Here Comes The Blitz
October 28th, 2025
Copycat league.
Baker Mayfield hasn’t had a good past couple of games after looking like an MVP for the first six games.
Hey, against Detroit, no real shame in that. The Lions are a damn good team, even though they were riddled with injuries and suspensions in the secondary.
Sunday in New Orleans, there was no such excuse facing the slimy Saints, maybe the worst team in the league. So why did Mayfield struggle? NextGen Stats may offer a clue, notes Kevin Patra of NFL.com.
Baker Mayfield faced his highest blitz rate of the season (48.1%), completing just 4 of 11 passes for 12 yards against the blitz … (while taking two sacks). However, against four pass rushers or fewer, Mayfield completed 11 of 13 passes for 140 yards.
You may have heard this, but the NFL is a copycat league. If Mayfield struggled with the blitz, you can damn well better guarantee that Mike Vrabel and the Patriots will be bringing the house after Mayfield a week from Sunday when the Bucs return from the bye.
Bucs offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard better come up with some schemes to battle the blitz.
October 28th, 2025 at 7:10 am
Our head coach (?) needs to work with his offensive coordinator to fix that mess.
October 28th, 2025 at 7:29 am
Still convinced that Baker was hurt Joe. He’s played 42 games for us, and hasn’t rushed even once in only 3 games. Two of those games were these last 2 games (and he was sacked 7 times). The other game was last season’s loss to Denver; he had 0 runs and he was sacked SEVEN times in that game.
Baker got beaten up in that loss to Denver last year, and most likely got beaten up in the loss to Detroit this year also. Our OLine didn’t hold up in both instances, and Baker paid the price.
It took us awhile to fix our OLine last season (we lost 5 of the next 7 games after that Denver loss), but we ended the season strong, winning 6 of the following 7 games. HOPEFULLY we get Goedeke back fairly soon & settle on a solid replacement for Mauch.
October 28th, 2025 at 7:31 am
“You may have heard this, but the NFL is a copycat league. If Mayfield struggled with the blitz, you can damn well better guarantee that Mike Vrabel and the Patriots will be bringing the house after Mayfield a week from Sunday when the Bucs return from the bye.”
Ex-Ravens DC Wink Martindale put this blueprint out years ago.
October 28th, 2025 at 7:37 am
@ DR,
I have zero doubt that Baker IS injured, and clearly it’s badly affecting his mobility.
Hopefully, a week off during the bye week helps him get over it.
October 28th, 2025 at 7:37 am
I agree that he may be hurt. Seems to fear the rush more than earlier in the season. I also don’t care whether they tell us or not. I do care that the coaches, and Baker, find a way to mitigate it.
But if he is hurt, what is the injury? Maybe ribs, maybe shoulder, maybe his hand. The ball is not as accurate as it has been so something appears to be affecting his throwing and perhaps getting hit is more painful in October than it was in September.
October 28th, 2025 at 7:54 am
Two factors:
Baker is hurt both his knee and Oblique. He was just trying to get through the game with a win and couldn’t do much to escape the blitz. Hence the run heavy offense.
Teams are playing a lot more man coverage against the Bucs.
Think you will see a different gameplan against NE. And hopefully they get two guys back on the O line.
October 28th, 2025 at 7:55 am
Google “torn oblique”
October 28th, 2025 at 8:06 am
“Bucs offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard better come up with some schemes to battle the blitz.”
I’ve got a suggestion for Gruzz. Punt on first down. They’ll never expect it.
October 28th, 2025 at 8:11 am
Sadly, the Bucs don’t have the coaching to counter blitz heavy defensive schemes. Bucs finish 10-7 and get destroyed in the first round of the playoffs. Bucs don’t have the coaching horsepower to do any better than that.
