Bucs Can’t Get Over The Hump
May 22nd, 2026
National prediction.
It will be the same ol’ same ol’ for the Bucs this fall.
And that’s a problem, typed Gilberto Manzano of SI.com.
In a rundown of each team’s schedule, Manzano said the Bucs will be the Bucs this fall, partly because this may be their least talented team this decade.
Manzano sees the Bucs doing what they have done in the past four seasons: finishing right around .500. But this time, even with a 9-8 record, Manzano sees the Bucs getting squeezed out of the playoffs again.
The Buccaneers have hit a wall that I don’t think they can overcome. …they constantly play down to their mediocre competition in the NFC South, and now their division rivals have improved this offseason.
Being average and winning more than eight games won’t be enough this season. Also, Tampa Bay took a hit with Mike Evans, Jamel Dean and Lavonte David no longer with the team. But maybe I’ll regret this prediction because the schedule-makers did the Buccaneers a favor by balancing out the slate.
Manzano hit one nail on the head. Way, way too many times the Bucs play down to their opponents.
Manzano has the Bucs missing out on the playoffs thanks to the slimy Saints, who Manzano believes will go 10-7. Joe doesn’t get the slimy Saints love. At all.
If Joe is worried about any team in the NFC South, it’s the Stinking Panthers. They’re the division champs. And Joe thinks they got better in the draft.
Panthers receivers Tet Offensive McMillan and Chris Brazzell facing Benjamin Morrison and Zyon McCollum is a bad matchup for the Bucs. But, that’s what happens when you let your best cornerback walk out the door.
As Raheem Morris famously said, “I will tolerate you until I can replace you.” Joe doesn’t yet see Jamel Dean’s replacement on the roster — unless you are going to tell Joe that’s Jacob Parrish, who KitKat-eating Bucs coach Todd Bowles still refers to as a nickel.
May 22nd, 2026 at 12:08 am
He’s likely not wrong…
I foresee Panthers in 1st place in division, Bucs and Saints battle for 2 nd place and the Falcons fall to the basement….
May 22nd, 2026 at 12:44 am
oh man that’s the easy way out, the “AI” answer , even real fans can’t remember last season before the injuries? Baker mvp chants, this is a better team, the locker room is better, Really now the 9-8 Panthers are legit? one hard hit away from the Red Rocket leading the way.
May 22nd, 2026 at 12:51 am
Thats because coaching matters. And glazers took the cheap route by retaining him. He’s been bailed out from a garbage division to make him look more successful than he really is.
May 22nd, 2026 at 1:05 am
Manzano is clueless we have the most talented team in the division and them boys from the U ain’t coming to Mess around. If we stay healthy we are one of the best teams in the nfc book it.
May 22nd, 2026 at 1:39 am
It’s all speculation no point losing any sleep one way or another
May 22nd, 2026 at 1:40 am
I predict that barring another nightmare injury division, the Bucs go deep into the playoffs and the Falcons, Panthers and the Saints bomb. Dave Canales will lose his job after this season.
May 22nd, 2026 at 1:41 am
Some big ifs, if the o starters stay healthy and if we have an upgrade at OC this team can win 10 games, maybe more if the young players on D step up.
May 22nd, 2026 at 3:38 am
The article lost me after a paragraph or two. I guess there’s no sense in watching the upcoming season at all, right? There idiots have no idea how football actually works. If it were easy to win nobody would bother watching.
May 22nd, 2026 at 4:29 am
Manzano … ‘The Buccaneers have hit a wall that I don’t think they can overcome. …they constantly play down to their mediocre competition in the NFC South, and now their division rivals have improved this offseason. Being average and winning more than eight games won’t be enough this season.’
