Not-So-Lucky Baker Mayfield
June 2nd, 2026
Bet he takes that trade!
If past history is a gauge, Joe welcomes this bad prediction.
Recently, Mark Chichester of the PFF tribe suggested last year Baker Mayfield was lucky, even though after the bye, he really, really struggled.
Why was Mayfield lucky? Chichester claims Mayfield should have thrown more interceptions.
Well, Chichester did more digging. And as a result of more numbers crunching, Chichester expects Mayfield’s interception total to jump this fall.
Few quarterbacks in this dataset illustrate the volatility of interception luck more clearly than Mayfield. In 2019 with Cleveland, he finished as the second-unluckiest quarterback in football, with a net-luck figure of -8.1, throwing 21 interceptions on a passing profile the model projected to be closer to 13. Six years later, the variance swung dramatically in the opposite direction. Mayfield’s 2025 season ranked seventh among the luckiest quarterback seasons in the league, fueled by a turnover-worthy-throw-to-interception conversion rate of just 25.0% on 20 turnover-worthy throws. Defenders dropped six additional would-be interceptions, and Mayfield finished with 11 interceptions despite league-average outcomes projecting closer to 14.
The year-over-year swing was especially dramatic. Mayfield’s turnover-worthy-throw-to-interception conversion rate fell from 61.1% in 2024 to 25.0% in 2025, a drop of 36.1 percentage points that ranks among the 15 largest single-season swings in the entire dataset.
You know what? Joe welcomes the picks!
Let’s go back to 2024. That was the best Bucs season, at least the regular season, since Bucco Bruce Arians was running the show. Mayfield led the Bucs to 10 wins and an NFC South title. Mayfield threw for 4,500 yards, his career-best. He also threw 41 touchdowns, easily his career-best and second-best in the NFL that season. Only Joe Burrow had more (43).
But guess what? Mayfield led the NFL in interceptions (16).
So you know what, if Mayfield throwing more picks means Mayfield is throwing more touchdowns and the Bucs are winning more games, bring on the picks, man!
June 2nd, 2026 at 1:58 am
As long as Bake doesn’t try to outdue famous Jameis in that regard and go 41 TDs to 40 INTs he’ll be alright I think.
June 2nd, 2026 at 2:04 am
last year he was playing like an MVP before the Rams game. people seem to forget so quickly. not as explosive as 2024 but far fewer turnovers and he just kept finding a way to get’r done! even with injuries.
after the bye last year something was clearly off. he has grown a lot since his brown’s days and he’s a top 10 or top 12 QB in the NFL easily in my book. there are just a lot of haters out there because he talks a big game… and that’s why we love him.
June 2nd, 2026 at 2:44 am
Jameis was a 30-30 club not 40-40.
June 2nd, 2026 at 3:28 am
Awkward reasoning Jose. Interesting though that Baker threw more picks in the dink and dunk offense. Also threw more TDs but then he had Evans for more games and he wasn’t injured himself near as much. The game is much too complicated to be modeled with 9th grade statistics so I wouldn’t put much into that. This is what the NFL obsessed talk about in June though. I suggest a road trip to the beach instead. Or better yet, a boat ride.
June 2nd, 2026 at 3:35 am
I can live with 1 INT per game IF Baker’s throwing a lot of TDs to go along with that. But Bucs’ fans are all too familiar with what happens when picks get excessive.
The timing of the INTs is important IMO. Throw a pick early in the game, and a QB still has plenty of opportunities to make up for it. But throw one in the 4th qtr when you’re ahead of Atlanta 28-14 and you open the door for a Falcons’ comeback instead of nailing the coffin shut, and an ultimate 29-28 loss results. Timing can be everything.
June 2nd, 2026 at 6:09 am
Throwing a hail mary at the end of the half doesn’t bother me, as well as 4th down play at the end of the half. If the Bucs had a lock down defense, a pick in positive territory wouldn’t allow the other team to score.
June 2nd, 2026 at 6:37 am
So now we’re trading “luck” futures. What a country! What will $100.00 pay out if he’s unlucky?
June 2nd, 2026 at 7:06 am
My head is spinning at the reasoning behind this story….
June 2nd, 2026 at 7:42 am
Maybe Baker’s “luck” will improve this year now that certain receivers won’t be dropping easy catches over the middle and now our top two receivers will actually be practicing this season.