October 28th, 2025 at 8:14 am
Warren Brooks Lynch, did Martindale explain why he would blitz heavy like that against a QB who statistically has been the best against the blitz of any QB in the league? Maybe when he’s suffering an oblique and knee injury or maybe because the offensive line hasn’t been holding for 2.2 seconds may have something to do with it. As far as dealing with the blitz Mayfield is as good as any QB I’ve seen. Now he’s leading a Tampa team, in his 3rd year here, that has as good a record through 8 games as any QB and team in franchise history. But it’s in some folks nature to kick a dog when he’s down. Get your fill of it now WBL. Because it’s not gonna last.
October 28th, 2025 at 8:15 am
You would think that practicing against a Todd Bowles blitz-happy defense would prepare him for games like last Sunday. I hope that Bowles will focus on blitzes during preparations for the Patriots game.
October 28th, 2025 at 8:23 am
Read somewhere that Baker has an oblique injury. That type of injury would certainly explain his recent inaccuracy issues. Oblique injuries seem to be a thing for alot of guys around the league this year.
October 28th, 2025 at 8:28 am
“Warren Brooks Lynch, did Martindale explain why he would blitz heavy like that against a QB who statistically has been the best against the blitz of any QB in the league?”
It’s simulated pressure to fool Baker or any QBs eyes, it’s something our defense has done this season. Not rocket science Kenton. Pre snap if you can show pressure in say the A-gap with both ILBs, to make it appear as if that’s where the pressure is coming from, and the QB alters his protection, you can fake him out by dropping those same LBs in the space the QB thinks it’s coming from while bringing the pressure from elsewhere. Sort of like how Bowles uses the weakside overloads to send the nickel.
It’s all eye candy that doubles as bait. Read the link sir, I can assure you I’m not talking out of my rear-end.
October 28th, 2025 at 8:33 am
Oh, sorry WBL. Martindale is on the hottest of seats right now at Michigan. The fans want him fired yesterday. To infer that Martindale provided a template to stop Mayfield is garbage.
October 28th, 2025 at 8:49 am
Aqualung … ‘Our head coach (?) needs to work with his offensive coordinator to fix that mess.’
I’m thinking it’s more of a personnel problem right now than it is anything else. You’ve gotta have the horses.
In these last 2 games Wirfs (LT), Bredeson (LG), Barton (C) & Heck (RT) all played 100% of the offensive snaps. Jordan was our RG in the Detroit game, and Feeney was our RG in the New Orleans game. That was the only difference.
I admittedly have no idea how well each OLineman played in each of those 2 games. What I do know though is that Baker was sacked 4 times in the Lions game & 3 times in the Saints game. And on all of those it didn’t appear to me like Baker was trying to run out of it. Matter of fact, he didn’t run at all in either game.
The week prior to the Saints game, Baker was Limited in Weds practice, had a Full go on Thurs, and was again Limited on Fri.
October 28th, 2025 at 8:50 am
Kenton
Martindales’ tenure as Ravens DC and figuring out how to trick Mayfields’ eyes with simulated blitz pressure back then, has eff all to do with what Martindale is doing in Michigan in 2025. We’re not talking about college ball, we’re talking about Mayfield against the blitz and me pointing out there’s been a tact used by a pro DC that was playing against Mayfield twice a year.
Nobody is kicking anybody, trends in the NFL are a thing and like Joe said, you’d be dumb as a box of rocks to not think Vrabel won’t be cooking up his own simulated pressure to provoke the same results. Whether it be a low pct throw, a sack, an incompletion or turnover. Obviously Baker can beat it, but that’s dependent on how he responds to the pressure any competent football fan knows will be coming.
October 28th, 2025 at 8:54 am
Defense Rules Says:
October 28th, 2025 at 7:29 am
“Still convinced that Baker was hurt Joe. ”
I mentioned this last week, so I agree. I know he injured his throwing hand. It probably isn’t serious, but it was likely still sore. That affected his release and his accuracy. The week off to rest it should solve that problem.
As to any other injuries, I’m thinking maybe some sort of bruise or minor sprain? Or maybe he just doesn’t want to take risks with him having a sore hand?
