Lot On The Line For Baker Mayfield
September 4th, 2026
“Sorry Ira, I can’t use you as my agent!“
Depending on how Baker Mayfield plays (and how the season unfolds for the Bucs), Mayfield could pocket quite a bit of Team Glazer loot or maybe find a team desperate to pay him top dollar in 2027.
That’s the way folically-challenged Billy Barnwell of BSPN sees it. In a column about players who have much to gain/lose this season, Mayfield is among the players atop Billy’s list.
The “Baker Mayfield Rule” holds that the veteran quarterback’s performance is inversely correlated with how much confidence the public has in his ability. More doubt, more success. As soon as Mayfield started earning consideration as an MVP candidate around the midway point of the 2025 season, his performance cratered, taking Tampa Bay’s season along for the ride. …
Mayfield hasn’t missed a start in three years, he won a playoff game over the Eagles in 2023, and he ranks 14th in QBR over his run with the Bucs, between quarterbacks such as Jared Goff (12th) and Trevor Lawrence (16th). Goff makes $53 million per year, while Lawrence is at $55 million. You can understand why Mayfield wants to be in a ballpark with his fellow former first overall picks, and given cap inflation since those deals were signed, pushing for $60 million doesn’t seem like an unreasonable suggestion.
The Bucs don’t seem interested in reaching that price tier on a multiyear deal. The franchise tag at quarterback projects to come in at $50 million in 2027, which means they could franchise their starter next year and even go to $60 million in 2028 without making a long-term commitment.
Billy also threw out the possibility that the Steelers, desperate for a quarterback with drama queen Aaron Rodgers expected to call it quits after this season, may not be in a position to angle their way into a draft spot to land one of the many top-shelf quarterbacks expected in next spring’s draft.
The Joe typing here is personally worn out hearing and reading how Mayfield is going to destroy the league this year because he is peeved the Bucs wouldn’t give a long-term deal. To Joe, this is nonsense. Why? Has it looked like Mayfield has been loafing in any way?
The guy fights his arse off to win games and put the Bucs in position to win games. He lays it on the line each week.
Joe did think it was interesting that Billy believes the Bucs may not want to give Mayfield a long-term deal because his borderline reckless style of play for a quarterback on the wrong side of 30 is more conducive to year-to-year contracts.
But, as Joe has stated over and over, everything Joe hears both on and off the record leads Joe to believe Mayfield will be the Bucs’ quarterback for 2027 and perhaps beyond.
September 4th, 2026 at 7:11 am
Baker doesn’t need extra motivation. The man treats a 2nd-and-7 in October like somebody insulted his mother.
September 4th, 2026 at 7:24 am
The only thing that can derail his career (this year, anyway) is a blown achilles, that’s likely a career-ender for a guy like him. I don’t see why the Bucs didn’t offer a 3 year extension with no guarantees for the 3rd, it’s sort of a face-saving thing
September 4th, 2026 at 7:37 am
@ Beeej
It’s been reported that the Bucs offered a 2 year extension worth @ $100M and he turned his nose up at that offer…
I believe Baker is once again rolling the dice and betting on himself.
If I wuz BM’s agent I would have told him to take the guaranteed cash because his style of play seems to lead to a slew of injury issues which affects his quality of play.
Good luck Baker.
September 4th, 2026 at 7:39 am
I pray that Baker throws the ball away until he gets the new contract.
No biscuit if you risk it
Baker Arian’s
September 4th, 2026 at 7:42 am
Todd that is hillarious!
September 4th, 2026 at 7:51 am
It’s doubtful that any team would do more than 2 years deal or 3 with less guaranteed money. I think the facts show he’s earned the money but also can be less effective over his career when he is banged up. Bucs have no other options and if anyone thinks Jalon Daniels is his replacement you drank too much coolaid.
