The Commish looks to the ACC and a dinged up yet talented linebacker for the Bucs second-round pick.
Here’s another manbeast of a mock draft from draft guru/WDAE-AM 620 radio personality Justin “The Commish” Pawlowski. It’s all part of the exclusive in-depth draft coverage at JoeBucsFan.com.
Feel free to debate The Commish’s picks with him today as he fills in for the dean of Tampa Bay sports radio, Steve Duemig, from 3 p.m to 6:30 p.m. on WDAE-AM 620. Those chained to a computer can listen online at 620wdae.com.
Grab a cold beverage and enjoy.
1st Round
1. Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton – QB – Auburn
6’5’’ – 248 lbs – 4.59
Needs: CB, DT, DE, WR, QB
Commish’s Take: It’s looking more and more clear that Cam Newton will be the first pick in the draft. He has all the ability, and if he does reach his potential, the NFC South would end up with the best collective group of starting quarterbacks in the NFL.
2. Denver Broncos – Marcell Dareus – DT – Alabama
6’3’’ – 319 lbs – 4.92
Needs: DT, DE, CB, S
Commish’s Take: Dareus is the top defensive tackle in the draft and the massive player John Fox likes in the middle of his defensive line. With a transition back to a 4-3 defense, it’s imperative that the Broncos find some defensive tackles since they currently only have two on their roster.
3. Buffalo Bills – Von Miller – OLB – Texas A&M
6’3’’ – 246 lbs – 4.49
Needs: DE, QB, WR, LB
Commish’s Take: I think the Bills would take Newton with this pick, but I think they’d pass on Gabbert. I don’t think Gabbert has the downfield accuracy to be successful in Chan Gailey’s offense. The Bills are desperate for help on the front 7 of their defense. Von Miller is the top hybrid linebacker in this draft and should make the Bills forget about Aaron Maybin.
4. Cincinnati Bengals – Blaine Gabbert – QB – Missouri
6’4’’ – 234 lbs – 4.62
Needs: WR, QB, DT
Commish’s Take: With Jay Gruden running the offense now in Cincinnati and the current quarterback not wanting to be there, I’m sure Gruden would want to get his own quarterback in as soon as possible. Gabbert is a good fit for Gruden’s west-coast style of offense.
5. Arizona Cardinals – Patrick Peterson – CB – LSU
6’0’’ – 219 lbs – 4.34
Needs: OLB, CB, OT, QB
Commish’s Take: There are a lot of rumors from every newspaper in Arizona that the Cardinals will be going defense in the 1st round. Well, with Gabbert off the board, there’s really no discussion. The big debate for the Cardinals is whether to draft a hybrid defensive end or maybe the best player in the draft. Peterson has been hyped as one of the best corners to come out in a long time. With Dominique Rogers-Cromartie on the other side, the Cardinals would be very tough to pass against.
6. Cleveland Browns – AJ Green – WR – Georgia
6’4’’ – 211 lbs – 4.50
Needs: WR, DE, OLB, TE, NT
Commish’s Take: I know the Browns need an end, but it’s just too hard to pass on AJ Green when you need a big time receiver. Green would immediately give the Browns a legit threat in the passing game. With this draft being so deep at defensive linemen, it might make sense to grab the best playmaker in the draft here.
7. San Francisco 49ers – Aldon Smith – DE – Missouri
6’4’’ – 263 lbs – 4.78
Needs: QB, DE, OLB, CB, S
Commish’s Take: With Peterson off the board, the 49ers could take Prince Amukamara or address their pass rush. Robert Quinn is a possibility, but Aldon Smith has been compared to Demarcus Ware and his stock is on the rise. The 49ers need something off the edge and Smith is one of the most dynamic pass rushers in the draft.
8. Tennessee Titans – Da’Quan Bowers – DE – Clemson
6’3’’ – 280 lbs – DNP
Needs: DT, CB, QB, OG
Commish’s Take: One of the hardest players to predict is Da’Quan Bowers. I don’t think he’ll fall past the early teens, but some people have him falling to the 20’s or beyond. The Titans want to revamp the type of defensive lineman they bring in. According to yahoo sports, the Titans have told Bowers that if he is there when they pick that they will select him. Nick Fairley is also a possibility, but if they feel Bowers is the better player, I have no doubts that they’ll select Bowers.
