Bucs Blow Up “Middle Class” Quarterback Market
September 9th, 2026
Reason to smile.
Last night Joe noticed Tristan Wirfs, Luke Goedeke, Jalen McMillan and Ko Kieft took to social media to celebrate how Baker Mayfield is locked in as your Bucs starting quarterback through 2029.
And while Mayfield, the Bucs and Mayfield’s Bucs teammates may have popped champagne bottles — but not too many, they’ve all got practice this morning — many suits of NFL have-nots might be staring at the walls alone, with a glass of Pappy Van Winkle 15 on the rocks trying to figure out how the hell they are going to afford their mid-tier quarterback — if they even have one.
Suddenly, the price for Sam Darnold has skyrocketed like Micron Technology stock last winter.
Mayfield, Conor Orr of SI.com typed, had the Bucs by the balls. The Bucs are, Orr typed, a mini-version of the Steelers: always a playoff contender since Tom Brady showed up.
But Orr asks without Mayfield, what are the Bucs?
That’s why Tampa Bay had no choice but to pacify Mayfield, just like it did a few weeks ago by extending the similarly disgruntled Vita Vea at the age of 31. Both players are good, don’t get me wrong. But I wonder if guaranteeing Mayfield—in terms of an EPA per play and completion percentage over expectation composite, the 14th-best quarterback between 2023 and ’25—$150 million was in the best interest of the team moving forward.
In doing so, the Buccaneers fascinatingly isolated the only player left in this middle-class hive, which was once populated by both Mayfield and Geno Smith, and last year’s Super Bowl winner, Sam Darnold.
The Joe typing this here story had long been in favor of Mayfield playing out his contract the way Mayfield and the Bucs collapsed after the bye — even though Joe understood the Bucs really wanted to wrap up the Mayfield negotiations and had no interest in drafting a quarterback come April.
So do we really know that the post-bye Mayfield last season won’t raise his ugly head again? Apparently, the Bucs were convinced that the second half of last season was a fluke and that the 2024 version of Mayfield and the pre-bye Mayfield last season are the same guy who shows up this fall and beyond.
September 9th, 2026 at 5:29 am
The NFL’s quarterback middle class used to mean $35 million. Now it means your owner needs a liquidity event.
September 9th, 2026 at 5:33 am
lol
I remember when People really watched the games, and understood what was needed to be successful.
Those days are gone.
Mayfield has had to learn a complete new offensive system every single year he’s been here. Snow offensive Coordinator every year.
That’s insanity. Only mismanaged perineal losers like the bungling browns are that inefficient.
Last years the 3 interior Offensive lineman were horrible. They didn’t belong in the NFL. That included Graham Barton. He looked good at Lt early- but that seemed to cause him to totally regress at Center. The backup Guards were a carousel of incompetence.
A no one seems to notice that our WR depth was so bad- that we were starting a 7th round, and undrafted, rookies at WR.
That’s an Embarrassment. So many times Mayfield Threw the ball to where the WR should be, and the rookies were somewhere else. Lost.
That’s what happens with Rookies. That’s why you never start 2 rookies. Especially not some kids from the practice squad.
Even starting A 1st round pick, you want an experienced WR starting with him
Our rookie Offensive Coordinator last year was really bad. He killed our chances with predictable calls.
And despite that, Mayfield still managed to get us in position to win, in the 4th quarter.
Just to watch our inept defense give away the game.
Mayfield struggled in the last half of the Season??
Lmao.
He shoulda went to his 3rd probowl. Incredible that he could keep that Trash afloat.
Anyone who thinks Mayfield was even remotely responsible for last seasons fiasco, doesn’t know anything about football.
September 9th, 2026 at 5:38 am
Joe, the 55 million annually is a little deceiving. No one is mentioning this years salary that I believe is 37 million? Add that to his 165 million for 27, 28, 29, you get 202 million. So in reality he’s making 50.5 million annually for four years averaged out, no?
September 9th, 2026 at 5:49 am
Disagree with Conor’s take. They made a choice to sign him now as opposed to next year when the price would have been even higher. Good cap management in my opinion. Also, what’s with EPA play and expectation composite? Rear view hindsight gibberish in a poorly constructed sentence designed to make yourself sound more intelligent? Ah well, he lost me when he lumped Baker with Geno. Try harder.
