First And Fourth Quarters Killing Bucs
December 19th, 2025
Bucs coach Todd Bowles.
If a team consistently starts slow and bends over later near the end, it won’t win many games. That’s where the Bucs find themselves with three games to go.
NFL stathead Ian Hartitz has a graphic showing the point differential of every team in the league for each quarter.
The Bucs rank as the sixth-worst team for point differential in the opening quarter. The Bucs are the fifth-worst in the fourth quarter.
And folks are surprised the Bucs have lost six of their last eight games.
In the first quarter, the Bucs have a negative point differential of -32. That tells Joe they are simply not ready for games. Either that, or they are fully caught off guard by what opponents show in the opening quarter. No team with a worse opening quarter point differential than the Bucs has a shot at the playoffs.
And, apparently, the Bucs don’t know how to close out games. The Bucs have a -37 point differential in the fourth quarter.
Some would argue the defense doesn’t adjust. Period.
The only team with a worse point differential in the final quarter than the Bucs that has a prayer of the playoffs is Pittsburgh (-41).
You hear a lot about starting fast. The Bucs apparently talk about this better than producing it.
It’s no wonder the Bucs lost in the fourth quarter to the slimy Saints and the Dixie Chicks, both with losing records.
NFL point differential by quarter pic.twitter.com/UpmQFkszKE
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 18, 2025
December 19th, 2025 at 9:15 am
More damning evidence against Bowles. There’s so many other stats that paint the same picture of his failures. Coming out of bye weeks 2-6 I believe. 2-10 in prime time games during his reign. Pass defense bottom 3rd in the league last 3 yrs. His resume is filled with red flags even Helen Keller could see.
December 19th, 2025 at 9:24 am
Need better leaders and draft picks!
December 19th, 2025 at 9:26 am
Another “statistical illustration” to buttress something that I have been saying for at least the past two years. But, It doesn’t matter. Whatever it takes to get rid of CTB I’m on board. Glad to see that most people now feel the same way. Sad that it has been allowed to get to this point.
The Glazers are on the clock.
December 19th, 2025 at 9:32 am
Fire Todd
December 19th, 2025 at 9:35 am
28th generating points in the 1st quarter w/an average of 3.4 points per 1st qtr
29th generating points in the 4th quarter w/an average of 4.9 points per 4th qtr
We have a total of 5 first quarter TDs
we have a total of 6 fourth quarter TDs
The type of inactivity you have to “comeback” from, especially to start this season.
December 19th, 2025 at 9:42 am
Not surprised.
7-10 is coming
December 19th, 2025 at 9:48 am
so 50% of the game the team is asleep.
December 19th, 2025 at 10:07 am
It’s the week before Christmas and this is a bad team…
End of story!
The time for excuses is over!
Flatline for the past 3 years regardless of the “record “
The Fat Lady is humming….
December 19th, 2025 at 10:14 am
Sounds like a coaching issue to me….
December 19th, 2025 at 10:16 am
What’s killing the Bucs is in the photo above.
December 19th, 2025 at 10:18 am
Hasn’t this been the case the entire Bowles’ tenure?
December 19th, 2025 at 10:27 am
The intrigue of door number 2 beckons. Of course that doesn’t guarantee success as we’ve seen time and time again. Who knows, yearly nine and eight records may become 6 and 10 records with a new change. Then what? So the decision is clearly an important one. McCarthy is a retread. Kubiak is an unknown even though he’s getting a lot of press. Seattle’s offense is more conservative than ours. And their defense is currently much better which is why a game like last night’s was able to happen. So similar offense. But unless we make a major change on the other side of the ball, not just with coaching. But with players, we’re in the same boat. I would love to get a top DC while improving the roster on that side of the ball. I think the offense here will be fine.. Even with griz. He’s a smart guy and he will have learned a lot from this year. I still think he has a bright future.
December 19th, 2025 at 10:32 am
Not great, but maybe turnaround this week.
Off subject. What are the Bucs uniforms for the next 3 games?
December 19th, 2025 at 10:41 am
I’ll have to say offensively we’ve sucked worse in the 1st and 4th qtrs than we have defensively. So it really sucks bad. Combine poor 3rd down conversion numbers and red zone inadequacy, our offensive coordinator is on a very hot seat. Last year all those numbers were amongst the best in the league. The injuries have shielded Grizz from harsh review so far but that is over. This offense more than has the horses, and he’d better let them run.
December 19th, 2025 at 10:47 am
Start slow end slow….Not a good recipe for success. The offense does have the horses now, but hopefully it’s not too late. I’m not doom and gloom so I’d really like this team to go on a little run.