I like his basic rationale (ie, playing down to our NFC South competition) and it makes good sense IMO. That’s exactly what we did last season, and we missed the playoffs as a result. Bucs went 3-3 in the division last year, but we went 4-2 in the NFC South each of the 2 years prior to that … and made the playoffs each year (barely). All of last year’s intra-division games were extremely close (except for the first Saints game that we won 23-3). The other 5 games (2W-3L) were decided by a TOTAL of only 13 points. Our 3 division losses were by a TOTAL of only 8 points. Point being: all 3 of those intra-division losses were perfectly winnable, and our record COULD have been 11-6 instead of 8-9 had we prevailed.
Last year’s schedule hurt us because we played 4 division games very late in the season when we had several key players (including Baker) pretty well beat up. Bucs played 4 of our last 5 games against our division rivals … and proceeded to go 1-3 in those 4 critical games. And what was really sad is that 3 of those last 4 NFC South games were at HOME, and we barely squeezed out ONE win.
So yes, Manzano’s right, we did in fact ‘play down to our mediocre competition in the NFC South’. More like we rolled over & played dead. Our supposed defensive strength … our Run Defense … disappeared in those last 3 losses, but reappeared in our last win.
o Game 13: Saints win 24-20 … 32 rushes – 139 yds (4.3 YPC) – 3 TDs rushing.
o Game 14: Falcons win 29-20 … 21 rushes – 111 yds (5.3 YPC) – 1 TD rushing.
o Game 15: Panthers win 23-20 … 20 rushes – 101 yds (5.1 YPC) – 0 TD rushing.
o Game 17: Panthers lose 16-14 … 14 rushes – 19 yds (1.4 YPC) – 0 TD rushing.
Manzano’s analysis falls apart IMO when he states that ‘this may be their least talented team this decade’. Bucs were soft last season, especially in those 3 intra-divisional losses. We’ve gotten a LOT TOUGHER far as I can see, but that still has to translate onto the field. IF it does, and I believe it will, there’s no reason this year’s Bucs can’t win at least 10 games, win the NFC South, and make the playoffs.
May 22nd, 2026 at 6:03 am
Pray to the football gods that we have a light injury season as we are certainly due for one, because our lack of quality depth has been frightening and a major cause of “The Debacle” last season and a lack of trade deadline deals to improve the quality.
May 22nd, 2026 at 6:14 am
Every qb in this division is far behind Baker. Our defense got a lot better. Our offense will be way better just from injured players coming back. This will be a completely different team than was playing at the end of last year. And LVD retiring wasn’t a bad thing because he wasn’t helping all that much anyways. Dean was- but our highly drafted corners should be able to grow into replacing him. Healthy, we are still a far better team than our competition! All of the falcons and the Panthers and the Saints now have 2 viable wide receivers finally. We have several more. We also added a ton of speed to the middle of our defense to help deal with them. And our pass rush will be much improved- which is the key to our defense working.
May 22nd, 2026 at 6:48 am
It’s because the Saints have three much easier games on their schedule than the rest of the NFC South.
While the rest of the NFC South is playing the 49ers, Rams and Seahawks, the Saints get the Cardinals. While the rest of the NFC South is playing the Cowboys, Eagles and Commanders, the Saints get the Giants. While the rest of the NFC South is playing the Broncos, Chargers and Chiefs, the Saints get the Raiders.
That’s three games that the rest of the NFC South is playing teams where they will be underdogs while the Chiefs will like be favorites in their three. A three game advantage in the NFC South is HUGE.
May 22nd, 2026 at 6:50 am
Oops, I meant the Saints will be favorites in those three games.
May 22nd, 2026 at 6:50 am
The Aints don’t have a 4th place schedule this year, the Bucs have a TON of improved depth on the O line, 4 of our starting front 7 have been upgraded. (THREE of the 4 aren’t even in the NFL anymore)
We’re a better team than opening day last year, we’re gonna win 11
May 22nd, 2026 at 6:53 am
“It will be the same ol’ same ol’ for the Bucs this fall.”
Well no (spit!) The very definition of insanity…? “Retain Bowles as the HC / DC and expect different results.”
May 22nd, 2026 at 6:59 am
Seems to me like the Bucs are at least as good as last year. David had clearly lost a step and Mike Evans did nothing for the team last year, so how could he be a loss this year? Dean is the only real loss … well at least for the 10-12 games he plays.
