The Race To 6
June 24th, 2026
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BY IRA KAUFMAN
He’s made a small fortune, with a good chance to make a lot more. For Baker Mayfield, the time is approaching to make history.
There is no shortage of historic angles to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. How about the most dismal start (0-26) of any NFL franchise? Then there’s the worst overall record among the league’s 32 teams.
You get the picture.
There’s also a pair of Super Bowl blowout victories and five players inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, along with Coach Tony Dungy.
Here’s where Mayfield comes in — hand over fist. If his agent and the Bucs can come to terms on a big-time contract extension, Mayfield will be in position to end a quarterback gap unique to the Buccaneers.
Nobody has started under center for this franchise lasting more than five consecutive seasons. Four quarterbacks have come close, but it didn’t happen for various reasons through 50 years of Buccaneer football.
Mayfield could be the one to end this disturbing distinction.
(Quarterback — Years as starter in Tampa)
Doug Williams 1978-82
Vinny Testaverde 1988-92
Trent Dilfer 1995-99
Jameis Winston 2015-19
All were first-round picks whose five-year runs ended ingloriously without a second contract. Another first-round choice, Josh Freeman, labored under center from 2009-12 before losing his starting job to Mike Glennon early in the disastrous 2013 season that spelled the merciful end of the Greg Schiano era.
Let’s add some perspective, shall we?
Former Bucs QB Vinny Testaverde
This five-year ceiling for starting quarterbacks in Tampa is both historic and absurd. Every other team in the league has featured the same guy under center for at least six seasons, if not a lot more, at some point in their franchise annals.
Not so in Tampa, where quarterbacks are a mere passing fancy.
This is the Franchise of 1,000 Faces, where the most important player on the team never receives a long-term deal like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts or, alas, Deshaun Watson.
If Mayfield has a big season and the Bucs are successful, he’s going to spike that five-year ceiling into the ground. If not, the Bucs could be looking for a new leader in a quarterback-rich 2027 draft.
If the Bucs hadn’t suffered a post-bye meltdown in 2025, Mayfield would already have an extension to take him through the rest of the decade. The Glazers would have made sure Mayfield was locked in as the face of the franchise.
Instead, the losses mounted and Mayfield’s mistakes escalated. Given the sorry state of the defense, Mayfield pushed the envelope and his luck too far. He still has the respect of teammates, coaches and fans who admire the way Mayfield competes.
When he scrambles, Mayfield always knows where the sticks are. Dead ahead is that pesky five-year marker.
June 24th, 2026 at 9:10 am
Bucs won’t even get to 6 wins in 2026 so that’s really the race Todd will lose.
June 24th, 2026 at 9:14 am
The Bucs best option is to resign Baker to a long term contract. Pay him, he’s proven himself to be a top tier quarterback. Don’t mess around and have Mayfield leave like Mike Evans did with no sane understanding why.
A 4 year contact now is a far abetter deal than a 1year extension. GET’ER DONE NOW!!!!!!!!
June 24th, 2026 at 9:30 am
Ira, this is why your articles are some of the best reads on JoeBucsFan. You took what looks like a random franchise statistic and turned it into something that actually matters.
Think about it: the Buccaneers have existed for 50 years and not one quarterback has ever started more than five consecutive seasons. That’s almost impossible in today’s NFL. Every stable franchise eventually finds “their guy.” Tampa has had great defenses, Hall of Famers, and two Lombardi Trophies, yet the revolving door at quarterback never stopped.
What makes Bakes situation unique is that he’s not chasing Mahomes, Brady, or some impossible standard. He’s chasing Year 6.
And analytically, he’s earned the opportunity. Over the last two seasons Baker has thrown for over 8,700 yards, accounted for nearly 75 total touchdowns, won back-to-back division titles, and led the Bucs to consecutive playoff appearances. Since arriving in Tampa, he’s produced at a level that ranks among the most productive two-year stretches by any quarterback in franchise history.
The irony is that some people focus only on the interceptions. Fair criticism. But aggressive quarterbacks create explosive plays. Baker’s willingness to push the ball downfield is also a big reason Tampa’s offense became one of the league’s most dangerous units. You don’t get the touchdowns without accepting some risk.
The crazy part? Doug Williams, Vinny Testaverde, Trent Dilfer, and Jameis Winston all stopped at five years. Baker isn’t trying to become the greatest quarterback in Bucs history this season. He’s trying to become the first quarterback in Bucs history to break through the franchise’s strangest glass ceiling.
For a team that started 0-26 and spent decades searching for stability under center, “The Race to 6” might be one of the most important storylines of the 2026 season.
Great piece, Ira. 🐐
LFG!
