What If Baker Mayfield Struggles In 2026?
July 3rd, 2026
Get it done now or wait?
As you have probably read a time or two on this here corner of the interwebs, there is a disagreement at JoeBucsFan.com World Headquarters when it comes to Baker Mayfield.
One Joe has been stomping his feet for months to sign Mayfield — now! The other Joe was shook by the 2-7 nosedive last year and wants to see how/if Mayfield bounces back this fall before putting a contract in front of him.
The wait-on-Mayfield Joe approached the pro-Mayfield Joe and asked why he wanted to extend Mayfield, and give him a serious raise after last year’s tailspin, when there are still questions marks about him. If Mayfield is good this fall, then give him a raise. If he’s not, you have a loaded quarterback draft next spring to fall back on (And if Mayfield struggles again this fall, it’s a safe bet there may be a new coach in 2027 — would he want Mayfield?).
The pro-Mayfield Joe said you can do both: keep Mayfield and draft a quarterback in 2027 if Mayfield has a rough 2026. (The dynamic of Mayfield and a first-round quarterback in the same room seems, well, uncomfortable.)
So the pro-Mayfield Joe appears to have a like-minded BSPN analyst on his side.
It seems Seth Walder of BSPN, a man who never met a number he didn’t like, is leaning toward the Bucs extending Mayfield before the season. However, Walder typed, the Bucs better CYA themselves and do serious scouting on college quarterbacks this fall, just to play it safe.
The Mayfield decision is trickier. He said in early June that he and the team were “not anywhere close” and that he set a start-of-training-camp deadline to work out a deal. Given that, it probably makes sense for the Buccaneers to try to extend Mayfield, but it all depends on cost and guarantees. The 31-year-old has been solid, but the Buccaneers probably shouldn’t do anything that would preclude them from taking a top quarterback in next year’s draft if one happens to fall into their lap.
The Joe typing here thinks drafting a quarterback high with Mayfield still on the roster would be beyond combustible. And there really is no need to poison what is otherwise a pretty good locker room, at least on the offensive side of the ball.
But again, everything both Joes have heard both on and off the record says there is no reason to believe the Bucs won’t have Mayfield behind center when the 2027 season kicks off.
July 3rd, 2026 at 8:11 am
Baker will get resigned. Guys like him (there are only 31 others) don’t grow on trees. In the words of the great philosopher Alfred E. Neuman, “What, me worry?”
July 3rd, 2026 at 8:23 am
It’s all about the money. I would go with the Cousins/D. Jones model. Fully guaranteed extension. 2 years $88M was Jones. Baker, same, plus $12 extra to raise his current Sanjay from $33M to $45M. On paper, it is a 2 year $102M contract, fully guaranteed, appearance of $51M year. In reality, including 2026, it is a 3 yr $135M guaranteed contract, $45M annually. Win win. We save money. Only tied down through 2028. Baker and his agent outwardly get to say he’s in the $50M+ QB club.
July 3rd, 2026 at 8:27 am
Every time this topic comes up, it feels like watching a heavyweight title fight that somehow gets extended to Round 38. At some point, the bell has to ring.
I’d love to keep Baker Mayfield, but I’m not losing sleep over it either. As Epictetus taught, “Focus on what you can control.” The Bucs can control their scouting, roster-building, and contract strategy, not the future.
Good franchises scout every quarterback class every single year. That’s not a lack of confidence in Baker; it’s simply smart roster management. If there’s a franchise-caliber QB sitting there in 2027, why would you ignore him just because you already have a good quarterback?
The NFL is about planning 5–10 years ahead, not just the next season. Let the scouts do their job, let Baker do his, and let the market determine his value. That’s how successful organizations stay successful. The sky isn’t falling either way. T-R-U-S-T
@Lt.Dan As the great philosopher Alfred E. Neuman would say, “What, me worry?”
😆 I love it, good 1!
🔥 LFG!!
July 3rd, 2026 at 8:33 am
I’ve been a long time season ticket holder in the family section. I love the Bucs as much as the next guy. With that said, Baker will struggle this year. Love the guy but thats who he is. He’s not a consistent QB. Truth hurts.
July 3rd, 2026 at 8:35 am
Hold please while I count the number of drafted QBs the Bucs have been able to develop into long term starters…… NONE. Also most likely finish the season with 8-9 wins or so the point being they will be picking somewhere between 12–18. Gonna spend a lot of draft capital to get a top 5 pick. Not sure this is the right plan and if Jason is still here no way he will trade up.