December 19th, 2025 at 10:52 am
Are all your heads going to explode when Bowles is announced as our 2026 coach? Lol
December 19th, 2025 at 10:56 am
Deeboooo – My head won’t explode. If he is, he is. I will still support and cheer our team.
December 19th, 2025 at 11:00 am
I fully expect him to be our coach next year. And the next. And probably the next! Go Bucs!
December 19th, 2025 at 11:01 am
Terrible Defense, Terrible Offense
Fire the entire coaching staff
December 19th, 2025 at 11:03 am
Bowles looks like if Seal and a seal had a baby
December 19th, 2025 at 11:06 am
“The injuries have shielded Grizz from harsh review so far but that is over. This offense more than has the horses, and he’d better let them run.”
The glimpses of performing well this season, kind of takes that excuse off the table and the fact he’s always going back to the same pattern of behavior with his calls shows that.
Would also love to see what our points scored off turnover. As bad as the D has been as of late, they’re 7th in takeaways and surprisingly, you can find pretty much any stat BUT point generated off turnovers. For the life of me, idk why that stat is basically ignored without having through reps and do the tallying yourself.
December 19th, 2025 at 11:08 am
HeartyDickerson. That’s a Dick thing to say.
December 19th, 2025 at 11:08 am
If Todd Bowles wins 2 of the next 3 ? he will be back next season for more mediocrity.
December 19th, 2025 at 11:23 am
Starting slow and not being able to score in the 4th-Quarter, is ‘the recipe’ for certain DEFEAT. Disaster.
December 19th, 2025 at 11:24 am
Panthers at -94 in the second quarter. We’ll need to outscore them by 94 in that quarter.
December 19th, 2025 at 11:40 am
We criticize Todd for playing not to lose and he has been going for it a lot on 4th downs. Not converting on them really takes a toll. I really expected with Grizz experience of a 3rd down specialist the conversion rate would be better.
December 19th, 2025 at 11:41 am
What’s killing the Bucs is Todd Bowles. He’s sucked the life out of the team, and the fan base. He needs to go along with Licht, who thinks his drafting is way better than it really is. He didn’t fill one hole on this team from last season, and the results are showing up big time.
December 19th, 2025 at 11:47 am
Repeatedly the Bucs come out FLAT.
You can scheme all you want.
But if they come out flat it does not matter.
Night and day difference from last year. They were +50 in the 1st Qtr for 17 games
BTW Coen the Jags 1st qtr +21 and have been averaging over 30+ a game lately
Anyone can criticize Coen for leaving, but this guy knows how to run an NFL offense
It is not just about Xs and O’s its also about feel and calling the right play at the right time,
Grizzard just is not there yet.
December 19th, 2025 at 11:49 am
@ Deeboooo Says: “Are all your heads going to explode when Bowles is announced as our 2026 coach? Lol”
YES 💯. I will be DONE. I have been thinking the same LoL. If Lickt AND Bowles are BOTH BACK… I just can’t. It would be total insanity. And, Baker better NOT go out on a limb by ‘publicly’ supporting them, either. He better be throwing THEM BOTH ‘under the bus’ behind-the-scenes, as well. 12-YEARS is just way too LONG for Mr. Lickt. And, Bowles has got to go… He’s Lickt. They are totally CLUELESS. We need new energy and a fresh BOLDER philosophy. Just take a look throughout the league ( in business and in life)… BOLDNESS WINS. These guys are weak, scared, boring, lazy, incompetent, and complacent.
December 19th, 2025 at 11:52 am
Funny headline Joe. If my math is correct, that’s half the game.
December 19th, 2025 at 12:02 pm
@ Inwoodjeremy Says: “We criticize Todd for playing not to lose and he has been going for it a lot on 4th downs.”
Todd doesn’t have even the first clue. He’s only doing what his “specialists” are TELLING HIM. He has NO “FEEL” for the game, whatsoever.
December 19th, 2025 at 12:18 pm
I dont know how any Bucs fan could possibly want to okay this back again next year.
Someone make sure the Glazer conglomerate is getting ALL of this information NOW. Can’t have another Jon Gruden style firing where they wait until the playoffs are done and they’re still sitting on their hands.
The Bowles firing needs to be done before the strike of midnight on January 4th 2026.
December 19th, 2025 at 12:24 pm
“Can’t have another Jon Gruden style firing where they wait until the playoffs are done and they’re still sitting on their hands.”
They did this with Bowles, BA didn’t “retire/step down” until damn near April of 2022, which is ridiculously late. They weren’t the catalyst of that, but they have had to deal with it before. I think people may end up being shocked that the Glazers aren’t as knee-jerk/impulsive with their billion dollar baby, as most fans are willing to be. So prepare for anything this offseason.
I still think “A new HC and all will be corrected” is really shallow, and generalized way of looking at things from a fans perspective.
