Lot On The Line For Baker Mayfield
September 4th, 2026
“Sorry Ira, I can’t use you as my agent!“
Depending on how Baker Mayfield plays (and how the season unfolds for the Bucs), Mayfield could pocket quite a bit of Team Glazer loot or maybe find a team desperate to pay him top dollar in 2027.
That’s the way folically-challenged Billy Barnwell of BSPN sees it. In a column about players who have much to gain/lose this season, Mayfield is among the players atop Billy’s list.
The “Baker Mayfield Rule” holds that the veteran quarterback’s performance is inversely correlated with how much confidence the public has in his ability. More doubt, more success. As soon as Mayfield started earning consideration as an MVP candidate around the midway point of the 2025 season, his performance cratered, taking Tampa Bay’s season along for the ride. …
Mayfield hasn’t missed a start in three years, he won a playoff game over the Eagles in 2023, and he ranks 14th in QBR over his run with the Bucs, between quarterbacks such as Jared Goff (12th) and Trevor Lawrence (16th). Goff makes $53 million per year, while Lawrence is at $55 million. You can understand why Mayfield wants to be in a ballpark with his fellow former first overall picks, and given cap inflation since those deals were signed, pushing for $60 million doesn’t seem like an unreasonable suggestion.
The Bucs don’t seem interested in reaching that price tier on a multiyear deal. The franchise tag at quarterback projects to come in at $50 million in 2027, which means they could franchise their starter next year and even go to $60 million in 2028 without making a long-term commitment.
Billy also threw out the possibility that the Steelers, desperate for a quarterback with drama queen Aaron Rodgers expected to call it quits after this season, may not be in a position to angle their way into a draft spot to land one of the many top-shelf quarterbacks expected in next spring’s draft.
The Joe typing here is personally worn out hearing and reading how Mayfield is going to destroy the league this year because he is peeved the Bucs wouldn’t give a long-term deal. To Joe, this is nonsense. Why? Has it looked like Mayfield has been loafing in any way?
The guy fights his arse off to win games and put the Bucs in position to win games. He lays it on the line each week.
Joe did think it was interesting that Billy believes the Bucs may not want to give Mayfield a long-term deal because his borderline reckless style of play for a quarterback on the wrong side of 30 is more conducive to year-to-year contracts.
But, as Joe has stated over and over, everything Joe hears both on and off the record leads Joe to believe Mayfield will be the Bucs’ quarterback for 2027 and perhaps beyond.
September 4th, 2026 at 7:11 am
Baker doesn’t need extra motivation. The man treats a 2nd-and-7 in October like somebody insulted his mother.
September 4th, 2026 at 7:24 am
The only thing that can derail his career (this year, anyway) is a blown achilles, that’s likely a career-ender for a guy like him. I don’t see why the Bucs didn’t offer a 3 year extension with no guarantees for the 3rd, it’s sort of a face-saving thing
September 4th, 2026 at 7:37 am
@ Beeej
It’s been reported that the Bucs offered a 2 year extension worth @ $100M and he turned his nose up at that offer…
I believe Baker is once again rolling the dice and betting on himself.
If I wuz BM’s agent I would have told him to take the guaranteed cash because his style of play seems to lead to a slew of injury issues which affects his quality of play.
Good luck Baker.
September 4th, 2026 at 7:39 am
I pray that Baker throws the ball away until he gets the new contract.
No biscuit if you risk it
Baker Arian’s
September 4th, 2026 at 7:42 am
Todd that is hillarious!
September 4th, 2026 at 7:51 am
It’s doubtful that any team would do more than 2 years deal or 3 with less guaranteed money. I think the facts show he’s earned the money but also can be less effective over his career when he is banged up. Bucs have no other options and if anyone thinks Jalon Daniels is his replacement you drank too much coolaid.
September 4th, 2026 at 8:02 am
My take on the mood Mayfield may be in this fall has to do with eliminating the second quarter swoons that have been all too common with this team the last few years. You know, when we have a 10 point lead to start Q2 and Baker gets bored because it was easy to start. That’s what I’m hoping goes away.
