Warren Sharp Ponders Todd Bowles’ Hot Seat
July 2nd, 2026
The time is now.
If Joe didn’t know better, famed handicapper-turned-stathead Warren Sharp is like many of Joe’s commenters and many callers to WDAE-AM 60/WDAE-FM 95.7:
How much longer can the Bucs’ endure Bucs coach Todd Bowles’ defense?
In Sharp’s annual preview, which is chock full of revealing advanced stats, he is simply flabbergasted how Bowles has survived with the Bucs. Sharp has gone over the numbers for the Bucs defense, which Joe has shared the past week, and they are ug-uh-ly.
In fact, Sharp believes the defensive numbers the Bucs have put up the past three seasons are “untenable” for a defensive-minded coach to stay employed.
Since taking over for Bruce Arians, Bowles has produced just one 10-win season, and his defense has slipped from seventh in points allowed in 2023 down to 20th in the same category last year.
Consider that stat: #5 highest blitz rate, 185 total blitzes (#6 most), but only 11 sacks.
The 5.9% sack rate when blitzing ranked #24.
Sharp believes that Bowles’ inability/disinterest in developing sack monsters is liable to Pearl Harbor his career.
And the Bucs’ overall sack rate ranked in the bottom 10, the worst of Bowles’ tenure in Tampa.
Across 600 opposing dropbacks, Bowles’ defense ranked in the bottom 10 in both hit rate and sack rate in 2025.
And, perhaps even more incredibly, when Bowles’ defense did happen to get pressure, which wasn’t nearly often enough, opposing quarterbacks averaged the #5 best EPA per dropback against them. So the pressure wasn’t even delivering great results.
I don’t know where the Bucs go from here. … But I don’t know how you have success as a franchise if you have a defensive head coach who is delivering THIS type of performance on his side of the ball. It’s untenable.
Well, it seems someone at One Buc Palace might be getting the hint. The Bucs this offseason drafted a four-man front edge rusher (Rueben Bain) in the first round, then got an edge rusher in free agency who collected 11 sacks last year (Al-Quadin Muhammad) despite never starting a game.
Throw in a healthy Calijah Kancey, and you would think the Bucs ought to get to the quarterback a few more times.
This is critical because right now, Joe believes the weakest room on the team, aside from Jacob Parrish, is the cornerbacks room. A cornerback’s best friend is a consistently good pass rush.
Will the Bucs finally have a pass rush this fall? Can Bowles prove he can develop an edge rusher? As the great Moe Howard once said, “We shall see.”
July 2nd, 2026 at 4:06 am
I’m a Buccaneers diehard fan first, so I’ll always support Todd Bowles while he’s our HC. But supporting the team doesn’t mean pretending the numbers aren’t what they are.
Warren Sharp isn’t criticizing Bowles based on emotion, he’s using analytics. For a defensive minded head coach, the results simply haven’t been good enough. Tampa has consistently been among the league leaders in blitz rate, yet the defense has struggled to convert those blitzes into sacks, quarterback hits, and negative plays. When you’re bringing extra rushers and still ranking near the bottom in pressure efficiency, something has to change!
The encouraging part is that the front office finally attacked the problem. We drafted T-Rex Bain to strengthen the front four, signed Al-Quadin Muhammad after his 11-sack season, expect a healthy Calijah Kancey for a full year, and continue to develop Yaya. The talent up front is better than it’s been in years.
This is Bowles’ prove it season. If the pass rush improves and he can generate pressure with four instead of constantly dialing up blitzes, the secondary immediately becomes better. If the defense is still bottom 10 in pressure metrics despite these investments, then the criticism will be impossible to ignore.
I’m hoping Bowles adjusts because if this defense even becomes a top 10 unit, this roster is talented enough to make a legitimate playoff run.
Can I get an Amen?! 🙏
🔥 LFG!
💍 Ring Me
July 2nd, 2026 at 5:22 am
Wash, rince, repeat, tell us something we don’t know. Not only is Bowles on the hotseat, he’s in a no win situation to keep his job. If the Bucs do bad, he’s gone, if they do good, he’s gone. Tell you why. We do good, the offense will probably have a lot to do with it. When that happens, teams will be looking to make Zac a head coach. Do the Bucs want to lose another young offensive minded coach to retain Todd? I don’t see the Glazers letting another Coen walk out the door. I don’t see them wanting Baker to learn another offense just so they can keep Todd, and his defense. So win, or lose, I think this is Todd’s last season in Tampa.
