For An 0-4 Team, Bucs Are “Average”
October 8th, 2026
Better than 0-4.
Joe may be suspicious of some advanced stats (keyword: some), but there is one guy who traffics in numbers that when he speaks, Joe listens closely.
Aaron Schatz is the Father of DVOA, a stat he hatched that stresses efficiency. The former owner and operator of Football Outsiders (RIP), Schatz’s DVOA is widely recognized by both statheads and NFL teams as a pretty good measurement and indicator of solid play.
Well, Schatz ran his numbers and found the Bucs really are an average team, despite the losses piling up. The Bucs defense has played well, Schatz noted. The offense? Not so much.
What if I told you that the Texans and Buccaneers have actually been close to NFL average when you break down the play-by-play and look at their efficiency? Houston ranks 17th in the league and Tampa Bay ranks 18th. There are 150 teams since 1977 that have started the season either 0-4 or 0-3-1, and out of all of them, Houston and Tampa Bay rank third and fourth in DVOA. …
Meanwhile, in Tampa Bay, the young defense that some folks believed could be pretty good has, in fact, been pretty good. It ranks ninth in DVOA. But the offense looks rough, ranking 24th. Quarterback Baker Mayfield played poorly for three weeks and is now sidelined by a dislocated thumb.
Schatz is right in that the defense has played well. If the offense had its act together, the Bucs might just still be in the playoff race.
Joe has seen videos from some stats people on TikTok that swear if you break the Bucs down using advanced stats, the offensive line hasn’t played that badly, they’re just getting hung out to dry by Baker Mayfield. (Joe will study these more deeply.)
That’s also a premise Ben Solak of BSPN previously has sort of put out there.
October 8th, 2026 at 9:08 am
No. The Bucs STINK. There is not a team they could beat in the NFL right now. Not Houston. Not Miami. Not Tennessee. NO ONE.
0-4 and 2-11 over last 13.
And they will be embarrassed (once again) on national tv tonight.
The stink is all on you Team Glazer.
October 8th, 2026 at 9:12 am
Wouldn’t average be 2-2? A below average team would be 0-4, a bad team 0-5.
October 8th, 2026 at 9:13 am
Bucs are the 2nd best 0-4 team in the league
Which in the NFL means NOTHING
The Bucs are not a serious franchise, serious franchise’s do not bring back a Coach/QB combo that finished the season 2-7
Teams like Dallas, Philly, the Pats, heck even ATL would launch a coach for a 2-7 finish
October 8th, 2026 at 9:16 am
Anyone at this point who wants the Bucs to finish any better than 1-16 is crazy. I Bucs missed out on 4 HoF players in the 89 draft and we got stuck picking Broderick Thomas. 2007 Draft we get stuck with Gaines Adams. Jeremiah Smith is the pick in 2027.
October 8th, 2026 at 9:21 am
These types of articles are the reason why the Glazers are sticking with Bowles, have stuck with Bowles, and likely will stick with Bowles after this season.
Ridiculous statistics formulated to mask the reality of the situation.
0-4 does not equal average. It’s bottom of the barrel in the worst division.
Out of 16 games played by the NFCS the combined record is 5-11.
The Bucs have contributed exactly zero to the win column and four to the loss column.
Please riddle us all again on the greatness of the Todd Bowles regime!!!!
Those free buffets must be amazing and replete with coconut donuts.
October 8th, 2026 at 9:22 am
Still gotta pull out wins
October 8th, 2026 at 9:34 am
I agree with all of that. But the Bucs offense right now will find a way to lose no matter what the defense does. At some point though the dam will burst and we will give up 40 with no help from the offense. Could be tonight.
October 8th, 2026 at 9:34 am
^^^^^^
i swear in the accompanying pic above…
coach looks like he’s thinking about sipping a pina colada on a beach somewhere far far away…
am i wrong…?
October 8th, 2026 at 9:35 am
Bill Parcells, “You are what your record is”. Or something like that.
October 8th, 2026 at 9:38 am
They aren’t wrong…..it doesn’t matter but they aren’t wrong. If not for the horrid offense this team would probably be 3-1 granted a lot at the top has to go wrong to be 0-4.
Anyway, tune in tonight to see what it looks like when a real offense plays this team….
