Josh Grizzard Was Tipping Pitches; Zac Robinson May Have, Too
July 23rd, 2026
Defenses didn’t need cryptologists to decipher Josh Grizzard’s tendencies last season.
It seems the most recent Bucs offensive coordinator (Josh Grizzard) was telegraphing plays.
The new Bucs offensive coordinator (Zac Robinson) seemed to be doing the same. But there’s a difference.
Joe just learned of former Eagles researcher Ryan Paganetti (@RyanPaganetti) on Twitter. He’s pumping out really, really good statistical data.
For example, his research shows that this century [“at least”] no NFL defense has prevented an offense from scoring a touchdown when it began a series on first-and-goal and ran a quarterback sneak on each snap. That’s pretty wild.
Other data: Last year no team had a bigger difference than Tampa Bay when using 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three receivers) from shotgun to having the quarterback under center.
All of the following data was on early downs, first- or second-downs.
When Grizzard had Baker Mayfield in shotgun in 11 personnel, Mayfield threw out 76 percent of the time. The Bucs threw the ball in 11 personnel when Mayfield was under center 24 percent of the time. That was the biggest gap in the NFL.
So basically, Grizzard was tipping his pitches. Nothing like flashing the defense what you likely will do. Maybe this is why the Bucs’ second-down production was poor last season?
But Grizzard is gone. Robinson is here. So Joe what did Robinson do in Atlanta under the same circumstances? Robinson wasn’t a whole lot better. Robinson and Atlanta had the fifth-widest margin using 11 personnel.
The Dixie Chicks threw the ball out of 11 personnel when in shotgun 81 percent of the time. When Atlanta quarterbacks were in 11 personnel under center, Robinson threw it 37 percent of the time.
So while Robinson may have tipped pitches more in shotgun than Grizzard, he also ran the ball more when his quarterbacks were under center in 11 personnel.
The difference is that Robinson had Bijan Robinson. Yeah, Grizzard had Bucky Irving who can run and catch, but he was banged up and missed quite a few games.
We’ll see if Robinson can mix things up more now that he’s working with a better quarterback, who can throw and run, and better receivers.
11 Personnel Early Down Run/Pass Tendency by QB Alignment
2025 Regular Season + PlayoffsMany defensive coordinators are now layering their calls so they are conditional on if you lined up in shotgun or under center
data via @FantasyPtsData pic.twitter.com/7KqFgXrq8E
— Ryan Paganetti (@RyanPaganetti) July 17, 2026
July 23rd, 2026 at 12:06 am
It’s gonna be painful when everyone realizes that Robinson isn’t Coen.
July 23rd, 2026 at 12:16 am
When I can sit at home, and I’m able to know if a play is run or pass, by the 2nd quarter of game 1, there’s an issue. However I wouldn’t say he was any worse than Canales, who was also really predictable. In any case, both were better than Leftwich, were I could (and did in the comments) script out 3 plays in a row – followed by a punt – coming out of commercial, and would nail it over and over again.
July 23rd, 2026 at 12:38 am
It would be nice to know the percentage of those plays that were successful.
July 23rd, 2026 at 2:37 am
Rod Munch: I’m 100% positive you actually did know every play, run or pass, from every football game you’ve ever watched. You’re the master predictor of all things Bucs (although you had them going 5-12 the year they went 10-7, only 5 games off).
July 23rd, 2026 at 3:49 am
Then, you throw in the whole Otton ordeal, on literally 💯 of our “Running-Plays,” & we never stood a CHANCE. The crazy thing being “I” freaking notice-it and brought-it to everyone’s attention RIGHT ON HERE (after confirming I knew for sure 💯 it really was EVERY single-time)… Then, several others caught on!!!! But, the BUCS THO… THEY just kept right on ‘keeping on’ FOR WEEKS. Until, FINALLY, one of the “SAINTS PLAYERS” let the cat outta the bag… PUBLICLY too, as we were going into our Bye-Week. NO ONE from the Bucs ever addressed-it to the media either, that I am aware of!? Hell, how could they… I guess, there wasn’t anyone there to “address-it,” since there weren’t any practices!? EVEN, when they came outta the Bye, they were STILL doing it… Just NOT 100% of the time LoL. It was the damndest thing I’d ever seen before, for an “NFL TEAM.”
