Mike Tanier: Bucs Win NFC South But They Might Be In For A Battle
August 27th, 2025
How healthy?
OK, let’s cut to the chase: NFL analyst/humorist Mike Tanier, formerly of Football Outsiders (RIP), the New York Times, Sports on Earth (remember that?) and many other deceased publications, believes the Bucs will win the NFC South.
However, Tanier does foresee the Bucs having to navigate potholes. It won’t be a cakewalk, Tanier typed on his Substack “Too Deep Zone.”
The Bucs endured a losing streak and a sweep by the Falcons last year, yet they still won the division. But can we really expect the Falcons to keep taking obliging steps backwards so the Bucs can remain in front? Probably. But that’s not worth risking money or bragging rights upon. And even if you aren’t worried that the Bucs have gotten worse, it’s hard to find a single reason to suggest that they can do anything more than narrowly win the Sun Belt Conference and then get hammered at home by the Commanders/Packers/Rams in the playoffs.
Well, Joe is not on the Packers bandwagon. And the Matt Stafford back watch should worry all 17 Rams fans in Los Angeles.
Tanier points out injuries may just stunt the growth of the Bucs. They’re down Jalen McMillan for who knows how long. Chris Godwin? Maybe he will be ready in October.
Tristan Wirfs? He told the Sage of Tampa Bay Sports, Ira Kaufman, yesterday that he’s shooting for Week 4 but that’s a best-case scenario. Wirfs also added that Week 3 might be pushing it.
Then, there is the Antoine Winfield mysterious “lower leg” injury. Winfield blew out his ankle in Week 1 last year, and he was a shell of himself the rest of the season.
Winfield didn’t come close to playing at the All-Pro level he established in 2023.
If the Bucs can make it to Week 5 with a 3-1 or even a 2-2 record, and Wirfs and Godwin are back and Winfield isn’t hampered, then Joe believes the Bucs will be fine.
If the Bucs are 1-3 when they face Seattle, we could be looking at a catastrophe.
August 27th, 2025 at 7:03 am
Wow. What an astute and breathtaking prediction. “They should win it but they man not win it.”
August 27th, 2025 at 7:16 am
The biggest worry on that list is Wirfs. Now its possibly looking like week 5?
August 27th, 2025 at 7:19 am
SlurpandMunchmyRod, is your name making fun of RodMunch who is a huge trask fan that posts here?
Back to the article, if we can hit the ground running I think we will be fine. Idc how many ballers the Falcons have. They have proved time and time again that they choke when it matters, and they also give up easily. Penis jr didnt play a full season last year and it is concerning that KirkoChainz is still on the team. I would be worried if Penix gets benched for Kirkochainz against us. Heck, that whole team changes with KirkoChainz, but KirkoChainz chokes in the playoffs so as long as we get to the dance I think we will be fine. Though as a team and an organization, we always win the season because of our culture. Those teams just cannot generate a solid output like that because they do not have the culture.
August 27th, 2025 at 7:25 am
“…all 17 Rams fans…”
Exactly. But Tampa is always the place to get scoffed at for half-hearted fans. We may have our challenges from a largely transplanted population, as well as the heat, but we’ve got a vastly superior fan base compared to places like L.A. And about the heat, all it would take is some overhangs on the stadium to create some shade (see Joe Robbie stadium).
August 27th, 2025 at 7:42 am
Still coming to grips with the fact the Bucs lost 2x to the Falcons last year. The Bucs need to exude dominance over their division this year and go at least 5-1 against these soft teams and pad their record for playoff seeding time. The biggest and only concern for this team this year is that Putrid Pass Defense needs to be a lot better or we are not going anywhere. Go Bucs!!
August 27th, 2025 at 7:55 am
Scariest thing put up there: “Tristan Wirfs? He told the Sage of Tampa Bay Sports, Ira Kaufman, yesterday that he’s shooting for Week 4 but that’s a best-case scenario.”
If Evans and Ebuka are healthy we can breathe at WR. I hope Winfield was precautionary. If so, should be good. But Wirfs the best case scenario language of Week 4 is not good.
August 27th, 2025 at 8:00 am
As long as Raheem Morris is their head coach, they will continue to melt down at crucial times. That’s how old coach Rah does it. I can’t believe there was something called “Sports on Earth,” that’s one of the dumbest names I’ve ever heard.
August 27th, 2025 at 8:11 am
Red Pen is right abour Morris. I’ll take it one step further. Raheem will be fired at the end of this season.
August 27th, 2025 at 8:14 am
After looking over the 53 this roster isn’t really that deep. We’re hoping Reddick reclaims his old magic, and YaYa takes a leap, but what if they don’t? After them we got Braswell, and Nelly. Winfield needs to stay healthy, Tykee we have hopes for, After them? The secondary is already a MASH unit, our 2nd round pick didn’t make it through camp. Wirfs, Godwin, and now J Mac? Not encouraging.
August 27th, 2025 at 8:37 am
@TruthbeTold, perfectly said. I think there is more potential for the Panthers to challenge than there is for a Falcons sweep of the Bucs again this year. When I look at the NFC South, I see weakness and the Bucs really should be mollywopping the Saints and Falcons for me to really BELIEVE, believe. Coach Bowles has some huge injury related issues to deal with, but our division is trash wrapped in poo.
August 27th, 2025 at 8:44 am
atlanta killed us passing over the middle and we turned the ball over that’s why we lost to them twice, they match up good against us drake london pitts and bijan
i really believe hassan willbe the spark needed he will take the focus off yaya and we’ll pressure penix otw what a doom and gloom post and comments lol we’re not going 2-14 and the panthers should be improved a little…. reddick is the key to a good season
August 27th, 2025 at 8:48 am
It always comes down to health and Bowles defense and this year will be no different.