October 8th, 2026 at 9:39 am
The Bucs has lost 4 one score games
Each game could have went either way
Unfortunately, they went against us
This is not the making of a very bad football team
The players has to stay the course
It ain’t over until it’s over
There’s a whole lot of football left to play
October 8th, 2026 at 9:46 am
That points to coaching in my opinion. Need to really get these guys coached up to stop making these mistakes but it never happens. I can’t remember the last time I saw the Bucs execute good in all 3 phases.
October 8th, 2026 at 9:46 am
These types of articles are a damning indictment of Bowles and his staff. In essence the numbers say that with a replacement-level coaching staff, the team should be 2 and 2. With average game planning and game management, and a minimally professional coaching staff, this team has the talent to beat any of the teams they have played so far.
But we all have eyes, we can see the crap on the field. With bottom-of-the-league coaching, the Bucs undermine their otherwise competitive talent with turnovers, protection and coverage breakdowns, pre-snap penalties, poor time management, and loafing.
On their podcast, Tanier and Schatz lauded the Raiders for finally having a professional coaching staff that has enabled the team to play with enough discipline and motivation to at least win the games they are supposed to win.
That should also be the case for the Bucs.
October 8th, 2026 at 9:56 am
Better than a normal 0-4 team implies that the Bucs are a 4 or 5 win team at best, which will cornhole them out of a generational draft pick for who ever replaces Bowles while it goes to Tennessee, the Chargers, Fins, Jets etc. Yeah, sounds like the Bucs in the lost decade or the creamsicle ’80s, win enough to keep you in the basement. BUT Bowles is truly an ignoramus, he can make this team go 0-17 if he is not clipped. So, given the Bowles factor, I doubt the Bucs win two games for Bowles not 4 or 5. Bowles is the worst head coach for the Bucs since Rah lost the team in 2011. Fire him yesterday.
October 8th, 2026 at 9:56 am
(insert the gif of the Spanish guy laughing real hard)
October 8th, 2026 at 10:01 am
Forget Lombardi time. We’re on, who’s walking the plank first? time.
October 8th, 2026 at 10:11 am
The issue is have is theres always an excuse for why Bowles coaches his defenses to be just good enough to never really get blown out, but never aggressive enough to just take over a game.
The offense is playing bad…we’d better hold back.
So-and-so is injured…we cant run our normal stuff without him.
This offense gets the ball out really quickly…let’s not even try to go after him.
Every season and almost every game is this death by 1,000 papercut’s. Go out there and live and die by the sword at some point, I’ve got a hell of alot more respect for that approach and so will the players. I dont know how a single player on this team is enjoying their time recently. It is an absolutely dead looking atmosphere on that field.
October 8th, 2026 at 10:20 am
Bottom of the barrel
October 8th, 2026 at 10:21 am
On the bright side, we’ve moved up to “average”.
October 8th, 2026 at 10:22 am
When you factor in the caliber of the teams they’ve played so far, the Bucs are a terrible team.
October 8th, 2026 at 10:22 am
@Lakeland..It’s good thing that the players “love Bowles ” cause he should be able to snap them out of it beings the losses ” only ” were only by 1 score.. If they get blown out on national TV tonight? Im sure the locker room will start to fade away sorta speak..Good Bowles!
October 8th, 2026 at 10:22 am
WE SUCK AGAIN!!!!!!!
October 8th, 2026 at 10:28 am
An average team with a below average coach. Yeah we already know that. If we had good coaching we could win these one play games. It’s the nfl. You have to bring your A game to Excel. We are bringing our D+ game. It’s a 3-28 Bucs life.
October 8th, 2026 at 10:32 am
@Mark,
Spot on analysis.
We are a mid level team in terms of talent with a bottom level coaching staff. This has been clear to all for a couple of years. Bowles is a complete failure and the front office is a failure for not correcting the obvious. The roster is filled with mid level players paid like all pros. The time to clean house and install a professional front office and coaching staff is long overdue. We have been gas lighted long enough.
October 8th, 2026 at 10:35 am
Hopefully Daniels somehow wins and sends Mayfield a message that hero ball loses games. Tom Brady threw the ball away instead of forcing the ball into tight coverages.
Tom Brady record was elite and Baker Mayfield is suspect at best. Mayfield so far hasn’t changed. His DNA is NO RISK IS TOO GREAT. That’s his downfall.