9. Dallas Cowboys – Tyron Smith – OT – USC
6’5’’ – 307 lbs – DNP
Needs: DE, OT, OG, CB, S
Commish’s Take: The Cowboys have a big need at offensive tackle and Smith is the top tackle in this class. At just 20 years old, Smith is one of the younger players in the draft, but he has superb technique and long arms which could help him become a very good left tackle in the NFL.
10. Washington Redskins – Julio Jones – WR – Alabama
6’3’’ – 220 lbs – 4.39
Needs: QB, WR, DE, OLB
Commish’s Take: The Redskins luck out a bit and get Jones to fall to their lap. Jones is a big receiver with skills similar to Terrell Owens. The Redskins need a receiver with Santana Moss heading to free agency. The Redskins could reach on a quarterback like Jake Locker here, but with Jones on the board, their pick got easy.
11. Houston Texans – Prince Amukamara – CB – Nebraska
6’0’’ – 206 lbs – 4.43
Needs: OLB, DE, CB, WR
Commish’s Take: The Texans pass defense was just awful last year. Prince Amukamara could come in and start immediately. Quinn could be a possibility here as an outside linebacker, but I think the Texans could address that position in the 2nd round.
12. Minnesota Vikings – Jake Locker – QB – Washington
6’2’’ – 231 lbs – 4.59
Needs: QB, DE, OT, OG
Commish’s Take: There is a lot of risk with Locker, but the Vikings are desperate for a franchise quarterback and might view Locker as a young Brett Favre. Locker is fiery, a leader, and has a strong arm. Accuracy is a major concern, but it might be too risky for the Vikings to wait on a quarterback until the 2nd round. They might miss completely on a quarterback entirely.
13. Detroit Lions – Robert Quinn – DE – North Carolina
6’4’’ – 265 lbs – 4.70
Needs: OT, CB, OLB, DE
Commish’s Take: Sure, the Lions need an offensive tackle, but I think it would be real tough to pass on Robert Quinn and pair him with Ndamukong Suh. The Lions would quickly be building one of the most electric defensive lines in the NFL.
14. St. Louis Rams – Nick Fairley – DT – Auburn
6’4’’ – 291 – 4.87
Needs: WR, TE, DE, DT
Commish’s Take: Once you get past the Titans, there just aren’t a lot of teams that need a defensive tackle until this pick. Fairley has some definite character issues that are also playing a factor. Everyone else’s mistake is the Rams gain. Fairley fits in very well with Steve Spagnuolo’s system and has the potential to thrive for a long time.
15. Miami Dolphins – Mike Pouncey – OG/OC – Florida
6’5’’ – 303 lbs – 5.28
Needs: RB, OT, NT, QB
Commish’s Take: Running bac has been the popular choice here, but I think the Dolphins can get running backs later in this draft and in free agency. I think the Dolphins will try like hell to trade down and acquire extra draft picks. If they can’t trade back, they will probably look to Improve the interior of their offensive line. Pouncey could step in and play guard or center for the Dolphins and help open lanes for whoever is running the ball.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars – Adrian Clayborn – DE – Iowa
6’3’’ – 281 lbs – 4.81
Needs: DE, OLB, S, WR, OG
Commish’s Take: I got to this pick with so many great defensive ends on the board, but something inside me kept telling me Adrian Clayborn here. Yes, I know it would be surprising, but the draft never goes smooth, and why wouldn’t the Jaguars be the team that really shakes things up. I was surprised to hear that Clayborn would be in NYC for the draft, and then a recent story said that Clayborn is expected to be a late teen or early 20’s pick. Jack Del Rio likes defensive players who are leaders and productive. Although his productivity fell off last year, Clayborn was dominant in 2009. Let’s try and this and see how it all plays out.
17. N. E. Patriots (via OAK) – Anthony Castonzo – OT – Boston College
6’7’’ – 311 lbs – 5.23
Needs: DE, OLB, WR, RB, OL
Commish’s Take: Castonzo has a lot of experience and potential as a stqarter at left tackle in the NFL. The Patriots need to address many areas of their team, and offensive line is near the top of the list. Castonzo should fit in well with the type of offense the Patriots run.