Won’t that be fun to watch?
June 2nd, 2026 at 7:48 am
‘Unluckiest’ That’s a new one.
June 2nd, 2026 at 8:01 am
Give me a break
“So you know what, if Mayfield throwing more picks means Mayfield is throwing more touchdowns and the Bucs are winning more games, bring on the picks, man!“
This sounds like rooting for Jameis to throw a pick so he can “ball out” only.
So yea, let’s take our possession of the football, give it back to the other teams without scoring, so we can manufacture a “comeback” to win a game that’d be winnable if we didn’t turn the ball over to begin with.
It’s like spraying cologne on a skunk, that’s the premise of this article
June 2nd, 2026 at 8:40 am
This has to be the “Joe” that named Winston as America’s QB.
If he’s excited for Baker to throw Int’s then 2025 must have been magical for him after the bye week.
Just imagine if we didn’t need to comeback from being outscored so much???
Then maybe Baker wouldn’t need to be such an irresponsible pass thrower.
2026 is going to be a bumpy ride. Let’s hope it inspires change at OBP.
June 2nd, 2026 at 8:47 am
Look, all those mumbo jumbo numbers mean absolutely nothing. We all know the angle of the dangle is equal to the mass of the azz. Baker was unlucky a few times when receivers batted the ball in the air or in at least two cases had the ball ripped out of their hands. Also, playing from behind tends to increase interceptions quite a bit. Baker really should have been benched for a game or two to heal, but all we had in reserve was a home ec teacher and a guy named Ballzac. The whole entire team and all of its management went straight to charlie heck last year. Hey, stuff happens. I can live with that. If we don’t do better this year head’s will certainly roll.
June 2nd, 2026 at 8:53 am
I’m old enough to remember a time when we had a QB (Vinny) that never threw more TD’s than INT’s in six entire years with the team. Generally loved Brad Johnson averaged roughly 3,800 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions per season with the Bucs.
By contrast, Baker’s had more TD’s than INT’s in every year he’s been in Tampa and has only missed the mark once in his entire career (2022 with the Stinkin’ Panthers, when he tied at 6). Since coming to town, Baker has averaged 4,079, 32, and 12.
Perspective, Buc Nation… perspective. We’ve had far worse play at QB, and he’s playing better than one of the guys that helped deliver a Super Bowl.
June 2nd, 2026 at 8:55 am
“… a net-luck figure of -8.1 …”
Wtf is a net-luck figure? Meaningless. I’ve got a better stat, just multiply Baker’s number of passing attempts last year by the number on his jersey and then add the zip code number of the stadium at our 3rd away game, divided by the collective weight of the offensive line (in kg, not lbs), and poof you have the gross metric yardage per diluted player quotient.
June 2nd, 2026 at 8:57 am
After further thought I think those idiotic numbers are just a wannabe alchemist looking for the patterns in the lottery numbers hoping to to predict a pattern. Ever listened to Shape of my Heart by Sting? He’s looking for patterns where there are none. He’s chasing ghosts.
June 2nd, 2026 at 9:13 am
Baker led the league in fumbles too in 2024….and how did our season end?….Baker fumble
Baker has to cut all turnovers down and protect the ball
GO BUCS
June 2nd, 2026 at 9:46 am
DING, DING, DING! DungyDance wins comment of the day.
June 2nd, 2026 at 12:34 pm
Mayfield felt compelled to push the limits of desperation due to Grazard’s limited skill level of running an offense. He had no experience or business running an offense. The last two OC’s had no experience but enjoyed success. For Grazard it wasn’t the case and all the injuries that mounted early on was the final blow.
The Bucs approached 2026 with not only a change in coaches and but drafting players with Attitudes. The NFL’s better teams won more games with this player mentality. Finally Jason Licht saw the light. These teams were winning with this formula.
The Bucs have a legitimate chance of winning their division and going to a championship game and maybe more.
June 2nd, 2026 at 1:22 pm
“if Mayfield throwing more picks means Mayfield is throwing more touchdowns and the Bucs are winning more games, bring on the picks, man!”
———-
Completely agree.
You win games by scoring more points than your opponent, something that dullards never seem to understand (Bowles being one of those dullards who takes the ball out of Brady’s hands at the end of a game and kicks FGs when you need TDs late in the 4th).