know it is a bad division.

BetMGM has the Bucs’ season-win total at 7.5.

34 Responses to “Warren Sharp: Bucs Have No. 11 Strength Of Schedule”

  1. elite bucs Says:

    thats being thrown off by two games against the falcons who everyone including vegas think are gonna kick tampas tail twice this year. Im not buying it

  2. Let ‘em bake Says:

    Last years schedule wasn’t easy. When you face bills, niners, packers, lions, and eagles , you have your work cut out for you. This year, like last year, Bucs have a first place schedule. It will be difficult, but Bucs will notch another division🙏🏻

  3. Pickgrin Says:

    Bucs are the Rodney Dangerfield of football franchises.

    No Respect…. No Respect at all…..

    Bet the over. Easy money.

    NO WAY the 2024 Buccaneers win less than 8 games.

    Even with a “difficult” schedule – This is a 10 or 11 win team.

  4. ATLBUC Says:

    BetMGM has the Bucs’ season-win total at 7.5.
    They had it at 6 last season so that means we should win 12 games

  5. Boss Says:

    to hell with the schedule….

    last year our division was a dumpster fire.

    this year carolina has our old coach, knows our game and has a great D, Atl got a QB that can pick us apart and NO always has our number.

    we will be licky to finish .500. I expect us to win 2 of 6

    then the chiefs, 49ers, cowboys, ravens, detroit

    thats 9 losses right there

  6. Bucs Guy Says:

    Bucs will win 8 or more. Put money on it.
    I think the Bucs go 10-7.

  7. SB~LV Says:

    Draft overload
    Oh BTW on draft night skip the overproduced official NFL serving of melodrama and watch the Pat MacAffee fun version, unless he has been restrained by his new contract.
    Unless one of the Bucs top prospects are available @26 I would love to trade back into the second round and get a few more picks.

  8. Buddha Says:

    small sample

  9. Buc4evr Says:

    Get a decent edge, a center, and a LG, and this team could be at 10 or 11 wins. I can’t imagine Coen being as bad as Canales at OC, so I look for this team to score more points this season.

  10. Scotty Mack Says:

    If you follow the link, you’ll see that the Falcons have the easiest schedule in the league. That does not bode well for the Bucs in a division where only one team is expected to make the playoffs.

  11. Beejezus-belt Says:

    Sharp also said the Bucs had a hard schedule last year, based on rest days or something of the sorts. So what was it, was it easy, was it hard. Does it matter? Just win the games you’re supposed to win and the division is still there for the Bucs to take.

  12. SlyPirate Says:

    I believe this is a the same as last year. Atlanta and NOLA had the easiest schedules and the Bucs had one of the harder schedules.

    Been here before. Nothing new.

  13. kgh4life Says:

    People are acting as if it’s set in stone. The games have to be played.

  14. Mark A Swygert Says:

    Division winners have first place schedules, which are a little tougher than our AFC south opposition which didn’t win the division. You make this sound like some sort of conspiracy, but this is true of every division in the NFL. The schedule makers do this on purpose because they want parity and competitiveness throughout. They want to see every team have some success to keep fan interest high in every city. That’s why Detroit is getting so much love lately. They finally hired the right HC and GM, Unless you do, success is not a sure thing, as the last 30 years in Detroit clearly showed. The Bucs will have to earn their wins, but I think they are capable of winning more than 8 games.

  15. Buccaneer Bonzai Says:

    Let ‘em bake Says:
    “Last years schedule wasn’t easy. When you face bills, niners, packers, lions, and eagles , you have your work cut out for you.”

    Last year was extremely easy. You name 5 teams…12 other games were easy. If our division was tougher last year, no way would we have won it, or even made the playoffs.

    Even against easy teams, we still managed to go 1-6 for a streak.

  16. Buc1987 Says:


    There ya go Joe all I had to do was add a d.

  17. catcard202 Says:

    Bet the over!!! With Coen dialing up the OFF, Bucs will win at least 9-10 & be in the hunt for the NFC South again! Book it!!!

  18. Buccaneer Bonzai Says:

    @Mark A Swygert

    I agree we have the right GM. On the HC? I’m skeptical.

    But…I’m curious about this new OC…and if he can make our offense into a better one, and if Bowels keeps improving the defense…anything can happen.

    For now, I am in on the current staff and starting QB. But its a thin line for me.

    Bowels needs to improve game and clock management, and get us a pass rush.
    OC (forget name) needs to protect the QB better and improve the run game.
    Mayfield…well…he needs to prove he can consistently be good. Last year he had too many rollercoaster performances. With good protection I want to see if he can improve his performance.

    In my eyes, Mayfield earned the starting role for this year…but that doesn’t mean he was good enough to keep it. That’s what he needs to prove to me this year.

    And the team needs to make sure he has great protection so:
    1. No excuses
    2. If we need to start a backup, they will have to best chance at success as well.

  19. Buccaneer Bonzai Says:

    Boss Says:
    “we will be licky to finish .500.”

