One-And-Done Bucs
September 4th, 2025
Todd Bowles isn’t inspiring confidence.
Some national analysts Joe respects a lot, some not so much.
One in the respected category is Bob McGinn.
McGinn has been covering the NFL since 1979, the same year Sage Ira Kaufman took on his first NFL beat. McGinn had a hell of a long career covering the Green Bay Packers and became one of the first all-in draft nerds/gurus before the internet. He retired from traditional media about eight years ago and has been writing for various outlets ever since.
He’s now busy behind a paywall for Go Long a national NFL site. And yes, Joe has a subscription.
McGinn dropped his NFL picks today and has the Bucs winning the NFC South and losing in Round 1 of the playoffs. Not exactly a unique pick, but that’s why it struck Joe — because last night Joe saw the entire five-person ProFootballTalk.com writing crew make the same pick. Every one of them.
Lots of people are high on the Bucs but still think they can’t win a home game in the postseason. Strange.
Over and over Joe sees this take.
Todd Bowles has a 1-3 record in postseason games, all as a Bucs head coach. Football gods forbid, if Bowles loses again in a home Wild Card round game this season, he would join a rather ghastly list of head coaches — ghastly if you want to reach a Super Bowl.
Some coaches have been 1-3 or 2-4 in the postseason but at least got a first-round bye along the way, which is equivalent to a win. Bowles hasn’t gotten there yet.
A big year it is for Coach Bowles. Outside Tampa, most analysts don’t think he can win a big one.
The Annual Season Prediction Episode! Plus Ira Kaufman Talks Luke Goedeke, Season Perspective & More
September 4th, 2025 at 6:24 pm
Bowles = Dungy
September 4th, 2025 at 6:27 pm
Should have replaced bowls a long time ago he throws away too many games
September 4th, 2025 at 6:28 pm
Well, until you do it, people will doubt.
September 4th, 2025 at 6:30 pm
If you think playing in Tampa is a HUGE homefield advantage-you would be WRONG.Bucs fans will sell their tickets at a profit in abundance, especially now that there are no scalping laws. So many times over the last 30 years I have seen the opposing fans just as vocal as our own, and it disgusts me.
September 4th, 2025 at 6:41 pm
I’m not a Todd Bowles fan
But it’s ridiculous to expect a HC to win in the NFL, with the most injured team in the NFL. To make matters worse, nothing has been done to improve the defense. Except, to bring in an aging distraught Edge Rusher with no production last season. Drafting and injured CB in the 2nd round. Pinning our hopes at ILB with a 40 year old vet, and a former 5th round pick, that can’t stay healthy.
The offense is in total disarray
So many injuries at key positions
But at least the Special Teams will improve
September 4th, 2025 at 6:41 pm
@Bucsfan.. True there are no scalping laws, but it’s not like it’s difficult to purchase a playoff ticket from TM-really not much of a profit to be made on resale these days. Season ticket holders are now put in a spot to start paying for playoff tickets long before the season ends, makes no sense to commit to that only to hope to resell to make a few $$ at best.
September 4th, 2025 at 6:43 pm
I’d say there’s a first time for everything, but we destroyed the Eagles in the 1st round a couple of years ago. Last years game was down to the wire and could have easily been a different outcome with 1 or 2 less mistakes by the players. That’s the thing with all these predictions/rankings, just like the executive one from yesterday, often times they just fall in line with history. They don’t know what they haven’t seen.
September 4th, 2025 at 6:56 pm
bowles has a track record as hc of this football club. people arent making this up, they are predicting based on what they have already seen. bowles is average and not innovating. his record bears this out. another year of tiny tweaks on the margins isnt going to change the probable outcome. constantly people think the bucs got better and everyone else stayed the same or got worse, so therefore the bucs should win more games and go further. blind and biased.
September 4th, 2025 at 7:02 pm
Todd Bowles could win a Super Bowl and the same fans would still want him gone.
September 4th, 2025 at 7:33 pm
Bowles has no imagination on defense, same old blitz packages, same soft coverage, same old results. They just don’t innovate on defense and the stellar offense goes to waste. We will see in Atlanta, but I’m not expecting anything new. Hopefully this defense is different this year but I’m not expecting much. We will know in about three days. lol.
September 4th, 2025 at 7:33 pm
LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT BOWLES BUCS HC HISTORY …
2022 – TB12 and co. should have been a winner. Bowles and Leftwhich messed this up. Left was horrible. A better OC and this year is a little better.
2023 – $83M in dead cap. Baker 1st year. They beat the Eagles and almost beat Detroit. That’s solid.
2024 – $60M in dead cap. Injury riddled team. A healthy AWJ and we win Game 1 and possibly more.
Bowles is mid. He’s NEVER going to outcoach anyone. He needs a healthy team, but he can win with a healthy team.
September 4th, 2025 at 7:35 pm
Have to agree with Jimmy. The record is the record.
I will give him somewhat of a break due to the retool the roster had to go thru and the injuries last year. And give him credit for holding the team together thru the losing streaks, but he has responsibility for the losing streaks in the first place.
