Run Game Will Be More Challenging Sunday
October 31st, 2026
Find a pass game — now!
You may have heard this before, but the Bucs’ passing game is atrocious.
Hey, it’s awesome the Bucs won two of their last three games. That’s because the Bucs bludgeoned both the Cowboys and Stinking Panthers on the ground.
And they should have. Dallas (No. 27) and Carolina (No. 31) have two of the worst rushing offenses in the game. Those two defenses give up 4.7 and 4.8 yards per carry, respectively.
That Bucs running game will get a decent test Sunday. The Dixie Chicks have the 10th-best run defense, allowing 3.8 yards a carry.
Atlanta’s defense is soft against the pass. The Dixie Chicks allow 271.4 yards a game (29th) through the air.
Even with the Bucs obliterating both Dallas and Carolina on the ground — both road games — the Bucs offense has the lowest number of explosive plays in the NFL. That’s a pretty glaring tell that you have a poultry scat offense.
And for the people who beat the drum for EPA — Joes does not — the Bucs have the lowest EPA of a passing offense in the league.
If Atlanta was smart — and Joe’s not a huge Kevin Stefanski guy — he’d load the box, even with a stingy run defense, and basically dare the Bucs to throw.
Bucs offensive coordinator Zac Robinson better have a passing offense tomorrow, or at least a reasonable facsimile thereof, because Joe doubts the Bucs can blast their way to victory on the ground like they have their past two wins.
The season is on the line. If Robinson can’t find a passing game today, he better start updating his LinkedIn profile because it is unlikely he or his colleagues will still have offices at One Buc Palace come the middle of January.
October 31st, 2026 at 12:11 am
I see otton having a big day….
October 31st, 2026 at 12:31 am
Here’s how the chess works. Atlanta knows that the Bucs have run the ball great in their wins, so they will load the box. BUT, they know that Robinson and Bowles know that, so the Bucs will come out in a 3TE 2RB set, then shift to empty and spread the field wide. Atlanta will have to respect the wide spread. Except that one of the TEs will be Tez disguised as Durham with a lot of extra padding, and he’ll scamper past everyone and catch 5 touchdown bombs.
The Falcons won’t know what hit them. The element of surprise is a Todd Bowles specialty.
October 31st, 2026 at 12:46 am
I was just thinking about how my Bucs can let me down because this has been predictable for the last couple of seasons. You make us believe but then the next week you make us wanna forget. I’m not for that Buc life. If you play the game of football with no money you strive to out work all the other kids. Be more crazy than they, out work them all week, eat pain more then they. You figure out a way to win the game because yes excuses are for losers. Go Bucs!
October 31st, 2026 at 1:35 am
Hahahahaha
Ranks? EPA?
For crying out loud. We are led by “we do what we do”.
Absolutely 0 chance that the Bucs aren’t run heavy tomorrow. Only way they go to the passing game before the 4th quarter is if they are down by more than 2 scores early.
I hope I’m wrong but we all know the playbook. Car salesmen in the secondary and the Bucs didn’t have a gameplan to let Tom Brady air it early and often.
Expect conservative, ball control playcalling, a lot of punts and the expectation that the D will bail the team out.
If Atlanta is smart they load the box with 1 high free safety on defense and on offense they build the gameplan around Pitts. If the WRs clear space and Pitts isn’t there, Bijan is on a wheel or angle route. Pass it 60 times and see if Bowles adjusts.
October 31st, 2026 at 2:20 am
Green Bay has allowed 3.9 yards per carry compared to Atlanta which has allowed 3.8 yards per carry.
Green Bay has allowed 6.2 yards per pass attempt while Atlanta has allowed 6.6 yards per pass attempt.
Those numbers for Atlanta are pretty close to the numbers for Green Bay.
The Bucs rushed Green Bay 31 times and averaged 4.5 yards per carry. The Bucs also averaged 4.5 yards per pass attempt completing 19 of 27 passes.
If you again net 4.5 yards per play both rushing and passing, on a wet field, the Bucs are better running the ball more, controlling the clock, and trying to wear down the Falcons defense.
It should be a big day for Otton in motion and Ko Kieft leading at FB with lots of inside zone, duo and power runs.
When the Bucs do pass the ball, the receivers should make hard breaks early in their routes. If the receiver goes down, Baker has to go to his next read or throw the ball away. If the defender goes slipping and sliding, Baker has to see it and hit it. Tez and Godwin should be early reads.
October 31st, 2026 at 2:27 am
And, maybe once, when it is raining hard, the Bucs could actually had the ball off to Kieft hitting the A gap.
If Kieft keeps his head down, the defenders will likely be so busy trying to dodge Kieft to get to Bucky that they may never see that Kieft has the ball. But, do it somewhere unexpected like the 50 yard line, not at the goal line.