The Bucs And Interceptions
July 19th, 2025
Needs work on one stat.
A lot of folks will look at these stats below and probably pick up on Bucs coach Todd Bowles’ rallying cry about picks.
And Joe agrees: Picks were an issue. Bucs’ picks. They need less, not more.
On offense, that is. No, the Bucs didn’t have a good turnover ratio despite doing well forcing fumbles.
What likely doomed the Bucs more than not getting picks on defense was Baker Mayfield throwing picks. This offense was (and may still be) so dangerous that a pick likely cost the Bucs offense a field goal. Maybe more.
And given how many close games the Bucs played last year, those picks likely added up in a major way, a bad way. The Bucs lost six one-score games, including the playoff loss to Washington. An extra possession may have made all the difference in the world.
Last season Mayfield was tied with Kirk Cousins for a league-leading 16 interceptions. Cut those in half, the Bucs likely win two or more games.
turnover margin in 2024
+24 – BUF
+23
+22
+21
+20
+19
+18
+17
+16 – PIT
+15
+14
+13
+12 – GB, LAC, MIN
+11 – PHI
+10 – HOU
+9 – DET
+8 – CHI
+7
+6 – KC, BAL, LAR, DEN
+5
+4
+3 – CIN
+2
+1 – WAS
0
-1
-2 – NO, NYJ
-3 – ARI
-4 – IND
-5 – TB, CAR, MIA
-6 – SEA, ATL, DAL
-7
-8 – NYG…— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) February 21, 2025
July 19th, 2025 at 8:26 am
Yes Baker threw 16 INTs, BUT if you look at the distribution of those INTs throughout the season, it WASN’T at all linear (say 1 INT per game). Quite the contrary, his INTs came in ‘clumps’.
o Games 1-5: Baker threw just 2 INTs (we went 3-2).
o Games 6-8: Baker threw 7 INTs (we went 1-2).
o Games 9-11: Baker threw 0 INTs (we went 1-2).
o Games 12-14: Baker threw 5 INTs (we went 3-0).
o Games 15-17: Baker threw 2 INTs (we went 2-1).
Not exactly a linear distribution of INTs on the season. Baker threw 12 of his 16 INTs in just 6 games … and the TEAM went 4-2 in those games. Probably 2 reasons: our defense ‘rose to the occasion’ in several of those particular games, AND our offense laid down a lot of points in those 6 games (202 pts for a 33.6 PPG average). IOW the team rallied to compensate for the INTs, except against the Ravens & the Falcons.
July 19th, 2025 at 8:35 am
I’m curious if Baker’s interceptions are the result of bad throws, or are they Jameis interceptions where he gets baited into thinking someone is open and they’re not.
July 19th, 2025 at 8:38 am
They were as bad as the Flacons and Panthers. Essential that they improve otherwise they will unlikely get to the Super Bowl.
Improvement will make them legit contenders to play in the Super Bowl.
July 19th, 2025 at 8:40 am
Great breakdown Defense Rules. I would have thought the pics would have been more impactful. Unfortunately we were not so lucky on the impact of his turnovers in the last two playoff games so he definitely needs to clean those up.
July 19th, 2025 at 8:41 am
I looked at Bake’s picks:
Bake didn’t see defender – 6
Off receiver hands, or lost fight for ball – 3
Bake forced into coverage under duress – 3
Inaccurate throw – 2
Ball batted at LOS -2
Bake needs to look off defenders more, when Bake doesn’t see the defender it appears the defender (nickel or safety) is reading his eyes and moves off one receiver onto the one Bake is targeting.
July 19th, 2025 at 8:43 am
Statistics can make your head spin eh. 16 is not that huge a number to draw a lot of conclusions.
Our eyes tell us that just like all strong armed QB’s with super confidence Baker can force some throws. Too much faith in the receivers adds to the equation.
The unknowable except to film junkies…Griz!!…is how many possible ints turned into TD’s precisely because Baker DID force it or he trusted ME and CG and they DID win the battle for the football.
But just look at the results in D.R.s spread. If you didn’t watch football and simply looked at those numbers you’d say there’s not much correlation between the # of ints and the winning and losing. It’s actually kind of amazing.
One three game stretch Baker throws 7 ints result 1-2 then he throws 0 and gets the same result 1-2 comes back and throws 5 and goes undefeated~!!