September 9th, 2026 at 6:03 am
Only solace I have signing a mid QB for elite QB pay, and after 8 years in the league Baker had 1 great year, and 7 average to poor years, the last time he signed a contract, Baker exploded with that one great year, as Terrell Owen’s once said “He’s my quarterback”
September 9th, 2026 at 6:13 am
“So do we really know that the post-bye Mayfield last season won’t raise his ugly head again?“
It will, because it’s who he’s always been his entire career. Price has gone up, and so will the scrutiny. That is win me a SB money, and if not it’s a waste of money especially for a QB with Mayfields “intangibles”
September 9th, 2026 at 6:27 am
Broke out some extra PBR to celebrate last night.
September 9th, 2026 at 6:29 am
“One great year, 7 average years “. I think that proves that he has it in him just needs better OC and the proper talent around him. I believe he can get us to a superbowl with the right OC and a really good defense with a better HC. He wants to prove the world wrong so let’s see how it goes. Also, Geno? Really?
September 9th, 2026 at 6:31 am
“Middle Class”. Let’s get this straight. He’s had the opportunity to QB the worst 2 teams record wise in the history of the NFL over a 50 year period? And he’s made each of those teams contenders from the minute he walked in the door?
He got a fair deal. A couple years from now, he’ll be an average paid QB. But that doesn’t mean that he’ll be an average QB. That’s something he’s never been, and something he’ll never be.
Baker Mayfield is gonna be remembered as the QB of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers when his career is over. He may be our QB another 7 or 8 years. Nobody enjoys the game of football more than Baker.
No way we’re not contenders this season and every season that Baker leads the team out of that tunnel. Say what you want about last year, we were in the hunt through the last game.
September 9th, 2026 at 6:45 am
Hodad … ‘the 55 million annually is a little deceiving. in reality he’s making 50.5 million annually for four years averaged out, no?’
Folks can play with math & come up with a dozen different ways to rationalize it Hodad. For instance, Baker will have made $4 mil for 2-23, $100 mil for 2024-2026, and $165 mil for 2027-2029. So $269 mil for 7 years as the Bucs starting QB.
Divide the $269 by 7 years and that comes out to $38.4 per year.
Or apply a 10% inflation factor for each year, and it comes out to just about $28.5 mil per year.
I’m sure some statistician could figure out a formula where he’s actually making $1.75 per game or something like that. The bottom line though is that Baker just became a very wealthy 31-year old. Not bad.
September 9th, 2026 at 6:53 am
Pappy 15 *on the rocks* – sacrilege! Ice is for skirts, put some hair on your chest and drink your whiskey neat
September 9th, 2026 at 7:08 am
It’s a team friendly contract
Everyone is 😊😊😊
Now let’s focus on these 12 wins
September 9th, 2026 at 7:27 am
man they signed baker to a huge deal- i didn’t think they would do it and they did it, hope this does not come back to bite them in the a**…. my advice to richie rich: don’t throw the ball unless the guy is wide a** open otw hand off 30 times a game… his interceptions kill us every time -mark my word!!! the only way we beat the Bengals on Sunday is if he does not throw interceptions
September 9th, 2026 at 7:31 am
… Rocks?
September 9th, 2026 at 7:31 am
don’t trust Zac either, falcons could never score points in a dink and dunk offense, after watching college football all weekend i long for the no risk it no biscuit days, freaking go long to tez or hurst this Sunday just to loosen it up
September 9th, 2026 at 7:50 am
“2027 is a great year for qb’s! Just draft one!”
HOW many #1’s have the Browns, Panthers, Jets spent on qb’s?
September 9th, 2026 at 7:58 am
mj. “mark my word!!! the only way we beat the Bengals on Sunday is if he does not throw interceptions.”
So Tom Brady threw 3! interceptions in the second half against the Packers in the playoff game during the Bucs Super Bowl run 6 years ago?
Somehow, mj, your conclusions about our opening game don’t carry much weight. I’ve seen Baker toss 3 picks while simultaneously hanging 50+ points.
We’d rather never turn the ball over. We had less turnovers than 27 teams in the NFL last year. How’d that work out for us?