It goes to show you just how ‘single-minded’ Bowles really is, and is ONLY focused on the DEFENSE… Hell, it’s WHY they had to hire HIM special (game-day/time-out/clock-management) ‘situational’ assistants, especially FOR HIM. I’ve seen-it too many times… We all have. The clock is ticking down in the 4th-Quarter, we’re down 1-score, with 2-3 timeouts left, and are driving with the ball down the field. Click, click, click, CLICK (everyone in the stands, and at home are like, “CALL A TIMEOUT”)… And, HE IS JUST COMPLETELY CLUELESS.
Then, the OC (or ‘someone’) has to come running, while trying to get HIS attention. It’s UNBELIEVABLE. All while, HE’S STILL worried about what HIS friggin “DEFENSE” DID on the previous drive… AND, he is seriously, looking through HIS “DEFENSIVE” Playbook, ALREADY OBSESSING OVER what the “DEFENSE” is going to do on “THEIR” NEXT DRIVE.
HE literally FORGOT that “HE” was the HEAD FREAKING COACH. I’ve seen-it before… RIGHT THERE, on the sidelines. Entirely, tuned-OUT on what the hell HIS Offense is doing. I mean, IF he was truly paying ANY ‘attention’ whatsoever at ALL, to “HIS OFFENSE” (he’s the HC)… Then, don’t you THINK (being the “defensive guru” that he is) that he would’ve ‘noticed’ that about OTTON!? I mean, seriously… It. Was. EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Literally, every time they ran the BALL.
July 23rd, 2026 at 4:08 am
Not only did our opponents KNOW 💯 that it was going to be a “RUN,” and 💯 without any shadow of doubt, that it was NOT A PASS… But, they also KNEW 💯 “WHERE” they were running-it to!!!! LoL. Again, EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Now, they “tried” changing-it up (a little) AFTER the “Bye-Week,” and AFTER the “Saints Player” had to embarrass them like that, PUBLICLY. But, THEY STILL, could not keep from it entirely, and help from falling right back into the exact SAME old routine… And, BAD HABITS. I mean, you’d THINK even your ‘franchise’ QUARTERBACK would’ve notice-it HIMSELF… Maybe, had HE been “focused,” too!?
July 23rd, 2026 at 5:42 am
Happiness is being up two scores in the 4th quarter and letting the opposing defense know that you’re going to run the ball and there’s not a darn thing they can do about it.
July 23rd, 2026 at 6:48 am
That part about no defense stopping an offense using QB sneak every snap from goal to go….
One thing real football and Madden actually have in common
July 23rd, 2026 at 7:13 am
Passing from Shotgun at the second highest rate in the NFL, 76.6%, behind an injury riddled Offensive Line that could not pass protect was the Bucs go to play once they crossed midfield.
Every opponent knew and loosed the big dogs to get after Baker time after time. It didn’t just end drives. Sacks in those situations often took the Bucs out of field goal position.
Given that the Bucs lost 3 games by 3 points, another by 4 points, and another by 5 points, that tendency of overwhelmingly passing from shotgun was enough to cost the Bucs a winning season and the division title.
July 23rd, 2026 at 7:13 am
Didn’t they pretty much have to run Penix out of the gun because he wasn’t good under center?
July 23rd, 2026 at 7:51 am
The knock on Robinson was, if the Falcons were in shotgun they’d be passing and would run primarily out of the pistol. What’s alarming about that, is that there are gripes from the ATL fan base going back to 2024 about the same tendency.
72% run rate out of the pistol, while also running the formation more than any other team in the league. Exactly the same run rate they had out of the pistol in ’24.
86% pass rate when coming out in the shotgun formation. In 2024 it was about 82% pass frequency out of the Shotgun.
So, yea all eyes on the preseason and how Robinson calls his games in terms of formation variance, and whether or not he’s self-aware enough to ditch the bad habits that led to the Falcons canning Morris’ entire staff.
