“Red Flag” For Marqise LeeApril 30th, 2014
Lurking behind the paywall on BSPN.com lives all kinds of data on potential draft picks. It’s where stats gurus will tell you that Jadeveon Clowney isn’t a good pass rusher and explosive Southern California receiver Marquise Lee is a bust-in-waiting.
Lee is a consensus first-round pick after posting prolific numbers through his first three seasons.
Not so fast, says KC Joyner of BSPN, aka “The Football Scientist.”
Marqise Lee, WR, USC Trojans
Red flag: relatively low YPA when facing a cornerback or safety
According to a study I did reviewing the metrics of the top wide receivers in the 2014 NFL draft, Lee posted a 7.9 YPA when facing a cornerback or safety in direct coverage. That total ranked dead last among the eight pass-catchers in that analysis, and was more than 2 yards behind the next-lowest total in that statistic (Odell Beckham Jr., 10.0 YPA). It is also worth noting that the typical midpoint for an NFL wide receiver in this metric is generally in the 8.0 YPA range, so if Lee doesn’t improve this total, he may end up being a mid- to lower-tier wideout at the next level.
What a great example of the statistical appetizers the Bucs munch on routinely.
What does it all mean? Esteemed NFL Draft guru Mike Mayock says Lee is among the best five receivers in a very deep class of wideouts. Doesn’t Mayock, a former NFL safety, realize Lee can’t break free from a defensive back?
Perhaps Joyner is, in fact, on to something that could spook general managers. Lee is widely considered a late first-round pick. He’d look real nice on the board in the second round for the Bucs, especially if they have a shiny new quarterback already on the roster.
Joe can dream.