September 9th, 2026 at 7:58 am
Do find it interesting how the issues and overall lack of consistency & success (winning a participation trophy aka the NFC South aside) over the last 4 years get easily explained away each year without any accountability to the major cast of characters.
September 9th, 2026 at 8:02 am
Capt. Tim said it best, great way to put it
September 9th, 2026 at 8:05 am
Spot on as usual, Capt. Tim.
September 9th, 2026 at 8:13 am
Funny you should mention Pappy Van Winkle. I went to a fund raiser recently at my grandsons school. Some dude paid $4,500 for a bottle that was being auctioned. Blew my mind.
September 9th, 2026 at 8:18 am
If Baker is mid tier, so are many others in the 50 million club and Baker is better than many of those guys and so is Sam Darnold for that matter. As of right now, if any of those other guys contracts were up for being renewed, the new price is already 60m and in another couple years, even more.
Baker played while too injured twice in his career. In 2021 and 2025. He should have had surgery as soon as the injury happened in 2021, which was week 2 of the season. Last year, he should have sat out at least a minimum of two games and probably more. Both times, things didn’t go well. Both times, someone should have sat him. Interestingly, in both those seasons, he came out the gates playing extremely well before the injuries happened.
I don’t think it’s likely that a quarterback can play like Mayfield did in the first half of the season and then all of sudden turn into Mr Hyde. His ceiling is still there. If there is a legitimate worry, it is the question of whether he is injury prone and, if so, can it be mitigated by adjusting his style of play. He alrr st o needs to be protected well.
September 9th, 2026 at 8:19 am
How can anyone not think the end of last year was due to injuries . Trying to think Baker all of sudden forgot how to play football is the dumbest thing I’ve heard. How many damn times does the dude have to prove himself? This Joe typing is a moron and should pull for another team.
September 9th, 2026 at 8:21 am
Paying a QB who loses 4 games in a row every season, is baffling
Rewarding a player who engineered a 2-7 finish is a clown move
September 9th, 2026 at 8:30 am
Capt. Tim….
When one says that only perennial losers change offensive coordinators each year — that is wrong.
The Eagles have had 7 OC’s in Jalen Hurts 7 years including 2 his rookie year.
Last year they severe injuries to Lane Johnson, Cam Jurgens, and Landon Dickerson on their OL (with losing their center — Jason Kelce — the year before) and finished 11-6.
But I did LMAO when you said that Baker Mayfield should have gone to the pro bowl last year.
By the way, their 3rd receiver was someone called Jahan Dotson
September 9th, 2026 at 8:31 am
Nailed it, Tim. I’ve made several similar points in the last few months. You did a great job covering all at once. QB’s under constant duress have a very difficult time outperforming others relatively safe in the pocket. We will win lots of games with our starting O-line in there!
September 9th, 2026 at 8:41 am
Darnold is vastly superior to Mayfield. He’s should be able to demand $60+ million a year based on his play, not fake hype.
The only good thing about this contract for Mayfield is that it virtually guarantees that Licht will not draft a QB in the next few years.
Once he’s gone we can talk about drafting a real QB. For now we are stuck with Mr Mid QB.
All hype, zero substance or tangible results. That’s who Baker Mayfield truly is.
September 9th, 2026 at 8:45 am
You can criticize and hate the deal all you want, if the Bucs werent going to pay him, some other team would. And what exactly is behind door number 2!? The Bucs havent drafted and developed a QB in 50 years.
The NFL is a QB driven league. To have any chance at winning, teams need a somewhat capable QB. Mayfield is above this tier. So instead of poking holes in the deal abiut a few milly here and there, why dont we focus on helping him succeed. You know, like having a consistent OC for MAAYYYBBEE back to back seasons?! The best QBs are in the same systems for years
September 9th, 2026 at 8:47 am
“Paying a QB who loses 4 games in a row every season, is baffling
Rewarding a player who engineered a 2-7 finish is a clown move”
Not realizing that there far greater factors in that collapse
1. garbage oline
2. a defense that couldn’t get into the same zip code as an opposing Qb
3. And a defense where no lead was safe and could never be counted on
4. A head coach who wanted to win with said defense, even though it sucked.
But yeah, it’s all Mayfield’s fault.