July 23rd, 2026 at 7:51 am
Some of ya’ll want this man to be the HC looool
July 23rd, 2026 at 7:51 am
Some of ya’ll want this man to be the HC looool
July 23rd, 2026 at 7:52 am
Too bad out defensive GURU couldn’t figure out that Robinson had been tipping plays for the last 2 years.
July 23rd, 2026 at 8:11 am
Robinson is clearly more qualified as an OC than GRIZZARD who had no OC pedigree. Between that and the numerous injuries on the offensive line Griz was simply overwhelmed. He never had a chance. Plus the Bucs weren’t going to wait around for that to happen. The Nfl is an instant gratification league. Very few second chances.
July 23rd, 2026 at 8:37 am
so the Giants are awesome
July 23rd, 2026 at 8:47 am
I still feel bowles NOT being able to protect a lead was a large part of the problem. Having to play from behind causes the offense to play catch up. This forces the qb to throw mostly from under pressure thus increasing the odds of something bad to happen. INTS.
July 23rd, 2026 at 8:49 am
Warren; Robinson isn’t gonna call the same plays and tricks in the Pre-season! At least I hope he isn’t that dumb to give every team the correct film to counter…week one tells the tale
July 23rd, 2026 at 9:12 am
“Warren; Robinson isn’t gonna call the same plays and tricks in the Pre-season! At least I hope he isn’t that dumb to give every team the correct film to counter…week one tells the tale”
Sir, it’s an install year, how sophisticated do you think the play calls will be in about a month from now in comparison to a few weeks after that when the regular season starts? Also, if the call of predictability were a thing both seasons in ATL, not too farfetched to think there will be some overlap in what’s called throughout the preseason & start of the regular season.
Not trying to fully down Robinson, just saying there’s good and bad that come with him calling the offense. We’ll have a front row seat to see whether or not that was due to what he had to work with in ATL in comparison to TB-OR-if his bad habits are a biproduct of his ideals as an offensive coach he’s not willing to rework/improve upon or a mix of both.
“I love this game & breaking down tape, but I’m struggling to watch the ATL O tape!!! Predictable… boring (same plays over and over)… don’t like the spacing often… lots of miscommunication… just don’t really get it??!”
-Kurt Warner after the Falcons lost 34-10 to the Dolphins.
July 23rd, 2026 at 9:29 am
Typical. Some folks are already claiming Zac Robinson will be a failure who can’t possibly measure up to Coen. Looking at the chart, Coen wasn’t a whole lot better with the Jaguars last year.
It would be interesting to know what his percentages were in 2024 when Coen was calling plays for the Bucs.
Also interesting to note: The Jets and Dolphins were the best at not telegraphing the play.
July 23rd, 2026 at 10:06 am
that’s hardly tipping pitches
July 23rd, 2026 at 11:00 am
Robinson may end up being worse than Grizzard.
July 23rd, 2026 at 12:05 pm
Everyone needs to understand, Bucky Irving is a head case. He’s likely done.
July 23rd, 2026 at 12:52 pm
He was able to mask a lot of his own ‘deficiencies’ while in ATL, due to having far superior, ELITE TALENT. Any of us here, could line-up Bijan in the Pistol like that… Then, hand him the ball, and just say GO.
July 23rd, 2026 at 1:38 pm
MelvinJunior Says:
July 23rd, 2026 at 12:52 pm
He was able to mask a lot of his own ‘deficiencies’ while in ATL, due to having far superior, ELITE TALENT. Any of us here, could line-up Bijan in the Pistol like that… Then, hand him the ball, and just say GO.
^^^^^^^
They had Kirk Cousins at the most important position, and he was only ELITE against Todd Bowles defenses.
July 23rd, 2026 at 1:58 pm
Why don’t you all stop being so negative, the man hasn’t done anything yet for us to see. I agree Grizzard was a total fiasco, we all did know the predictable plays on offense and always on defense. Hoping for a chance to see a change and staying positive.
July 24th, 2026 at 11:05 am
Honestly, the shotgun percentage means nothing. Depending on game situation everyone knows it’s pass anyway. Think two minute drill, down by double digits in the serving half. Teams will go all shotgun when the game says you need to pass. It’s the early game, early downs that determine if you are predictable.