September 4th, 2026 at 8:09 am
@Marine,
You notice that the one thing never mentioned about the two year offer is the guaranteed money? My bet is that is a big sticking point since Franchise Tags are fully guaranteed
September 4th, 2026 at 8:25 am
He already has money! Play out the contract, with a couple playoff wins? Then hes even richer…With the changes to the team a new start..No brainer.
Stupid real stupid post BJ ….UGH!
September 4th, 2026 at 8:30 am
@ Drunk
That’s a good point… I figured a majority would be guaranteed but that is unknown at this juncture.
September 4th, 2026 at 8:38 am
Looking for a shootout in Cincy…. could be fun to watch.
September 4th, 2026 at 8:55 am
I don’t know , it seems they could have given him 3 years. I mean comon who are they going to replace him with. It is like they are saying ok prove us wrong and we will give you a boat load of more money. That logic is interesting. I tell you what if he has even a decent year, some team out there is going to park a big boat at Mayfield’s house with a lot of cash. Yeah when it come s to qb the Bucs have made some pretty dumb decisions. Think D. Williams, S Young, J Winston. I say sign the Man and be done with it
September 4th, 2026 at 8:58 am
Ball out, Baker. Settle up bill when it’s time.
September 4th, 2026 at 9:08 am
J. Winston was not a mistake.
September 4th, 2026 at 9:08 am
The scenario to unfold:
Baker unfortunately gets injured.
Jalon Daniels comes in and takes us to the playoffs
Our D will be back to relevance
Baker Walks at end of year. Some foolish NFL will pay him 50 mill plus…Cleveland??
September 4th, 2026 at 9:10 am
I can truly appreciate BM’s confidence and moxy. However, he doesn’t have the leverage he thinks he has. In business, the person holding the purse strings has all the leverage. Baker is selling a service the Bucs want, but don’t need. There are other guys that offer the same service, even if they are not better than BM, but they are reliable. Sometimes the Mercedes is a really expensive nice to have, but you only need a Toyota that reliably gets you from point A to point B.
September 4th, 2026 at 9:15 am
@Marine
My initial reaction was, Baker…wtf are you thinking?
Then someone (don’t recall who) reported the guaranteed portion of the extension was the lowest of all starting QB’s. No clue how accurate that is, but that could provide a somewhat plausible explanation for him balking at the deal and feeling disrespected.
I still think he’s nuts for turning it down, but I hope he balls out and the Bucs have a deep playoff run.
September 4th, 2026 at 9:19 am
Mayfield is not Josh Allen, but both QB’s will break your heart with their heroics and then turnovers resulting in disappointment.
So, if Bucs eventually sign Mayfield to an extension, expect entertaining QB play combined with heartbreaking disappointment (coupled with the injury/OLine/Coaching excuses).
Rooting for Mayfield to overcome his past patterns is best Bucs fans can hope for.
September 4th, 2026 at 9:57 am
One thing no one seems to understand. A LOT of Baker’s poor performance last season, especially his ‘recklessness’ with the football, is directly related to the PISS POOR defense. Baker KNEW that his defense was gonna suck, and not stop anyone.
So, being the competitor that he is, he pushes things, and forces throws he would not make in an effort to make up for the poor defense. He KNEW he had to put up 40 to have a chance to win… and that leads to mistakes.
IF the defense is even 25% better this season, we’ll see a much better Baker.
BTW: the same thing happened in Cleveland, and in Carolina.
September 4th, 2026 at 10:16 am
Baker’s done lined heem up a new Sonic Drive-In deal… So, more commercials coming. Just like while in Cleveland, he’s better known as a ‘pitchman’ at this point, than a true legit ‘elite’ NFL Quarterback.
September 4th, 2026 at 10:36 am
@ Beeej Says: “I don’t see why the Bucs didn’t offer a 3 year extension with no guarantees for the 3rd.”