Go figure. IMHO all ints are not equal. Some are stupid mistakes, some the D just outplays you. It’s obvious cutting down on the stupid ones would surely give the Bucs a far better chance at winning.
July 19th, 2025 at 8:45 am
JimBob
Didn’t see your post before I submitted mine. That’s an excellent take. Answered a couple questions for me.
July 19th, 2025 at 9:10 am
JimBobBuc … Exceptional analysis! As I look at those, it’d be hard to tell what Baker really needs to change. He’s the height that he is, so things like batted balls at the LOS are gonna happen (same with looking over 6’6″ DLinemen). Baker usually throws quite hard, so balls deflecting off of receivers’ hands a couple times a season are probably gonna happen still.
His 16 INTs amounts to 1 INT per game. That’s admittedly higher than what I’d prefer (0 is a nice number), but he threw a LOT last season (570 attempts was 10th most in the league & was an average of almost 34 throws per game). Thankfully we put up almost 30 PPG with him completing over 70% of his passes. That number of INTs could’ve been problematic if we’d been scoring a lot less or he’d been completing a lot fewer.
July 19th, 2025 at 9:33 am
DR confirmed what I’d thought–a fair # of picks, but no pick 6’s, and I REALLY couldn’t remember any that were game changers
July 19th, 2025 at 9:37 am
@ Joe
“The Bucs lost six one-score games, including the playoff loss to Washington. An extra possession may have made all the difference in the world.
Last season Mayfield was tied with Kirk Cousins for a league-leading 16 interceptions. Cut those in half, the Bucs likely win two or more games.”
I said the same exact thing and got attacked by a gang of rabid “Baker Bros”…
LOL!!!!!!!
July 19th, 2025 at 9:53 am
Dadgummit Marine Buc. Comparing our QB to Kirk Cousins. There you go again!
July 19th, 2025 at 9:56 am
Not all interceptions hurt but the propensity to throw interceptions will jump up and bite you sooner or later, that , along with fumbles .
July 19th, 2025 at 10:05 am
Hi Kenton.
I prefer Baker over Cousins.
I actually like Baker but I’m not wearing pewter colored glasses… lol.
If Baker can reduce the fumbles and INTs he is on his way to $50M+ a year contract.
Go Bucs!
July 19th, 2025 at 10:09 am
Marine Buc … ‘Last season Mayfield was tied with Kirk Cousins for a league-leading 16 interceptions. Cut those in half, the Bucs likely win two or more games.’
I’m sure that the ‘rabid Baker Bros’ felt that you were sticking up for Kirk Cousins over their champion; kinda like David vs Goliath. Gotta watch out for those slingshots.
Baker threw 3 INTs in 1 game (Saints 1st game) … we won because we laid 51 pts on them and Baker threw 4 TDs. Kinda the ‘bad with the good’?
Baker threw 2 INTs in 4 games … we went 2-2 (beat Panthers & Raiders, but lost to the Ravens & Falcons 2nd game). The Ravens flat-out whooped us, but Baker actually had a good game against the Falcons (completed 37-of-50 for 74% and threw 3 TDs to go with his 2 INTs … that one was a team loss in many ways).
Baker threw 1 INT in 5 games … we went 3-2 in those games (beat Lions, Chargers & Saints 2nd game, but lost to Broncos & Cowboys). Broncos flat-out whooped us, and no one apparently told us we had a game against the Cowboys in Prime Time that Sunday night).
But Baker also had 7 games in which he threw 0 INTs … Bucs went 4-3 in those 7 games (beat the Commanders, Eagles, Giants & Panthers 2nd game, but lost to the Falcons 1st game, Chiefs & 49ers).
All-in-all it looks to me like Baker’s INTs didn’t specifically lose us any games last season; IOW we still had a chance to win after any of his INTs. Hard to say definitively though because you never know what MIGHT have happened.