October 8th, 2026 at 10:39 am
After tonight my Bucs flag hanging off of my house will be hung upside down to signify a team and fan base in distress. This team is too talented to look this bad.
October 8th, 2026 at 10:46 am
Interesting details. Encouraging, we might not be as 0-4 as it seems
October 8th, 2026 at 10:55 am
Shouldn’t have taken Mayfields input on the OC as much as we did and maybe we wouldn’t be in this situation. Love Baker but Robinson is top 3 worst oc of all time. Sad to waste defensive outings where the opponent was held to low enough points to win and we have 0% ability to move the ball.
“Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield strongly advocated for the hiring of Zac Robinson as the team’s new offensive coordinator on January 22, 2026.”
Get rid of Robinson after Dallas and let ANY other coach call the offense. It will most assuredly be better in almost every offensive category.
October 8th, 2026 at 10:55 am
Hire Mike Tomlin!
October 8th, 2026 at 10:56 am
Joe … ‘The Bucs defense has played well, Schatz noted. The offense? Not so much.’
Me thinks you’re listening to the wrong analyst too much Joe. The Bucs’ defense has some excellent statistics going for it right now, but IMO it’s not playing nearly as well as what those stats seem to be saying.
Example: Our pass defense is ranked #9 in Passing Yards Allowed (only 817 yds allowed in 4 games). Project that over 17 games & comes out to 3,472 Passing Yds Allowed. We’ve allowed opposing QBs to complete 63.5% of their passes, allowed 6 Passing TDs (on-track for 26 TDs in 17 games), have 3 INTs (on-track for 13 INTs in 17 games).
In 2022 we also ranked #9 in Pass Defense, and gave up 3,461 Passing Yds so that’s quite consistent. We also allowed opposing QBs to complete only 63.9% of their passes, allowed 29 Passing TDs but got 10 INTs.
So the 2 seasons are VERY similar in terms of Pass Defense. We finished 8-9 in 2022, and here in 2026 we’ve started 0-4. Some say we’ve lost 4 close games, but focusing on the word ‘close’ is deceptive; focusing on the word ‘lost’ isn’t.
The Bucs’ defense has a lot to clean up if we’re gonna win any games this season. And contrary to some, I still think we have the talent to do it. I’ve just become very unimpressed with our coaching … across the board. Todd Bowles is finding out now why BA refused to call plays when he took over the Bucs. It’s too demanding for all but a small handful of head coaches. When things start going bad on BOTH sides of the ball, then the rest find out why ‘you can’t serve two masters’ as the saying goes.
October 8th, 2026 at 11:00 am
I do think this season could be saved by launching Zac Robinson and bringing in an OC from outside the organization. Gruden, perhaps?
October 8th, 2026 at 11:01 am
The only teams to consistently lose on TNF played an overtime game the previous week before. Cowboys won in 4 quarters. 0-5 here we come. Really sucks the season was over before it even started.
October 8th, 2026 at 11:03 am
An average team by definition would be 8-9 or 9-8 by the end of the year. Bucs will be fortunate to win 3. Even at 3 where are those wins coming from?
October 8th, 2026 at 11:07 am
Why are you constantly running over for Toilet Bowles. It’s laughable
October 8th, 2026 at 11:12 am
Sorry but I don’t buy it. It seems that anytime an offense needs to make a play on third and long or second and long, someone (usually a tight end) is wide open for a first down. The Bucs may be decent against the run but Todd Bowles defense has always struggled against the pass especially during clutch time. We don’t pressure the QB. Our defensive backs are 10 yards off the ball and when the ball is snapped they start back peddling. Someone needs to tell Bowles it’s not illegal to play press man coverage and run some stunts or blitz so the ball comes out quick. At least you can make a play on the ball if you’re in man. Instead anytime they need yardage they can just throw a quick out and gain 5 to 8 yards.
October 8th, 2026 at 11:15 am
So far this season, this team doesn’t have the mental strength to win one score games. The defense has played better but can play better still! The offense has been horrible. The O line needs to play better. The run game needs to play better. The OC needs better game plans and play calling scripts. How about using CG14 and BI1 more effectively. Special Teams has played better but still can improve. Will they ?? Bowles and Robinson need to vastly improve!!! Someone needs to step up when the game is on the line and make a play!!! So far this season looks to be the Titanic!!