I wish we had our entire OL, including Cody and Luke. The piecemail OL just isn’t getting it done well enough. Baker is getting hit a lot, and the run game is suffering.
No one on the team is at fault. I’m sure everyone is doing their best. The circumstances are just difficult.
October 28th, 2025 at 8:58 am
Defense Rule, I always seem to agree with you on so much!
October 28th, 2025 at 9:00 am
Connor Bazelak was elevated from the practice squad for a reason. Fortunately Baker made it through the game intact and will get time to heal.
Food for thought – Patriots only beat Saints by 6. They are not invincible by any means. It’s a home game for us.
October 28th, 2025 at 9:00 am
I see Jeff is intent on continuing his streak of being wrong about the Bucs and looking like a complete moron while doing it
October 28th, 2025 at 9:23 am
I really feel the bye week is coming at the best possible time for this team. With Mike out for the rest of the season it’s a chance to tweak the passing attack to better suit the receiver options we have. No one on the roster can do Mike things, so maybe we run more crossers and feet deep routes. Maybe more screens and passes too tight ends. Teams are doubling EE now that Mike is gone, that is the biggest change the last two weeks. The gamelan needs to lean on getting the other guys going to force teams out of doubling EE.
October 28th, 2025 at 9:28 am
blitz have been getting to baker because our oline is consist of back-ups and back-ups to back-ups lol….
the staff may have to juggle the oline again…
run game seemed better when bredenson was at C…might want to see try Barton at RG with michael jordan at LG…Heck has been playing pretty well imo
6-2!!!
GO BUCS!!!!
October 28th, 2025 at 9:42 am
no need to worry…
the detroit game was going to be a loss…in my preseason prediction i had the game actually getting a bit out of hand, like a 38-20 potential blow out type affair…but it wasn’t…it was just a bad loss…
and this past weekend, i’m gonna go out on a limb and say the overall team attitude was just get in and out of there with a win – don’t over exert yourselves, if you don’t have too, and most important – no injuries or re-aggravate injuries any worse…
they did just that…and it should have really been 30-0 anyway…
it’s pretty clear the saints are in an early season tank-athon vs the ny jets……for one archibald manning
October 28th, 2025 at 9:48 am
and i had the pats game as a trap game…
well, it’s not trap game…they’re freakin 6-2…
but they’re probably more like a 4-4 team with a bit of an inflated record…
like they’re the worst 6-2 team in the league…
but vrabel is darn good, and certainly has them believing…
if we come sleepwalking out of the tunnel in a couple weeks vs the pats, we could be in some trouble…
and we all know our bucs deliver a clunker every now and then…
they’ve gotta be ready for drake maye and these patriots…
and then split the next tough 2 games on the road after that…
then the schedule nose dives a bit…
yeah i’m thinking ahead – but why not…we can do that
October 28th, 2025 at 9:55 am
buc4evr … ‘Teams are playing a lot more man coverage against the Bucs. Think you will see a different gameplan against NE.’
I agree, but it’s a lot easier to play man coverage against most rookie receivers than it is to play it against Evans or Godwin. It’s looked like Egbuka has been doubled-up quite often, but most of the rest are just getting single coverage it seems. It’s all about RESPECT like Aretha Franklin let us know. Gotta be earned.
And ya, Grizz has no option but to create a ‘different gameplan’ than what we’ve seen in these last 2 games. Patriots have the #8 offense & the #4 defense; Bucs have the #14 offense & the #16 defense. Yet we both have the same 6-2 record.
Problem for our offense is that Pats’ defense is very good at stopping the run (#2 ranking). Still they’re only average (#19) against the pass, so Grizz needs to figure out how to leverage that. If it was me, I’d be using my TEs more in the short passing game, and try to use Egbuka & Tez to spread ’em out more. I really want to see Culp more in the passing game. He’s healthy; use him.
Problem for our defense is that the Patriots love to run the ball, and they’re decent but not spectacular at it. Our issue is that we haven’t been as good this year at stopping the run as we’ve been in years past. We’re not terrible by any means (#7), but it seems that when we focus on stopping the run, our pass coverage becomes meh.
