Adam Schefter: “I Don’t Think [Baker Mayfield] Is Going To Hit The Market”
August 4th, 2026
Update.
There are several reasons Joe has been so confident that Baker Mayfield will still be taking snaps for the Bucs.
One, everything Joe has heard both on and off the record is that neither the Bucs nor Mayfield want a split in their relationship.
Another? Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht has the franchise tag in his back pocket.
Last week when Mayfield teed off frustrated about not having a new deal and the Bucs subsequently let it be known through their proxy Adam Schefter that they weren’t too kosher with Mayfield fudging on the numbers they offered him, Schefter then appeared on Pat McAfee’s show and said the Bucs weren’t going to let Mayfield hit the free agent market in March.
Today, Schefter doubled down on that belief, again using McAfee’s show as a platform.
“I don’t think he is going to hit the market,” Schefter said of Mayfield. “That doesn’t mean Tampa and Baker can’t get a deal worked out or they won’t get a deal worked out.
“But Tampa has the franchise tag next year. … When you have that tag, it gives you a little bit of leverage.”
Schefter then said he’s not buying Mayfield’s self-imposed deadline of the start of training camp is a concrete lock, which Mayfield himself cracked the door open to last week.
Schefter said he doesn’t believe it’s impossible the Bucs and Mayfield could reach a deal around Labor Day.
Yes, this is what Joe and Ira have said for months on the “Ira Kaufman Podcast.” While Mayfield may not be involved, his agent sure is.
Are we really to believe if Licht calls up Mayfield’s agent, capitulates and tells Mayfield’s agent, “Look, we will give you what you want,” Mayfield would nix the deal, saying, “I told you my deadline was July 30, eff off!”
Of course not.
"I don't think Baker Mayfield is going to hit the market..
Tampa has the franchise tag to use for the next two years if they can't get a deal done..
I don't believe it will ever get to that point but the two sides are on different pages right now"@AdamSchefter #PMSLive pic.twitter.com/tvsVSLJPyL
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) August 4, 2026
August 4th, 2026 at 1:18 pm
“One of the reasons Joe has been so confident that Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield will still be taking snaps for the Bucs as their starting quarterback in 2027 is for several reasons.”
One of the reasons is for several reasons. Either way to little or way too much AI involved in that sentence, Joe, lol.
August 4th, 2026 at 1:19 pm
3 year, 165, get it done Licht and Team Glazer.
That’ll look like a bargain believe me.
August 4th, 2026 at 1:23 pm
Bucs hold all the cards. They can pay him $40/$50/$55 over three years using the tag & his current deal. That’s $145 over three years with a ton of flexibility, meaning they can pull the rip cord on Baker after one, two or three years based on how he plays. And the point about Todd being on thin ice is real. Should they bail on Bowles, no problem for the next coach regardless if he wants to keep Baker or not. This flexibility makes the job more attractive. Paying him anything north of that is unnecessarily risky.
August 4th, 2026 at 1:24 pm
Baker fan here but personally I’d rather for the Bucs to wait till the end of the season and then make a decision. It’s a prove it year for baker. Many will disagree but we can all agree he’s bin inconsistent. It would suck if the Bucs break the bank and he has another terrible 2nd half season at the same time if he has a season like 24 then the price goes up and it should and people will say oh they should have signed him when he was cheaper well guess what no one can see into the future
August 4th, 2026 at 1:27 pm
Sign the Man!!!. Really he not going to take less years would put money on that
August 4th, 2026 at 1:34 pm
Baker will be the QB in ’27 because there is LITERALLY no one else
August 4th, 2026 at 1:34 pm
After the numbers that Baker has put up over the last three years, why does he have to prove himself again? Don’t blame the train wreck from the second half of last year only on Baker because that just isn’t fair. And even his haters know it.
August 4th, 2026 at 1:41 pm
@ Smashsquatcht
Your numbers are close but just a bit of modification. Per OverTheCap.com: “$50.3 million for 2027 and an increased sequential rate of approximately $60.4 million for 2028”
Adding his current deal: $40/$50.3/$60.4 = $150.7M. Also remember that if they tag him in 2027, they have to accelerate his dead money to 2027 making the cap hit $80M!
That said, your point is well taken. The Bucs can pull the plug at any time if they go this route. That is why Baker is not happy. He has absolutely zero security. But that is the way the CBA is structured and the Bucs can go this route if they so choose.