18. San Diego Chargers – JJ Watt – DE – Wisconsin
6’5’’ – 290 lbs – 4.82
Needs: LB, DE, RT, WR
Commish’s Take: I think the Chargers need linebackers, but taking one here would be a risk and possibly a reach. Watt could step right in and start at end in the Chargers 3-4 defense. Watt is big and very athletic. We can see the good depth in this draft when a player like Watt falls to the 18th pick.
19. New York Giants – Corey Liuget – DT – Illinois
6’2’’ – 298 lbs – 4.99
Needs: OT, MLB, OG
Commish’s Take: With Barry Coefield on the way out in free agency, the Giants need a disrupter in the middle of their defensive line for their “Tampa 2” defense. Liuget has been compared to Gerald McCoy and would be a nice fit as the under tackle for the Giants.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Cameron Jordan – DE – Cal.
6’4’’ – 287 lbs – 4.78
Needs: DE, LB, CB, OT, OG
Commish’s Take: Who would have thought that the Bucs would have their choice of Ryan Kerrigan and Cameron Jordan? I know that I wanted to give the Bucs Kerrigan, but the way this played out, I had to go with the more talented player. Jordan is bigger and stronger than Kerrigan and apparently a favorite of Raheem Morris. I also understand that Mark Dominik’s favorite might be Ryan Kerrigan. Most likely, their decision will be made by the teams in front of them, but in this case Jordan is the pick. If I’m Mark Dominik, I’m looking at Jordan as a left defensive end on 1st and 2nd down and end when the Bucs go to their 3-4 defense. I would then focus on getting another end to play the right side in the 2nd or 3rd round. Maybe that player could be Greg Romeus in the 3rd?
21. Kansas City Chiefs – Phil Taylor – NT – Baylor
6’3’’ – 334 lbs – 5.20
Needs: OLB, NT, OT, WR, OG
Commish’s Take: A great 3-4 defense starts with a big and nasty nose tackle in the middle of the defensive line. The Chiefs have not had that. Taylor is big and mean, and could take the Chiefs defense to the next level.
22. Indianapolis Colts – Derek Sherrod – OT – Miss. St.
6’5’’ – 321 lbs – 5.28
Needs: OL, CB, LB
Commish’s Take: Bill Polian said that he regretted not taking an offensive tackle in last year’s draft. He’s not making that mistake again. Sherrod can play tackle on either side of the line and is a very balanced offensive lineman. I’m not buying the talk that the Colts might draft the heir to Peyton Manning with this pick.
23. Philadelphia Eagles – Jimmy Smith – CB – Colorado
6’2’’ – 211 lbs – 4.46
Needs: CB, OT, OG, OLB
Commish’s Take: Sure, character is a concern, but Smith’s skills are awesome. He is very good in press and man coverage. If he keeps himself out of trouble, Smith could be a star for the Eagles.
24. New Orleans Saints – Cameron Heyward – DE – Ohio St.
6’5’’ – 294 lbs – DNP
Needs: DE, OLB, DT
Commish’s Take: The last time the Saints drafted a Heyward with the 24th pick in the draft was in 1988 when they selected Craig “Ironhead” Heyward who just happens to be Cameron Heyward’s father. The Saints have a big need at the end position opposite of Will Smith. Heyward is a great fit for Gregg Williams blitz scheme as he is strong enough to play the run, rush the passer, and take on multiple blockers.
25. Seattle Seahawks – Christian Ponder – QB – FSU
6’2’’ – 229 lbs – 4.65
Needs: QB, OG, DE, DT, CB
Commish’s Take: If the Seahawks are going to take a quarterback, the bezst fit for them is Christian Ponder. With Darrelle Bevel bringing his west-coast offense to the Seahawks, they need a quarterback with mobility and accuracy. Ponder has had issues with his throwing shoulder, but he has proved to have good accuracy and top intangibles. He would challenge Charlie Whitehurst immediately.
26. Baltimore Ravens – Muhammad Wilkerson – DE – Temple
6’4’’ – 315 lbs – 4.96
Needs: CB, WR(speed), OC, S, DE
Commish’s Take: The Ravens need some insurance for Corey Redding who will become a free agent next year. Wilkerson might be a project, but he has a ton of potential. Wilkerson’s big frame and athleticism should be a nice fit with the Ravens defense.
