BSPN: Bucs Still Atop The Smelly NFC South
June 5th, 2026
“What do you think about those odds, Bucky?”
Been a busy week in the NFL for June.
How busy? Glad you asked. The rumored A.J. Brown trade to New England that has been written about by Dianna Russini since she was in a training bra happened, and it got pushed aside.
When two of the best defensive ends in the game get traded for each other, that’s huge news, especially when one, a Hall of Fame player, heads to the City of Angels.
So this moved BSPN to recalibrate its stat-geeky computer rankings of each NFL team. The AI (?) software the four-letter uses still has the Bucs winning the NFC South landfill. However, the Bucs will do this perhaps as a middling eight-win team, if you do the math.
BSPN has the Bucs as the No. 18 team, still ahead of the Dixie Chicks, the slimy Saints and the NFC South defending champion Stinking Panthers.
Since the NFL has 32 teams, No. 18 is a below-average team, so the soothsaying software predicts.
This same software has the Bucs with a 41 percent chance of winning the division, a 47.3 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 23.3 percent shot of winning a playoff game.
Also, it has the Bucs with a 9.5 percent shot of getting to the NFC championship game, a 3.9 percent chance of making the Super Bowl and a 1.6 percent snowball chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy aloft in SoFi Stadium in February.
You like that?
June 5th, 2026 at 7:16 am
Division is a crap shoot with tons of parity-bet the longest shot in the division to win it , because they very well may.
June 5th, 2026 at 7:21 am
If our Putrid Pass defense improves there’s no reason why this team shouldn’t win the NFC south and be a serious playoff contender. The Offense will be a juggernaut with a Real OC and a motivated Born Again Baker at the controls. Go Bucs!
June 5th, 2026 at 7:26 am
And that is why they are “BSPN”
I very much like the changes to the roster, especially the D front 7. Drafting Bain and signing Robinson will do a lot for the D-line.
Joe, you recently said the changes to the ILB are only slightly improved. I disagree. Trotter has to be light years better than Dennis. And the way LVD player last year, he wasn’t much better than Dennis.
I think the Bucs will do well this season.
June 5th, 2026 at 7:33 am
We better win most games at the front end of the schedule
June 5th, 2026 at 7:59 am
3&28
Mike left for obvious reasons
6 wind max unfortunately
Mike tomlin 2027
June 5th, 2026 at 8:01 am
Yes, the front 7 seems improved. It’s the backend that will be a serious problem. I’m afraid Burrow will light the Bucs D up. He has great receivers, not just good. I saw a video of him getting a torch ready for the Bucs game.
June 5th, 2026 at 8:52 am
Best of the excrement pile. Sounds like a Bowles specialty to me.
Do the very least possible to just barely win the lousy division.
Then fall flat on your face in the playoffs. Zero hope of winning anything.
And that is supposed enough for the fanbase to drain their bank accounts for the Glazer kids.
Wash, Rinse, Repeat. Sign Bowles to another extension.
June 5th, 2026 at 9:17 am
I agree that the front 7 appears improved. However, inside LB, still could be an issue, with a 31 yer old LB and a rookie. Even worse though is the secondary. All we can do is hope Parrish starts outside, Morrison stays injury free and learns to play the position, while McColumn isn’t let off the bench. That is the upside!!. The other side, no depth, while Morrison and McColumn continue what they achieved last year, dismal and at times embarassing play. This year, I can see the Bucs having a losing record at the start of the season, while players learn their position on defense. The offense hopefully plays lights out. However, they must get used to yet another offensive cordinator and the line stays free of injuries. In the end this may be a 500 team at best , getting more wins at the end of the season. As far as winning the division I think that is totally up in the air. ME left for a reason and maybe he knew more of what was to come.
June 5th, 2026 at 9:17 am
Ignoring the red headed step child.
June 5th, 2026 at 9:26 am
Ughh. Kirk Cousins quote. That dude wears me out. Go Bucs.
June 5th, 2026 at 10:06 am
Revenge of the Nerds. Glazers letting fans down.
June 5th, 2026 at 11:09 am
Under Twocoach, the Bucs can and will defy all AI projections which simply model the past and project forward with extrapolation. This ignores the clear and precipitous plunge in performance during Twocoach’s Rein of Regression.
Bucs will be a layer of mung at the bottom of the NFC South Landfill. This is the year Twocoach takes his level of suck to a whole ‘nother depth.
June 5th, 2026 at 11:18 am
I’d be shocked in the Bucs won the NFCS.
Carolina won last year. Saints are surging. Atlanta no longer has Raheem … WHILE the Bucs still have Bowles.
Bowles has never “won” the NFCS. He’s just been the best loser.
He won’t get that luxury this year. Bucs finish 3-4 in the division at 5-12
June 5th, 2026 at 11:48 am
Idk, I don’t think Bryce Young is good. He ” might” turn it around. Tyler Shough ” might” take that year 2 jump. What concerns me is Tua. ” If” he wins that job and “if” he can stay healthy…Was he overpaid in Miami? Yes. But actually he is not a bad QB. He is 44-32 in his career being the AFC East the entire time with Josh Allen and the Patriots who went to the playoffs 2-3 times and the SB last year since Brady left. Talent competition wise he is taking a step down. But you look at 2023, he had like 4500 yards and 30td passes and led the leagues #1 offense. His per game splits in Miami weren’t bad. It’s been multiple seasons he would have eclipsed 4000 yards if he had stayed healthy..But 44-32 is what it is. Not great but for example Tampa Baker is 27-24 and 16-17 outside the division in the regular season. Bringing in a 43 year old,2x COY was a underrated move. 98% of the talk is about the defense but the offense was worse last year and finished 23rd in 2023 with Canales as the OC and the whole offense healthy. I think you guys are setting yourself up for a letdown..Just reading you guys predictions and some games you have marked off as wins in scratching my head. I don’t think you guys understand how damning of a stat that being below.500 outside of this division is. That’s over a 3 year span. This team didn’t get better. I don’t know how much of a impact you guys expect these rookies to make in 2026 but it’s unrealistic. This team is in a quagmire. Either go all out or tear it down. They are stuck in that old school mindset ….blow it up when we hit rock bottom. If you want a new HC 2026 might be the castor oil you have to drink. Same thing with the QB.
June 5th, 2026 at 12:01 pm
Division Trophy in the NFCS these days are equivalent to a participation trophy compared to the rest of the NFL divisions!
June 5th, 2026 at 12:07 pm
Just for reference so you know how accurate this model is:
2025 rankings:
1. Eagles
2. Chiefs
3. Ravens
4. Lions
18 Cowboys
19 Dolphins
20 Cardinals
21 Seahawks
22 Jaguars
23 Colts
25 Patriots
Totally worthless. Four of last season’s best teams were all ranked in the twenties… who made the playoffs in the top four?
Super bowl had #21 versus #25.
Need I type more?
June 5th, 2026 at 12:20 pm
Perfectly stated, KA. These models are sterile mathematical extrapolations of history, with no consideration given to the difference a good coach makes, or a bad coach makes. Fortunately for us fans, we hasn the latter.
June 5th, 2026 at 12:31 pm
KA: off season predictions are worthless. Just like all the Baker and Bucs ore season hype this year. One thing I’ll caution about last year tho: Drake Maye took a gigantic step forward in year 2 (imagine that) AND Sam Darnold – who turns 29 today- went to the Seahawks as the only major move and their win total went up 4 games and they won the SB year one. They had Geno Smith who ” on paper” was a top 6-8 QB from 2022-2024 and they upgraded. How about that. A year after Minnesota improved 8 games with Darnold in year 1. Maybe it’s just a coincidence.