In any event, I’m convinced that we can beat them IF we play a complete game on the offensive AND defensive sides of the ball (as well as S/Ts obviously), and IF we can get somewhat healthier in these next 2 weeks.
October 28th, 2025 at 10:12 am
interestingly enough…
i could be wrong here because i’m not going to the stats…
but off hand, it seems like no other tight ends at all have even caught a ball this year…
could that be f’in true…geez…?
has even one passing play been run for durham, culp or keift…?
we are halfway thru the season…and grizzwald does not use our TE room at all
October 28th, 2025 at 10:34 am
@Adam
The fact we’re as bad in the redzone as we’ve been and we’ll run a corner fade to Sterling Shepard before putting that effort to getting somebody as big as Payne Durham in that same position has been borderline criminal in my opinion.
Durham has been targeted once through 8 games.
October 28th, 2025 at 10:41 am
They have to watch film when Patriots blitzed and run some more slants and west coast crossings routes into the areas where the linebackers are blitzing. They need to pick up a veteran RB that can get tougher yards. White has reverted back to his hesitation stop and start style we saw in his first two seasons and is getting killed at the line of scrimmage.
We also need to pick up a veteran receiver with a bigger body as Ebuka and Johnson are young and not fully matured size wise. The Eagles have been very successful running slants to speedy Smith who is similar size to Johnson.
Grizzard needs to pull out the Coan playbook with quicker passes. Baker is having to drop back deeper and protecting is collayand he is getting creamed. Speed it up so the ball is coming out quicker and get a couple of more physical players via trade.
The Bucs have to get used to playing va physical defenses, that’s what playoff football is about. They need some more horses while these guys hobbling around get healthy.
October 28th, 2025 at 10:43 am
There are ways to beat the blitz if you prepare for it. We will see the blitz every game until the Bucs start consistently beating it and making teams stop. Everyone has to be on the same page especially the receivers and running backs. The receivers have to know the hot routes when they see a blitz. Last Sunday the crew calling the game mentioned after one blitz that Ebuka didn’t adjust and run a hot route. I would imagine the last thing you learn is adjusting your routes to what the defense is giving you. With several young receivers they need to work on that until we can consistently beating the blitz.
October 28th, 2025 at 10:44 am
@Warren:
yeah for sure…when i was posting above about the tight ends…i was mainly thinking about durham…as we all know culp is MIA for whatever reason…
durham is a big dude with good hands…criminal is the word indeed…
he should have a minimum of 20 -25 catches this year after a full 17 game schedule…
grizz needs to get loosie goosie with that playbook asap…
after the bye just might be the right time to unleash the TE room on the league, with our receiver room looking like a mash unit
October 28th, 2025 at 10:50 am
i’m not so sure the eggman is the guy we think he is…or the league pundits have anointed him to this point…
i’m not 100% sold on emeka……just yet…
we will know more of who he is after the next 3 games…
sure i like him, and he is the future here at wr…but i also do believe the league was sleeping on the young fellah a bit up until now…
but God damn…how well spoken is he…omg!…
i heard him on the radio yesterday with casey…mentally he’s 20 going on 40…his mindset is beyond
October 28th, 2025 at 10:57 am
There is a very simple answer here.. Baker is hurt which is effecting his throwing accuracy and his ability to avoid the rush..
Tampa always seems to have key injuries that prevent the team from competing against top Teams. The O-Line is not getting the job done, Evans is out, Godwin is out, Ebuka is limited, Irving is out..
Next man up only works when you have competent replacement talent.. Mayfied is literally the last man standing on a patchwork offense and if that O-Line remains ineffective, Mayfield may not be standing much longer..
Hey Grizzard, time to do your job and develop a scheme that gets receivers open faster since the O-Line can’t protect and a run game that can at least keep the defense honest.. Hey Licht, how about going to the FA market and find some players that can help your team..