27. Atlanta Falcons – Ryan Kerrigan – DE – Purdue
6’4’’ – 267 lbs – 4.71
Needs: DT, DE, WR, TE
Commish’s Take: The Falcons need someone that can rush the passer other than John Abraham. Kerrigan slips a little in this mock draft, but don’t be fooled, he’s still an extremely good player. Kerrigan could step in for the Falcons and be a leader on their defense and team for 10 years.
28. New England Patriots – Akeem Ayers – OLB – UCLA
6’2’’ – 254 lbs – 4.80
Needs: see above
Commish’s Take: The Patriots need a rush off the edge. Ayers is a perfect fit for a 3-4 defense. He is big and shows good explosion. He is also a true linebacker, so there is no worry of his transitioning from end to a new position. He knows how to drop into coverage and how to play standing up.
29. Chicago Bears – Gabe Carimi – OT – Wisconsin
6’7’’ – 314 lbs – 5.27
Needs: OT, OG, WR, DT
Commish’s Take: There’s no secret that the Bears need offensive and defensive linemen. Carimi fits the mold of a Bears offensive lineman. He is big and physical. I think Carimi could play left tackle, but might be better suited for right tackle.
30. New York Jets – Justin Houston – DE – Georgia
6’3’’ – 270 lbs – 4.68
Needs: NT, DE, CB, WR
Commish’s Take: Some analysts have compared Justin Houston to Vernon Gholston, but if the Jets or any team worried about stuff like that, they would miss out on some great players. Houston has size, strength, and speed off the edge. Yes, he needs to learn other pass rushing moves, but he has talent. I think Houston is definitely worth the risk here.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers – Benjamin Ijalana – OT – Villanova
6’4’’ – 317 lbs – DNP
Needs: CB, OT, OG
Commish’s Take: I think the Steelers could use an upgrade over Flozell Adams at right tackle. Ijalana comes from lesser competition, but he has a lot of talent. Ijalana’s massive fram would be perfect at right tackle for the Steelers.
32. Green Bay Packers – Nate Solder – OT – Colorado
6’8’’ – 307 lbs – 5.05
Needs: OT, DE, OLB
Commish’s Take: After taking Bryan Bulaga last year, the Packers get his book end this year. For years, the Packers had Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher, and they never had to worry about either position. With this selection, the Packers have set themselves up for another 10 years of not worrying about either tackle position.
Round 2:
1 (33). N. E. Patriots (via CAR) – Mark Ingram – RB – Alabama
5’9’’ – 215 lbs – 4.62
Commish’s Take: Running backs have lost their luster a bit, but the Patriots jump at the shot at Ingram at the top of round 2. Ingram instantly becomes the Patriots premier back and will eventually become a leader on the team.
2 (34). Buffalo Bills – Ryan Mallett – QB – Arkansas
6’7’’ – 253 lbs – 5.50
Commish’s Take: Mallett’s strong arm can cut through the harsh Buffalo winters. He is a great fit for Chan Gailey’s vertical pass game.
3 (35). Cincinnati Bengals – Jonathon Baldwin – WR – Pitt.
6’4’’ – 228 lbs – 4.43
Commish’s Take: Baldwin has a great combination of size and speed. He immediately becomes Gabbert’s number one target.
4 (36). Denver Broncos – Kyle Rudolph – TE – Notre Dame
6’6’’ – 260 lbs – 4.80
Commish’s Take: John Fox never got his tight end in Carolina. Rudolph brings a different dimension to an offense.
5 (37). Cleveland Browns – Marvin Austin – DT – North Carolina
6’2’’ – 309 lbs – 4.90
Commish’s Take: The Browns need defensive linemen desperately. Austin’s stock is on the rise and he could end up being dominant in the NFL.
6 (38). Arizona Cardinals – Brooks Reed – OLB – Arizona
6’2’’ – 263 lbs – 4.68
Commish’s Take: Reed stays home and addresses a huge need for the Cardinals. He is a great fit off the edge in the Cardinals 3-4 defense.
