Not Much Success In Rushing Success
September 11th, 2025
Good news/bad news.
There’s bad news and good news here. But as Gregory Peck once said in the movie “MacArthur,” good news can wait. Bad news can’t.
So Joe will start with the bad news. The Bucs’ run game stunk at Atlanta to begin the season. Just looking at Bucky Irving’s stats, you don’t have to be a trigonometry major to figure that out.
According to the advanced NFL stats Twitter feed of @DougAnalytics, the success rate of Bucs running plays was largely unsuccessful. The Bucs had the seventh-worst success rate on runs in the league on Week 1.
A successful play in advanced stats is when an offense gets 50 percent of yards needed to convert on first down, 70 percent on second down and 100 percent on third or fourth downs.
So the Bucs struggled, running at a 31.6 success rate on running plays. Joe guesses a rearranged offensive line with two weeks to practice together was a factor.
Now the good news: The Bucs had better success with the run than the Dixie Chicks did with a healthy Bijan Robinson. That’s a very good thing. Atlanta had success on its running plays 29.2 percent of the time.
So while the Bucs’ running attack seemed stuck in park, their run defense seemed to be in midseason form.
And now Vita Vea may just be going up against a backup center on Monday night. That will be fun!
Offensive Rushing Success Rates
• Broken down by run concepts
• % within bars is the success rate of that run concept pic.twitter.com/nI1kPkyvfL— Doug Analytics (@Doug_Analytics) September 10, 2025
September 11th, 2025 at 12:34 am
I think poor/ predictable playcalling and poorly-timed running plays were the main reasons due our poor running game.
Last year, we threw on 1st downs a majority of the time and that setup our run game very nicely.
September 11th, 2025 at 12:35 am
*for not due
September 11th, 2025 at 12:44 am
The other ‘good’ news is that Houston was even worse, for what it’s worth.
September 11th, 2025 at 12:53 am
Looked alot like Leftnut/Canales run game to me. Tacklers in the backfield way too quickly.
Gotta give the O line a pass however. Last minute musical chairs did them no favors. Play calls?
Go Bucs!
September 11th, 2025 at 1:27 am
I agree with Erik on passing to set up the run. Coen attempted short yardage throws on early downs, letting WR/RBs get YAC. It was more unpredictable. I like what the Chargers did coming out throwing against KC, something no one expected them to do and it worked. It is still only game 1 for Grizz’.
September 11th, 2025 at 3:14 am
Not bashing Baker, he was hindered by not getting snaps before the game by Bowles, but if he’s more on target, in particular earlier in the game, it probably helps open up the running game more. Then again, the run game wasn’t nearly as creative as it was last year with Coen – meanwhile watching the Jags game, that looked like the Coen we saw last year, and the Jags had 200 yards rushing at 6.8ypc.
Wiz kid needs to just watch that Jags game for the play calling, maybe remember what was working last year, and along with the improved play we’ll see from Baker, that should fix things.
September 11th, 2025 at 3:39 am
OR Buc Says:
September 11th, 2025 at 1:27 am
I agree with Erik on passing to set up the run. Coen attempted short yardage throws on early downs, letting WR/RBs get YAC. It was more unpredictable.
———-
Correct, Coen did a fantastic job of simply mixing things up AND being very creative in the run game, with a ton of motion by the offensive line, after the ball was snapped, that really seemed to confuse defenses. Also, don’t forget on 3rd downs, he’d have Bucky and White out there, and would run quite a bit on 3rd down and short, again, keeping defenses off balance, and getting great production.
This offense is supposed to be the same offense, meaning all we’re doing is seeing the plays called in a different order, and that should be pretty easy to fix, all they need to do is look at what the Bucs called in various scenarios and then start comparing it to the Wiz Kid’s play calling, and that will tell the story of what is happening – if it’s just the reshuffled offensive line or Gizz being too predictable. In any case, I’d just replace the OC with AI and let it copy Coen from last year, it could do a better job than any human in replicating that.