October 8th, 2026 at 11:16 am
“The Bucs’ defense has a lot to clean up if we’re gonna win any games this season. And contrary to some, I still think we have the talent to do it. I’ve just become very unimpressed with our coaching … across the board. Todd Bowles is finding out now why BA refused to call plays when he took over the Bucs. It’s too demanding for all but a small handful of head coaches. When things start going bad on BOTH sides of the ball, then the rest find out why ‘you can’t serve two masters’ as the saying goes.”
Respect the perspective and partially agree, but man fixing this isn’t going to fix our offense.
Can anybody here really say, when Baker gets back-whenever that it-that we’ll come out looking any better than we have in our first 4 games? Which by time he comes back might be our 6th/7th game?
“Why are you constantly running over for Toilet Bowles. It’s laughable”
What’s laughable is how hive-minded this fan base is acting, talking as if firing coaches and keep the same players is going to fix anything. It’s bringing the sore losers out of you all and it’s funny reading the same things from different people, because it’s all surface level outrage
October 8th, 2026 at 11:17 am
Hire Mike Tomlin?
Why not just keep Todd Bowles?
Tomlin’s record after Big Ben retired:
2022 9–8 Missed playoffs
2023 10–7 Lost Wild Card round
2024 10–7 Lost Wild Card round
2025 10–7 Lost Wild Card round
Then Tomlin resigned (not re-signed).
Does this really look like an improvement over what we already have?
Our defense is ranked in the top 6 in yards and points allowed…
Why fire Bowles if you are going to hire Tomlin?
October 8th, 2026 at 11:19 am
The DVOA gives a lot of insights. For the team to be 4/150 shows that, among dreadful (0-4) teams the Bucs are elite. As are the Texans btw. And that the team is and has been poorly coached. Which we knew but it’s clear to see in black and white numbers.
I’ve been down on the defense and the GM. Seems like the defense isn’t dreadful, only average. And the players are around average as well. No big props to the coach but important info for rebuilding the team.
Plus we have to acknowledge that the D has been shortchanged in the draft for several years. We did try at times to load up the DL and Edge. But GM selected substandard players. And the staff didn’t coach them up, if that was possible.
The front office tried to tide the D over with low tier free agents while concentrating on retooling the O. The strategy might have been good but the execution — we’re all for the execution. The Bucs failed to get DL performance and refused to shore up ILB. Didn’t even try, even with a 30+ yo vet manning the position. Any company with such poor succession planning would be knocked and the Bucs are suffering a knockdown.
A surprising takeaway is that the oLine is okay. But the RB room is not. The WRs are in JAG territory. And since it all starts with the QB — no more need be said.
The good thing about this year is that it wipes illusions away. The coaches are gone. The GM post depends on the owner and the new HC. Player turnover will be widespread and brutal. Contract overhang from TE, Vea and Mayfield will be substantial, but in the end it won’t matter. There are things that have to be done so now they clearly will be done.
October 8th, 2026 at 11:22 am
Does anyone here have a clue why the team failed to put Baker on IR? So he might come back in three games instead of four? Who’s kidding whom?
October 8th, 2026 at 11:24 am
I think with Baker what we’re seeing is simply a lack of mastery of the scheme and he’s overthinking instead of just playing. When you’re on your 4th OC in 4 years, it’s a lot to keep adjusting to. There’s also a feeling out process for the OC and the offense/QB….as well as testing plays vs other defenses. Let’s be honest, beating Bowles in practice each week is a mirage. You might as well assume none of those plays are worth anything. Ideally you would like to be 2-2 at this point considering you have a new OC but you’re hope is to see the concepts start to gel with the offense and have the offense humming by mid season. Now with Baker out, that entire process is delayed and possibly starting from scratch when he returns.
October 8th, 2026 at 11:24 am
Lou – probably because they still think they have a chance at the playoffs. LMFAO
Team Delusional
Another poorly managed decision. And who is in charge?
October 8th, 2026 at 11:25 am
What was the point of the article Joe other than to bash Baker by name and under handily compliment Todd. Puzzling. 0-5 incoming
October 8th, 2026 at 11:27 am
“Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield strongly advocated for the hiring of Zac Robinson as the team’s new offensive coordinator on January 22, 2026.”
++++++++++++++++++++++
Kind of begs the question of what Baker saw in Robinson (while acknowledging that Mayfield was/is much closer to ground zero that any of us)?
