Sharp Football Analysis: It’s All On Todd Bowles
July 9th, 2025
Answers for defense?
Famed handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp had a love/hate relationship with the Bucs last season.
One one hand Sharp loved, loved, loved the efficient offense run by former Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen.
On the other hand, Sharp hated, hated, hated how soft Bucs coach Todd Bowles’ defense was with its pass defense.
In Sharp’s annual Sharp Football Analysis Preview 2025, he convincingly explains the Bowles’ defense sunk the Bucs’ pirate ship on way too many occasions. And, Sharp also believes, how or if Bowles can repair that defense will determine how well this otherwise loaded team will finish the season.
The real question is whether Todd Bowles can fix the defense that tanked first halves and forced Tampa into comeback mode far too often. If he can, the Bucs have every reason to believe they can win the NFC South again.
Yes, that’s a big question, given the fact that only once since he arrived in Tampa has Bowles had a pass defense that was not ranked in the 20s. And that was 2022, in Bowles’ worst season as head coach when the pass defense was No. 9.
In a passing league, if the pass defense regularly gets torched, you better have a dynamic offense to keep your head above water.
And maybe that’s what Bowles was thinking when he signed off on the Bucs drafting Emeka Egbuka. The Bucs, Bowles may think, will require enough ammo to win shootouts.
July 9th, 2025 at 10:46 am
Hate to get out in front of the daily “Fire Bowles” mob, but first 3-4 games of the year….No Tristan Wirfs, he’s having surgery on his right knee and going to miss all of camp.
July 9th, 2025 at 10:49 am
There’s always more nuance to how a sub unit performs (injuries/no pass rush with 4), which is why it’s good to look at the stat that matters… PPG. 3/6 years Bowles D has been in top 10, 2 years in teens and 1 in 20s (1st year 2019 with Jameis setting many teams up in plus territory).
Rod Munch
This runs in line with one of the other article responses I had back at you. CJ Stroud had a D last year, while Baker didn’t have that luxury. He carried the team, even with widespread injuries.
July 9th, 2025 at 10:57 am
Sux Wirfs had surgery yesterday gonna miss a couple of games 🤬
July 9th, 2025 at 11:02 am
So, who’s going to fill in for Wirfs while he’s away? Grizz didn’t need to have an increase in difficulty factor added to his inexperience as OC. And, the first game of the season is at Atlanta with their new edge rushers? Gulp!
BEAT ATLANTA!!!!
July 9th, 2025 at 11:02 am
Just saw, OMG. Charlie Heck first 2-3 games
July 9th, 2025 at 11:04 am
There are a fair amount of people that understand you need to draft players to fill inefficiency at positions. My question to all the pundits, with their supposed rock solid opinions on coaches and how a team performs, or doesn’t, would be, what is your solution to where the problem actually lies, and how it started? Not… well since there’s a big problem with the defense, just overload the offense. Thats a lazy assessment that a child could make. Why not weigh the intangibles that were out of a coaches control, like injuries to a defense or offense. Tangible aspects of the game are easy to address, most of the time, but if we solely come to conclusions on only the tangible, how can an argument ever be 2 sided. There are too many factors left up to interpretation when an argument is one sided, and only feeds someones likes and comments, instead of having an honest and fair argument. There’s too much ego and pride for entertainment purposes these days to give credence to these massive media outlets for the game to be reviewed in a fair manner, in my humble opinion.
July 9th, 2025 at 11:12 am
Teams ran the ball against us 389 times
The 3rd lowest in the NFL
Teams passed the ball against us 630 times
The 2nd highest in the NFL
It’s obvious we’re going to rank lower in pass defense
But we were 16th in points allowed
And that’s the important stat
It’s not that bad, considering the injuries he had
July 9th, 2025 at 11:14 am
Joe……….Where the He!! did Wirfs sudden injury come from?
July 9th, 2025 at 11:20 am
Not having cement shoes Britt in the middle of the field is an immediate improvement to the defense.