July 3rd, 2026 at 8:40 am
If he struggles this year bucs meadi and his fan boys will say he was hurt or it’s the OC fault and it’s Bowles fault some kind of way . I’m sick of B.A Todd Bowles and Baker. We have a young reciver core with young a runningback and we’re getting younger on defense and this is not a Superbowl roster at all it is more of a up coming roster. It’s really time to move on from Baker and 32 years old next year is old for a quartback that’s never been elite. Move on draft a quartback save the money you want to give Baker that let’s be honest you know that the way he plays you ain’t winning a Superbowl with Baker Mayfield. He’s 2-9 in prime time games and has choked in every big game he’s played in with the bucs. Bucs fans and bucs meadi know that making it to the NFC championship with Baker is very slim so they set the bar low as possible for bucs fan can be happy being meadicore . They want us to raise the bar and that’s why they never say Superbowl or NFC championship or bust. Think about how many quarterbacks played like Baker did the second half of the season got paid for playing like he did ? None but it’s crazy how the same people who wants him won’t even show up at the games . Baker will get his money and that’s cool get your money Baker but the stadium will remain empty of bucs fans and the stadium will be a home field advantage for the visiting team watch and see!! Lol 😂
July 3rd, 2026 at 8:43 am
They don’t want us to raise the bar.
July 3rd, 2026 at 8:50 am
@Joe,
This debate and entrenched ideologies is very reminiscent of the political polarity in our nation. You are feeding an unnecessary schism. Just like we all love our nation, we share the same affinity for our bucs. And while, in light of the current global direction, I’m not going to say both sides are right politically, but I will say both sides are right in the pay Baker debate.
Baker has good stats and has minded the gap solidly since Brady’s departure. But the fact remains, he’s a 0.500 QB who shrivels in prime time and literally shat the bed for more than half of the season last year. And while he did have some heroics early in the season, his play early in games made those heroics necessary (the bucs only had a halftime lead in 6 games last yr and went 6-0 in those games). So yes, pay Baker, but wait until the bye because by then we should know whether or not there will be a coaching change based on his and Bowles’ effectiveness
July 3rd, 2026 at 8:52 am
It’s likely he will struggle, but if he comes alive after a terrible first half and a second half playing catch up, y’all will grown him a 6 week MVP. Just like you do now, you give him credit for the first 8 games when in reality he only had 2 MVP level performances before the bye.
So what’s the use of a QB being top 12-15 for 2/3 games and being mid to subpar in more games than he is good.
We know door #2 exists, and even without Mayfield this offense is built to be plug and play for damn near any pro-caliber QB, like it was BEFORE Mayfield got here.
July 3rd, 2026 at 9:22 am
I’m OK with whatever the Bucs decide to do. And in truth, there is a risk either way, whether they extend him now or not.
July 3rd, 2026 at 9:25 am
IF Baker struggles this year, then the Bucs mostly likely lose 10 games or more. In which the coaching staff will be fired and the new staff will decide on how they want to proceed.
That’s the biggest reason to not hand Baker a huge new contract until we see how things play out.
July 3rd, 2026 at 9:30 am
One can speculate on “what ifs” until the end of time! So, what happens if the Baker led offense averages 30+ points per game but does not win the division? Baker has spoken his like of Tampa Bay and how his family would stay there during the of season. A red flag to the Bucs, if Baker is not signed before the beginning of training camp and has a successful 2026 season, he will be somewhere else in 2027!
July 3rd, 2026 at 10:06 am
He will have a much better year , he will be healthy, line will be healthy, RBs will be healthy, WRs will be healthy,, all that matters but the key is ZR the OC ,, Baker will do much better cause when he is with an OC from the Rams tree he seems to flourish ,, McVay, and Coen he was great ,, Clark Grizzzzwald not as great and I like Canales but he was also learning to call plays on the fly,,, the Question really isn’t this , the question is where will Robinson be head coach in 2027? Jets??? With his QB from 2026 ? Better extend boys before you are forced to trade Baker for a 3rd to the jets next year
July 3rd, 2026 at 10:15 am
WAIT AND SEE!!!!!!
baker hasnt proven his worth…1 playoff win 3years ago doesnt equal a raise
GO BUCS!!!!
July 3rd, 2026 at 10:36 am
$30 Million base, incentives of $1M extra per W and $2M for a first round playoff Win $3M for a 2nd round Win $4M for a NFC championship win and $5M for a Super Bowl win. He stands to EARN over $60M
July 3rd, 2026 at 10:47 am
Wouldn’t it be funny if he was already signed and they aren’t saying anything because they want lots of Bucs talk in the no-news days leading up to training camp?
July 3rd, 2026 at 11:03 am
@Warren Brooks Lynch
Joe and the entire Buccaneers community respectfully are still waiting for you to answer the question that was asked a couple thousand comments ago.
If Baker isn’t the guy, then who is? What’s your realistic replacement plan?
We’re all ears. 🥱
July 3rd, 2026 at 11:09 am
If Baker isn’t the guy, then who is? What’s your realistic replacement plan?
We’re all ears. 🥱
————————————————————-
Right!!! Quarterbacks that can win 8 games an are able to go 2-7 down the stretch don’t grow on trees!
July 3rd, 2026 at 11:25 am
Norm Snead could’ve done what Baker did over the last 9 games of 2025.
Bowles as Twocoach, no QB, not even Tom Brady could survive the regressive singularity that has impacted every player on the roster during his tenure
July 3rd, 2026 at 11:45 am
@Bori/Mex,
I will step on your land mine. And it is a landmine, because anything said is speculative conjecture. And simply, your cast of doubt does not strengthen your position of status quo. Here’s the answer. It does not matter, because the “checkers” ques is ‘who can replace Baker,’ while the “chess” ques is ‘who is replacing Bowles?’ Life, the NFL, will continue beyond Baker.