Ring ME
June 24th, 2026 at 9:33 am
I think it is prudent to wait until after the season to extend Mayfield. Last year’s meltdown was inexcusable. I understand the injuries to the offensive line affected his play, but he wasn’t able to elevate his play even after we were healthy at wide receiver. I expect Mayfield and the Bucs to have a great year, mainly because the defense will be better and nastier. Go Bucs!
June 24th, 2026 at 9:33 am
You look at the evidence of how hard it is to find a successful quarterback, and these idjits here want to chuck Baker and spin the bottle for another one?
June 24th, 2026 at 9:43 am
How hard is it to find a QB? SF had Garappallo who took them to the SB, gave 1st rd picks away for Trey Lance AND drafted Purdy. They did whatever it took to get their guy. The Eagles got rid of their old QB that won them a SB and drafted 2 QBs in a 5 year span until they got their guy who took them to 2 SBs and won one.
Its not hard to find a QB when you have good evaluatiors in your organization. Of course you need luck, but you need a great staff and GM. The Bucs dont have that.
Yall are so scared of failure that you’ll stick with mediocrity. Baker leads this team nowhere significant and its time to start fresh. There are no guarantees that it’ll work out, but thats why you keep trying until you get your guy. Thats why there’s the draft every year. Winning teams dont settle.
June 24th, 2026 at 9:50 am
The Franchise of 1000 Faces
Love the Lon Chaney reference…like Chaney’s characters, Bucs’ QB history has been scary at times.
June 24th, 2026 at 10:10 am
Yes Ira we have blundered qb, the biggest Steve Young. Yes pay the Man please we need some stability at that position.
June 24th, 2026 at 10:24 am
BoriMex 813, did you mean over the last 3 years?
Didn’t win the division title last year.
June 24th, 2026 at 10:26 am
I think Baker is better than any of those listed quarterbacks, including Doug Williams.
June 24th, 2026 at 10:30 am
By most accounts, Baker is about the 10th-12th best QB in the league, currently gets paid as the 16th. I can guarantee Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Cards would snag him up in a heartbeat
June 24th, 2026 at 10:31 am
The endless list of epic blunders in QB acquisition is definitely an argument in favor of keeping Baker, even with all his warts. Not even number 1 in the draft Heisman winners could break the conga line of laughable losers. Dumping Baker for an upcoming draft pick is no panacea. The bust rate is enormous. We could go years again searching and praying – hopeful just to get another Baker. The Baker bashers make some good points, but have no viable alternative to offer short of pig in a poke draft choice. Good luck with that. How many Steve Debergs, Jeff Garcias, Randy Hedbergs and Jack Thompsons do we need to suffer through……and that’s some of the better ones. LOL
June 24th, 2026 at 10:32 am
You’ll never see Mayfield’s full potential until Bowles is fired as HC\DC.
That could have been remedied after the 2024 home playoff Hindenburg style disaster.
Coen wanted to be a HC. Everyone knew it. But the Glazers refused to flush the Toilet Bowles. They just love the culture.
The result? Another 8-9 season including a 2-7 epic meltdown. Bowles got an extension. Fire everyone else.
At this point you might as well strap in for another three years of abject failure and mediocrity. Todd Bowles 101.
June 24th, 2026 at 10:44 am
There is an offer on the table. Believe it or not, given his play for the better part of the past 3-seasons, in a ‘historically’ WEAK (now 4-years running) NFC South Division. A BUNCH of empty 4th-Quarter stats. More ‘childish’ antics that just FOOLS a ‘certain type’ of fan. LOTS of smoke & mirrors. Very ‘sluggish’ Offenses in both 2023 & 2025, that couldn’t move the ball, sustain drives, or score… Again, with extremely WEAK schedules, especially down the final stretches of those seasons. And, it was STIL a major struggle to just BARELY squeak by, and win the Division (which somehow, they failed to do last season).
This is NOT an ‘elite’ Quarterback. It would be a HORRENDOUS mistake to extend him early, before his age 32 season. There is absolutely nothing to lose by ‘playing-out’ this season FIRST. After 8-full seasons in the league now, he is a finished prospect. We already know exactly what we are getting. There is NO upside. He is what HE IS. And, that hasn’t been good enough. Definitely not good enough to offer HIM ‘top of the market’ money LONGTERM. I mean, that’s stupid. There is nothing that makes ANY sense about it. He’s a beaten up and banged up, inconsistent, middle of the road Quarterback, who is now AGING, and AGING FAST. He will NOT age well. There is nothing to gain.