July 9th, 2025 at 11:33 am
2022 was only in top 10 passing defense because that year Bucs were down big every game and teams ran the ball. Remember how many times that year Brady brought us back from the dead in the 4th. Sorry Bowles needs to hire. Defensive coordinator. It won’t be any better this year. A leopard doesn’t change its spots!
July 9th, 2025 at 11:36 am
We held teams to 23 points or less 11 times, including the playoffs
That gave our offense an opportunity to win 11 games, by scoring 24 points. It wasn’t like our defense just rolled over and died!!
July 9th, 2025 at 11:39 am
Last year.
Wirfs was in a knee brace in underwear football and Joe sounded the alarm. Bbbuuuttt… Joe got mocked on this site for being concerned. Joe was told by these same people it was nothing.
“Nothing” doesn’t require a knee brace, forcing a guy to stand on the sidelines — in underwear football!
July 9th, 2025 at 12:34 pm
Lakeland Buc gets it
July 9th, 2025 at 1:27 pm
My bad sir. You are on top of more than most when it comes to floppy hat duty and Vets days off than most journalists.
I knew about last yr. Didn’t know it was re aggravated and needed surgery.
Ive been working a lot lately tho.
I gotta call LUVMYBUCS now. He is gonna have a bunch to say. LOL
July 9th, 2025 at 1:28 pm
The myth that we have this great run defense lies in the fact that we have a terrible pass defense.
Why bother running?
July 9th, 2025 at 1:29 pm
JBF … ‘And, Sharp also believes, how or if Bowles can repair that defense will determine how well this otherwise loaded team will finish the season.’
Bottom line is that IF the Bucs expect to win the Super Bowl, our defense MUST improve dramatically. We’ve added some real talent via the draft (CB Morrison, CB Parrish, OLB Walker, DT Roberts), plus a very good FA OLB in Reddick & solid MLB Anthony Walker. We’ve gotten back a few defensive guys who were hurt much of last season (Winfield, Bryce Hall, SVD) and re-signed several good performers from last season (Gaines, Nelson).
Moving Tykee Smith to Safety SHOULD improve that position, and whoever wins the MLB position will be an upgrade over Britt. Our CB group looks to be stronger, as does our OLB group. IF our defense can stay just reasonably healthy this season, there’s no reason that we can’t end up in the Top-10. And IF our offense can also rank in the Top-10, there’s no reason we can’t win the NFC South AND make some noise in the playoffs.
July 9th, 2025 at 1:36 pm
@Defense Rules
Agreed 💯
July 9th, 2025 at 1:49 pm
Being that this seems to have been a known injury for awhile, legit to question if the surgery could have been done earlier to lesson the regular season impact. Assume it was delayed to see how the knee responded to treatment, but being that OL knees take such a beating it likely would’ve been needed at some point regardless.
July 9th, 2025 at 1:57 pm
“We held teams to 23 points or less 11 times, including the playoffs”
Not only did these 11 games account for all 10 of our wins, but we forced a combined 11 takeaways in those games and had 11 giveaways in those games.
The only loss was the Commanders game and we were -1 turnover margin in that one.
July 9th, 2025 at 2:08 pm
We didn’t win one single game, when our defense gave up 27 points or more. That was the weakness of our offense, they could not put up a lot of points when we needed a lot of points. I wanna see this offense put up points, when we need points. Not just putting up 51 against a weak Saints team..
July 9th, 2025 at 2:56 pm
@LakelandBuc
That’s the problem with avgs and stats…. 50 points 1 game and 10 another is still 30ppg avg.
But the reality is much different in the actual, individual games. If we had actually scored 30 points in all of our games we’d have picked up a few more Ws.
Jmarkbuc Says:
July 9th, 2025 at 1:28 pm
How is it a myth that our run D is good/great?
I’m grateful our run D has remained stout the last couple of years. We’d be looking at a lot more losses if that weren’t the case.