Jesus you people are simplistic.
September 9th, 2026 at 8:52 am
@StormyinFL
You forget the late game and 4th quarter turnovers by Baker against ATL, Carolina, the Aints and Miami
He had his hands ALL OVER the 2-7 finish
September 9th, 2026 at 9:39 am
The Bake Show is back!!! Hope he doesn’t lose that chip on his shoulder !
September 9th, 2026 at 9:54 am
Let’s hope the defense is so good he no longer feels the need to take on tacklers.
September 9th, 2026 at 10:12 am
Dtownva. If we’re going to hope, let’s take it a step further.
All of us football guys around here know what wins championships. You say let’s hope the defense is so good he no longer feels the need to take on tacklers.
How about our defense, these next 4 years, and starting this year, dominates like Buccaneer defenses of the past? I hope that happens.
September 9th, 2026 at 10:31 am
@Cappitan Tim, yeah I agree with you 100. It was also painfully obvious how hurt Baker was in the final games. He was having trouble making 25–30 yard passes, be it shoulder or knee, the strength was gone. Bake can launch it 70 yards on a good day and probably 50 standing still. I’m really pulling for Bowles this year, but if they had kept Liam Coen instead, last season may have been different. Even the injuries may have been different because change of practice routines. Coen is young (40) and has a bright future. Baker and Coen clicked. Seemingly small decisions can have huge repercussions. Oh and the Jags going 13-4 from 4-13 kinda says it all. Now we’ve emptied the bilge, pumped out the lazarette and hopefully right the vessel.
September 9th, 2026 at 11:10 am
“all of us football guys…” Ever watch North Dallas 40? Or better yet; ever read the book
September 9th, 2026 at 11:11 am
Hodad Says:
September 9th, 2026 at 5:38 am
Joe, the 55 million annually is a little deceiving. No one is mentioning this years salary that I believe is 37 million? Add that to his 165 million for 27, 28, 29, you get 202 million. So in reality he’s making 50.5 million annually for four years averaged out, no?
__________________
Yes, but that extra $5 million per year over the next three years could mean we have to skimp on player quality in other areas.
For example, this year $5 million is the difference between Jalen Ramsey and Carton Davis. Not that I didn’t like Davis, but Ramsey is definitely the better corner.
September 9th, 2026 at 12:03 pm
The reason the suits on the other teams are staring at the wall is that the Glazers have taken Baker off the market for the next four years and they can’t fantasize about signing him for the foreseeable future.
Allegers say that Baker is only a .500 quarterback. I say he’s a quarterback who takes .200 teams and lifts them to .500.
September 9th, 2026 at 12:14 pm
Dilfer won a Super Bowl so there’s that …., so much for a stiff
September 9th, 2026 at 12:20 pm
Geno, Jalen Hurts had a defense.
Bucs were 6-2. Put the Eagles D and Fangio on the Bucs last year and pretty sure they get to 11 as well.
Ridiculous comparison. The Eagles have had such a good roster that Hurts has simply had to be a game manager. He’s in the Foles, Flacco, B.Johnson tier of SB winning QBs. If Hurts was a good QB (throwing the ball to any spot on the field) he wouldn’t have had a disgruntled WR1 the last 2 years. If Hurts OC isn’t scheming WRs open for easy enough throws he’s toast, last year their line crumbled, the run game didn’t work as well and their offense did very little.
September 9th, 2026 at 12:23 pm
Cosmo, hahaha Darnold is vastly superior! Recency bias is crazy with some of you.
Hasn’t been 10 months since Baker went into Darnold house missing OL and WRs and outdueled him, putting up 38 points. I think Darnold threw a game losing pick towards the end of that one. SMH.
September 9th, 2026 at 1:30 pm
If anyone deserves a skyrocketed market value, it’s Sam Darnold.
Two years in a row 13+ wins and in 100 range for QBRating. Oh, he did win a freaking SB.
Are we judging people because they are not Josh Allen, Joe Burrows or Patrick Mahomes and not the actual results these past two years? I don’t care he was on the bench 3 years ago and had stints in dysfunctional teams like Carolina and Jets. Or Browns in Baker’s case. Pay these guys for what they’ve done the last 2-3 years. Not impression.