July 19th, 2025 at 10:13 am
Just kidding Marine Buc. I’m fairly certain we’ll throw less picks this year but Baker was fumbling the ball too much last year. We had a real good tailback back in high school. Big and fast. But he would fumble the ball about every other game. My brother was our QB and a good wrestler with a bit of a mean streak. We tried everything with Billy(our tailback) to cut down on the fumbles. Made him carry the ball home and formed player tunnels with the rest of team trying to knock it loose. Nothing worked until halfway through our senior season Billy fumbled and this time it cost us a game. In the locker room after the game it took 2 or 3 of us to pull Kevin (my brother) off of Billy. He didn’t fumble the rest of the season. If we try that method to get Baker to quit fumbling we’d have a few guys we could use to be the enforcer. I think I’d choose Luke Goedeke. That may just solve a few of our ball security issues.
July 19th, 2025 at 10:42 am
his picks were mostly a case of him not seeing the db
July 19th, 2025 at 11:04 am
@ DR
As usual your analysis is spot on.
If Baker can reduce the mistakes the Bucs will be a force to be reckoned with this season.
I would also like to see Baker improve his down field accuracy and slide when running rather than emulating the great Buc – Mike Alstott…
July 19th, 2025 at 11:07 am
@ Kenton
All good buddy.
July 19th, 2025 at 11:24 am
Last season we had too many giveaways
Interceptions and funbles
July 19th, 2025 at 11:40 am
Marine Buc … Admit it; you loved watching A-Train run though people. Kinda like watching John Lynch tackle through people. Lordy I miss those days.
July 19th, 2025 at 11:42 am
Lakeland Buc … ‘Last season we had too many giveaways’.
You’re exactly right Lakeland; a MINUS 5 Turnover Differential is not a good look.
Of course, giveaways is only HALF the problem. Our 12 INTs on the season was very very poor. Bucs can (and will) do better this season.
July 19th, 2025 at 11:45 am
Kenton Smith … ‘we’d have a few guys we could use to be the enforcer. I think I’d choose Luke Goedeke.’
Luke is far more likely to beat the snot out of any defender who dared to reciver one of Baker’s fumbles. He’s Baker’s ultimate protector.
July 19th, 2025 at 11:46 am
Those stats above?
Buffalo?
Cleveland?
Both “WOW!”… in very different ways.
Had a lot to do with their seasons.
July 19th, 2025 at 11:53 am
DR – splendid analysis. I knew about the “clumps” but am surprised about the W-L ratios laid against the clumps.
In any event, it would seem everyone agrees, Baker needs to throw fewer picks, and Bucky and White need to be coached up on situational football. Bucky’s fumble against Atlanta and Rachaad’s fumble against the Cowboys were coffin nails, at the worst possible times.
July 19th, 2025 at 12:32 pm
Defense Rules,
The fumbles happened at crucial moments of the games
Bucky fumble against the Falcons
Rachaad fumble against the Cowboys
Baker fumble against Washington
July 19th, 2025 at 12:45 pm
@ DR
“Marine Buc … Admit it; you loved watching A-Train run though people.”
Absolutely = one of my favorite Buc memories of all time…
However – I don’t want my QB emulating the A-train.
LOL.
Please slide Baker – we need you to stay healthy for at least 20 games this season.
July 19th, 2025 at 1:13 pm
DR and Marine Buc and LakelandBuc. Even we newer Bucs fans, being football fans, know the vigor with which Alstott and Lynch played the game. DR says Goedecke won’t do as the fumble prevention enforcer. Maybe Lynch and Alstott could just have a zoom meeting with Baker, Racchad and Bucky. That would probably do the trick. In fact Alstott can do it by himself. Don’t trust Lynch as long as he’s with the sinking Niners.
July 19th, 2025 at 1:19 pm
Aqualung … One of my analytical tendencies is to ‘average things out’, and very often that’s a problem. Like Baker throwing 16 picks in 17 games … an average of 1 pick per game. Yes, BUT … that doesn’t even begin to explain the impact of his INTs since he threw 12 of those 16 INTs (75%) in only 6 games (barely 35% of our season).
That would make it appear that there’s a ‘good Baker’ (only 4 INTs in 11 games) and a ‘bad Baker’ (12 INTs in 6 games). And yet, we won 4 of those 6 games. Hmmm, gets one wondering if ‘bad Baker’ lucked out. Nah, the rest of the TEAM rose up and compensated up for those INTs. Good teams do that.
Hopefully Baker will appreciably cut down on those 16 INTs this season, say to the 8-10 range. I’m a little concerned though that Grizz may end up giving Baker a lot more ‘flexibility’ than Coen did to adjust calls, etc at the line, and that MAY end up causing Baker to put undue pressure on himself this year. And that COULD potentially backfire.