My question is, if they choose to go this route aren’t saying they don’t believe Baker is their future? If so, why not trade him now, get some added assets for a draft next year which is expected to be very good, lose more games so the picks that are theirs are higher choices? Same with VV!
August 4th, 2026 at 1:47 pm
Beeej Says:
August 4th, 2026 at 1:34 pm
Baker will be the QB in ’27 because there is LITERALLY no one else
______________________
This is accurate.
I can see them drafting a rookie (possibly even in the first round to keep Baker pissed), but it’s going to be Baker.
August 4th, 2026 at 1:51 pm
NO. Hold. The. Line. Not one-more YEAR. Not a DIME MORE. Just put a wrap on it, and say, “we’re good playing-out this season FIRST.”
August 4th, 2026 at 1:55 pm
I don’t mind if BM is gone in 2027.
I wouldn’t pay him as an elite when he is not.
There are gonna be qb on the draft and on free agency…..
My concern is VV, I would pay for him and not for BM
August 4th, 2026 at 1:56 pm
Is it possible that the bucs are are concerned that they may (somewhat likely) have a new coach and they want to leave some flexibility at the QB position
August 4th, 2026 at 2:00 pm
That isnt how the tag works smashsquatch. It would be like ~48 million then 140% of that
August 4th, 2026 at 2:21 pm
I dont think anyone has mentioned that there is a void year on the end of bakers contract. If he is franchise tagged next year the cap hit for the void year would be around 30 mil plus 50 mil for the tag. looking at a 80 mil cap hit next year with the franchise tag. The tag would just be to buy time to negotiate a long term deal.
August 4th, 2026 at 2:25 pm
If the injury-prone Baker is not signed and gets a owie, he can sit down the rest of the season while everyone watches to see the Bucs flounder without him and other teams can prepare their offers for 2027. And no one can criticize because they all said that if he gets hurt, he should not be playing. And the Bucs would find it hard to pay franchise money to someone they don’t think is a franchise quarterback.
August 4th, 2026 at 2:28 pm
This just convinces me they plan to replace Bowles next year. I’m purely guessing here, but I think it’s Tomlin.
A 2 year extension is acceptable to a new coach…that’s why Mayfield wants 3+ years. He wants to know he still has a job when Bowles is fired.
I cannot really blame him there.
August 4th, 2026 at 2:30 pm
Mobucs Says:
“If the injury-prone Baker…”
He might get injured, but he still plays. Usually just as good, but last year was a disaster all around. Just means he isn’t Superman.
August 4th, 2026 at 2:31 pm
zzbucs Says: There are gonna be qb on the draft and on free agency…..
I agree that this seems to be the Bucs chosen course. I have asked before but let me do it again. The why keep Baker for 2026? If the team thinks this is a SB caliber roster with Baker, then pay him. But clearly they don’t. So what is the real benefit of keeping him. Get some assets for him now, lose more game, get better draft position.
If they want to hold on to him in case they are wrong about him, then get a new GM and HC now as well. They seem to want to be half pregnant.
August 4th, 2026 at 2:52 pm
Critmark Says:
That is why Baker is not happy. He has absolutely zero security.
———-
Baker is 2-11 in primetime and playoff games since 2023.
Baker lost 4 games in a row last year with the playoffs on the line.
Baker played like such trash last year he got the entire offensive staff fired.
Baker lacks security, because he played like garbage when it mattered most. It’s 100% on him.
Baker is under contract, makes $40M this year, and if he performs, he’s going to get paid huge money. If Baker plays like the Baker last year, that cost the Bucs the playoffs, was so bad he made Evans flee to the other side of the country to get away from him, then Baker will be gone, and everyone will be fired.
August 4th, 2026 at 2:54 pm
Early season $$standoffs are normal in the NFL. But, last minute deals before first game is stupid. VV will pull a muscle in game 1 or 2 due to no training camo, guaranteed.
August 4th, 2026 at 3:10 pm
There is only one scenario where Baker hits the market.
That would be where the Bucs finish with a losing record and Baker doesn’t play well.
In that scenario Bowles would be fired and the new regime would decide what they want to do at QB.
If that scenario plays out AND the new coaching staff decides to move on from Baker..he hits the open market.
I dont see it playing out that way.
There is no reason for JL to cave to any demands right now. Baker is under contract and he really controls his own destiny with how he plays this year.
August 4th, 2026 at 3:13 pm
baker is outta here…let em walk!!!!
SIGN VITA!!!!
GO BUCS!!!!!
