The Answer To Drafting Emeka Egbuka Lies Within The Numbers
July 1st, 2025
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Every once in a while, Joe will read a commenter grumbling that the Bucs drafted a wide receiver in the first round instead of an inside linebacker or a safety.
Joe gets that sentiment. One could argue that on paper, even by reaching in the draft, the Bucs could have used an inside linebacker.
Joe thinks the main reason why the Bucs selected Egbuka at No. 19 overall is they were true to their board. The Bucs swear they had Egbuka as a top-10 pick and he was still on the board at No. 19.
Then again, when is the last time a team drafted someone in the first round and claimed the guy was a second-round talent but they reached for him anyway because they liked how he interviewed?
Now the Bucs swear Chris Godwin’s injury had nothing to do with the Egbuka pick. Sure, Jan, Joe finds that difficult to believe. Not even subliminally were the Bucs concerned Godwin was iffy to play Week 1?
But here is a reason the Bucs pulled the trigger on Egbuka, aside from his superior talent and upside: When both Mike Evans and Godwin missed the same three games last year, Bucs receiver production was awful. It fell off the cliff.
So that right there suggested drafting a receiver wasn’t a silly choice.
But wait, there’s more: Noted handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp put out stats last week showing the percentages of incomplete passes caused by receiver error for each team. The Bucs were tied at No. 6 with the likes of receiver powerhouses Pittsburgh, Carolina, Houston, Dallas and Tennessee.
Houston, like the Bucs, had major injuries to its receivers.
So the Bucs’ two best receivers missed a total of 13 games, including three full games at the same time. Take those guys out of the lineup and the Bucs were banking on a rookie, an aging veteran and a collection of hangers-on for Baker Mayfield.
Yeah, on a macro level, Joe can sort of understand someone grumbling about drafting a receiver at No. 19. But dig a little deeper and one can see the bones buried beneath the surface.
highest rate of incompletions due to receiver error:
23% – GB
22% – NYJ
21$
20% – LAC, ATL
19% – CIN
18% – NYG, NO, SF, WAS
17% – PIT, TB, CAR, HOU, DAL, TEN
16% – IND, CLE, MIA, DEN
15% – MIN, BUF, BAL
14% – KC, ARI
12% – NE, CHI, PHI, LAR
11%
10%
9% – DET
8% – LV*2024…
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 28, 2025
July 1st, 2025 at 12:32 am
He is good and we will all be glad he is a Buc.
July 1st, 2025 at 1:11 am
Off topic…man I wonder how any Bengals fans who have seen these numbers must feel? They’ve invested alot of loot on fat contracts for Chase and Higgins, and the team has that high a percentage of incompletions due to receiver error!? Ouch! Oh, and I too was fine the EE pick at #19. That was one gruesome foot/ankle injury Chris is rehabbing from.
July 1st, 2025 at 1:11 am
In most of the other articles, the Joe’s have anointed this kid. Let’s see him do something first…. You’ve already got him pegged as better than Godwin. And that take had nothing to do with Godwin’s injury. I think everyone should slow down.
July 1st, 2025 at 1:13 am
I wonder how much that number is skewed by having godwin out for most of the year and Evans out for a couple games, where we relied on some scrub guys while a rook was learning. What was tampa 2 years ago?
Regardless, having egbuka should really help. He seems like a godwin clone.
July 1st, 2025 at 1:33 am
…and Godwin even when he’s back isn’t going to that amazing YAC guy he was in all probability. Plus Mike moves like he’s been in a car accident after a few snaps in a row in the second half. I get it and am coming to peace with it. It’s just…there is no speed here. I feel like if you go wr round 1 you want to get home run threat and Egbuka is a move the chains guy. Even at full strength toward playoff time (which I guess is the idea) we only have Parker to take the top off the defense. Maybe it’s a bet on the run game cuz that’s not a competitive 3rd and long or 2 minute warning formula. Maybe a concession to Mayfields down field passing limitations? Seems pretty easy for defensive coordinators to figure us out eventually.
July 1st, 2025 at 4:58 am
Excited to see what Buka does. Go Bucs!
July 1st, 2025 at 5:03 am
B, you meant Palmer, not Parker. First problem with your analysis is that Palmer won’t be on the roster this year. Second problem with your analysis is everything else.
July 1st, 2025 at 7:19 am
As I recall Cade Otton (not mentioned by Joe) really stepped his game up during the injury period.
July 1st, 2025 at 7:40 am
Evans looks slow-ish because he’s 6’5″, dude still has it
July 1st, 2025 at 7:42 am
Starting with Monday night at home against Baltimore, anyone who watched the stretch of games from that point on could see this issue.
With Evan’s age and godwins history you cannot take a chance that will happen again. It’s not difficult to imagine both being hurt again. Maybe it’s acute soft tissue or something serious.
July 1st, 2025 at 7:59 am
“Godlovesbucs Says:
July 1st, 2025 at 1:13 am
I wonder how much that number is skewed by having godwin out for most of the year and Evans out for a couple games, where we relied on some scrub guys while a rook was learning. What was tampa 2 years ago?”
Umm…. I think that was exactly Joe’s point and the Bucs thinking here. Chances of one or both of them hurt (again) is pretty high. Both Evans and Godwin have a long laundry list of injuries. Mike’s hamstring needs duct tape and bailing wire at time, and Godwin has had two major injuries now. Those injuries will catch up, sooner or later.
Drafting Ebuka vs reaching for a LB or and edge rusher (none were available worth 19th overall) was 100% the right move.
July 1st, 2025 at 8:19 am
Kenton … LOL
Hugely agree.
I’d rather have good roure running and amazing hands and a decent amount of speed than a burner that only catches here and there. Ebuka is a Swiss army knife, not a one trick pony.
July 1st, 2025 at 8:37 am
Ding… ding… ding!
July 1st, 2025 at 9:01 am
These guys measure everything…. would like to see a breakdown on interceptions for each team’s qb, is it on qb or is it on receiver.
Pretty interesting game, 11 guys must be on the same page doing their assigned duty, one break down and it all can fall apart.