    Is that even possible now?

    I guess if we tie a couple games?

  20. adam from ny Says:

    yo…….this years schedule is rough af !

    i know it’s early, but i’m going to say our ceiling or max wins is 11 this year…

    last year i said the ceiling was 10…while some pundits had us at 2-6 wins…

    i’ll gladly take a 10-7 season for 2024 – this schedule is rough af

  21. adam from ny Says:

    to win 11 this year, you’ve basically gotta win 2 out of every 3 games you play…

    that’s gonna be a tall order with this schedule

  22. A Bucs Fan Says:

    It all hinges on if the Bucs offense can take a big step forward this season. Even with a new play caller. The offense MUST score more points this season to remain in the hunt.

  23. Boss Says:

    wake and bake will not finish the season. they better get trask some protection!

  24. Crickett Baker Says:

    I am over-ready for a press conference from Liam Coen.

  25. Pa Bucs fan Says:

    You guys are all reading this incorrectly including @Joe I believe based on how you worded it, Sharp says Bucs have 11th easiest strength of schedule

  26. Marine Buc Says:

    Same as last season – 7 to 8 wins sounds about right to me.

    I hope the Bucs can surprise me and win a few more than that.

    I agree with Joe – Cousins in Atlanta is the big question mark in the NFC South.

  27. TampabayDJ Says:

    @ Boss – You continue to come on this site and fart out of your mouth !
    You are either the worst Bucs fan of all time, or you are a fake Bucs fan.
    Either way, take your self somewhere else with your trash remarks

  28. stpetebucfan Says:

    Strength of Schedule? Really? As Division winners this is the 4th straight season where the NFL attempts to give the Bucs the toughest schedule. It’s nothing new.

    I actually fear some of the truly crappy teams more than the real challenges. The Bucs seem to have a disturbing trend of playing down to their competition.

    Meanwhile this is an important year in the Division. The Saints are the only team to win 4 straight Division Crowns right before the Bucs started their current 3 season streak. The Panthers also won 3 in a row one stretch.

    I’d love the Bucs to match and then eventually eradicate the Stinkin Saint’s Division record even if it does mean the Bucs get the toughest schedule.

  29. Tony marks Says:

    IF you are looking to make a run then you shouldn’t be overly concerned with schedule.

  30. Joe in Michigan Says:

    Boss Says:
    April 16th, 2024 at 12:42 pm
    to hell with the schedule….

    last year our division was a dumpster fire.

    this year carolina has our old coach, knows our game and has a great D, Atl got a QB that can pick us apart and NO always has our number.

    we will be licky to finish .500. I expect us to win 2 of 6

    then the chiefs, 49ers, cowboys, ravens, detroit

    thats 9 losses right there
    Ah Boss, aka Mrs. Positive, the closet Saints fan that predicted doom and gloom last year! The girl that cried wolf too many times! Hahahaha

  31. adam from ny Says:

    as of right now…pre draft and where we seem to be…

    i see us finishing 9-8…and i don’t think that will be enough to win the division this year…someone will get double digit wins this year…

    our potential ceiling as i said is 11 wins…

    with 7 wins as our basement…

    so 9-8 for now…it’s a long way until september, so let’s see how it all goes before opening game kickoff

  32. First Name Greatest Says:

    Anyone who cries about the schedule lacks awareness that the ENTIRE division nearly plays the same opponents.

    Bucs play the 3 other NFC 1st place teams and one AFC 1st place finisher, outside of that they play the same teams as their division does.

    Season is 5 months away, lot can change in that timeframe worrying about who you will or won’t play is a loser mindset

  33. First Name Greatest Says:

    Anyone think the coaching genius of Dennis Allen with the Aints can post a winning record against teams/coaches like the Chiefs, Packers, Dallas, Philly, Cleveland, Chargers, or the Rams on the schedule?

    Raheem in ATL is a 1st year HC with an unproven play caller and a QB coming off a major injury who has a team that has to live up to the pre season hype. The last time he was a HC his team lost 10 straight to end the season. His team has to face teams like the Chiefs, Chargers, Vikings, Seahawks, Cowboys, Eagles, and Steelers

    I won’t waste time typing on Canales and Carolina, they are a last place team for the forseeable future

  34. Dave Pear Says:

    Jason needs to tell Bowels to hire a dedicate DC NOW and focus on elevating his genius to counseling troubled rookies and giving life advice. He’s proven he sucks as a combined DC/HC. I’d love to see what Andy Reid, John Harbaugh, Jim Harbaugh, Dan Campbell, Kyle Shanahan, or other excellent coaches could have done with the Bucs roster the last two years.

    Todd was gifted the job when he deserved to be fired after the Rams playoff debacle, followed by not showing up against the Cowboys the following year.

    If Jason can help him improve and he coaches the Bucs to 10 wins, maybe there is hope.

    One thing in his plus column – for whatever reason, Todd can mindhump Kirk Cousins, so there’s that.