BECAUSE, Quarterbacks on the wrong side of 30, who were not DRAFTED BY their current TEAM, do NOT receive a true fresh 4-YEARS (and at top-of-the-market money)… I mean, I don’t know HOW MANY times, it has to be said. Other than Russell Wilson, there has been NO ONE ELSE (at least no one recently, in the current modern game)… And, HE went to TWO “Super Bowls” – winning one, and should’ve been TWO. But, EVEN THAT was a REAL DUMB move at the time (helps having WALMART $$$$), that most people (including myself) all agreed. Dak got 4-YEARS… After signing TWO ‘franchise’ tags, a loooong YEARS LONG, drawn-out, never ending saga, AND “HE” WAS DRAFTED BY HIS TEAM… Annnnd, had backed Jerry into a corner. The only other one, was TOM BRADY… Again, DRAFTED BY HIS TEAM. Thennnn, you throw-in BAKER being undersized, a huge distraction, NOT the type of “leader” that teams are going to be willing to invest in LONGTERM, constantly banged-up, very inconsistent and erratic play at large chunks of the most EVERY season he’s played, and on and on… And, you REALLY CAN go on. PLUSSSS… Did You Actually WATCH LAST SEASON!? Come on, dude. Substance. Context. History. And, FACTS MATTER. But, “YOU” still just can’t seem to figure-it OUT!? How bout actually USE your brain for just ONCE, and BE HONEST with YOURSELF.
September 4th, 2026 at 10:51 am
If they give Baker all those years, then we’ll STILL be paying for HIM looong AFTER he’s gone. They give him 3-4 more YEARS, by the time they’re finished ‘kicking the can down the road’ and pushing-it out even further into future years, & etc…. We’ll be ‘paying for it’ for prob the next 6-7-YEARS, when it’s all said and done. I just wanna be DONE WITH IT, and MOVE ON. Fresh. Clean. SLATE. 💯
September 4th, 2026 at 10:53 am
Instead of wanting to field the best team around him, Baker is worried about getting his own bag.
That tells me all I need to know about his character.
We got to witness how a real franchise QB operates with TB12.
He took less money to have the best players around him. Others also deferred money to go along with Brady in that venture for a title.
Mayfield is not a winner in the NFL. All hype without the results.
September 4th, 2026 at 11:01 am
Cosmo, so it’s all Bakers fault for the losses? Coaches, other players, other teams players, injured starters not playing, mismanaged franchises… none of that has anything to do with Bakers win loss record?
September 4th, 2026 at 11:02 am
Even Brady wasn’t good with Todd running the ship… just saying
September 4th, 2026 at 11:03 am
You all constantly want to talk about just HOW GREAT and LOADED this roster is, & bla, blah, freakin BLAH. Well, then Baker has NOT BEEN GOOD ENOUGH (and HE hasn’t)… But, YOU then still want to pay HIM $60-MILLION+ (hell, a gazillion, it doesn’t matter… might as well), for another 3-4 YEARS. It’s Just ABSURDITY. Absolute, INSANITY. It doesn’t MAKE ANY SENSE.
September 4th, 2026 at 11:12 am
@ OLDSCHOOL1976 Says: “Even Brady wasn’t good with Todd running the ship… just saying.”
Well, you can just be “saying” all you want to… Brady was 50 FREAKING YEARS OLD. That’s THE ‘dumbest’ (most disingenuous) comment you could EVER MAKE. Like, “TODD BOWLES” would’ve had ANY effect on TOM BRADY whatsoever!? That’s LAUGHABLE. Tom TOLD Bowles WTF he was going to do… AND, he had a helluva LOT goin’ on. He was DONE. Bowles had about as much to do with “TOM’s PLAY’ that season, as what a fly on his shoulder would have. PLEASE. I mean, GET REAL. Go stead of JUST ADMITTING ‘Reality’ – You people just have to continue INVENTING THINGS, and making sh!t up. No wonder you’re soooo obsessed with BAKER… You all are just alike, with the exact same insecure, weak egos. Or, SOMETHING.
September 4th, 2026 at 11:17 am
I never said Baker is the lone reason for sucking out loud in a putrid division.