But, here we are now… HE is currently under contract for this season, AND there is an ‘extension’ on the table. The BUCS (out of kindness) OFFERED HIM. It is now ON HIM whether HE decides to take the deal, or not. I mean, you have all of these ‘delusionals’ on here, demanding that the Bucs PAY HIM NOW… When, they already have. So, once more… There. Is. An. EXTENSION. On. The. Table. NOW. Either, HE decides to ‘sign-it’ or HE doesn’t. It’s as simple as that. These were all the same people too, who were just sooooo certain, that HE would take a “Discount.” Lmao. So, fooled once AGAIN. LoL. So, where’s the DISCOUNT!? He didn’t even counter with anything. If I’m the Bucs, I’m not saying another WORD. I’m standing my ground and hoping that he decides to just ‘play-out’ the season. 💯
June 24th, 2026 at 10:44 am
@Lynchmob50
If the Glazers are as loyal to Bowles as everyone says, and I agree they are, then none of us control that decision anyway. But I’d have a hard time believing Bowles survives another playoff disappointment.
If this roster stays healthy, the offense takes another step with Pistol 🔫 Zac and the Bucs still fall short of an NFC Championship appearance, ownership may finally decide they’ve hit the ceiling.
At that point, the obvious succession plan would be Zac. Young offensive mind, continuity for Baker, continuity for the offense, and no need to start over from scratch.
Would you say that’s fair?
June 24th, 2026 at 10:45 am
I don’t even want to think about Bowles with a rookie QB.
June 24th, 2026 at 10:46 am
To be honest I think I know what’s rattling around in the brains of Licht and the Glazers. Last year was an excellent start and an epic collapse. There’s no telling if Bowles will be back next year. If Bowles is gone we won’t really know what the next coach will want to do. They tell me next year’s draft is loaded. Particularly at QB. If Baker cooks, the Bowles regime will continue on and we can maybe draft the future Vita Via. Hence the reluctance to sign Via to a long term contract just yet. If Baker bombs management will want to confer with the new regime. I agree 100%.
June 24th, 2026 at 10:51 am
The team needs to ignore his saying he can play when he’s injured. If he says he can play, test his accuracy like it’s the combine.
June 24th, 2026 at 11:08 am
There will be plenty of other CHEAPER options at Quarterback, for a team that will be heading towards a complete REBUILD by the trade-deadline, AND a brand new HC (and hopefully GM) for this next offseason. Just much much better options, than a 32 year-old, $50+MILLION PER Season LONGTERM over the next 4-YEARS, and destroying our future CAP. There’s an opportunity cost. There is a line in the sand to a point, where it just doesn’t make any sense. NOT with what you are going o get WITH BAKER. The Bucs have to proceed with caution. I mean, they know the odds of this team going anywhere this year, are extremely low. Trust-ME, that behind the scenes they are fully aware of the REALITY. And, every move they’ve made up to this point, says exactly THAT. Just like with Politics… It’s all about ACTIONS. NOT empty slogans. Some people just like WORDS. I’m an actions and proof. The REALITY.
June 24th, 2026 at 11:30 am
2-6 or 3-5 heading TO Chicago right before the trade-deadline, then YOU HAVE TO move every available piece with value, that would not fit with the ‘timeline’ of a rebuild. You have to accumulate as MANY assets, and clear as much cap space, as humanly possible. Collect as MANY 2027-Picks as you possibly CAN. And, if we’re lucky… Maybe, the Rams will be ROLLIN’ and Stafford is OUT. Not wanting to turn to their rookie, maybe they’d come off of a 2028 3rd, and try making a run with Baker, as a RENTAL!? Now, that would be pretty sweet. And, NO… You DON’T have to “REACH” on a 1st-Round QB. You can sign a “bridge” on the CHEAP and take the sure thing’ in Jeremiah Smith, and continue with ‘rebuilding’ your ROSTER FIRST. Who knows, maybe your “bridge” works out (like Darnold) with your new young STUD Head Coach (and GM). Then, you can take full-advantage of having your future young Quarterback’s ‘Rookie’ Deal for 5-YEARS, with a fully LOADED and STACKED roster. When, the time comes. Pick your spots wisely, continue accumulating picks, in order to have enough draft capital to move up, and THEM make your move and POUNCE on your future ‘franchise’ QB. It’s about the right player, at the right timing.
June 24th, 2026 at 11:45 am
With a 32 team NFL, an average team should win the Super Bowl once every 32 years, their conference title once every 16 years, and their division once every 4 years.
The Bucs are a bit ahead winning 2 Super Bowl titles in 50 years, a bit behind winning only 2 conference titles, and a bit behind winning only 10 division titles.
Then, there is the NFL’s worst win-loss percentage heavily skewed by the 0-26 expansion seasons and the appalling parsimony of the Culverhouse years before the salary cap minimum spending mandate.
Overall, it is difficult to see how the Bucs distributing team resources to build balanced teams, often with strong defenses, while refusing to overly concentrate team resources in the QB position has been a particularly bad trend.