July 9th, 2025 at 8:18 pm
@GoneGator
It was clear about 1/2 to 2/3 into the season, that teams were not afraid to pass against the Bucs, instead of run, bc the middle of the field was wide azz open. It not really that our run D was bad. TB puts a lot into stopping the run, no doubt.
For the year, teams passed for 2500 yards on 418 completions (the most completions given up in the NFL), for 9.9 yards/comp. and a 67% completion rate. WTH would you bother to waste a run attempt?
Oh yeah, and the precious run D? IT gave up 4.3/attempt. What is so great about that? Another factor into the myth that our run D is good/great.
Don’t mean any ill will here, but the Bucs D SUCKED last year. I don’t care that they were a respectable 16 in points allowed.
July 9th, 2025 at 9:34 pm
@SenorHarry
I’m just using the same stats that Todds critics use against him. Overall ranking.
Our pass defense did not rank well in OVERALL performance (ypg mostly).
Our run defense was top 5 OVERALL. Thats not a myth, its a statistic.
Some people (not saying you) will do anything to minimize any measure of success by our HC and defense. I find it ridiculous that overall pass defense can be slammed over and over but a top 5 overall run defense is called a “myth” or excused away.
Geez, do you REALLY think teams would not run against us if they could? No debating that our secondary and pass D was the weak link but cmon man. Teams ran against us (or tried) at the same clip they did against other league leaders..
Top 5 in rushing defense 2024
Baltimore Ravens 383/1,361/3.55
Minnesota Vikings 392/1,588/4.05
Denver Broncos 424/1,639/3.87
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 389/1,663/4.28
Detroit Lions 369/1,672/4.53
July 9th, 2025 at 9:38 pm
Dang, that Todd Bowles is ripped. . .
July 10th, 2025 at 6:12 am
Gone Gator, I get your point. But how many years has R White averaged 4.29 ypc, isn’t that a pretty good average? I think the reason the Bucs run D had limited total yards was bc opponents could throw at a 67% completion rate and get 9.9 npc. why run? Only 10 QBs averages a 67% completion rate in 2024
Brother GoneGator, I am not trying to slam TB. I want to see him succeed. There are WAY worse coaches out there we can sign up, as we know too well. I don’t want Lovie reruns. I think the D is bad because of a lack of talent. I still don’t know if Todd is a good HC, but he is damn good as a DC. And as an HC, he is super good at developing the talent Licht finds (I think that is why Licht loves Todd, Todd makes Licht look good, as he should), and he is good at hiring a staff. Todd’s ultra conservative coaching (playing not to loose that results in close loses) hurts us, and that may never completely go away. It is who he is
July 10th, 2025 at 12:06 pm
The evidence is clear and obvious. Bowles should not be trying to do two jobs. He sucks at them both.
July 10th, 2025 at 2:03 pm
@Senor Harry.
I get your point too. I don’t know the answer to your RW question – one could ask the same about Minnesota or Detroit who also allowed 4+ ypc but ranked in top 5.
But….
I just don’t believe teams game plan to abandon the run because our pass D sucked. If teams CAN run they DO run…. Its the safest, most effective way to win IF you can do it.
I appreciate the fact you that can have a discussion without personal attacks brother. And I appreciate the fact that you want what is best for all concerned, including our HC 👍🏼
Todds self scouting and willingness to evolve gives me hope. Do I think he’s a great coach? Not yet but he could be before he’s thru. Do I think he’s a good coach? Yes, absolutely and without a doubt he’s (imo) the best man for the current job.
This season, with better talent and depth on the defensive side of the ball, will be another incremental step one way or another. If we go backwards without suffering catastrophic injuries then I’ll join those who say Todd should go. Til then I’m with the front office and players in believing Todd’s the best man for the job and I’m optimistic about this coming year 💯
July 11th, 2025 at 4:21 am
Keep blaming the defense when it damn near every loss was predicated on the offense flailing and/or turning the ball over.