December 19th, 2025 at 12:39 pm
Remember Coen had a few years play calling experience ,,, Grizz and Canales came in without that ,, so it does take time!! That said, the Time is now!
December 19th, 2025 at 12:48 pm
It looks like Dallas is the only other team with this pattern: negative in the 1st and 4th and positive in the 2nd and 3rd. Dunno what it means, but kind of interesting.
December 19th, 2025 at 12:51 pm
My frustration with the Bowles led Bucs is, it’s the same ole issues the past 3 years. They look like contenders then they regress and have to depend on other teams to lose to get to the playoffs and also, the pass 2 years they just look like they shouldn’t be in the playoffs at all.
December 19th, 2025 at 12:54 pm
imagine falcons getting kubiak. bucs would finish last next season if they kept bowles.
December 19th, 2025 at 12:54 pm
Start deferring to receive the ball in the second half! We need to be more defensive oriented! The defense need wins early for confidence rather than starting out behind! Go Bucs
December 19th, 2025 at 12:58 pm
Guess what else it killing the bucs joe Todd bowles.
December 19th, 2025 at 12:58 pm
We can all hope the Falcons beat the Rams next week. Because maybe Raheem keep his job if they do, which would benefit us.
December 19th, 2025 at 1:13 pm
The other frustrating thing with the Bucs is, if they run Bowles off who do you go after? There are no S Peyton’s, B Arians or M Verbals. Top NFL assistants are 50/50 to be successful
December 19th, 2025 at 1:19 pm
A loss Sunday would be three in a row to all our division foes. Two in a row should’ve done it, but three strikes he should be out. Lose Sunday, why wait till Jan 4th?
December 19th, 2025 at 1:21 pm
NOT a great crop of potential HC’s out there
December 19th, 2025 at 1:39 pm
@ Oxycondomns Says: “imagine falcons getting kubiak. bucs would finish last next season if they kept bowles.”
And, that is why this upcoming offseason is the time, to completely start over with a brand new set of eyes, & overall (draft and free-agency) philosophy on roster construction, & etc. We have a complacency problem. Top to bottom. From the GM to the players. We’re lacking that EDGE. It takes a certain type of mentality to play and succeed in Tampa Bay. We need new energy! A fresh start. There are enough pieces on offense already, where a new HC (and GM) can come in and immediately succeed within THIS Division
December 19th, 2025 at 1:47 pm
@ Popmike66 Says: “The other frustrating thing with the Bucs is, if they run Bowles off who do you go after? There are no S Peyton’s, B Arians or M Verbals. Top NFL assistants are 50/50 to be successful.”
Just STOP. There are PLENTY of good young modern day minds out there right now! And, it’d be awfully tough to do much worse than what Bowles (and Lickt) have done together, over the past 4-YEARS, & in THIS Division. That’s a total loser argument, and is THE biggest reason for WHY we are where we are right now. Just more of the same old Weak. Scared. Boring. Incompetency. Complacency. This franchise is in desperate need of BOLDNESS. NOT more “Bowlesness.”
December 19th, 2025 at 1:57 pm
First of all, it is THE NFL. Just ‘ONE’ of only 32 of these jobs in the WORLD. And, this is looked at as being a consistently ‘well-run’ franchise, and is in the 11th-largest Tv-market. Plus, coming off of a recent Super Bowl VICTORY. Tampa Bay is some pretty easy living to boot! It is nothing like the meat-grinder of the northeast, with an extremely combative local media, & etc. It would be a VERY ‘attractive’ head coaching (and GM) job. Another reason for why RIGHT NOW is THE TIME.
December 19th, 2025 at 2:11 pm
I’m pretty sure it’s the head coach that’s killing the Bucs.
December 19th, 2025 at 2:20 pm
^ Head coach killing bucs
December 19th, 2025 at 2:38 pm
If you are a STRONG businessman, salesman, GM, or Owner (especially one who is very well tuned-in and connected), you can and will land YOUR MAN. 💯
December 19th, 2025 at 2:41 pm
I agree Bowles should be replaced regardless of how this season ends. But all personal, nasty name calling of him here is getting truly disgusting. So many “tough guys” here in these chats would NEVER say it to his face. Even at 62, he’s 6′-2″, about 230 (or whatever), started at safety in the NFL when safeties were the baddest men on the field, and he could still kick most of your azzes. Criticism is completely warranted and free speech forever. But do so with some respect.
December 19th, 2025 at 2:45 pm
Injuries have been hurting the Bucs offensively. That’s not an excuse and comparing the 2024 to the 2025 Bucs is reflective of what we are seeing.
Will getting back most of the offensive players for the last 3 games make a difference. I believe it can. If it happens that can impact next year’s draft selection. With fewer holes to fill. Jason Licht can continue drafting the best available players.Being able to continue this strategy will help the Bucs play deeper into the playoff and again for a Super bowl win.