Again, the number one reason is the wide open, soft as melted butter, pee wee league caliber, Swiss cheese defensive scheme of Todd Bowles.
The HC\DC is the Achilles heel of this franchise bar none.
My point about Mayfield is he’s a 50/50 guy. No consistency whatsoever.
Yes, he’s great at times, but equally as terrible at times. And not a franchise QB.
September 4th, 2026 at 11:18 am
I’m pretty sure if it was 3 years 50 -53 per year w 2 Gaurenteed then he would have signed ,, that’s a big difference from 2 years , 100 total, 50gaurenteed ,, I give him credit for rolling the dice and hope he has a great year and if he makes an extra 10 million because of that good for him, if he loses 10-20 million because of that , well I think he will live with that
September 4th, 2026 at 11:19 am
@OLDSCHOOL1976 Says: “none of that has anything to do with Bakers win loss record?”
He’s now going into HIS 9TH-SEASON. He was KICKED to the curb in both Cleveland AND Carolina… I guess, because HE was o great at those places, as well. He’s a #1-OVERALL PICK and a former “Heisman Trophy” WINNER… He has been a total BUST so far, given THOSE credentials. He was NOT some 4th-Round PICK. He has miserably, UNDERPERFORMED. 💯
September 4th, 2026 at 11:34 am
(in my most ‘sarcastic’ tone EVER LoL) “Even Brady wasn’t good with Todd running the ship… (and, here’s the best part) Just Saying.” Lmaooooo. GTFOH. Straight-up MORONS.
September 4th, 2026 at 12:14 pm
1 playoff win 3 years ago doesnt justify 100mil guaranteed….baker is foolish for even thinking that lol….
baker and his agent over valued themselves…he shouldve signed…
time will tell if he lands on 7 or craps out!!!
GO BUCS!!!!
September 4th, 2026 at 12:48 pm
An occasional conspiracy theory can be interesting. For example, we all know how competitive Baker is. He’ll do anything short of suicide to win. Never abandon his troops, no matter how beat up he is. So, if you want to get him beat up staying in games and looking bad so that you can replace him, you pick a backup whom everyone, including Baker, knows to have no chance of winning. Perhaps the dubious backup choices for last season and this season are not examples of poor judgment, but rather the opposite.
September 4th, 2026 at 2:15 pm
“As soon as Mayfield started earning consideration as an MVP candidate around the midway point of the 2025 season, his performance cratered, taking Tampa Bay’s season along for the ride. …”
This is what I pointed out last week when everyone was calling him the (week 6) MVP, and then Baker started telling everyone how great he is, that in previous years when he got full of himself, that’s when his play fell off a cliff, and then it happened again.
With that said, the idea that he’s needing to earn that massive new deal, and it won’t just be handed to him. Fantastic! Imagine that idea, you’re under contract, making $40M cash, got $30M cash coming up next year regardless, and they’re not just going to automatically give you another $240M on top of it, and actually want him to earn the new deal by doing wacky things, like completing a 7 yard pass to a wide open WR with the playoffs on the line.
Anywho, hopefully he earns that huge new deal after the season, because if he does – then it means the Bucs not only made the playoffs, but won in the playoffs.
September 4th, 2026 at 2:20 pm
813bucboi Says:
September 4th, 2026 at 12:14 pm
1 playoff win 3 years ago doesnt justify 100mil guaranteed….baker is foolish for even thinking that lol….
——–
Well other QBs got even more money doing less, so I wouldn’t use that as my argument.
But his play has been very up and down, which is his entire history in the NFL. In 2023 Baker was very middling, in 2024 he had a great season (although still just 1-5 in playoff and prime-time games), and in 2025, outside of 2 games (Sea/SF) he was mostly bad to awful.
And if health is the issue that is always being claimed to explain his bad or inconsistent play, then the issue is he can’t stay healthy – and it’s unlikely he’s going to suddenly get more healthy as he approaches his mid-30s.
BUT, with all that said, he’s still got another chance – this year – to earn that huge new deal. If he plays well, and the Bucs win in the playoffs, then Tampa will be a lot more comfortable giving him a big huge new deal.