7 (39). Tennessee Titans – Andy Daulton – QB – TCU
6’2’’ – 215 lbs – 4.87
Commish’s Take: The Titans have a big need for a quarterback. Daulton is a very good leader with top intangibles and good accuracy. With Kerry Collins already under contract, Daulton does not need to step in and play right away.
8 (40). Dallas Cowboys – Christian Ballard – DE – Iowa
6’4’’ – 283 lbs – 4.80
Commish’s Take: With Marcus Spears set for free agency, the Cowboys need an end. Ballard is a great fit at end in a 3-4 and was unblockable at the senior bowl.
9 (41). Washington Redskins – Colin Kaepernick – QB – Nevada
6’5’’ – 233 lbs – 4.53
Commish’s Take: Kaepernick is a little bit of a project, but a good fit for Mike Shanahan’s offense. Kaepernick is the fastest quarterback in the draft and might have the strongest arm.
10 (42). Houston Texans – Martez Wilson – LB – Illinois
6’4’’ – 250 lbs – 4.49
Commish’s Take: Martez Wilson will be moved from inside to outside linebacker and asked to do what he does best, and that’s rushing the passer.
11(43). Minnesota Vikings – Danny Watkins – OG – Baylor
6’3’’ – 310 lbs – 5.40
Commish’s Take: Watkins is one of the older players in the draft, but also one of the top guards as well.
12 (44). Detroit Lions – Brandon Harris – CB – Miami
5’10’’ – 191 lbs – 4.51
Commish’s Take: The Lions have big needs at corner. Harris has a lot of experience and would be an upgrade for the Lions.
13 (45). San Francisco 49ers – Ricky Stanzi – QB – Iowa
6’4’’ – 223 lbs – 4.93
Commish’s Take: This might be a reach, but it looks like the 49ers really like Stanzi and might reach on him in the 2nd round. Stanzi would compete for the 49ers starting job in year 1.
14 (46). Denver Broncos (via MIA) – Aaron Williams – CB – Texas
6’0’’ – 204 lbs – 4.51
Commish’s Take: Williams could play corner or safety. The good news is that the Broncos could use both.
15 (47). St. Louis Rams – Mikel Leshoure – RB – Illinois
6’0’’ – 227 lbs – 4.59
Commish’s Take: A wide receiver is definitely possible here, but insurance for Steven Jackson is also a priority. Leshoure’s running style has been compared to Jackson’s.
16 (48). Oakland Raiders – Ras-I Dowling – CB – Virginia
6’1’’ – 198 lbs – 4.46
Commish’s Take: Dowling is big and fast at the corner position. The Raiders lost Nnamdi Asomugha. It seems like this one has Al Davis written all over it.
17 (49). Jacksonville Jaguars – Stefan Wisniewski – OC/OG – Penn St.
6’3’’ – 313 lbs – 5.35
Commish’s Take: The Jaguars got their two offensive tackles a couple years ago, and now it’s time to get their future center. Wisniewski has good bloodlines and would give the Jaguars some really good offensive linemen.
18 (50). San Diego Chargers – Jabaal Sheard – DE – Pitt
6’3’’ – 264 lbs – 4.69
Commish’s Take: Sheard would move to outside linebacker with the Chargers and come off the edge opposite of Larry English. Sheard was a great pass rusher at Pitt.
19 (51). Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Bruce Carter – LB – North Carolina
6’2’’ – 241 lbs – DNP
Commish’s Take: The Bucs continue to address their defensive front 7. Carter has some injury issues, but is a very talented linebacker. He can play inside or outside, and plays with a lot of speed. Keep an eye on his injury status.
20 (52). New York Giants – James Carpenter – OT – Alabama
6’4’’ – 321 lbs – 5.28
Commish’s Take: I saw reports that thought Carpenter was the top tackle in this year’s draft. I’m not that certain, but I am certain that his stock is going up.
21 (53). Indianapolis Colts – Rahim Moore – S – UCLA
6’0’’ – 202 lbs – 4.62
Commish’s Take: The Colts were finally forced to cut ties with Bob Sanders. Moore is the top safety in this class and has very good ball skills in coverage.
22 (54). Philadelphia Eagles – Marcus Cannon – OT – TCU
6’5’’ – 358 lbs – 5.26
Commish’s Take: You know the Eagles are bound to take an offensive lineman sometime. Cannon is a massive lineman that could play right tackle or move inside to guard. He’s a good fit in the NFC East.
