Warren Sharp Ponders Todd Bowles’ Hot Seat
July 2nd, 2026
The time is now.
If Joe didn’t know better, famed handicapper-turned-stathead Warren Sharp is like many of Joe’s commenters and many callers to WDAE-AM 620/WDAE-FM 95.7:
How much longer can the Bucs’ endure Bucs coach Todd Bowles’ defense?
In Sharp’s annual preview, which is chock full of revealing advanced stats, he is simply flabbergasted how Bowles has survived in Tampa. Sharp has gone over the numbers for the Bucs defense, and they are ug-uh-ly.
In fact, Sharp believes their defensive numbers the past three seasons are “untenable” for a defensive-minded coach to stay employed.
Since taking over for Bruce Arians, Bowles has produced just one 10-win season, and his defense has slipped from seventh in points allowed in 2023 down to 20th in the same category last year.
Consider that stat: #5 highest blitz rate, 185 total blitzes (#6 most), but only 11 sacks.
The 5.9% sack rate when blitzing ranked #24.
Sharp believes Bowles’ inability/disinterest in developing sack monsters is liable to Pearl Harbor his career.
And the Bucs’ overall sack rate ranked in the bottom 10, the worst of Bowles’ tenure in Tampa.
Across 600 opposing dropbacks, Bowles’ defense ranked in the bottom 10 in both hit rate and sack rate in 2025.
And, perhaps even more incredibly, when Bowles’ defense did happen to get pressure, which wasn’t nearly often enough, opposing quarterbacks averaged the #5 best EPA per dropback against them. So the pressure wasn’t even delivering great results.
I don’t know where the Bucs go from here. … But I don’t know how you have success as a franchise if you have a defensive head coach who is delivering THIS type of performance on his side of the ball. It’s untenable.
Well, it seems someone at One Buc Palace might be getting the hint. The Bucs this offseason drafted a four-man front edge rusher (Rueben Bain) in the first round, then got an edge rusher in free agency who collected 11 sacks last year (Al-Quadin Muhammad) despite never starting a game.
Throw in a healthy Calijah Kancey, and you would think the Bucs ought to get to the quarterback a few more times.
This is critical because right now Joe believes the weakest room on the team, aside from Jacob Parrish, is the cornerbacks room. A cornerback’s best friend is a consistently good pass rush.
Will the Bucs finally have a pass rush again this fall? Can Bowles prove he can develop an edge rusher? As the great Moe Howard once said, “We shall see.”
July 2nd, 2026 at 3:58 am
I found it kind of strange how Bowles described BAIN as having “LENGTH,” in this article I read. I wonder what the hell HE MEANT by that, when literally everyone else, has said that he has THE “shortest” arms they’ve EVER SEEN before!? :/ LoL.
July 2nd, 2026 at 4:01 am
Seems like, he always says the exact ‘opposite’ purposefully, or something!? It just NEVER adds up, or makes any sense with him.
July 2nd, 2026 at 4:06 am
I’m a Buccaneers diehard fan first, so I’ll always support Todd Bowles while he’s our HC. But supporting the team doesn’t mean pretending the numbers aren’t what they are.
Warren Sharp isn’t criticizing Bowles based on emotion, he’s using analytics. For a defensive minded head coach, the results simply haven’t been good enough. Tampa has consistently been among the league leaders in blitz rate, yet the defense has struggled to convert those blitzes into sacks, quarterback hits, and negative plays. When you’re bringing extra rushers and still ranking near the bottom in pressure efficiency, something has to change!
The encouraging part is that the front office finally attacked the problem. We drafted T-Rex Bain to strengthen the front four, signed Al-Quadin Muhammad after his 11-sack season, expect a healthy Calijah Kancey for a full year, and continue to develop Yaya. The talent up front is better than it’s been in years.
This is Bowles’ prove it season. If the pass rush improves and he can generate pressure with four instead of constantly dialing up blitzes, the secondary immediately becomes better. If the defense is still bottom 10 in pressure metrics despite these investments, then the criticism will be impossible to ignore.
I’m hoping Bowles adjusts because if this defense even becomes a top 10 unit, this roster is talented enough to make a legitimate playoff run.
Can I get an Amen?! 🙏
🔥 LFG!