The Bucs are only worse off at cornerback. Hopefully they add another decent veteran before the season starts. They are slightly better at linebacker. The wide receiver room is probably a push (remember the Bucs didn’t have three out of the top four receivers for the majority of the season last year). The engine of any offense – the offensive line – should be considerably better. And, I think we’ll have a marginally better pass rush.
Really, I only see two guaranteed losses on the schedule – the Rams, who are clearly better and always beat the Bucs and the Ravens who always beat any team in the NFC. The entire rest of the schedule are coin flip games.
May 22nd, 2026 at 7:06 am
I think we play down to our opponents because of our QB (and probably a few others guys as well). He is very much like JW in that he gets excited about the 4Q comeback but seems to get bored when we take a lead in the first quarter.
May 22nd, 2026 at 7:09 am
DR. I believe that week 14 game was 29-28, not 29-20. Not that it matters.
May 22nd, 2026 at 7:19 am
I don’t think the bucs can win a Superbowl with Baker Mayfield and Bowles and you can’t keep one without the other. Baker has never lead a game winning drive in the playoffs or to close out the division. The Panthers game he threw a pick and lost the game that wasn’t the defense fault or the OC . He couldn’t close out the Falcons game and he 2 optointes to do it and choked both times the pick he threw on that drive would have closed out the game and missed Payne Durham wide open in the middle of the field and both times he time to throw the ball. He’s not clutch in big in big moments and I think that’s why he haven’t gotten extended yet. Ain’t no GM or owner will let this contract extension go this long if they believe he can get you to a Superbowl. He would have gotten extended last year if they really believe in him . No other team in the NFL wants BAKER as they’re franchise quarterback but his fan base and his family. He’s a bridge quarterback at this point of his career he’s never been elite so being a 32 year old quarterback next year not the same as a quarterback that’s been elite in they’re career. 32 years old is young with elite quarterbacks but average at best is a old quarterback.
May 22nd, 2026 at 7:28 am
Jack Burton Mercer. “He is very much like JW”. JBM. How can I put this? Start by saying the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were a joke of a franchise the entire time he was in Tampa. And since Baker has been in Tampa our team has been anything but a joke.
May 22nd, 2026 at 7:33 am
Oneilbuc is a joke. He said the QB with the second most TD passes and third most passing yards in the NFL the last 3 years is a bridge QB. But everyone knows that the joke is Oneilbuc.
May 22nd, 2026 at 8:20 am
Ppl can shoot the messenger all they want. Look at the history of this HC. A game over or under 500 is what he does. 9-8 is likely his ceiling. If everything goes right and he gets all the luck maybe he stretches it to 10 which he’s done only only twice in 7 seasons. That’s what we call an adequate sample size.
As for the injuries last year look around the league the last several years. That trend is here to stay. It’s up to the gm to provide depth and the HC to plan for it and adjust.
The division competition has been the thing propping Todd up. If it gets better the result is fairly obvious based on objective data.
May 22nd, 2026 at 8:25 am
Kenton. Lol 🤣🤣 stats that don’t equal to wins don’t mean nothing and if he was as good as you say he is then why did Sam Donald beat him out of his job in Carolina? Why is it he’s on his 4th team
Why he haven’t gotten his extension yet if he’s is a franchise quarterback because teams don’t let elite quarterbacks walk.
May 22nd, 2026 at 8:51 am
Osqueel. Don’t know who Sam Donald is . But Sam Darnold is on his 5th team. Teams don’t let franchise Quarterbacks walk right? He finally won a Super Bowl with the right Team around him .
May 22nd, 2026 at 8:53 am
Elite
May 22nd, 2026 at 9:38 am
Easily predictable when historical evidence makes reality plain as day.
Evans and Dean are gone. Baker and Bowles remain.
“What’s my prediction?” “Pain”. – Clubber Lang
5-12 And the Glazer kids stick with Bowles, again.