October 28th, 2025 at 11:00 am
it’s almost like grizz thinks the offense is so “bucky-centric”, that he is just waiting on his return…
dude needs to diversify his freakin portfolio…and fast !! 🙂
October 28th, 2025 at 11:05 am
Since Mayfield arrived in Tampa Bay he’s been highly evaluated against the blitz by both film analysis, stats, and the eye test.
If the Blitz is getting home this is offensive unit concern, as a whole, and one a recently injured QB who is not scrambling cannot mitigate.
On film, Mayfield mitigated the healthy over-inflated and evaluted oline under Coen and this continued through the oline injuries this season, until Detroit, where the knee injury required the QB to have a real pocket.
Compounding that, Line protections and blitz pickups are going to be less reliable when the oline group has no continuiity and is playing rotating right guards.
October 28th, 2025 at 11:24 am
Besides Baker’s possible injury, we have inexperienced receivers. To be effective against the blitz, your receivers need to recognize it’s a blitz and understand what needs to change in their routes. He’s throwing to his 4th, 5th and 6th receiver of which two are rookies.
October 28th, 2025 at 11:33 am
Too bad we don’t have a good backup QB to allow Baker to properly heal. Bridgewater ain’t it.
October 28th, 2025 at 11:36 am
@Jack burton,,it sure sounds like care weather they tell us or not and being a fan you should want to know what Baker’s injury is
October 28th, 2025 at 12:32 pm
Vrabel is a good coach and will blitz as he sees fit. He’s smart enough to see Baker completed 72 percent of his passes with like 15 TDs and 2 picks last year. He may want to test Baker’s health and our OLines and running backs awareness with some stunting but our guys have seen all kinds of disguised blitz packages. Barton calling the line with a new right guard every week. We haven’t had the same OLine one game this season. Wirfs jumped the count last week because he was trying to get a jump on Chase Young. Wirfs is outstanding but Young provided as good a matchup on Wirfs as anyone I’ve seen. Wirfs still is the best player on the team. Just some minor dings to the QB and a bit more continuity across our line. I’m positive that Griz and Baker and Wirfs and Bredeson and Barton are just the guys to fix it. As we get a few guys back no reason to think we can’t run the table after the bye. If anybody can do it we can do it.
October 28th, 2025 at 12:34 pm
Beating the blitz is not just about Baker. In these past two games it is equally on WRs to be in the right places from reading it as well. We will be fine.
October 28th, 2025 at 12:34 pm
72 percent completion rate with 15 tds and 2 picks. Those figures are against the blitz last year.
October 28th, 2025 at 12:38 pm
The RG situation doesn’t help, but Barton is another wasted first round pick from an otherwise very good GM. Hainsey is having a better season with the Jags.
October 28th, 2025 at 12:43 pm
And WBL, agree wholeheartedly that fade to Shep was a head scratcher and he tried again to Egbuka who was double covered. Admittedly that was some ugly, dumb football. Lucky, both of those were picks waiting to happen. The bye came at a good time. Griz and Bake didn’t all of a sudden start sucking. They just have to get acclimated to the young guys and getting them all on the same page.
October 28th, 2025 at 12:48 pm
You’re not injured if you play. No excuses. Baker needs to make better reads and not overthrow open WRs. I’m sure he’ll get it fixed.
October 28th, 2025 at 1:24 pm
The tenor of he last two weeks changes if ME13 who was mugged on a long Mayfield pass that was perfectly thrown is ruled PI or if ME13 was able to hang on. Pretty clear that Baker was under intense pressure in both DET and NO games. Equally clear that he was banged up in both games. Maybe the fact that 40% of his offense line is hurt and that Wirfs had his worst game in a All Pro career had a lot to do with it?
October 28th, 2025 at 2:20 pm
Here we go again … Why is this being blamed on the QB? The story should be about how the offensive linemen, tight ends and running backs are not very good at picking up the blitz. At least show some sprt of stat about time to throw.
