Third-Down Conversions Have Plummeted Without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin And Bucky Irving
November 9th, 2025
Third down woes.
Back when the Bucs beat the Seahawks on the road a month ago, racking up 38 points in a 38-35 win, the Bucs had a tremendous third-down offense.
But in that same game, Chris Godwin got hurt. Again. He hasn’t played since. Two weeks later, Mike Evans returned but had his clavicle broken and he’s out until at least December
Just like last year when both Evans and Godwin were hurt, the Bucs’ passing offense went into the tank. And it’s happened again.
Despite the Bucs scoring a bunch of points in a 30-19 win at home over the 49ers, the Bucs’ third-down offense has been terrible. Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis has the details of just how bad the Bucs’ third-down conversion rate has fallen off a cliff without both Evans and Godwin.
Tampa Bay has converted 27% (10 of 37) of third downs over its past three games (30th in the league), down from a 41.5% rate prior (11th).
Again, last year the Bucs only had to survive three games without Evans and Godwin — and lost all three. This year, Godwin may not be back for weeks and Evans may not be back until the playoffs. Maybe.
Yes, Joe knows the Bucs have Emeka Egbuka, unlike last year. Still, Joe is not comfortable banking on a rookie to lead the passing offense.
Offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard said he needs to find a way to get Egbuka the ball more, even if he is double-teamed, which he is.
An NFL South title may be on the line if Grizzard can’t.
November 9th, 2025 at 12:41 am
“Last week Bucs offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard said he needs to find a way to get Egbuka the ball more, even if he is double-teamed, which he is”
Maybe this is too much, too fast for Grizz. Yes, let’s force feed Egbuka. Let’s run some jet sweeps with him, and get Baker to throw to him while double covered cause of it ain’t a low percentage throw, then ya ain’t tryna hard enough(?). What’s up with this guy?
November 9th, 2025 at 1:05 am
Do you not want your star receiver to be more involved in the offense. His statement basically boils down to “I have to scheme him open more”, which he does need to do
November 9th, 2025 at 2:03 am
The biggest factor with Egbuka will be how well that hammy feels after a week of rest. I mean – God bless him for playing hurt – but in the last 2 games, Emeka was not the same player at all that we saw the first 5-6 games.
I’m positive the hamstring injury that he played through was the reason EE looked so mortal the last 2 games.
Double teamed or not – if Egbuka is once again healthy – he will find the open area and make some eye popping plays. Get used to it – this young receiver is already a star – playing at a level in his very first few games that most NFL WRs could only dream of…… drawing legit comparisons to Jefferson and Chase right out the gate…..
November 9th, 2025 at 2:42 am
Ugo nailed it.
November 9th, 2025 at 5:02 am
Double Buka. Then what do we have that scares anyone? We got some Tight ends we are not throwing to. We got some guys who came through for us last year not getting snaps. Culp, Durham, and my man Miller. We got White out of the Backfield that we suddenly have forgotteen about. No not just screens. Shepard needs to step up a bit more.
Grizz mad at these dudes?
Go Bucs!
November 9th, 2025 at 5:58 am
We are definitely missing Mike, Bucky, and Chris. Big change from last season. Not all on Grizz, however he needs some creativity while using other players too. No fancy plays like the last year’s coordinator tried. They ended up being horrific.
November 9th, 2025 at 6:48 am
With Goedonkey back, our 3rd down conversion rate will improve. More tight end routes. More RB freedom.
GO BUCS!!
November 9th, 2025 at 7:19 am
These guys are available after nov 16 Grey Cup
Top 2025 CFL Receivers
Keon Hatcher (B.C. Lions): Led all receivers with an 85.5 PFF grade and had the most explosive receptions, gaining 77 first downs.
Kenny Lawler (Hamilton Tiger-Cats): Had the highest average depth of target and ranked third in yards per route run. He also made a league-high 19 contested catches.
Nic Demski (Winnipeg Blue Bombers): Had the third-highest PFF receiving grade and one of the highest yards-per-route-run averages in the league.
Justin McInnis (B.C. Lions): Named to the Second Team All-CFL and ranked among the league’s highest-paid receivers.
Damonte Coxie (Saskatchewan Roughriders): Ranked second in the league with an 80.1 PFF receiving grade.
KeeSean Johnson (Saskatchewan Roughriders): Ranked second in the league with an 80.1 PFF receiving grade and ranked second in yards per route run.
Tyler Snead (Montreal Alouettes): Had a 75.9 PFF grade and dropped just one pass on 115 targets.
Tim White (Hamilton Tiger-Cats): A former All-CFL receiver expected to have another season of over 1,000 yards.