This roster is deeper and it’s good enough on offense to get to an nfc championship game. If the injuries are reasonable and he can’t win a home playoff game I’m not sure what ownership and the FO are expecting by keeping him.
September 4th, 2025 at 7:41 pm
Win a playoff game?
This team will be lucky to get a Wild Card
September 4th, 2025 at 7:46 pm
Injury complaints are common among fans, but the reality is every team suffers them. It’s life in the NFL. Other than an injury to a star QB, theres really no reason to complain.
Detroit went 15-2 last year with a defense comprised of street walkers.
The teams who have the best backups usually prevail.
September 4th, 2025 at 7:59 pm
Tbbf
Dungy built one of the greatest defenses in History.
Those aren’t the same.
September 4th, 2025 at 8:00 pm
@JA
True….to a point, but have you looked at Detroits defensive stats for the last half of the season last year? They sucked – significantly sh**tier stats than us 😉
Injuries are not an excuse BUT THEY ARE a factor…. for all teams to varying degrees.
September 4th, 2025 at 8:13 pm
Do the Bucs have the ________ to win in playoffs!
offense? yes
Defense? (poor scheme) so no
OC? (as passing coach last year did well) so yes
Hc/DC? (Clearly) NO!
September 4th, 2025 at 8:14 pm
sly
That’s a fair take. I agree with you and have similar feelings at QB I think Baker CAN win a SB with the right talent but he’s not a top 3 kind of guy who can compensate for substandard talent. I like the talent. Some luck with injuries, refs, bounces and Todd and Baker will be more than one and done.
September 4th, 2025 at 8:21 pm
HC Grizz? Dude hasn’r even been OC 1 game and I’m promoting him to HC lol
September 4th, 2025 at 8:25 pm
These analysts know what Aqualung and enlightened fans know. All one need do is look at performance and results. Being one and done means getting there, and until we see something besides cover nobody pass defense and a puntless opponent, the proof is in the turd pudding we’ve already been served the past three seasons. That might not happen with our part timer for two critical coaching jobs.
September 4th, 2025 at 8:33 pm
Wow.
How dumb is Jalen Carter?
September 4th, 2025 at 8:46 pm
Any Given Sunday, any team can beat any other team.
September 4th, 2025 at 8:49 pm
Until Baker Mayfield can close games out or win them in the playoffs when the games are in his hands we ain’t winning a Superbowl.
September 4th, 2025 at 8:56 pm
I have a no confidence vote for Bowles.
September 4th, 2025 at 9:01 pm
Analysts and commentators make predictions before the first week begins. That’s what they do. Making the playoffs is a meaningful prediction. How far you’ll go is not. Football is too flukey to take such that kind of specific prediction seriously. And also, no one can have a f’ing clue who we’d be matched up against. Again, predictions are just what they do. Making the playoffs? Ok. How far you’ll go…enjoy your horoscope.
September 4th, 2025 at 9:02 pm
Not fair to judge Todd Bowles in this way. He’s been the head coach since ‘22 and he’s never had all the pieces to get beyond the divisional round. In ‘22 they were missing a lot of pieces and it was the Tom Brady distraction season. ‘23 was a remarkably successful season and no one even predicted them to have a 500 record let alone win the division and beat the Eagles in the wildcard round. ‘24 the offense became something of a juggernaut but the defense was riddled with injuries throughout. This year is the first year he may have everything he needs if the injuries can be minimized. So we shall see what he can do.
September 4th, 2025 at 9:29 pm
Oscar for the win! Objectivity instead of hyperbole!
September 4th, 2025 at 9:44 pm
I think many pundits pay more attention to their peers in punditry than to what they are punditting about. Group think is rampant; occasional appearances of disagreements are to simulate controversy and get attention. The arguments are often based not on, say, football games but on what their colleagues are saying and writing about football. They agree that the NFC South is the worst division and can’t deny that in recent memory no other team has finished first in it. So, the Bucs are picked to win it; and since the division is the worst, whoever opposes them in the playoffs will be better and win.
September 4th, 2025 at 9:49 pm
I have Jalen Hurts going in this game. 20.5 points AT THE HALF. Good start!
Bowles is a very good head coach but I’m still a little mad he didn’t go for 2 against KC.
September 4th, 2025 at 10:09 pm
Jmark: Carter has zero emotional intelligence
September 4th, 2025 at 10:14 pm
You either like Bowles or you don’t
You can either say he is 1-3 in playoffs can’t win big game
Or you say injuries team or bad OC (Buck stops with HC)
Either way Can you honestly say something would change your mind
Most people NO you will hold to your side on this topic
Now 5 analysts say he can’t win again
So question Bowles Train WHAT CHANGES YOUR MIND if your a fan something should
September 4th, 2025 at 10:17 pm
Jihad Campbell with some nice coverage down the middle…
September 4th, 2025 at 10:20 pm
Homerism instead of rationale. Performance and results are undefeated as metrics.
September 4th, 2025 at 10:29 pm
Excellent. Keep them with the underdog mentality, a chip on their shoulder, out to prove something. It started that way this off-season and then over the last few weeks, I’ve seen a lot of people picking them to go far. Much rather see this.