💍 Ring Me
July 2nd, 2026 at 5:22 am
Wash, rince, repeat, tell us something we don’t know. Not only is Bowles on the hotseat, he’s in a no win situation to keep his job. If the Bucs do bad, he’s gone, if they do good, he’s gone. Tell you why. We do good, the offense will probably have a lot to do with it. When that happens, teams will be looking to make Zac a head coach. Do the Bucs want to lose another young offensive minded coach to retain Todd? I don’t see the Glazers letting another Coen walk out the door. I don’t see them wanting Baker to learn another offense just so they can keep Todd, and his defense. So win, or lose, I think this is Todd’s last season in Tampa.
July 2nd, 2026 at 6:48 am
We had some GREAT players on defense in the Superbowl year. The quality of the front 7 has steadily been circling the drain ever since. When he says on the plays where we DID get pressure, “opposing quarterbacks averaged the #5 best EPA per dropback”. THAT’S likely because said pressure came at the expense of pass coverage–a blitz.
Is it because Todd can’t develop pass rushers, or because they simply haven’t the ability?. JTS tried 3 teams after us, he’s out of the league. DW45, AFAIK, is out of the league. Gaines is out of the league. Hall is now a backup DE on a 4-3 (which is where he ought have been all along, NOT trying to be a DT) Reddick is out of the league. I suspect in a month or 3 Braswell will be out of the league. We REALLY have been making good personnel choices
July 2nd, 2026 at 7:16 am
Everyone already knows this. We also know why Glazers are reluctant to fire him.
This team is upgraded accross the board sans maybe CB. Todd better win 10+ and a playoff game or force the retirement
July 2nd, 2026 at 7:21 am
I’m not sleeping on David Walker. And Hodad, I don’t believe Coach Bowles is in a no win situation. Quite the contrary. We’re one of the best teams in the NFC, heck, we might just win the Super Bowl this year. Bowles and Baker have had the shlt kicked out of them this offseason by every yahoo with a halfa$$ opinion. But tides change. Just watch.
July 2nd, 2026 at 7:25 am
Amen BoriMex 813, amen! Excellent analysis on your part, although I’m not enamored with Sharp’s ‘analytical approach’. I love analytics, but I dislike ‘cherry-picking’, and that’s what I see far too often in today’s world. Pick the stats that prove your point as opposed to attempt to provide a more inclusive picture of what went right versus what went wrong. And that leads to some poor conclusions.
And that’s what Sharp has done to Bowles IMO, and for ‘only’ $29.95 (but down from $34.95). For instance …
o ‘Sharp believes the defensive numbers the Bucs have put up the past three seasons are “untenable” for a defensive-minded coach to stay employed’. Three years ago our 2023 Bucs had the #7 ranked defense, allowing only 325 pts that season (19.1 PPG) … our best defense since 2009. THAT’s not ‘untenable’, that’s pretty damn good. Our defense slid a bunch to a #16 ranking in 2024 (385 pts allowed), then further to #20 in 2025 (411 pts allowed). THAT sucks, but analytics should answer the question WHY, and then you can take action to fix THOSE PROBLEMS. I believe we’ve tried to do that by adding FAs Robinson, RNR, Muhammad, Anzalone, Rozeboom and drafting Bain, Trotter, Capehart. Only time will tell however.
o Even our terrible showing last season had some bright spots, but Sharp’s analysis doesn’t discuss any of that. For instance, Bucs ranked #7 in Takeaways (with 23), which defintely helps our offense. We ranked #6 in 4th Down Conversions Allowed (down to 46.7% from 63.3% and a #23 ranking in 2024). That’s progress in the right direction, and progress like that needs to be continued.
Most importantly though, our defense started OK and actually finished OK, but in the middle REALLY sucked. We gave up 106 pts in the Pats, Bills & Rams games (all 3 offensive powerhouses). Plus our S/Ts surrendered 14 points on a blocked punt return & a blocked FG return while our defense sat on the bench. Take away those 120 pts and in the other 14 games we averaged 20.8 PPG Allowed (which would’ve been a #11 ranking in 2025). And THAT was with a crappy pass rush all year.
Only point being: Analytics requires looking at ALL sides of the problem, so that by ‘fixing’ what went wrong, you don’t inadvertently throw out what went right and create a bunch of ‘new’ problems in the process.
July 2nd, 2026 at 7:27 am
Beej … ‘We REALLY have been making good personnel choices’.
Amen to that to brother.
July 2nd, 2026 at 7:38 am
If the Bucs defensive rush doesn’t take a big step this year and the team doesn’t make the playoffs the Todd Bowles era is over. The Bucs addressed many of their needs, so a big improvement is expected from from their coaching staff. This is a make or break season for coaches, players and the Bucs front office 🏬
Make the playoffs and you get to live another season. Football is brutal for everyone associated with the game. IT’S ALL ABOUT WINNING AND TAKE NO PRISONERS.