August 4th, 2026 at 3:24 pm
It seems Baker has done something like this on every team that he has been on. It’s very weird how he seems to consistently push at the teams, coaches, and owners at some point. The results have been that he has been cut every time. I suggest you read this:” https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32559762/the-story-how-baker-mayfield-odell-beckham-jr-field-browns-relationship-fell-apart“. It gives a lot of info about his character.
I don’t think just giving him everything he wants is the right move.
August 4th, 2026 at 3:33 pm
@ Rod Munch – I made no assertion that it was anyone’s fault, I was merely pointing out a fact, he has no security. If you want to put the entire blame on him, go for it.
I do find it funny however that all the Baker haters blame everything on Baker. You want to blame Evans departure on Baker, yet in Evans presser he praised everyone associated with the Bucs, EXCEPT the coaches. All the while saying how great the SF coaching staff is. Yep, that’s obviously Bakers fault.
On this very site, along with many others, there were comments that some players on the D quit last year, or at a minimum took plays off. Bowles even spoke about it. Yep, that’s obviously Bakers fault.
After the bye last year, the Offense scored around 4 points/game less and the defense allowed around 4 points/game. Those 4 points from either the O or D could have swung 4 losses the other way. Again, the D allowing 4 points/game more was Baker’s fault.
So I am clear, I think the Bucs want nothing to do with Baker long term, and as such I think they should trade him now. Get some assets for him now because if he plays as it seems you think he will this year, they let him walk and get nothing.
August 4th, 2026 at 3:38 pm
Here are the Super Bowl winning Quarterbacks the last eight years:
Darnold
Hurts
Maholmes
Maholmes
Stafford
Brady
Maholmes
Brady
Hurts and Donald are not elite. None had played less than three years. Stafford had played a dozen. Nobody thought of Darnold or Hurts as among the top dozen quarterbacks in the league. If the Buccaneers were to dump Baker you can expect a decade of mediocrity. Prescott, Burrow, Allen, Jackson, Herbert. They are media darlings but they fail year after year after year.
August 4th, 2026 at 3:45 pm
that’s one reason Baker has to be careful what he says. Bucs are actually sort of smart. They have him for one season guaranteed and if he gets injured they are off the hook (he runs enough and puts his body on the line that he is prone to injury). if he doesn’t get injured, then they try to negotiate wiht him and if that fails, they tag him with franchise tag. so he is staying in Tampa x 3 years at least and should not be sour. only thing is, he has no protection if he gets injured but thats life. he is rich enough already in general.
August 4th, 2026 at 3:49 pm
Rod Munch:
agree he needs to do better in primetime. BUT you have it backwards, Grizz and offensive staff were so bad they drove Evans away (he is done with 1st year OC’s) and Baker had a good but not great year and Bucs failed cause of them (and cause of Defense). Under Coen and Canales, Offense was good. but they were 1st timers……
August 4th, 2026 at 4:14 pm
I keep reading how the Bucs are smart to not pay him now because they can tag him if he plays well. Just for fun, let’s play a ’what if’ game here.
Scenario 1 – The Bucs miss the playoffs: Irrespective of how Baker plays, assuming if he plays lights out, they make the playoffs, they let him walk. I don’t see the Bucs paying him $50M with an $80M cap hit if they miss the playoffs. The Bucs get nothing in return.
Scenario 2 – The Bucs make the playoffs but lose on the first round: Even if Baker has a really good year, I think the Bucs decision is the same as scenario 1 – they let him walk. The Bucs get nothing in return. Tell me if you think I am wrong here.
Scenario 3 – The Bucs lose in the NFC Championship game: This gets tough. I don’t think the Bucs will step up with a long-term deal that Baker will accept. I could be wrong, but I just don’t think the Bucs want Baker long term. So, they tag him, take the $80M cap hit, and hope for the best.
Scenario 4 – The Bucs lose in the SB: Again, a tough call. But I think I am going with the same scenario as scenario 3. They tag him, eat the $80M cap hit and ride it out one more year.
Scenario 5 – The Bucs with Baker win the SB: The Bucs are forced to offer a real extension at a rate more than they want for longer than they want with more guarantees than they want. If they don’t Baker will be tagged and will never sign another non-tag contract with the Bucs…ever!
Given these scenarios, and the belief among most of the participants here that this is not a SB ready roster, what exactly is the ‘win’ for the Bucs here? The most likely outcome is he walks away and the Bucs get nothing in return.