However, if it’s another year of just hearing about how every bad game is about him being injured, and nothing is his fault, then he’ll be hitting the bricks, along with Bowles as they’re a package deal.
September 4th, 2026 at 2:23 pm
813bucboi Says:
September 4th, 2026 at 12:14 pm
1 playoff win 3 years ago doesnt justify 100mil guaranteed….baker is foolish for even thinking that lol….
baker and his agent over valued themselves…he shouldve signed…
time will tell if he lands on 7 or craps out!!!
GO BUCS!!!!
——————————–
How many playoff wins did Trevor have when he got his bag bro ? Dak ? Tua ? Love ? In the NFL people get paid on projections (what you will do not what you have done) and market value (what do others in your position earn) as much as performance. For someone who comments on Baker and football as much as you do I’d have thought you’d understand that.
September 4th, 2026 at 2:50 pm
The Glazer’s are tight with their money
Baker would have to have a very spectacular year to get the deal he want
September 4th, 2026 at 3:05 pm
Munch,
You have been anti Baker since the day Bucs signed him. You point to losses that were the result of a nonexistent defense. Meanwhile, Baker in his Bucs career throws the second most TD’s in the last 3 years—-95 Td passes. Third most total passing yardage not to mention miraculous scrambles to make 1st downs. I speak for many when Baker has a hot start to 2026 season, that you just go away and stay away. Most Tampa fans other than you and your male girlfriends, think Baker is exciting and fun to watch.
September 4th, 2026 at 3:11 pm
To all the analysts on this website: In Mayfield’s Tampa career. he has thrown for more yardage and more TD’s than Josh Allen, the prototype for an NFL QB.
September 4th, 2026 at 3:33 pm
it is shocking baker isnt making 50+ right now, he should be. i hope he has a great year that gets him 55+ after, from the bucs or not.
September 4th, 2026 at 4:12 pm
Simple T makes it sound simple! Its just the ” personel” on this blog that dont !
September 4th, 2026 at 4:34 pm
Joe Burrow has never defeated Maker Mayfield in head to head NFL competition. Mayfield has completely outplayed Burrow head to head. Mayfield is a top 5 NFL QB who needs to be paid that way. We know Munch still longs for Kyle Trask. Hope you get him in 2027. Meanwhile hoping Steelers get Mayfield for 3 year deal at $55mil per year guaranteed.
September 4th, 2026 at 4:54 pm
Gipper and Munch should go to a game together…
September 4th, 2026 at 7:24 pm
If you are an NFL Quarterback,
And your starting WRs are Rookies Tez Johnson and Kameron Johnson,
You leave that team as soon as you can.
Yup.
I’ve said it since February. In an interview posted today on Utube, Mayfield is saying it also.after the slop he had to deal with at WR, He still got the team in a position to win.
Just to watch an absolutely horrible defense race to give the game away.
Then that defense lost Lavonte David and Jameel Dean.
And replaced them with . . Rookies and an old blonde LBer.
Mayfield will leave, unless they just absolutely drown him in money.
Why would he stay?
September 4th, 2026 at 9:17 pm
All the talk will stop once the season starts. Bucs, QB and head coach must win a playoff game if they want to return next year. Winning the NFC south is good but if you cannot win a playoff game it all for nothing. Go BUCs
September 5th, 2026 at 1:58 am
You tell em Gipper 100% correct
September 5th, 2026 at 12:11 pm
The Glazers dont over pay but Baker is really asking for chump change for a,QB playoff win ratio as,munchable pointed out. Dak has 231 m guaranteed and a playoff win in 19 and,23. Did not make the playoffs,last year and it was probably due to too much of the cap going to one guy. Kyler Murray has no playoff wins,and 160 m guaranteed. The cardinals pair the vikings to take the tiny Smurf off their hands. The Glazers will never be as,stupid as,Jerry and the Cards but still let’s put Bakers,demands in perspective. Now to follow the baker rule he sucks,and needs to retire now and live off his wife’s modeling income like you know who.