BSPN: Bank On Baker Mayfield Season Passing Yards Over
August 2nd, 2026
Easy money.
You’ve heard it; Joe’s heard it. An aggrieved and aggravated Baker Mayfield will carry his anger to the football field on Sundays (and Monday night and Thursday night) to torch defenses because he thinks he got the shaft by the Bucs.
And if they want him back next year, it will cost them.
That’s good for the Bucs (unless you are a Team Glazer accountant) and good for gamblers, per Liz Loza of BSPN.
In an article on the best bets for the Bucs, Loza claims a lead pipe lock is for Mayfield to ring up over 3,599 yards passing this season.
Best bet: Baker Mayfield passing yards OVER 3,599.5 (+100)
Not much went right for Mayfield in 2025. He played through a litany of injuries (PCL, MCL and AC joint sprains), was largely without his two most senior receivers and was under the instruction of a first-time offensive coordinator. Despite the numerous obstacles, Mayfield routinely put the team on his back, seemingly willed production into existence and cleared the above line by 90 yards. He’s in a significantly better position this time around, as he is reunited with Robinson, is fully healthy and playing behind a top-five offensive line.
Well, as excellent as Mayfield was before the bye, Mayfield routinely didn’t put the team on his back in the final nine games. That’s why the Bucs gagged away a playoff berth.
But hey, Joe tends to believe Mayfield will have a big year because he is p!ssed off and because he should have a healthy offensive line. Or at least, a much healthier line.
And Mayfield does have a history of rising to the occasion when folks doubt him.
Just FYI, Mayfield’s worst year for passing yards with Tampa Bay was last year when he threw for 3,693 yards.
August 2nd, 2026 at 10:05 am
I agree baker with a chip on shoulder plus another prove it type of contract year like his first year with bucs. and a coordinator that is more in line with coen than last years
August 2nd, 2026 at 10:11 am
I said it here weeks ago that im pounding the over on all Baker Props!$$$ and this was before the slight on contract terms…He is gonna want to show Evans he backed the wrong horse in ole Purdy! He will face his old team that released him after finally getting them to the playoffs and won the game, will play agaisnt said coach twice a year now in the Falcons , and now will make the Bucs rue the day they didn’t lock him up long term before the season! Dudes chip on his shoulder just became a boulder! Look out
August 2nd, 2026 at 10:19 am
That Oline has to stay healthy intact!
Joe, How’s the “vibe” with and around the Head Coach??
August 2nd, 2026 at 10:32 am
How long do the chip last and when is he just going to be a good quarterback? It’s not called a chip going on year 9 at some point you guys just have to except he is what he is a average quarterback.
August 2nd, 2026 at 10:37 am
As Henry Hill said to Morris Kessler in Goodfellas:
“You’ll get your money. You just gotta stop busting b@lls!”
In the end he couldn’t stop and he got an ice pick to the back of the head.
Baker should take notice and act accordingly.
August 2nd, 2026 at 10:38 am
He’ll torch defenses, and then Todd’s defense will go out on the field with just under two minutes left and allow a 81 yard drive capped with a game winning touch down. Broken record Bowles
August 2nd, 2026 at 10:47 am
Yeah…I’ve always said that disgruntled players play better. ?
August 2nd, 2026 at 10:53 am
Oneilbuc. Baker is an average QB? In his first 8 years in the league he’s thrown 197 TD passes. In Tom Brady’s first 8 years in the league he threw 197 TD passes. In Joe Montana’s first 8 years in the league he chucked 141 TD passes. Aikman, in his career, I believe, didn’t throw 160 TD passes.
But Oneilbuccs, you aren’t the only one who derides Baker. NFL pundits always say he is inconsistent, barely a top half QB, and worse.
At the end of the day, though-20 years from now, people will remember the numbers. Whether it’s numbers of catches for receivers, or rushing numbers for running backs,or touchdown passes for QBs.
And Baker keeps on packing his lunch and going to work. And it’ll all shake out pretty the end.
August 2nd, 2026 at 10:55 am
I really like the Franchise and trade him scenario for 2027 with Baker or trade him to the Jets for one of their three 1st round picks. Then use Bucs and Jets 1st round picks to trade up to get a QB.
August 2nd, 2026 at 11:08 am
Kenton Smith,
I’d be all for extending Baker. He’s proven. Also, he’s probably a top 15 QB so a little better than average. Not a top 10 guy, but I’ll be pulling for him to be that this year. If he can stay healthy, he will perform. It’s when he gets beat up that his production starts slipping.
August 2nd, 2026 at 11:22 am
If I were a gambling man, that sounds like a very attractive bet!! Go for it!
August 2nd, 2026 at 11:26 am
all the haters, here you go….another one for you
August 2nd, 2026 at 11:26 am
“He played through a litany of injuries (PCL, MCL and AC joint sprains), was largely without his two most senior receivers and was under the instruction of a first-time offensive coordinator. ”
Something the haters forget.
August 2nd, 2026 at 11:34 am
“Scotty in Fat Antonio Says:
August 2nd, 2026 at 10:55 am
I really like the Franchise and trade him scenario for 2027 with Baker or trade him to the Jets for one of their three 1st round picks. Then use Bucs and Jets 1st round picks to trade up to get a QB.”
…………………………………………….
WHICH, like 2/3 of all 1st round QB picks, will be a bust
August 2nd, 2026 at 11:37 am
Mayfield showed last season the same thing he’s showed the entire time he’s been here so far. He’s either very good or he’s very bad and a lot of times he’s both in the same game.
