Bucs Must Improve Second-Down Offense
July 22nd, 2026
Excelled where Bucs struggled.
NFL veteran scribe Tyler Dunne typed things about the Bucs on his Substack page that stuck with Joe.
Until the Bucs defense proves otherwise, for the Bucs to make any sort of playoff run, Bucs coach Todd Bowles must lean on his offense. However, last year when anyone could see the defense stunk, Bowles chose too often instead to lean on his defense.
The results were both predictable and intensely aggravating. It didn’t have to be.
Yes, the Bucs offense had struggles last year. Many could be directly tied to injuries. That’s not an excuse. When the only healthy player on offense is the center, you are bound to have problems.
One problem was moving the ball on second downs.
Joe always liked how former NFL suit Michael Lombardi judged a good offense. That is an offense rarely seeing third downs because the offense is moving the ball on first and second down so well, it is moving the chains before it reaches third down.
Lombardi likened a good offense to pretending it is playing in the CFL, where there are only three downs per series.
So looking at the breakdown of the Bucs offense on each down, cobbled together in the Warren Sharp 2026 Football Preview, two numbers on second downs jumped out.
* The Bucs threw the ball ninth-most in the league on second downs.
* The Bucs were a bottom-six team for passing success rate on second downs.
Avg Dist to 1st Down: 7.6 (12th)
Pass Rate: 64.3% (9th)
Run Rate: 37.7% (26th)
Pass Success: 39.1% (27th)
Run Success: 40.2% (20th)
OK, the man behind the bad second-down offense is gone. Josh Grizzard is now an assistant with Philadelphia. In comes Zac Robinson to replace him from Atlanta.
And there is refreshing intel there.
Per Sharp, while the Dixie Chicks (Robinson) didn’t like to throw on second down (24th), Robinson’s offense was the second-best in the league on second down for success rate.
Yes, it helps to have maybe the best running back in the league in Bijan Robinson. But when healthy, it wasn’t like Bucky Irving was some scrub in 2024.
Generally, a successful play on second down is one that gains at least 60 percent of the yards needed for a first down.
So if Robinson was able to pull that off with a revolving door of subpar quarterbacks throwing to mostly meh receivers, what might Robinson do with a Pro Bowl quarterback and really good receivers?
To Joe, the forecast is promising.
July 22nd, 2026 at 7:59 am
“…what might Robinson do with a Pro Bowl quarterback and really good receivers?” And Bucky Irving, Kenneth Gainwell, Cade Otton et al.
July 22nd, 2026 at 8:54 am
“Bucs Must Improve Second-Down Offense”
and 1st down…
and 3rd down…
and 4th down…
July 22nd, 2026 at 8:59 am
3rd and 7 average distance to 1st down. Did the defenses know what was coming? Grizz had Baker in the shooting gallery every series with practice squad guards.
July 22nd, 2026 at 10:34 am
If Robinson can get this offense jelling we just might have a decent season! Of course Todd’s D and STs need vast improvement too!!!! Bring on September !
July 22nd, 2026 at 11:20 am
have not played a down cue internal optimism
July 22nd, 2026 at 11:27 am
If the Bucs defense can stay off the field due to a Top 5 Offense, the Bucs can be legit Championship contenders in 2028. Keep scoring and force the other teams Offense to be one dimensional and let Todd Bowles defense apply maximum pressure to force turnovers. That’s complimentary football.
July 22nd, 2026 at 11:28 am
5-12
July 22nd, 2026 at 2:47 pm
If If If
July 22nd, 2026 at 3:30 pm
I thought I read somewhere that when passing on 1st down leads to an incompletion, Robinson passed again on 2nd down @ one of the highest rates in the league ?
July 22nd, 2026 at 6:02 pm
How many passes on 2nd down were to running backs?
July 22nd, 2026 at 8:34 pm
With all the talk on Zac Robinson which great why is there no talk about two coaches he brought with him from Atlanta, which is QB Coach and Co-Offensive Coordinator CHANDLER WHITMER former Indians Hoosiers QB Coach and Co- Offensive Coordinator. WHITMER is already familiar with Zac Robinson and his offensive philosophies after serving as the Atlanta Falcon’s Pass game specialist in 2024.Additions pass game coordinator T.J. YATES and Senior Offensive Assistant/Pass Game Specialist KEN ZAMPESE worked closely with Robinson for 2 years in Atlanta.. and why is there No talk about the Buccaneers bring back JORDAN WHITEHEAD 🏈❤️
July 22nd, 2026 at 8:40 pm
Bucs must improve 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down offense, as well as 4th down special teams.
There, fixed it for ya.
July 23rd, 2026 at 1:52 pm
Average distance on first down is 10 yards, rated 17. Is it because of penalties that all teams do not average 10 yards to go on first down? Maybe we should look at penalties, especially pre-snap penalties on first down.