September 11th, 2025 at 3:42 am
Moving that offensive line around had to have an impact on the running game. This offensive line is way better with Barton at center.
September 11th, 2025 at 5:39 am
So you are saying that Vita Vea will actually take over a game ala Warren Sapp?
September 11th, 2025 at 6:44 am
if I remember correctly, it took some adjustments to get the run game going well in the first few games of 2024 as well. coen switched from zone to gap scheme and it took off. rookie coordinator, give him a few weeks to find a groove. also, luckily, passing has the edge in the epa stats overall, hence the general shift to passing in the league.
if baker and the boys in the receiving room can get in sync early on this week, bucky and the run game will have the time necessary to follow suit.
September 11th, 2025 at 7:24 am
White had a couple of good runs. Need to use him more so Bucky isn’t worn out by the end of the season.
September 11th, 2025 at 7:33 am
jags were crushing the run game, go back to the exact plays they had success with last year
September 11th, 2025 at 9:12 am
Need more passing to RBs & TEs….especially on 1st downs
September 11th, 2025 at 9:29 am
Does it really matters? 5 Of the first 6 teams in that graphic lost
September 11th, 2025 at 10:02 am
You will be hard-pressed to find any NFL coach who has a goal of not running the ball. Am also confident you will not find any coach who is celebrating that they couldn’t run the ball.
Yes, those teams won. It is not a recipe for future success.
When the Bucs couldn’t do anything right and had the first pick in the draft, they won games that season, too.
Joe is very confident a team like the Bucs who have legit playoff aspirations are not content in any way with being unable to run the ball in Atlanta.
September 11th, 2025 at 10:40 am
If we had a real full time head coach, he would emphasize fixing it, get with the offensive coordinator and run game coaches, identify root causes for the failures and devise and implement remedies.
Judging by how the defense gags at the end of games just the same as it has in years past, that won’t happen.
September 11th, 2025 at 10:55 am
“…I think poor/ predictable playcalling and poorly-timed running plays were the main reasons due our poor running game.”
Have you ever watched the blocking on a screen play? Incredible team work, precision. But with 3 people at new positions that have never played together in those positions, it would be almost impossible to be that in sync. So even a simple run play requires that same precision.
Give it time.
September 11th, 2025 at 11:02 am
Just knock off the run-up-the-middle on first down. Man, does that call drive me nuts. It’s usually always called when everyone listening/watching the game predicts it. When a humble fan can predict a call, what’s that tell ya?
September 11th, 2025 at 12:28 pm
Some of it may indeed be the offensive line shift, but I tend to agree with the statements about creativity more from another 1st time play caller.
Simple math tells you the percentage of hitting again goes WAAAAY down.
Where is the pony package?
Where are the misdirection plays?
I understand being different, but dang the proof is in the pudding watching Coen with the Jags. Gonna really suck if that guy is as legit as I think he may be as a Head Coach.
Good news is we won hardly doing anything creative.
IMO you have to have a handful of creative plays a game.
These are plays you believe in so much, you practice them A LOT and the team knows, these are the BIG PLAY opportunities etc.
Bucky was really fun to watch last year, but even Maurice Jones Drew said he is not a top 5 back, BEFORE we watched that game. My point is after 1 game, you have to wonder if Coen was the reason the run game exceled last year.
I still think if we win this game we start the season 5-0.
Let’s go Grizzard. You have all the tools at your disposal.
September 11th, 2025 at 4:28 pm
ARE YOU ALL MENTALLY CHALLENGED?
The Bucs replaced 3 OL! There are only 5. This was their first game together. They didn’t even play a single preseason game.
Did you miss that?
The goal was to not get Baker killed. Mission accomplished. Great job!
You don’t need an advanced stat to tell you they sucked at run blocking? Of course they did. We’re lucky they didn’t suck at pass protection, too.