September 4th, 2026 at 8:02 am
My take on the mood Mayfield may be in this fall has to do with eliminating the second quarter swoons that have been all too common with this team the last few years. You know, when we have a 10 point lead to start Q2 and Baker gets bored because it was easy to start. That’s what I’m hoping goes away.
September 4th, 2026 at 8:09 am
@Marine,
You notice that the one thing never mentioned about the two year offer is the guaranteed money? My bet is that is a big sticking point since Franchise Tags are fully guaranteed
September 4th, 2026 at 8:25 am
He already has money! Play out the contract, with a couple playoff wins? Then hes even richer…With the changes to the team a new start..No brainer.
Stupid real stupid post BJ ….UGH!
September 4th, 2026 at 8:30 am
@ Drunk
That’s a good point… I figured a majority would be guaranteed but that is unknown at this juncture.
September 4th, 2026 at 8:38 am
Looking for a shootout in Cincy…. could be fun to watch.
September 4th, 2026 at 8:55 am
I don’t know , it seems they could have given him 3 years. I mean comon who are they going to replace him with. It is like they are saying ok prove us wrong and we will give you a boat load of more money. That logic is interesting. I tell you what if he has even a decent year, some team out there is going to park a big boat at Mayfield’s house with a lot of cash. Yeah when it come s to qb the Bucs have made some pretty dumb decisions. Think D. Williams, S Young, J Winston. I say sign the Man and be done with it
September 4th, 2026 at 8:58 am
Ball out, Baker. Settle up bill when it’s time.
September 4th, 2026 at 9:08 am
J. Winston was not a mistake.
September 4th, 2026 at 9:08 am
The scenario to unfold:
Baker unfortunately gets injured.
Jalon Daniels comes in and takes us to the playoffs
Our D will be back to relevance
Baker Walks at end of year. Some foolish NFL will pay him 50 mill plus…Cleveland??
September 4th, 2026 at 9:10 am
I can truly appreciate BM’s confidence and moxy. However, he doesn’t have the leverage he thinks he has. In business, the person holding the purse strings has all the leverage. Baker is selling a service the Bucs want, but don’t need. There are other guys that offer the same service, even if they are not better than BM, but they are reliable. Sometimes the Mercedes is a really expensive nice to have, but you only need a Toyota that reliably gets you from point A to point B.
September 4th, 2026 at 9:15 am
@Marine
My initial reaction was, Baker…wtf are you thinking?
Then someone (don’t recall who) reported the guaranteed portion of the extension was the lowest of all starting QB’s. No clue how accurate that is, but that could provide a somewhat plausible explanation for him balking at the deal and feeling disrespected.
I still think he’s nuts for turning it down, but I hope he balls out and the Bucs have a deep playoff run.
September 4th, 2026 at 9:19 am
Mayfield is not Josh Allen, but both QB’s will break your heart with their heroics and then turnovers resulting in disappointment.
So, if Bucs eventually sign Mayfield to an extension, expect entertaining QB play combined with heartbreaking disappointment (coupled with the injury/OLine/Coaching excuses).
Rooting for Mayfield to overcome his past patterns is best Bucs fans can hope for.
September 4th, 2026 at 9:57 am
One thing no one seems to understand. A LOT of Baker’s poor performance last season, especially his ‘recklessness’ with the football, is directly related to the PISS POOR defense. Baker KNEW that his defense was gonna suck, and not stop anyone.
So, being the competitor that he is, he pushes things, and forces throws he would not make in an effort to make up for the poor defense. He KNEW he had to put up 40 to have a chance to win… and that leads to mistakes.
IF the defense is even 25% better this season, we’ll see a much better Baker.
BTW: the same thing happened in Cleveland, and in Carolina.
September 4th, 2026 at 10:16 am
Baker’s done lined heem up a new Sonic Drive-In deal… So, more commercials coming. Just like while in Cleveland, he’s better known as a ‘pitchman’ at this point, than a true legit ‘elite’ NFL Quarterback.