September 4th, 2025 at 10:44 pm
Baker lost the playoff game last year
Not coach
Baker needs to protect the ball
Simple
September 4th, 2025 at 10:45 pm
Put the DC upstairs. Get a real HC to be with Griz on the sidelines.
September 4th, 2025 at 11:14 pm
#99 the Big Fella Says: “Todd Bowles could win a Super Bowl and the same fans would still want him gone.”
That’s not true at all. But, you have nothing to worry about there, “Big Fella.” It ain’t happenin.
September 4th, 2025 at 11:31 pm
Tampabaybucfan Says:
September 4th, 2025 at 6:24 pm
Bowles = Dungy
———
Bowles isn’t a HOF coach.
September 4th, 2025 at 11:34 pm
Some of you people can say all you want to, BUT there never would’ve been ANY “Playoffs” whatsoever, to begin with for Bowles, IF not for ‘his teams’ being in the most dreadful NFCS… THE WORST Division in the ENTIRE NFL. Period. These past two season’s (plus this season’s is looking very similar) ‘second-half’ schedules have been some of THE WORST I have ever seen before. Also, if YOUR OWN ‘eye-test’ hasn’t seen for yourself, the amount of incompetence and game day (and time) mismanagement, & etc. from THIS Head Coach, then I don’t know what else to tell ya! It has been HORRIFIC. And, COHEN saved HIS ASS period, last season. That’s just all there is to it.
September 4th, 2025 at 11:43 pm
I haven’t heard any “Dead Cap” excuses being made for Sean Payton yet (since the Russell Wilson fiasco), and he’s playing in one of the TOP 2 or 3 Divisions, in the league. With a 1st-year Rookie-QB last season.
September 4th, 2025 at 11:50 pm
Excuses are the food of the Loser.
September 5th, 2025 at 3:20 am
With what they’ve seen in Primetime games, it’s totally understandable. Not to mention mid season losing streaks, clock mis management, timidness and so on. Hopefully he gets it together. At least he can say he’s definitely not an Arians clone. Go BUCS GO BOWLES. 50 year Anniversary SB ring in 2025 would be sick.
September 5th, 2025 at 4:54 am
Most of them are right.
September 5th, 2025 at 7:32 am
It’s what I have been saying since the beginning. Bowles is a mediocre coach at best and his record screams that.
This will be anywhere from a 8-10 win team, winning a horrible division, and then getting bounced from the playoffs in the wild card round.
September 5th, 2025 at 8:23 am
The best possible scenario is to get the Eagles at home after a super bowl appearance year. Then we will blow them out like 2 years ago. Thus time we will beat the Lions.
September 5th, 2025 at 8:30 am
The wide receiver that ran the wrong jet sweep timing route lost the game pure and simple. Grizz should not run a tricky gimmick play that deep in enemy territory. Emeka will run the timing perfectly at midfield and take it to the house.
September 5th, 2025 at 10:31 am
Todd Blows can’t out coach good coaches when it matters or scheme up a competent pass defense.
Unless the other team has a HUGE deficiency (Injured players, dumber coach than Todd) he can’t beat them
September 5th, 2025 at 10:47 am
Bowles is just a bad head coach and a never great and recently poor DC. It is what it is. Should have never extended him as it’s probably going to cost us again. I hope I am 100% wrong.
September 5th, 2025 at 11:06 am
Bowles is not an outstanding head coach but he is better than mediocre. That’s my take. He is not extremely innovative. He is not charismatic. He is still a good coach. He is capable of leading us to the Super Bowl.
September 5th, 2025 at 2:32 pm
This is a talent driven business. It takes time to accumulate enough to get to the big game. Far be it from me to throw shade at Jason Licht but I think the Bucs may have to go into next year’s draft (barring a catastrophic letdown this season) with the thought process in mind of stockpiling 1st and 3rd to move up to get an outside pass rusher. It is very rare to get a dominant one picking around 20-32. The window will only be open for so long. Hopefully Licht will be able to do just that. I will say this. Something nobody seems to be talking much about is Braswell did have quite a few hurries and pressures in preseason. I have extreme confidence in Licht but we cannot keep reaching for pass rushers. If the picks this year look like they have fixed what they needed to fix that means the Bucs are really close and leaves only linebackers inside and out needed. Next draft may be the time to stock pile and move up to get a pass rusher or maybe Reddick will pull his best Shaq Barrett impersonation and eliminate the need altogether for 3 years. Point is Bowles has been working with a patchwork defense for sometime and needs top tier talent. Far to much praise is giving to coaches when they succeed and to much criticism when they fail. Not saying that they don’t make a difference but it always comes down to Talent ,talent, talent.
As always Go Bucs.
September 5th, 2025 at 3:14 pm
I’m happy Bowles is our coach. We’re competitive each year and that’s all I want. I couldn’t care less what these pundits think. Go Bucs!
September 5th, 2025 at 6:27 pm
That’s what would happen if you don’t sign other teams’ free agents.