July 3rd, 2026 at 11:55 am
We were fortunate to sign Baker when we did. This star-crossed franchise will screw up this QB situation. That is the only thing we can count on.
July 3rd, 2026 at 12:17 pm
Mayfield didn’t struggle in 2025. His supporting cast did. His OC did. His defense did. His oline did.
It’s all there in the ALL22 if you know what you’re looking at.
Production dipping is a function of the offensive UNIT, not the QB.
“Play” is different than “Production”
July 3rd, 2026 at 12:20 pm
If Baker and the OL can stay healthy, it’s much more likely we see the 41 TD, playing like and MVP Baker than a struggling Baker.
I would hope by now, he understands that if he’s hurt at all, he needs to be outta the game.
It only hurts his value. It got him ran outta Cleveland and 9 average to bad games last season has fans trying to run him off again.
July 3rd, 2026 at 12:31 pm
Baker sucked last year. Top 10 in the NFL in passing yards. Top 7 in the NFL in passing touchdowns. The number 1 quarterback in the NFL in yardstick per rush. Oughta be a piece of cake replacing him. Especially since he is gonna be out of the peak of his prime in 4 or 5 years.
July 3rd, 2026 at 12:34 pm
There are not many NFL starting QBs who could have carried the Bucs team last year when you take in to account the injuries to the O line, RBs, Evans Godwin and an OC who was not ready for prime time. Add in a defense that (insert opinion here)? Baker tried mightily but got injured for the effort.
Think Brady and his last year in Tampa. Difference is Brady did not scramble.
I have no problems with Baker other than he sometimes pulled the ball down and took off instead of getting the ball out…even if it was to throw it away. Again, think Brady
I don’t think any top tier QB could have saved us last year. If Mayfield has a bad year this year? We need to start thinking about lots of things. Not just the next QB.
Go Bucs!
July 3rd, 2026 at 12:42 pm
Saskbucs. “It got him run outta Cleveland”. You’re wrong on that point. Kevin Stefanski thought that coaching an NFL franchise was easy, but it turns out that it isn’t easy. Baker is gonna get it done, but it won’t be easy. Stefanski won 8 games the last two years with a talented defense. I bet he wishes he hadn’t of been such a dumba$$ 5 years ago. The good news for us is that a dumba$$ doesn’t just change his spots. I can’t wait till we play the Falcons.
July 3rd, 2026 at 1:02 pm
If the line stays healthy than so should Mayfield.
July 3rd, 2026 at 1:30 pm
“Joe and the entire Buccaneers community respectfully are still waiting for you to answer the question that was asked a couple thousand comments ago.“
Rent free, but here’s my plan.
Let Baker play for the $40M he’s going to make this year. See how he does, if the law of averages bites him in the a** like it did last season we’ll have to move forward. Now, Bazelak, Daniels, not Browning are locks to be on the roster next year. I personally feel the start of the Mayfield succession plan was getting Daniels in here and gettin him acclaimate with the pro level of play as well as the talent we have on hand for a year.
FFWD to pre-combine & Draft ‘27 if Baker turns back into a pumpkin in ‘26 playing like he has for the majority of his career whether it be inconsistency or the shaky ball security or a good mix of both. You eat the charge and go cheaper, holding onto Daniels and investing in a Maiava, Mensah(Hurricane-Buc pipeline revisited) or Sayin, and a few others Í need to see this college season before Í say “yea, he’d work for us”. Even this draft, I wanted us to sign Jack Strand-that’s my archetype, big, stronger and smart. Finding a QB with more touch than Baker won’t be hard. More athleticism, won’t be hard. Get me 2-3 QBs with higher ceiling than a 31 and at the time will be 32 yo Baker Mayfield. All this 3-4 yrs for him like longevity at QB is a given, when in reality it’s reserved for the QBs who’re either really established-good starters for years or career backups. No in between.
You guys spend so much time blaming external factors that you don’t see what internally limits Mayfield. Instead of actual intangibles it’s just emotionally backed talking points and the “dude-bro” following. While you’re lauding the 9 yard run for the sticks, Í say the WR he could’ve led with an accurate throw if he didn’t decide to bail because he thought he’d feel pressure. Plenty of examples of this every year he’s been out QB. Then I hear “he was phenomenonal to start the season” in regards to last year, game 2 he didn’t impress me and I can’t credit the offense for a comeback in a game we allowed 19 points. Y’all group all this together for an overall speaking point but YOU totally gloss over context or when presented with data you’re talking about it’s cherry-picked.
You don’t see the game the way Í do, and you ask me to answer that idiotic question so you can talk like I’m just “trolling” you, but here’s the thing I don’t shape my opinion based on who’ll agree with me. It’s what I see mixed with what I believed and what I don’t believe is that Mayfield is good enough to have this franchise by the short and curlies.