There certainly have been some egregious extremes along the way. Losing Doug William to a seemingly racist low ball offer, failing to extend Penn and Bennet who went on to Pro Bowls and Super Bowls, failing to compete for Calais Campbell and Brent Grimes when the Bucs were on the cusp of championship quality with a ton of free cap space while Campbell went to Jacksonville and Grimes went to Miami, were all examples of seemingly incompetent decisions that likely cost the Bucs championship seasons more than QB play did. And, there was the abysmal costs of MRSA destroying promising free agent acquisitions.
I like Baker. I love to watch him play. But, for the money and draft capital, I think that the Bucs can build a younger, stronger team using a second round pick in this year’s supplemental draft to go after Brendan Sorsby and letting him fight it out for Baker’s spot while letting Baker try to thrive in a contract year while preserving a $100M or so of cap space not locked up in Baker to extend Vea and maybe Kancey and Diaby and Mauch with Mauch, Vea, and Diaby as my priorities.
June 24th, 2026 at 11:49 am
BoriMex 813 Says:
“At that point, the obvious succession plan would be Zac. Young offensive mind, continuity for Baker, continuity for the offense, and no need to start over from scratch.
Would you say that’s fair?”
That is yet to be seen. My main concern is the running game. It must be improved dramatically.
If the passing game is to be respected the running game must be feared.
I want to see a healthy amount of play action passing in 2026.
If the offense puts up 27 points a game on average we might have a chance to outscore our own defensive ineptitude.
Under those conditions yes, I would hire Robinson as the new HC.
Bowles simply has to go away. His defense is the Achilles heel of this team.
As long as he is retained we will never get out of this rut.
June 24th, 2026 at 11:50 am
Gf
June 24th, 2026 at 11:56 am
“And, if we’re lucky”…..Junior
The above excerpt is an example of the stupidity of some of the Baker haters on this site.
” There will be plenty of other CHEAPER options at Quarterback, for a team that will be heading towards a complete REBUILD by the trade-deadline”…Junior
This is another one! Take a bunch of words and wrap them around a premise that is borderline or absurd and post it as a reason to not extend Baker.
Maybe some of Junior’s predictions pan out but I could imagine many alternative scenarios that are the opposite. Only value to his comments is we should dump TB/JL.
June 24th, 2026 at 11:58 am
toopanca. Mayfield pulled a few dumb moves while in college. Sorsby took the cake.
Anyone choosing Sorsby deserves having that blow up in their faces. Plus, the supplemental draft this year has been scrubbed by the league,’ just as it should be.
June 24th, 2026 at 12:08 pm
@ toopanca – Sorsby is DONE. At least for right now. The NFL cancelled their supplemental draft for 2026. They took HIM and all the potential negative backlash completely off the table.
June 24th, 2026 at 12:14 pm
BoriMex 813 Says:
“At that point, the obvious succession plan would be Zac. Young offensive mind, continuity for Baker, continuity for the offense, and no need to start over from scratch.
Would you say that’s fair?”
Answer: Until Todd is gone there’s no need to waste energy on these what if scenarios.
The Swiss cheese defense is the main reason for our inability to make a meaningful run at another title.
Bowles = Failure
June 24th, 2026 at 12:15 pm
Ira … ‘This is the Franchise of 1,000 Faces, where the most important player on the team never receives a long-term deal like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts or, alas, Deshaun Watson.’
Great read Sage. Of those 9 QBs you noted, the Bucs COULD have drafted 4 of them without moving up in the draft (Josh Allen, Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson & Jalen Hurts). But we chose not to. Actually the only 1 of the 4 I would’ve loved to have is Josh Allen (and yup, we traded that opportunity away).
I noticed that you by-passed the WHY question. WHY hasn’t any Bucs’ QB lasted longer than 5 years? Is it because we drafted poorly OR because we’re terrible at developing QBs? Or maybe some other reason.
June 24th, 2026 at 12:19 pm
@ BucsfaninOregon – I’m no “Baker Hater” here, AT ALL. But, you can go ahead and call me as being such, at anything over 3-years, and $45-MIL PER. There’s a BIG difference between being a “HATER,” than being a REALIST. Actually, up to $45-MIL (3-years) is a HUGE SPREAD for lead way. And, I wouldn’t even do THAT, myself. Just like Colin Cowherd literally just said 2-minutes ago… He “LIKES Baker from $38-$41-MIL, but not nothing higher!” Most of your people are EMPTY, and are just like, “PAY HIM RIGH NOW, or ELSE… WHATEVER IT TAKES.” Now, that’s STUPID. I mean, REAL DUMB. And let me remind you… There. Is. An. Offer. ON. THE. TABLE. NOW.