August 4th, 2026 at 4:38 pm
Joe was uber confident Mike Evans was going to retire as a Buc for life.
Now Joe is still trying to figure out why he left for less money and higher taxes.
Despite ME13 giving clear and obvious answers for his departure to San Francisco.
After crying like a little girl with a skinned knee over getting offered over $100 million dollars, Baker needs to go elsewhere and likely will.
August 4th, 2026 at 5:56 pm
Exactly how this plays out No new deal franchise tag next year then he’s gone TAMPA has turned into a garbage organization
August 4th, 2026 at 6:05 pm
Dear God, Father Dungy, Jr.
August 4th, 2026 at 6:37 pm
Tony Dungy was far and away the best coach this organization ever had. Given one more year he would have gotten that Lombardi too.
Bring Tomlin. At the very least he’s not Charmin soft.
August 4th, 2026 at 6:44 pm
Not with the offense he had.
Bowles is a better coach this decade. Yeah, Joe typed that. And stands by that.
August 4th, 2026 at 7:10 pm
Great analysis lately @Critmark. You get it.
IF the Bucs are willing to take the 80mil cap hit, who gets let go? It will be Vita for sure plus at least either Diaby or Mauch. They’re on the last year of their contracts too. Are the Bucs really going to let them hit FA? Licht has 30 some players hitting FA in ’27. If they were to have a good year in ’26, the team will be entirely revamped in ’27. They can probably keep most of the O intact, under contract, but a lot of one year rentals will be hitting the road.
I just don’t see the Bucs using the tag. Not trading Baker now is another genius move by the FO. NO compensation next year.
August 4th, 2026 at 7:13 pm
Schefter is shilling for the Bucs PR department. Haven’t heard him mention that 80 mil cap hit once, or any details of the supposed 100mil.
August 4th, 2026 at 7:25 pm
The part of Baker’s interview that is being ignored by every outlet out there, including this one is when he said, “”I know I’m no dummy,” he said. “I know the contract and salary cap. What’s going on? [The] franchise tag isn’t exactly in play for them. Could be a lot of dead money.”
Of everything he said in that interview, that was the most significant thing in my opinion.
He knows they can’t tag him and also pay the dead cap money. They either have to cut him or work on a new multi-year contract that Baker will accept. Those really are the only two options the Bucs have unless you want the Bucs to tank this season with backup QBs and can convince Arizona or Cleveland to trade for him right now.
August 4th, 2026 at 7:31 pm
Jmarkbuc – “Bring Tomlin. At the very least he’s not Charmin soft.”
Maybe not, but he also hasn’t had a team win a single game in the playoffs since 2017. The Steelers made it to the playoffs the past five seasons and were 0-5. Seems like you are replacing Bowles with “less than Bowles”.
August 4th, 2026 at 7:50 pm
Smashsquatcht – “Bucs hold all the cards. They can pay him $40/$50/$55 over three years using the tag & his current deal.”
The first tag would be the LESSER of 120% of his current salary or the current top 5 average. That means $48 million for the first tag (2027).
The second tag swings heavily toward the layer, though. The Bucs would be required to pay the GREATER of 20% of his 2027 salary. 120% would be $57.6 million. The CURRENT average of the top five QB salaries is 56.8 million but that will go up when Lamar re-inks his deal.
I’m not sure why you even included this year’s money. It is set in stone and has nothing to do with a future contract other than setting the 120% baseline for next season’s tag.
Far more important, you forgot to include the $30 million dead cap money the Bucs are already on the hook for next year, whether Baker plays for the team or not. Baker has already been paid that money, sure, but it goes against the salary cap.
Projections are for teams to have about a $323 million cap next year. Retaining Baker for even one year would mean that his cap hit alone would be 25% of the entire team’s cap. The Bucs already have $296.5 million allocated to players and dead cap money for the 2027 season. Add in another $48 million for Baker’s tag and the Bucs are at $344.5 million – $21.5 million over the cap.
August 4th, 2026 at 8:24 pm
@ ScottyMack – Spot on analysis. Sportrac has the two years of the tag slightly higher than your numbers but either makes you point just fine. They can make the numbers work if they decide to tag him, but at what cost (good player cuts) to the team? Can you say Vita Vea?
They need to either trade him now, or extend him now.
One clarification though. I don’t think the entire $30M hits the cap next year as currently constructed, provided they extend him. Per Sportrac it would be roughly $12M in 2027 and 2028 with the final $6.2M in 2029. But if they tag him, it all gets accelerated to 2027 ($30,150,000).