23 (55). Kansas City Chiefs – Leonard Hankerson – WR – Miami
6’2’’ – 209 lbs – 4.43
Commish’s Take: Hankerson isn’t the most polished receiver, but would provide an excellent complement to Dwayne Bowe.
24 (56). New Orleans Saints – Stephen Paea – DT – Oregon St.
6’1’’ – 303 lbs – DNP
Commish’s Take: Like Heyward, Paea is big and strong. He can take on multiple blockers allowing the linebackers and safeties to blitz the quarterback.
25 (57). Seattle Seahawks – Ryan Williams – RB – Va. Tech
5’9’’ – 212 lbs – 4.61
Commish’s Take: Williams might end up being the most talented back in this draft. If he stays healthy, he would be a great fit with his speed and excellent hands in the Seahawks new west- coast offense.
26 (58). Baltimore Ravens – Torrey Smith – WR – Maryland
5’11’’ – 174 lbs – 4.53
Commish’s Take: The Ravens need speed at receiver. Smith has potential, but there just is not enough consistency in his game to take him any higher than this.
27 (59). Atlanta Falcons – Titus Young – WR – Boise St.
5’11’’ – 174 lbs – 4.53
Commish’s Take: Young would bring a flash and an excitement to the Falcons offense.
28 (60). New England Patriots – Randall Cobb – WR – Kentucky
5’10’ – 191 lbs – 4.46
Commish’s Take: Cobb’s ability to run good routes and ability to run after the catch would fit in nicely with the Patriots offense.
29 (61). San Diego Chargers (via NYJ) – Jordan Cameron – TE – USC
6’5’’ – 254 lbs – 4.59
Commish’s Take: Antonio Gates has been banged up the past couple years, so it wouldn’t hurt to get a tight end who compares to him.
30 (62). Chicago Bears – Greg Little – WR – North Carolina
6’3’’ – 231 lbs – 4.53
Commish’s Take: The Bears need a No. 1 receiver. Little has all the talent of a No. 1, but his character is a question. If he keeps his behavior in check, the Bears might get a steal here.
31 (63). Pittsburgh Steelers – Curtis Brown – CB – Texas
6’0’’ – 184 lbs – 4.54
Commish’s Take: Brown’s stock is on the rise. He is not very physical, but is good in man coverage.
32 (64). Green Bay Packers – Dontay Moch – LB – Nevada
6’1’’ – 248 lbs – 4.44
Commish’s Take: The Packers need another outside linebacker to rush the passer. Moch’s size and speed combination is very intriguing.
The last thing the Bucs need in the draft is a defensive tackle, assuming Brian Price really is not a health concern, as Mark Dominik alluded to last week. 
Joe hates to be a tease, but Joe’s giving advance love here to an interview NFL Draft guru Justin Pawlowski had with FOX analyst Brian Billick.
Occasionally, Joe gets into an e-mail scuffle with a reader.
With the draft just two weeks away, that means smokescreens are everywhere and thicker than the haze in Jerramy Stevens’ car on a Saturday night.
There may be head-in-the-sand fans out there who think the 2011 Bears-Bucs game in England is another step toward Team Glazer moving the franchise to London and preparing to sell Josh Freeman jerseys to legions of crumpet munchers.
So are you freaking out about the possibility of the Bucs burning a first-round pick on stud running back prospect Mark Ingram? 
Joe’s got to give a hand to Tampa Bay Lightning and Tampa Bay Storm owner Jeff Vinik. In addition to the complete one-year transformation of the Lightning and massive upgrades to The Forum, Vinik went out and hired Derrick Brooks to run his fast-food/pinball football team.
First, let Joe say that he tries to avoid exposing himself to all the hype surrounding draft picks. Joe’s been around too long and been let down too many times. Let’s see a guy play in the NFL.
Not citing a source, so Joe is dubious, St. Pete Times Bucs beat writer Rick Stroud paints a picture of Team Glazer asking the NFL to snatch a home game from their local fans and move it to England.
Good health seems to be flowing freely among Bucs seriously injured last season, including Gerald McCoy, Brian Price, Cody Grimm and (gasp) Aqib Talib, and more.