August 2nd, 2026 at 11:37 am
SteveK. It’s all good. His numbers are top 15 all time QBs. Guys like you say current top 15. Which is a whale of a difference.
I will tell you I also heartily disagree with your statement about if he stays healthy. I believe it’s can the team stay healthy.
But it’s all good, like Marine Buc says. We’re all fans so we’re on each other’s side and it’s not real if we all agree on everything.
I do know the time is soon coming for the nut cutting, so we’ll probably get a clearer picture, soon. Gonna be one grind of a season and I believe we might just have the best bunch to take it on.
August 2nd, 2026 at 11:37 am
Unrelated: I’m totally drafting Baker as my QB this year. I sense production coming
August 2nd, 2026 at 11:40 am
I believe the per game over to be a better wager as it eliminates the severe injury problem with the season bet.
August 2nd, 2026 at 11:53 am
Oneilbuc Says:
August 2nd, 2026 at 10:32 am
How long do the chip last and when is he just going to be a good quarterback? It’s not called a chip going on year 9 at some point you guys just have to except he is what he is a average quarterback.
_____________________________________________________________
Great point. Why do you need a chip on your shoulder to play good ball?
But, there’s another side to that proverbial chip. It could cause him to try to do too much and end up making a lot of turnovers and holding the ball to long getting unnecessary sacks.
August 2nd, 2026 at 11:56 am
BucEmUp Says:
August 2nd, 2026 at 10:38 am
He’ll torch defenses, and then Todd’s defense will go out on the field with just under two minutes left and allow a 81 yard drive capped with a game winning touch down. Broken record Bowles
________________________________________________________________
I don’t see this year’s defense doing that. When we have Roberts and BRASWELL flashing in practice, there’s somethin mean brewing on that defense.
August 2nd, 2026 at 12:15 pm
Couch fan
Sounds like Jaboo
August 2nd, 2026 at 12:25 pm
I know one thing for sure…
Baker will lead the NFL in “moxie”.
7-10.
August 2nd, 2026 at 12:28 pm
Right now he’s the best chance for the team ….period the past is the past move on.. football in 2 weeks!
August 2nd, 2026 at 12:38 pm
QB that’s under contract loudly complaining about his team… another year of the backup QB as Tampa Bay’s most popular man.
August 2nd, 2026 at 12:41 pm
This “chip on the shoulder” crap is so stupid.
Yes. He’s ONLY going to play well because he’s go to “show them!”
Intellectual bereft low brow morons.
The tag is no threat because of the dead money. That’s also stupid.
August 2nd, 2026 at 1:08 pm
Moisty Boyy Smith please. Can you discern from your drama queen post what those qbs have that Moisty Boyy Baker doesn’t????? All the great stats in the regular season mean nothing when you can’t come thru and choke in extreme crunch times to get your team where EVERY team wants to go.
Brady played 4
Montana 2,
Aikman 3
Myhomies 5
Steve Young 1
Young threw only 76 tds in his first 8 years so by your so called brain processes does that make yer Boyy Baker better than him???
Who you should compare him to is when it comes to short qbs is
Doug Flutie ZERO
Fran Tarketon 1
Drew Brees(whom you like to bring up when Baker is called short) ZERO even though he did win one in his 9th
I love how you Moisty Boyyz love to bring up super stats galore by comparing him to all time greats like he belongs among them to fit your agenda but when it comes to wins it’s a team sport.
Football is a game of inches and Baker Mayfield is not good enough to over come good teams, team mistakes and of course his own.
August 2nd, 2026 at 1:27 pm
ATLBuc EXACTLY!!!
JMarkbuc YES so true only I will say a better version
Marine Buc 😅🤣😂😅🤣 OOHRAHHH from a former swabee
Moisty Steve so I guess Bakie Boyyz career past doesn’t mean anything either huh
ModHairKen PRICELESS!! Moisty Boyyz got that Neanderthal low unibrow
Mayfield has to create this world’s against me schtick in order to ball out. Why not just ball out regardless instead of having to feel disrespected all the time??? I’m sure his Facebook/Instagram and every other fan ran site should give him all the fuel he needs.
I guess negative attention is still that. . . . attention
August 2nd, 2026 at 1:34 pm
Like he didn’t overcome in the Seattle game (among others) last year right? You have no credibility DBB…
August 2nd, 2026 at 1:43 pm
Yep, he’ll get 3,599.5
Place your bets if you like winning $
August 2nd, 2026 at 2:30 pm
Baker, 9 O coordinators in 9 years, I believe that is unprecedented
August 2nd, 2026 at 2:30 pm
“Just FYI, Mayfield’s worst year for passing yards with Tampa Bay was last year when he threw for 3,693 yards.”
Per season average is 3,566 yards over the course of his whole career, not this weird thing y’all do and just limit it to what he’s done in Tampa.
Basically asking him to be about 130 passing yards over his average, which shows where the bar is
August 2nd, 2026 at 2:40 pm
Brees, Rodgers, Brady and Mahomes are the only QBs in the history of the NFL with 3 year stretches of over 12000 passing yards, 95 or more TD passes, and under 40 picks.
Oops. I was wrong. Baker Mayfield did that the last 3 years. He’s possibly a top half of the league QB. And pigs fly.
With the changes in coaching he’s faced and being that he’s hung numbers like that with historically the lowest winning percentage team in NFL history tells me a little bit more than that, too.