July 2nd, 2026 at 7:38 am
@Defense Rules
Amen, brother! I appreciate that. I completely agree that analytics should provide context, not just ammunition for one side of the argument.
Bowles absolutely deserves criticism for the last two seasons, but I also think it’s fair to acknowledge what the front office has done this offseason to address the biggest weaknesses. Now it’s about results. If the pass rush improves and this defense still struggles, then the criticism is justified. But if the additions up front do what they’re expected to do, I think we’ll see a much different defense in 2026.
Here’s hoping we’re talking about a top-10 defense again by the end of the season. Go Bucs!
July 2nd, 2026 at 7:53 am
“Defense Rules Says:
July 2nd, 2026 at 7:27 am
Beej … ‘We REALLY have been making good personnel choices’.
Amen to that to brother.”
……………………………………….
That wasn’t intended as sarcasm, lol I just forgot to type the “n’t” after “have”
July 2nd, 2026 at 8:18 am
We heard this same argument last summer. Bowles is on the hot seat BS.
I don’t buy it one bit. He’s the golden boy of the Glazers. They love him.
My guess is he’s guaranteed to be here through 2027. No matter the results.
They’re willing to waste multiple years on a HC\DC that can’t do either job.
Todd Bowles is the worst coach in the entire NFL. He’s a complete fraud.
July 2nd, 2026 at 8:20 am
I am not an avid Bowles hater. With that said the defense has been awful the last 3 years, with last year the worst. I do think he has not had players in the front 7. Or the secondary.So where do you put that blame. Yes some squarely rests with him. I mean take a look, we were told Dennis was a quality LB. I mean go from there. Presently he is gambling on Morrison and McColumn to play well, which is hard for me to understand. I think McColumn has proven he needs to be benched until he proves otherwise. Morrison can’t even stay healthy with no contract. How is he going to stay healthy for a whole season. Then answer this who fills in for him when he is hurt. Who replaces McColumn when he plays like McColumn. These are huge issues in the secondary. They are counting on the front 7 to bail out a sad secondary?. What happens when Kancy gets hurt again. Bain plays like a rookie and Scott as well. Yes to many things the Bucs are gambling on and Bowles is a large part of that. I see this defense as average at best. Does that cost Bowlers his job. Well if the Glazers are expecting a championship team with this defense then yes I think Bowles has signed his own termination notice.
July 2nd, 2026 at 8:45 am
Bowles defense is 110% dependent on superior talent, which is not good coaching. He has not shown the ability to scheme and optimize the talent he has, which is why its crazy he can fire a one year OC for exactly what he has been doing his entire stint with the Bucs. I really think he avoided hiring a DC because it would have exposed him, either that or his ego is way too big. Either way, he is a mediocre HC at best and I don’t care how nice he is, he is not an effective leader and the record and stats prove this. If this team is successful it will be because JL brought the talent and the talent delivered, not because Bowles is some genius coach.
July 2nd, 2026 at 9:14 am
Glazers & Bowles = Nerds & Turd. This guy certainly does not deserve another season to prove how inept he is at being an HC/DC. He will likely ‘retire’ and never be appropriately FIRED as he should have been quite some time ago.
July 2nd, 2026 at 9:24 am
‘how Bowles has survived in Tampa.’
The ‘buddy’ system because he sure hasn’t earned it…
I am convinced no other team would have kept IBS as HC this long…
Glaziers aren’t the smartest team owners, that is for sure!
July 2nd, 2026 at 9:29 am
Not getting sacks with players that are not good is not a surprise. We have made a number of upgrades that should dramatically help the 4-man rush and im hoping that the talent meshes well right away. Bowles is a very good coach as evidenced by our Super Bowl win, but he like any other DC needs players that can execute his game plan. If nobody gets penetration then QB’s can just pick us apart. That will change this year. We have enough options we can find some that work! Now get another competent corner and ILb and this team is ready to go the distance. I also agree with Defense Rules it’s so important to look at the performance metrics and actual games in full a few times before making changes and I’ll bet the coaches did that in depth.
July 2nd, 2026 at 9:46 am
Beej … ‘That wasn’t intended as sarcasm, lol I just forgot to type the “n’t” after “have”’.
