Excelled where Bucs struggled.

NFL veteran scribe Tyler Dunne typed things about the Bucs on his Substack page that stuck with Joe.

Until the Bucs defense proves otherwise, for the Bucs to make any sort of playoff run, Bucs coach Todd Bowles must lean on his offense. However, last year when anyone could see the defense stunk, Bowles chose too often instead to lean on his defense.

The results were both predictable and intensely aggravating. It didn’t have to be.

Yes, the Bucs offense had struggles last year. Many could be directly tied to injuries. That’s not an excuse. When the only healthy player on offense is the center, you are bound to have problems.

One problem was moving the ball on second downs.

Joe always liked how former NFL suit Michael Lombardi judged a good offense. That is an offense rarely seeing third downs because the offense is moving the ball on first and second down so well, it is moving the chains before it reaches third down.

Lombardi likened a good offense to pretending it is playing in the CFL, where there are only three downs per series.

So looking at the breakdown of the Bucs offense on each down, cobbled together in the Warren Sharp 2026 Football Preview, two numbers on second downs jumped out.

* The Bucs threw the ball ninth-most in the league on second downs.

* The Bucs were a bottom-six team for passing success rate on second downs.

Avg Dist to 1st Down: 7.6 (12th)
Pass Rate: 64.3% (9th)
Run Rate: 37.7% (26th)
Pass Success: 39.1% (27th)
Run Success: 40.2% (20th)

OK, the man behind the bad second-down offense is gone. Josh Grizzard is now an assistant with Philadelphia. In comes Zac Robinson to replace him from Atlanta.

And there is refreshing intel there.

Per Sharp, while the Dixie Chicks (Robinson) didn’t like to throw on second down (24th), Robinson’s offense was the second-best in the league on second down for success rate.

Yes, it helps to have maybe the best running back in the league in Bijan Robinson. But when healthy, it wasn’t like Bucky Irving was some scrub in 2024.

Generally, a successful play on second down is one that gains at least 60 percent of the yards needed for a first down.

So if Robinson was able to pull that off with a revolving door of subpar quarterbacks throwing to mostly meh receivers, what might Robinson do with a Pro Bowl quarterback and really good receivers?

To Joe, the forecast is promising.