October 28th, 2025 at 2:35 pm
Baker is good against the blitz when healthy.
Lets hope the time off does him a world of good.
October 28th, 2025 at 2:44 pm
DR, think that the Bucs needs better play calling with respect to the run. WRs need to be involved in the run game – reverses, options, whatever. Bucs can’t continually try to run off tackle or between the center and guard.
Baker was only getting 2.2 seconds to throw. He needs 2.86 for the routes to develop. Either the Bucs need to protect him better he needs to do bootlegs and rollout more. Otton needs to be primarily a receiver for the next three games.
As far as Drake May, that guy is unstoppable going deep and even running. He seems to run a lot from watching highlights? They look better than the Bills from what I have seen. Not sure how our defense is going to stack up, but Diggs, Boutte, and Henry are going to be hard to stop. And at the same time The defense needs to keep Maye from running.
October 28th, 2025 at 2:46 pm
the saints had everyone in the box, they are not scared of the smurfs and they made an easy down and out or slant really difficult
October 28th, 2025 at 4:56 pm
Baker needs to be a lot more accurate, that would go a long ways towards negating the blitz. It’s not like he’s had guys open, he’s just been flat out missing them these last two games. If he is hurt, hopefully this bye week gets him back into shape.
But also Wiz Kid needs to do a much better job calling plays. The lack of creativity, the lack of motion, the lack of plays to negate the pass rush (like screens) is alarming – it’s OC-101 level stuff. I’ve given the man from Lot Lizard a lot of slack due to injuries and having to change things on the fly, but there’s no reason to be completely predictable and telegraph what you’re doing to do. Said it the last few games, but he needs to go back and rewatch the tape of what Coen was doing, because that was working, what Wiz Kid is doing now, is not working.
October 28th, 2025 at 6:38 pm
Yes, personnel factors into it, DR. Defenses have found out we can’t pick up a middle blitz, so essentially the same personnel that hung 38 on Seattle an 30 on SF are now chin deep in quicksand. Got to get ahead of the curve, last two weeks won’t get it done. Hope after Todd demanded more running plays, he’ll now demand better offensive production and be part of the solution that fixes it.
Would be tragic to waste the defensive momentum.
October 28th, 2025 at 9:54 pm
Handing Vita Vea the rock on the one yard line is predictable. But also effective. Now why didn’t we run that against the Saints ?? Who is going to stop Vita ?? Did Grizz forget about that play ?? They know it’s coming but they can’t stop it.
Go Bucs !!
October 29th, 2025 at 6:39 am
Maybe we are in the “slump” like ’23 and ’24, but instead we are winning the games.
October 29th, 2025 at 6:50 am
You take what the defense gives you. Blitzing means,short passes and yards after catch.
October 29th, 2025 at 6:52 am
Its,a team game. Baker bailed out the defense,and special teams now they are returning the favor.
October 29th, 2025 at 10:02 am
wakeup call for Grizz – just because Saints don’t usually blitz you have to prepare a plan for it. should have been a quick and early adjustment, we’re fine operating out of bigger packages. anybody know if Tucker got burned on any?
October 29th, 2025 at 10:03 am
might even be more specific – overload blitzes on one side. need to rewatch though.
October 29th, 2025 at 11:06 pm
After reading a number of criticisms of Mayfield’s game against the Saints, I played back every play of the game. I think he played quite well under the circumstances, which included numerous breakdowns in the offensive line especially in the first half and an obvious decision by Grizzard to run the ball even when it made no sense. Mayfield only threw nine passes in the first half and most of those were under heavy pressure. In the third quarter when they still needed a score to control the game, Mayfield led them on a long drive for a touchdown that put them up 14-3. With the way the defense was dominating, there was no need at that point for the Bucs to do anything but run the ball and kill the clock. Mayfield made a number of great passes in the one offensive TD and at other times to get first downs leading to field goals. It seems like people focus on TD passes and interceptions too much in evaluating QB performance. Mayfield did enough to get the win so in my mind he had a good game, period.