August 4th, 2026 at 8:32 pm
Tomlins record the last 10 years? 113-67-2
Bowles can’t touch that.
August 4th, 2026 at 8:44 pm
Tomlin is going to be a very successful media personality. Why, at his time of life, would he want to start rebuilding a team from scrap without a quarterback and with a history of playing hardball with popular players? Also known for lowballing coach’s salaries.
August 4th, 2026 at 9:06 pm
Schefter was adamant that the Bucs certainly can and would tag Baker. He insisted that there were things the Bucs could do to work around that 30 million dead cap hit. He said that in one of his appearances on McAfee’s show. He’s a friend of Greenberg’s and came from the same hometown as one of the Joe’s has mentioned more than once so they are close. I wouldn’t doubt what he says no matter what you read on Spotrac. They don’t call Greenberg a magician with the salary cap for no reason.
August 4th, 2026 at 9:11 pm
I just want to see Baker play a prove it season. After that the Bucs and Baker will have the same clarity as to they should forward.
August 4th, 2026 at 9:41 pm
Joe stop saying the tag is in his pocket. It’s not 18.75 mil cap hit plus the tag next yr which will be over 59 even though est say less. That’s a 79mil cap hit in 1 yr plus making the othe 9mil a cap hit for the next. In order to make the deal cap affordable it must be finished before league yr end or then they will have to push more of the deal out further into more dead cap years. But tag is 100% in 1 yr and then makes the 18.75 and 9 already dead.
It is in their pocket but not ideal. You may not like the Bucs eating the cap charge, and neither would they. But the tag is their leverage. And of course, there are benefits that come with not kicking cap charges down the road. Several players have been tagged and traded over the years if it came to that. Hopefully not.–Joe
August 4th, 2026 at 9:44 pm
I meant 50 not 59 for the cap most honest est puts it at 50/51+. That again would be more than 70mil cap hit for Baker next yr. Other than Watson that will be the highest QB cap hit for next yr.
August 4th, 2026 at 10:00 pm
They don’t put a mural up in the stadium if they don’t intend to sign them. That would be a terrible look.
August 5th, 2026 at 4:33 am
Bowles needs to go. No question. He oozes of mediocrity and is not the kind of HC that can carry Tampa back to it’s glory days. Baker, go or stay, it’s getting to be a bit of a circus now. Giving Baker 55m per year will not get Tampa back into Superbowl contention. Tampa has a lot of needs on both sides of the ball. This team is due for a total rebuild from the ground up. The NFC South is bottom feeding territory and the Bucs couldn’t even finish at the top of that dung heap last year. The Bucs, at a minimum, need to be at the top of the worst division in the league, which isn’t saying a lot. At least be the best of the worst teams in the league. I’m not sure Baker is the answer, but I will be watching 2026 very closely. Go Bucs. Go Canes.
August 5th, 2026 at 11:39 am
I love all the people on here talking about Baker as though he has not earned a legitimate Franchise deal with the Bucs.. 2 out of 3 years he has played great and been a Pro Bowl QB.. Last year, he was an MVP favorite despite a lousy defense and virtually all his offensive line, and weapons standing on the sidelines in street clothes for a majority of the year! An injury in the last half of the year doesn’t change any of that!
I keep hearing well Baker is just too inconsistent.. No, what’s inconsistent is the availability of his teammates due to injuries, a defensive head coach who can’t seem to coach defense, and an organization that gives Baker an new OC every year, and allowed 2 great OCs out the door! On top of all that, now they lost Evans and Dean and their best defensive weapon, Vita Vea, wants traded!
Baker is the only damn thing that has performed and has been consistent since he has been in Tampa..
PAY THE MAN!!
August 6th, 2026 at 12:09 am
“srqbuc Says:
August 4th, 2026 at 2:21 pm
The tag would just be to buy time to negotiate a long term deal.”
The $30.15 million cap hit would still stand. Once it hits it can’t be undone.
August 6th, 2026 at 12:24 am
“ScottyMack Says:
August 4th, 2026 at 7:25 pm
They either have to cut him or work on a new multi-year contract that Baker will accept. ”
The only scenario that avoids the dead money cap hit is for the Bucs to resign him prior to February 20, 2027. Any other move…..cut, trade, let him walk, franchise tag….whatever….the last minute they can avoid that cap hit is 11:59 PM on 2/20/27