August 27th, 2025 at 8:51 am
Nope. They’re pulling away from the division this year. They went by 2-3 games
August 27th, 2025 at 8:57 am
Joe … ‘If the Bucs are 1-3 when they face Seattle, we could be looking at a catastrophe.’
Agree Joe. Also agree with Hodad; our situation as of this moment is ‘not encouraging’. Three primary players on our 53-man roster (Wirfs, McMillian, Izien) already injured and several others (like Winfield & Morrison) nursing lingering injuries from training camp, plus McMillan on IR now. We kept only 8 OLinemen (with Wirfs being one) so we’re very thin there, and our backups have limited experience. We kept only 5 DLinemen so we’re very thin there too. The rest of who we kept on defense doesn’t currently scream ‘He11 ya this is a Top-10 defense’, and that’s before the injuries start.
Those first 4 games will be challenging to say the least: Falcons (away), Texans (away), Jets (here) and Eagles (here). Your 1-3 is a distinct possibility without Wirfs & Godwin in there, especially if we sustain any additional injuries to key players.
August 27th, 2025 at 8:58 am
The gameplan remains the same against this D – spread them out and beat them to the open space – it’s been child’s play for a few years now
We got a little better in the secondary and one on the down side vet OLB
The injuries on O are an added burden to carry, you know the entire FO was counting on scoring 30 a game to cover for the not there yet D
The new OC better be a wizard play caller and Todd has to be better at getting his D off the field with more 3 and outs
The special teams do seem to be much better than the Kieth Armstrong era of misery
August 27th, 2025 at 9:10 am
if the bucs think the south is gonna be a cakewalk then they are in trouble. every team in the south is going to be coming for them and play good bad or ugly to win more than they normally would.
the last few weeks has been nothing but “bucs win the south of course what are you stupid” from every crack and crevice of the blogosphere and the media.
acting like the south is a lock considering how it went down to the wire last year and the bucs mgmt were wearing depends to not show they were soiling their drawers waiting for someone else to beat someone else because they couldnt drive them selves to the playoff dance because of their pathetic performances against the falcons.
the mass amnesia is pretty funny. funny sheesh though, not haha.
August 27th, 2025 at 9:20 am
after the 1st 4 games – Bucs’ next 3 games schedule is at Seahawks, 49ers at home, at Lions.
Then after an away game against Saints, they play a much improved
Patriots at home , 2 road games at Bills and Rams and a tough home game against Cardinals.
They need to be at least 6-5 or playoff chances are slim.
August 27th, 2025 at 10:04 am
I believe all teams have to deal with injuries. So it’s probably better they occur early in the season. That said, the Bucs need to focus on one game at a time, game planning for the players available! This offense will put up points. If the defense can consistently get off the field on third and fourth downs, all will be good! A 3/1 start is highly probable. A 4/0 start is very possible. Get it done!!
August 27th, 2025 at 10:08 am
Wasn’t Brady 4-4 in the Super Bowl year before the team turned it around?
August 27th, 2025 at 10:21 am
“””They need to be at least 6-5 or playoff chances are slim.”””
I believe that 6-5 is the best case scenario at this point.
August 27th, 2025 at 10:23 am
Winning the South is a lot more possible than all this #1 Seed in the NFC talk. It won’t be easy. Our conference rivals, Panthers and Atlanta, are making changes. Aints, who knows? All these conference games are dogfights. One bright spot is the Special Teams improvement. This fan is staying cautious from many years of being a fan. We’ll see soon.
August 27th, 2025 at 10:34 am
I hope Pete Prisco is correct about 5-1 in division but all you have to do is look ‘24 @carolina and home against the saints. These teams play each other so much that most games are competitive.
On the positive side there are always games you think will be L’s that end up being wins like packers ‘23 and chargers ‘24.
The injuries are going to be tough to start the season….we shouldn’t sugar coat it. We need complimentary football and hopefully some luck with the turnover margin to help out. Also – keeping the O on the field and our opponents offense off will be huge.
August 27th, 2025 at 10:44 am
“As long as Raheem Morris is their head coach, they will continue to melt down at crucial times.”
Same could be said about Todd B.
August 27th, 2025 at 10:57 am
“Hammered at home”?
Tannier must think Washington won by 3 scores last year or something
August 27th, 2025 at 11:11 am
These people remain humorous is not maddening. Hammered at home !? Packers ? When is last time they beat the Bucs? Rams OL isn’t ours, I bet there are some pass rushers in the NFC West who would love a shot at Staffords back, I’d be very uncomfortable if I was a Rams fan.
Not sure how anyone could think the Bucs didn’t improve.
Wirfs is a problem. A bad medical opinion could derail the opening quarter of the season and who knows the domino effect.
August 27th, 2025 at 11:16 am
the Bucs are a bit more beat up now but early last season they managed a 3-1 start with Kancey out, Goedeke missed games 2-5, Winfield got hurt week 1, etc etc. Just saying.
August 27th, 2025 at 11:51 am
Licht has been too confident in ‘his guys’ the last couple years. The depth in this team is dreadful and we have a ton of injury/prone starters. We have some cap money; he needs to pony up and bring in some FAs…Asante Samuel Jr, Katie White, Skipper: the Lions recently- released swing T.
August 27th, 2025 at 11:52 am
*Kazir White
August 27th, 2025 at 12:48 pm
Rest assured. Bowles will keep it close.