July 19th, 2025 at 1:38 pm
Cleveland is -22. Wow lol
July 19th, 2025 at 1:48 pm
Just stop turning the ball over, period. All this who was to blame, this one wasn’t as bad as that one. They’re all bad, you’re literally taking point opportuties away.
We had a bunch of one score games that we lost. That 16 interception counts for 48-112 points of offense we couldn’t score because the wrong team came down with a Baker Mayfield pass.
It’s not complex, I don’t care about his arm strength or play style if he’s leaving points on the field, as BA would put it.
July 19th, 2025 at 1:55 pm
In four straight seasons, Trask has never thrown a single INT. Bucs should consider making the move.
July 19th, 2025 at 2:58 pm
How on earth did Jamis throw 30 ints ,,,, I mean 16 is a lot and we get on Bake for it,,, the 30/30 club is indeed a limited club
July 19th, 2025 at 3:56 pm
This is a stat that really matters!
Notice how the general trend is that teams who lead in this stat also make the playoffs. If you go back year after year I’d bet you’ll see the same.
I hope (and expect) that Baker will not lead the league in picks this year 🤞🏼
AND I expect our ILBs, corners and safeties will heed coaches call for more takeaways and produce. We just need to stay relatively healthy and our pass rush needs to get pressure without sending half of the D on blitz’s.
We’re very close….. Well know soon enough if we’ve turned the corner. I’d love to see us pick Pennix off a couple of times to get the party started 😎
July 19th, 2025 at 5:05 pm
Right on DR. Most surprising was how the Bucs won in spite of Baker’s interception clumps. We wouldn’t generally expect clumps of more picks thrown to correlate to more wins.
July 19th, 2025 at 5:25 pm
I don’t really care about the turnovers MOST OF THE TIME so long as you’re scoring points, AND not committing huge mistakes at the biggest moments.
The only turnover all season I have an issue with is the fumbling in the 4th quarter of the playoff game vs the Redskins after the defense made a huge goal line stop and gave the offense the ball back with a chance to go up two scores. If Baker can come up big in big moments, then he’ll get a huge giant new deal. If Baker continues to collapse in the biggest moments, I’m not sure what the Bucs do, but it will cost Baker upwards of a $100-million dollars.
The pressure is on for Baker this year, lets hope he can finally come through when it matters.
July 19th, 2025 at 5:29 pm
On a different note, I was playing Mutant Football League earlier, and they give everyone fake names that play off their real names since it’s not licensed. For example, Baker is called Baker Mindfield, meh, not one of the better ones. But the name for Kyle Trask made me laugh, they have him listed as Vile Trash. I don’t even think I’ve heard the Baker Boi(s), who hate Trask because they view him as a threat, I don’t think I’ve even seen them be that mean before.
July 19th, 2025 at 5:38 pm
There were several professional football analysts “analyzing” Bakers 2024 games. In the end their professional opinion was, with as many passes and touchdowns as Baker threw, 16 interceptions was nothing to get too excited about. According to them, 16 was totally acceptable. Everybody has their opinion and that was theirs. Baker idolized Brett Favre and Favre threw a lot more than 16 numerous times. He averaged 17.6 a season. Baker averages 12.8. On average Baker throws 5 less a year than Favre. Given all that it would still be awful nice to see it down under 10, but I wouldn’t put much money on that one. But, miracles do happen every day.
July 19th, 2025 at 5:56 pm
Munch, I’m sure the coaches know exactly how many times Baker has “collapsed” 😂 and how many times he has played better than anybody else in playoff games-every year. I’m sure they are going to take into account your ridiculous incessant complaining about the same old incident. And your constant emotional mooching and doing your best at dividing the team. I’m sure they are rating your opinion really high-Poison
In fact, we will know exactly how much they value your opinion when Baker gets his new contract. We shall see…
July 19th, 2025 at 6:13 pm
DefenseRules,
Thank you for a sensible analysis of Mayfield INT’s. A bunch of fat guys on couches raise hell about INT’s but don’t know much else about football. Coaches like T Bowles conveniently point to INT’s to excuse pathetic defense. Let’s be clear; the Bucs pass defense the last couple of year was beyond pathetic to a lighter shade of pale. Mayfield has thrown some interceptions in his 7 year NFL career including 16 last year. The patron saint of QB’s, Mr.Tom Brady, threw 13 INT’s 3x in his first 7 NFL years. Collectively, Mayfield has thrown a few more in 7 years than Brady. Adjusted for total passes thrown in 7 years it isn’t statistically significant. Hoping Mayfield limits INT total to 10 this year. For all the fat, old, ex band members who watch Bucs football, INT’s are going to happen. Get over it and relax. INT’s are just part of the game. To compare Mayfield with Jameis Watson is just absurd.