That’s OK Beej, I read it as ‘wasn’t’ when I responded, and didn’t pick up the ‘non-sarcasm’ until afterwards.
July 2nd, 2026 at 9:47 am
Do a search on the below. This is what is crazy.
Over the past five years, the best defensive-minded NFL head coaches are DeMeco Ryans (Texans), Mike Macdonald (Seahawks), Jim Harbaugh (Chargers), Todd Bowles (Buccaneers), and Dan Quinn (Commanders). They consistently scheme elite, play-making defenses.
Vic Fangio, Robert Saleh, Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh.
These are your true defensive HCs worth a Damn.
Its really getting old. Yes some of them had horrible Offenses but their defenses were literally good every year.
July 2nd, 2026 at 10:37 am
3rd & 28. That’s all we need to say.
July 2nd, 2026 at 11:21 am
Bowles sucks. Mike Evans knows. Rachaad White knows. Logan Hall knows. Jamel Dean knows. Christian Izien knows. Cade Otton knows, too, but doesn’t care since he’s getting paid $10 million to drop balls and whiff blocks.
July 2nd, 2026 at 11:31 am
I’m sure if Malcolm Glazer was still alive, Todd Bowels would not be our HC right now. He had a different feel and vision of the team. Coen most likely would be HC, and we’d have a full time DC. MG was not afraid to make bold moves, and it helped us get our first SB while the window was open. BA, Brady, and healthy lines helped get us our second. My point is Team Glazer has a window opening up if Mr. Robinson comes in and delivers like I think he will. This could be a top ten offense with good health and OC. Now about that defense…
July 2nd, 2026 at 12:13 pm
I personally am tired of hearing about Calijah Kancey. To me, he’s a total non-factor if he can’t stay healthy. We need to, at this point, assume he won’t be available and work with the rest of what we have.
At this rate, he’ll be lucky to be in the NFL 3 years from now unless he produces; we likely won’t even extend him ourselves.
July 2nd, 2026 at 2:37 pm
“It’s untenable”. Ya think?
July 2nd, 2026 at 2:41 pm
“Well, it seems someone at One Buc Palace might be getting the hint. ”
True – and they went out and got some more starter level talent for the front 7 to replace Reddick, Gaines, Hall, LVD etc
I’m sure Todd is on the hot seat. We’ll see how the D looks with a personell makeover.
Without significant defensive improvement he’ll probably be gone and should be but I’m rooting for the defense to be solid and Todd to succeed because I’m a Bucs fan.
If you’re hoping we’ll fail, because you don’t like the coach, or QB, or WRs etc, are you really a fan ?
July 2nd, 2026 at 2:47 pm
Tom Brady set the culture of that Super Bowl team. The amount of focus and with how they ALL came together. You never heard any of those “Defensive Players” even ONCE say that they were SCARED of screwing-it up because of TODD BOWLES. But, they were CONSTANTLY worried about it FOR TOM. He set the tone for the TEAM. He was the LEADER, and the rest of the team followed HIS LEAD. They played their asses off FOR HIM. Not Todd Bowles. Todd and JL are just their buddies. It’s the reason why Tom wanted Bowles over B.A. going into his last season here… He knew HE wasn’t willing to hold ‘HIMSELF’ accountable, and that was just NOT going to fly with BRUCE. Remember how Todd was trying to act as if everything was just ‘fine & dandy’ when Tom was MISSING LoL… Said that HE (and the whole team) KNEW about it beforehand, and that it had all been pre planned-out and excused, for like months in advanced. But, then NONE of the players knew anything about it whatsoever, when asked!? What a DISASTER that was. A total WASTED season. You could tell that they had absolutely NO CLUE, too! They seemed every bit as confused as everyone else did. Well, everyone else though, except for Todd. Now, Todd was ON IT. Lmao
July 2nd, 2026 at 3:34 pm
JPP. Suh. Shaq. Vea.
Of course the numbers slipped. Three of them are not longer Bucs and are retired.
July 2nd, 2026 at 3:40 pm
I’m still holding to my theory that the Bucs talked to Mike Tolmlin and discovered he wants a year off from coaching.
So the smart move was to keep Bowles another year. They still have to lure him to the Bucs, but this past draft will go a long way toward that.
And, Tomlin can be talking to staff members on all the teams since he’s not representing any team for the year…along with players.
He can take his time to prepare.
If the Bucs had fired Bowles, they would not have been able to get Tomlin next year.