May 22nd, 2026 at 10:11 am
These experts just look at the final records and are lazy as hell.
Last year, the Bucs NEVER had their starting oline play a single game together.
Their WRs were beat up, the QB got beat up..
They’ve gotten much more physical, stronger, deeper at many positions.
The pass rush will be much better. The LBer play will be much better. The oline will be much better. The ST will be MUCH better.
Sure, they need to play more consistently week in and week out.
It will all come down to health and how well Baker plays.
May 22nd, 2026 at 10:14 am
It is near impossible for a .500 team to get “over the hump.”
May 22nd, 2026 at 11:03 am
I guess the question comes down to this. If the Bucs finish anywhere between 8-9 to 10-7, which seems more likely than not based on the last 4 years of results under Todd Bowles, then what will be the reasoning for letting him go? The Glazers really backed themselves into a corner this off season. I keep going back to that damn documentary that they produced. They insisted that they are only interested in winning, yet they had a chance to upgrade the coaching staff and keep a HOF player in Evans and they chose not to. I promise you, the pool of available difference making coaches will be considerably less next year than the one past off season.
May 22nd, 2026 at 11:52 am
Oneilbuc is on point. Kenton’s stats are rolled out with seemingly clever omission. Baker has also led the League in interceptions, fumbles and swatted balls. The swatted balls is just leaving butt-nakedly open receivers getting free cardio behind defenders. If Baker does not become an ‘OnField CEO’, he’ll continue to lose games. In 2023 facing the great Desmond Ridder, Baker tossed a 4th Quarter Pick to the Falcons Richie Grant at their 10 to lose 16 – 13. The Thursday night game on October 3, 2024 with a lead and 2:55 and a 1st and 10 at the Falcons 32, he hands the ball off to Bucky against an ‘8-Man Box w/Creeper’. No competent, confident QB hands that ball off. Bates II stripped Bucky with two wide receivers open. No biggie…under 2:00, Lavonte intercepts Cousins at the Falcons’ 28. Baker hands the ball off to Rachaad for -3. We end up punting on 4th and 24 leading to a loss. Baker cannot lead. Come crunch time—his tactics routinely stink. No teams survives with a QB you can use to defeat the Bucs directly through.
May 22nd, 2026 at 12:47 pm
If the Bucs stay relatively healthy this year – (OLine in particular!) – this is a 10 or 11 win team. Maybe better if everything goes right!
Bucs are the most talented team in the division and top 5 in the NFC.
Baker is by far the best QB in the the NFCS – and again – top 5 QB in the NFC as well…
Jason Licht has been KILLING IT on draftday(s) for the last 5 years straight. This 2026 Bucs team is LOADED with young talent (EE, JMac, Bucky, Barton, Mauch, Kancey, Diaby, Bain, Trotter, Parrish, Smith, Morrison, Scott)… also has just the right amount of higher end veteran talent to go along with that (Baker, Godwin, Gainwell, Otton, Wirfs, Goedeke, Vea, Winfield, Anzalone).
Now take a look at that list of good and potentially great players again and try telling me we don’t have a LOT of talent on this Buccaneers football team.
Not only that – but there’s plenty of additional talent now up and down the depth charts (Browning, Tez, Hurst, Tucker, Bredeson, Skule, Chukwuma, Robinson, Nunez-Roches, Roberts, Muhammed, Walker, Nelson, Rozeboom, Dennis).
Everyone seems to forget that both Jason and Todd have been playing with one hand behind their backs so to speak for the last 3 straight years. Starting each of those years at more than $50M OVER the salary cap prior to the start of the league year and free agency. Paying off all the debt racked up during the Brady years….
The only way out of a financial mess like that if you hope to stay competitive – is to draft your way out of it. And that is exactly what Jason Licht has done.
Now and moving forward – the team is loaded with mostly young talent and the financials will be much easier to manage as long as mostly good decisions in that regard keep being made.
The future is bright for this team I believe.