Eugene Lewis (Ottawa Redblacks): Another high-ranking player, appearing on the list of highest-paid receivers.
November 9th, 2025 at 7:23 am
We’re missing the Godwin of old, not this years Godwin. Look at his numbers this year when he has played. Not exactly the stuff of legend. If we’re being honest, Evans isn’t the same either. Father time is undefeated. Now we do miss Buckys juice, and we’re really missing JMac. Evans, Godwin, they’re both done, sorry to say it.
November 9th, 2025 at 7:47 am
Didnt Grizzard used to be the 3rd down specialist last year?
November 9th, 2025 at 8:12 am
Sure would like to see Otten and White getting more targets. Did we forget how much they both contributed last year?? EE will be drawing double coverage. We will have better pass pro this game, so call some plays for these two. Come on Grizz!!
November 9th, 2025 at 8:27 am
Ill say it once again, seeing Evans, Godwin, Ebuka, and McMillan line up 4 wide with Bucky in the backfield would have been a sight to see, and made us almost unstoppable on offense if they were all healthy and balling out…que Biggie…”It was all a dream…
November 9th, 2025 at 8:36 am
Wait.. losing your three best offensive weapons, one who’s a HOFer affects your offense?
No way.
November 9th, 2025 at 8:57 am
Kidfloflo – Thinking ahead, it could be just that in December. It can happen!
November 9th, 2025 at 9:23 am
With a weak RG and RT, and Bucky out, the run game has declined. The poor early down performance has created more 3rd and longs. Throw early to set up the run and go back to Coen’s short passing game.
November 9th, 2025 at 10:07 am
Y’all are missing the point, we’ve BEEN trying to get Egbuka the ball, to the tune of 25 targets in the last 3 games before the bye. My gripe with this statement isn’t anything about Egbukas ability, but 25 targets for 9 receptions for 117 yards and no scores means the doubles are working. Captain Obvious, says he wants to keep that up and cross his fingers when Christian Rodriguez will likely line up with EE2 today. You want to press THAT(!?) issue, cool but doesn’t sound wise.
November 9th, 2025 at 10:49 am
I think Grizz is still working with the mind-set that he just has to win this down, which was fine when he was the third down coord. As OC, he need a bigger picture approach to game. For instance, when I watch his play calling throughout a game he doesn’t seem to use plays earlier in a game to set something up later in the game. Each play is a unique one-off and doesn’t seem to contribute to whole, like maybe try passing to the opposite side of the field than what Otton is motioning to, instead of running behind Otton; roll Baker out of the pocket and give him an option; more 2 back sets with play action screens. Grizz is starting to give Lefty vibes after that goaline debacle last week
November 9th, 2025 at 11:25 am
The Griz might have said, “gotta be more creative with two back sets, getting the TEs schemed up and getting the little speedsters the ball in space.”
Griz is Byron Leftwich II.
November 9th, 2025 at 11:26 am
100% agree ChiBuc, that lends to the lack of rhythm and creativity some of us have been griping about regarding the offensive play calling.
November 9th, 2025 at 11:54 am
@Pickgrin – agreed about EE, especially in the Detroit game. He did seem healthier vs New Orleans imo.
Let’s not forget, Baker also missed him being wide open multiple times in both games too.
November 9th, 2025 at 12:06 pm
The problem with throwing the ball to Egbuka over ten times a game isheis bound to get hurt( remember his hammie?)
If he does go down through overuse than What?
Force-feeding Egbuka a bunch is not that answer, getting others involved is.
The problem is sending Kraft out on routes is when he goes down field he can’t pass protect and until we get at least one starter back on the O-line having Kraft running routes is hazardous to Mayfield’s health
November 9th, 2025 at 1:30 pm
Been waiting for Evans to have a break out season of 1500 plus yards and 10 plus tds since Brady arrived in town, but it wasn’t to be. At least he had his 1000 yard seasons but now that is gone. He’s still behind Julio Jones. Tyreek Hill snd Devsnte Adam’s have more accolades. And bunch of big time younger receivers on pace to surpass his stats. Unfortunately, I hate to break it to you all. Unless he gets at least TWO more 1000 yard season, he ain’t getting in the HOF.
November 9th, 2025 at 4:07 pm
Without Mike, Chris and Bucky it’s been crippling for the Bucs to score at the goal line. There injuries are jarperdizing the Bucs going deep in the playoffs.
If the Bucs don’t lose anymore key players entering the playoff and get back Mike, Chris and Bucky they have a decent chance of competing for the Super Bowl 🏈.