July 2nd, 2026 at 6:48 am
We had some GREAT players on defense in the Superbowl year. The quality of the front 7 has steadily been circling the drain ever since. When he says on the plays where we DID get pressure, “opposing quarterbacks averaged the #5 best EPA per dropback”. THAT’S likely because said pressure came at the expense of pass coverage–a blitz.
Is it because Todd can’t develop pass rushers, or because they simply haven’t the ability?. JTS tried 3 teams after us, he’s out of the league. DW45, AFAIK, is out of the league. Gaines is out of the league. Hall is now a backup DE on a 4-3 (which is where he ought have been all along, NOT trying to be a DT) Reddick is out of the league. I suspect in a month or 3 Braswell will be out of the league. We REALLY have been making good personnel choices
July 2nd, 2026 at 7:16 am
Everyone already knows this. We also know why Glazers are reluctant to fire him.
This team is upgraded accross the board sans maybe CB. Todd better win 10+ and a playoff game or force the retirement
July 2nd, 2026 at 7:25 am
Amen BoriMex 813, amen! Excellent analysis on your part, although I’m not enamored with Sharp’s ‘analytical approach’. I love analytics, but I dislike ‘cherry-picking’, and that’s what I see far too often in today’s world. Pick the stats that prove your point as opposed to attempt to provide a more inclusive picture of what went right versus what went wrong. And that leads to some poor conclusions.
And that’s what Sharp has done to Bowles IMO, and for ‘only’ $29.95 (but down from $34.95). For instance …
o ‘Sharp believes the defensive numbers the Bucs have put up the past three seasons are “untenable” for a defensive-minded coach to stay employed’. Three years ago our 2023 Bucs had the #7 ranked defense, allowing only 325 pts that season (19.1 PPG) … our best defense since 2009. THAT’s not ‘untenable’, that’s pretty damn good. Our defense slid a bunch to a #16 ranking in 2024 (385 pts allowed), then further to #20 in 2025 (411 pts allowed). THAT sucks, but analytics should answer the question WHY, and then you can take action to fix THOSE PROBLEMS. I believe we’ve tried to do that by adding FAs Robinson, RNR, Muhammad, Anzalone, Rozeboom and drafting Bain, Trotter, Capehart. Only time will tell however.
o Even our terrible showing last season had some bright spots, but Sharp’s analysis doesn’t discuss any of that. For instance, Bucs ranked #7 in Takeaways (with 23), which defintely helps our offense. We ranked #6 in 4th Down Conversions Allowed (down to 46.7% from 63.3% and a #23 ranking in 2024). That’s progress in the right direction, and progress like that needs to be continued.
Most importantly though, our defense started OK and actually finished OK, but in the middle REALLY sucked. We gave up 106 pts in the Pats, Bills & Rams games (all 3 offensive powerhouses). Plus our S/Ts surrendered 14 points on a blocked punt return & a blocked FG return while our defense sat on the bench. Take away those 120 pts and in the other 14 games we averaged 20.8 PPG Allowed (which would’ve been a #11 ranking in 2025). And THAT was with a crappy pass rush all year.
Only point being: Analytics requires looking at ALL sides of the problem, so that by ‘fixing’ what went wrong, you don’t inadvertently throw out what went right and create a bunch of ‘new’ problems in the process.
July 2nd, 2026 at 7:27 am
Beej … ‘We REALLY have been making good personnel choices’.
Amen to that to brother.
July 2nd, 2026 at 7:38 am
If the Bucs defensive rush doesn’t take a big step this year and the team doesn’t make the playoffs the Todd Bowles era is over. The Bucs addressed many of their needs, so a big improvement is expected from from their coaching staff. This is a make or break season for coaches, players and the Bucs front office 🏬
Make the playoffs and you get to live another season. Football is brutal for everyone associated with the game. IT’S ALL ABOUT WINNING AND TAKE NO PRISONERS.
July 2nd, 2026 at 7:38 am
@Defense Rules
Amen, brother! I appreciate that. I completely agree that analytics should provide context, not just ammunition for one side of the argument.
Bowles absolutely deserves criticism for the last two seasons, but I also think it’s fair to acknowledge what the front office has done this offseason to address the biggest weaknesses. Now it’s about results. If the pass rush improves and this defense still struggles, then the criticism is justified. But if the additions up front do what they’re expected to do, I think we’ll see a much different defense in 2026.
Here’s hoping we’re talking about a top-10 defense again by the end of the season. Go Bucs!
July 2nd, 2026 at 7:53 am
“Defense Rules Says:
July 2nd, 2026 at 7:27 am
Beej … ‘We REALLY have been making good personnel choices’.
Amen to that to brother.”
……………………………………….
That wasn’t intended as sarcasm, lol I just forgot to type the “n’t” after “have”