December 19th, 2025 at 3:32 pm
Would be helpful to know how many points we scored in those quarters. And allowed.
Differential alone doesn’t tell us much. Did we score less in those? Did the defense give up more points in those quarters?
December 19th, 2025 at 4:06 pm
Kayla speaks the truth.
December 19th, 2025 at 4:46 pm
@ Allen Lofton – that’s a big part of the problem. HE is not drafting the best available players. HE’s drafting the best available players on HIS LIST of “choir boys.” He said it himself, & he’s completely eliminating more talented players from “HIS LIST” with maybe just a ‘slight’ issue here or there… Who maybe, a ‘youngster’ and ‘big-man’ on campus, has prob never had any REAL true leadership in his life, that has held him accountable before, & etc. And, I don’t have a lot of faith in Lickts or Bowles ‘skills’ with evaluating TALENT, to begin with. Definitely, ZERO faith when it comes to actually having to ‘develop’ it.
December 19th, 2025 at 5:50 pm
Baker is a big part of the problem. He gets so jacked up pre game, then comes out firing bad passes and gets happy when the pocket is clean. RELAX and step up in the pocket and let it rip.
December 19th, 2025 at 6:08 pm
Slow start = poor coaching
Failure to close a game = poor coaching
December 19th, 2025 at 6:41 pm
Melvin Junior I share your beliefs. Offense is a lot closer than defense. Special teams and defense needs modified. I criticize Todd a lot but I try to imagine if a new guy was there and didn’t have a DC, a new OC, had to hunt down a QB, cap restraints the process of all that mess how the outcome would be. I mean if the goal is to win the Superbowl winning the division and getting in is the first step. The NFC South is about as good as chance to capitalize on that. The way the team has played since bye week Todd has to be held accountable for that. I’m sure he’s a nice guy that loves football but it’s part of the business. We will see what happens shortly. He’s got a opportunity right now to win a SB and retire. The odds of the happening isn’t very good.
December 19th, 2025 at 7:51 pm
No, TODD IS KILLING BUCS!
December 19th, 2025 at 7:58 pm
Put $500 on Jags to win afc… 7 to 1. Coen has them playing well at the right time.
December 19th, 2025 at 8:06 pm
It is all on coaching. You cannot blame the players for everything though Bowles has convinced a lot of people in other media outlets (the Times, Pewter Report, etc) that this is true. HIs primetime record is 5 and 15 counting all night games including 1-2 in playoff games. Three of those wins were essentially because Tom Brady was on the roster in 2022 and two of those wins would have been epic fails if not for Brady magic, beating bad New Orleans and Arizona teams in the last second. Bowles may be liked by everyone at OBP and in the media but the truth is that 10 wins and maybe one playoff wins are his ceiling. The Glazers should want more and if Bowles is brought back, corporate sales will crater as will season ticket sales. Also, he will have to fire a lot of coaches such as his special teams coordinator, who will want to come and work for a lame duck coach. It will be just like 2023 when Bowles was lucky to find Canales after interviewing a dozen other guys who did not want the job. Bowles has to go. Promote him to Vice President of Stoicism or VP of Redundancy. He cannot be head coach past this season.
December 19th, 2025 at 9:23 pm
Melvin has a point about drafting “character guys”. That Pearce kid that the ATL drafted and sacked Baker twice was off of Jason’s list, although other teams black-listed him too. Also, you can bet Jason would not have drafted Warren Sapp. This all goes back to Jason’s early years as GM when he chose Jameis #1 and signed cancers like Swaggy Baker and DeSean Jackson. Those were busts so he overcompensated for going after choir boys. Now he has to re-evaluate his formula, we criticize Bowles for being stubborn but Jason gets a pass. Why?
December 19th, 2025 at 9:47 pm
Kayla is indeed correct and so is FM Dave
Bud Licht gotta go too.
December 19th, 2025 at 11:58 pm
Sure would be nice for the post to include what the Bucs are in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. As it is, all we know is the Bucs average -5 points, combining the first and last quarters.
December 20th, 2025 at 7:02 am
2nd and 3rd quarters not so great lately either.
December 20th, 2025 at 4:45 pm
1st – 47 scored / allowed – 79
2nd – 116 scored / allowed – 101
3rd – 95 scored / allowed – 68
4th – 69 scored / allowed 106
December 20th, 2025 at 6:31 pm
So it appears the offense had its worst output in the 1st quarter and the 4th quarters (by a long shot). Defense has actually played well in 1st quarter but not the 4th.
Data seems to indicate the offense has had A LOT (I’d say equal to or more so than the defense) to do with the differential this article is based on.