Which also begs the question of how the Bucs under Grizzard’s watch were able to excel during the first six games last season, but then slowly collapsed offensively during the remainder of the season?
Which overall begs the question of how much Todd Bowles exerts control over his O.C.’s decision making?
Why did Liam Coen move so quickly to bolt from the Bucs after a successful offensive-play season with an offensive unit that he knew so well at that point?
The answers to all of these questions may directly point to the quality of decision making and coaching of Todd Bowles.
October 8th, 2026 at 11:27 am
Are we going to throw Daniels to the wolves and damage his psyche? Or let the cast off veteran Rypien whom played under Robinson at Rams take a crack at it?
October 8th, 2026 at 11:29 am
Joe, my question is, we know the Bucs offense has been terrible, but what’s the main issues or can any area be pin pointed to why? Is it playing calling, OL, QB play or all the above?
October 8th, 2026 at 11:36 am
Is there a way to see how often we run on 1st and 2nd down? I could swear we ran on 1st EVERY SINGLE TIME. Worst time to pass is 3rd and 6 when there are no other options
October 8th, 2026 at 11:40 am
Nope this defense is trash and so is the coaching when they actually need a stop it never happens I don’t care what the stat nerds are gooning at I actually watch the games and that tells an entirely different story.
October 8th, 2026 at 11:42 am
The reason for this is because of the talent on the team. The 1 thing dragging the rest down is the lousy coaching. They are undisciplined. They play with no fire or passion just like their head coach. They are bland and boring to watch.
October 8th, 2026 at 12:05 pm
That’s the way. Judge Baker by what you see on tik/tok instead of analyzing it for yourself. What would make them or Ben Solak, for that matter, better qualified than yourself. I’ve watched all the replays and the all 22 for myself. Baker made 3 big blunders against the Bengals. In the other two games, he threw one pick against the Browns, that was not the difference in the game. The biggest problem has been from what I can see is that teams are getting intense pressure rushing just 4, that means more congestion on the back end for those intermediate throws. That’s on the offensive line. There have been drops as well. The Bucs are in the top third in drops. Penalties have negated multiple positive passing plays that put the team behind the chains as well. That’s another big problem that don’t help your offensive DVOA.
October 8th, 2026 at 12:11 pm
Interesting perspective. Now consider all 4 losses were by a single score. This implies the reason Bucs are 0-4 instead of say 2-2, is that they choke. The Cleveland lightning delayed choke was one for the ages.
I predict they will turn the corner on choking tonight. This will be the first of a series of blow out losses ala Morris 2011. Take heart fellow Bucs fans. Our beloved Bucs will be chokers no more.
October 8th, 2026 at 12:25 pm
The whole team is not functioning as a unit. It’s clearly obvious no coaching, and no communication. Wack job Boweles needs to go and he’s got to take Robinson and Licht with him.
October 8th, 2026 at 12:29 pm
“In the other two games, he threw one pick against the Browns, that was not the difference in the game.”
I wish I was as forgiving of turnovers as you guys, but I don’t see the rationale in saying a pick doesn’t decided the difference in a game we lost by 4 points. TD is worth 6, 7 if you add in the PAT had you not turned the ball over in that particular instance. It all matters, idk who’s throwing the ball-turnovers are worst case scenario possession enders.
October 8th, 2026 at 12:32 pm
lol the bucs are “less sh 1tty than you think”
how low can you go joe?
October 8th, 2026 at 1:25 pm
Bucs are average, except for being 0-4
Yeah.
I’m great at running Marathons, except for being in a Wheelchair.
October 8th, 2026 at 1:26 pm
No more gaslighting. The Bucs are not average they are bottom of barrel. The cancer Bowles has erased the SB culture and accountability.
October 8th, 2026 at 3:00 pm
Capt. Tim, that’s hilarious 🤣🤣🤣🤣
October 8th, 2026 at 4:11 pm
Every time the Bucs is losing which is good for Bucs future.
Higher draft picks for them. However, the fans will the pain of losing. The Bucs right now is at the bottom of the barrel just like the Dolphins. It will not help even prone-injured Baker come back. Tonight CD Lamb and George Pickens will run wild on the Bucs. The Bucs will be whip tonight.
October 8th, 2026 at 5:49 pm
Average> AVERAGE?..You kiddin me? 0-5 does not equal average.