July 19th, 2025 at 7:20 pm
If the Bucs could have gotten Ndomukn Suh (butchered that spelling I’m sure),and had him have a little talk with Jameis about the picks who knows? I know if I threw a dumb pick I wouldn’t want to pass too close to Suh coming off the field. Yeah, if Suh had come around a few years sooner Jameis might have still been here.
July 19th, 2025 at 7:25 pm
Suh.
July 19th, 2025 at 7:47 pm
“According to them, 16 was totally acceptable.“
Those guys are losers. Teams that win the turnover battle win 70% of the time meaning teams who lose the turnover battle win 30% of the time. There’s literally math dedicate to showing how the turnover margin erodes your chances at winning the game you’re playing.
“Mayfield has thrown some interceptions in his 7 year NFL career including 16 last year.“
He and Josh Allen are literally are 1 & 2 in thrown interceptions since both have been in the league. Some? 2nd most in the NFL since being drafted. >100 starts and he’ll still throw into triple coverage because he can’t read the field on a snap to snap basis lol
How times have changed. If you like the QB enough, just turn a blind eye to came changing, drive halting plays.
Last 2 playoff games ended on Baker Mayfield turnovers, but sure no big deal
July 19th, 2025 at 8:59 pm
Keton. If the bucs would have just given Jamies a running game and stop telling him to throw 45 to 50 times a game up the field he would still be here.
July 19th, 2025 at 10:08 pm
Oneilbuc, if my teams QB waltzed into a grocery store and ripped off a bunch of seafood I’d have had a rough time ever backing him again. Talent and good sense are 2 different things. It helps to have both.
July 19th, 2025 at 10:18 pm
And Warren Brooks Lynch, so Mayfield and Allen have the most picks in the NFL since they got there? They may just play each other in this year’s Super Bowl. Better tell our secondary there will be easy pickings so get ready. What I really meant to say Warren Brooks Lynch is your comment “he’ll still throw into triple coverage because he can’t read the field on a snap to snap basis” qualifies you for village idiot of the year. Odds on favorite for the all decade team.
July 19th, 2025 at 10:53 pm
Actually Warren you might be the loser and don’t know it. One who thinks he’s an analyst but is just delusional🤔 Let me see here, Favre threw 23, 23, 29 ,21, 22 & 24 interceptions and oh yes he is a HoFer. So apparently, the NFL doesnt get too excited about interceptions, ya think? Played in 2 superbowls and won one. That’s not a bad resume. Baker hasn’t thrown near that many. You can quote averages all day but out of Bakers interceptions only a few resulted in points scored, so averages mean nothing with the interceptions in 2024. Of course turnovers are not good. You don’t need statistics to tell you that. But what matters is, did those hurt the team and Bakers in 2024 didn’t. Next year it might be different. He considers himself a gunslinger like Favre. That’s good and bad but it is what it is. I do wish he would get them down where he would be ranked in the top 5 where he belongs but maybe Baker wouldn’t be Baker. Thank goodness the coaches get to decide all this and not some guy that likes to talk tough about things he knows nothing about. Some of you people seem to forget it’s a team that wins and it’s a team that loses. Like munch was told, we will see how much the coaches think about Bakers playoff record come new contract time. You are one of those guys that just don’t want to hear the truth. Like when Bowles said “Baker IS the reason we are even in the playoffs”. When you are the reason the team is in the playoffs and you have the BEST PASSER RATING in the playoffs in 2024 you kind of should maybe concentrate on that accomplishment and not the DEBATABLE fumble over and over again until you’ve made people sick from all your whining and complaining like a little spoiled brat. With people like you we would never win a superbowl. Try and bring something to the conversations that actually helps the effort IF you really are a fan.