Too many are still wallowing in the major disappointment of 2-7 the back half of last year and assuming some similar ish happens again this year. I doubt it.
I think our Buccaneers are going to play winning football in 2026 – and might be good enough to make some noise in the playoffs if most of the team can stay healthy well into January…
Time will tell…. a lot can and will happen between now and then….
May 22nd, 2026 at 12:53 pm
Funny how most and Joes flamed Dean constantly but now that he’s gone (like they wanted), he was our best DB… which is what i said for years. If we didn’t have talent waiting in the wings, he would’ve been our biggest offseason loss this past year. Evans contributed very little last season, David was above average…
Anywhoo… dude says the Bucs don’t have as much talent as they did… do they not remember 2023? They were salary cap strapped and didn’t have tons of talent. We are far more talented than that team and most importantly, we will have a far better OC than we had in Dave Canales… whom trolls in these parts forget that Mayfield gifted him a head coaching gig.
May 22nd, 2026 at 1:16 pm
Counting how many step Baker. ” HAPPY FEET ” takes will determine how many games they lose. Mike Evans ” I don’t know how many games TB will lose but…they have my condolences”. Mike saw the future and he bailed……… I think I’m gonna cry… 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭
May 22nd, 2026 at 1:44 pm
“Seems to me like the Bucs are at least as good as last year.”
Hmmmm… I’m not really a “buyer” on the Saints right now, at all… I think both, the Panthers and Falcons are better. But, saying that BAKER is “the best” QB in the NFC SOUTH Division, is entirely irrelevant. Like, that’s really saying something there!? It’s a totally, meaningless, statement. Seriously, I wonder if a lot of these people on here, even WATCHED this Bucs team (and offense) PLAY last season at all, down the stretch. It’s as if they are living in a dream world, and refusing to remember it… I mean, are you BLIND!? We were only a 3-point ‘win’ away, (against the CARDINALS at HOME) from being 1-8 over our last 9-GAMES. No one in the LEAGUE was playing any WORSE than us. And, it’s not like we were facing-off against “murderers row” here, either. It was quite possibly, THE ‘weakest’ stretch of games to end a season with, in NFL HISTORY. So, what the HELL are people even talking about by saying things like, at least as “GOOD” as last year… GOOD!? I mean, we were sooooo far away from being “GOOD.” “Good” should not even be in OUR vocabulary right now. These guys are complete total TRASH, until “THEY” prove otherwise… And, that is actually “ON’ the field. Enough of this “TALK” from JL and everyone else. Just shut up and DO your job. Cause, I don’t wanna hear it. I am SICK of it. Especially, with this entire bunch… Year after freaking YEAR. Then, PROVE-IT. I mean, this fanbase has to be THE MOST ‘delusional’ in the entire league (even more so than the Cowboys). It’s ALL “Smoke & Mirrors.” And, they fall for it… Hook. Line. And, Sinker. EVERY TIME. There comes a time, when they are who they are.
May 22nd, 2026 at 2:00 pm
At least with the Cowboys, they actually do have some ‘ELITE’ talent on their roster. They most always do. But, THIS Bucs Team absolutely does NOT. Seriously, other than Tristan Wirfs… WHO does the Bucs have on their entire roster you would call an “ELITE” player at their position!? An “EXPLOSIVE” player/prospect who is a legitimate THREAT to take it to THE HOUSE anytime the ball is in HIS HANDS. A Top 5-10 “TALENT” at their position… Or, even 15-20 right now, for this current Bucs Teams. Hell, we haven’t DRAFTED a single “PRO-BOWLER” now, going on 6-YEARS. And, EVERYONE already KNOWS that we for sure as hell, haven’t SIGNED ONE. I don’t even wanna KNOW for how long that has been.
May 22nd, 2026 at 3:26 pm
Just wait until the real practices begin, for this upcoming preseason. These people will be hanging onto EVERY injury report, and panicking over EVERY little hangnail, & etc. When I’ll be like… (Yawn) “Okay. Yep. Oh, Well.”