July 20th, 2025 at 12:20 am
Davyboy Says:
July 19th, 2025 at 5:56 pm
Munch, I’m sure the coaches know exactly how many times Baker has “collapsed” 😂 and how many times he has played better than anybody else in playoff games-every year.
——-
Lets see…
2 minutes left in Detroit, has the ball in his hands, with the game on the line, goes out and immediately throws an INT and loses the game.
7 minutes to go vs the Redskins, the defense makes a huge goal line stop, gives the ball back to the offense with a chance to run some clock and go up two scores and put the game away. Baker immediately fumbles the ball, loses the game.
Yeah, I’ll stick with facts instead of the fantasy Baker Boi world you cupcakes live in. Lets just hope Baker can finally come through in a big moment, I’ll be more than happy as a Bucs fan to see him finally get that deserved big contract if he can.
July 20th, 2025 at 1:15 am
I’m so glad you repeated your extremely limited knowledge of those 2 plays, A G A I N. Especially since the professional analysts and real life coach on PFF disagree with you 100%. You’re on the outside looking in on this deal. But munch is smarter than all the coaches AND analysts arent you? Even if you were right, you don’t have to be an emotional vampire, sucking all the life and energy out of everybody else and replacing it with drama and division. Why so negative munch? You just can’t stand it that Baker plays better than everyone else in the playoffs, can you? Bakers top passer rating of 146 in this years playoffs just rips you don’t it?? You have to find something to tear him down. You’re that guy that constantly complains about something, anything to get attention and tear the good down. Well, I think we are going to win in 2025 regardless of you. You can continue to try and divide the team but they know the truth and will win inspite of your loser attitude. Nothing but poison
July 20th, 2025 at 4:45 am
“2 minutes left in Detroit, has the ball in his hands, with the game on the line, goes out and immediately throws an INT and loses the game.”
Began and ended the game with turnovers, but yea no big deal it’s not like we needed those 6-14 points to win the game.
@Kenton
Try and keep it football related, and stay on subject. Calling me names isn’t going to lower Baker Mayfields’ tendency to give the ball away. You can absolutely compare two NFL QBs
July 20th, 2025 at 5:13 am
“Last two playoff games ended on Baker Mayfield turnovers”. You said that Warren Brooks Lynch. That’s not how the Washington game ended. Definitely your new nickname fits. That should be your new handle. Warren the village idiot.
July 20th, 2025 at 5:43 am
We lost the game off the back of that fumble, apparently how the game works is escaping you but when you have the ball and the opportunity to build a lead. Turning the ball over on your own 15 and giving the opposing team the ball in the red zone is ball game.
Stick & Stones Kenton. I don’t even take it personal. I know you like Baker enough to defend his honor and good on you, but now every critique I have of Mayfield and I’m going to direct it directly at you. So you can protect his honor as a grown man.
July 20th, 2025 at 8:06 am
Too many ints for sure. Baker is a gunslinger. The good gunslingers get lots of TDs and ints. 10 of his ints were in wins. 2024 was a new system and I’m sure Coen and Baker tested things at times. Baker threw to lots of guys which proved to develop at least a couple of newer guys into dependable targets. I look at pass completions, TDs, interceptions all as team offensive stats, even though they are posted as QB and receiver stats. There are tons of variables that go into each of those stats. Baker owns the 16 ints and the fumble. No doubt reducing that number is a top priority for him. I’m sure he has watched film of every one over and over again. My guess is none of you all can be as tough on him as he is on himself. Stats are a starting point for analysis and improvement. He knows the guys better and they know him better. He has a more stout receiving crew and I expect less picks and an explosive offense.
I’m sure every QB in the NFL had awful plays that hurt their team last year. Baker is not perfect but he is our QB. I like to learn from the past not dwell on it. I prefer looking forward to looking back.
July 20th, 2025 at 11:19 am
Same old broken record, stuck in the same old groove, just making the same irritating, senseless noise. No one enjoys it, it helps no one, it just
d r a g s everybody and everything down. All the momentum we have building and getting the positivity it takes to do great things. But there are always the haters that hate and they will always be with us, unfortunately. They don’t have a clue of what it takes to really win and they NEVER will, children. We will win INSPITE of them, not because of them.