July 2nd, 2026 at 4:43 pm
God help the Bucs if they hire Tomlin. Father Dungy, Jr. His offensive coordinator hires have been atrocious!
Todd Bowles has a better playoff record than Tomlin this decade and Bowles is much better at finding quarterbacks and hiring offensive coordinators. That’s not speculation, that’s cold hard facts.
July 2nd, 2026 at 4:48 pm
“Healthy Kancey”
I’ll take things that will never happen for 500 Alex.
In all seriousness I do think the d is better. Todd is no guru as some have suggested but he’s a solid d coordinator.
His HC issues stem from how old school and conservative he is. That and not understanding basic math (scoreboard, game clock).
July 2nd, 2026 at 4:54 pm
The only coach Team Glazer has retained after back-to-back losing seasons was Chucky. Why? Because he got Team Glazer a Super Bowl ring.
July 2nd, 2026 at 5:10 pm
Name a player who has improved the past three years on defense.
Tykee Smith has.
Antoine Winfield hasn’t. Zyon McCollum hasn’t. SirVocea Dennis didn’t. Logan Hall, maybe, but that’s a stretch. Vea hasn’t, though his best days are behind him. YaYa’s best season was his rookie year.
When you can only name one player on defense who improved in the past three years, that’s bad coaching.
July 2nd, 2026 at 5:38 pm
Joe Says:
“The only coach Team Glazer has retained after back-to-back losing seasons was Chucky. Why? Because he got Team Glazer a Super Bowl ring.”
If they hadn’t extended him after 2024 we’d already have moved on.
That contract will never make sense. Especially after 2025.
Are you ok with them wasting multiple years on a HC\DC that can’t do either job???
July 2nd, 2026 at 5:54 pm
I don’t even need fo read the stats in this article. Because having Bowles as your HC comes with built in problems. Most notably any success in offense and you’re a victim of your own success. The OC gets a HC job elsewhere. So right out of the gate you have issues. Let’s do a thought experiment. Imagine Bowles isn’t the HC he’s a DC. Would he have been fired by now? Yep.
July 2nd, 2026 at 6:01 pm
If the offense lights it up this year. Promote Zac Robinson to HC. Have him pick his OC replacement. Then hire a DC that can utilize the talent that side of the field.
July 2nd, 2026 at 6:17 pm
I think the biggest thing everyone forgets is that this is a team sport so it all goes together and comes apart together.
Special teams was terrible last season so opponents were playing on a short field which put our defense at a disadvantage so they gave up points.
The defense giving up points then puts the pressure on our offense which was filled with injuries. This leads to failed drives without points which put our terrible ST right back on the field to stink things up again.
July 2nd, 2026 at 6:39 pm
@ LynchMob50 Says: “Are you ok with them wasting multiple years on a HC\DC that can’t do either job???”
What’s done is DONE. I couldn’t care ANY LESS about it. Coach’s salaries have ZERO impact to the Salary Cap. So, it is entirely IRRELEVANT. Todd Bowles WILL BE The Head Coach of The “Tampa Bay Buccaneers” for the 2026 NFL Season. It’s already set in stone. It is what it is. NOTHING is changing that. It’s a 💯 DONE DEAL. So, there is absolutely ZERO reason to waste another ‘SINGLE-MINUTE’ even worrying about it. There is no point! HE’s CHEAP, and the Glazers do LOVES THEM SOME CHEAP,
July 2nd, 2026 at 6:46 pm
Sapp ain’t wrong. Bowles is on thin ice and still eating Kit-Kat things.
July 2nd, 2026 at 8:47 pm
Mike oh mike where are youuuuu please come back im begging you i don’t know what to do anymore I can’t sleep I can’t eat my dog won’t eat please pretty please come home…….sincerely your bestie. 328
July 2nd, 2026 at 9:25 pm
When did Joe write he was OK with that?
July 3rd, 2026 at 3:15 am
I think its over. He’s gun shy towards playing man coverage or even walkin his corner back 2 play within 6 yards on the 1st 2 downs. Where they should be 1 n 10s n 2 n 6s. How is our dline supposed 2 develop when all these short routes r beating our cbs? Then those same dline men go 2 other defenses that play differently. They gotta be lookin n feelin foolish football is a mental game 2. U spend 3 years maybe 4 years not producing go 2 another team where ur confidence is unstable cant beat the top guy or even the backup. Ur middleage in football years the younger guys takin 3rd string cuz of potential. This coach had a superbowl because his guys were lined up shorter in the playoffs that year. The game that gave him confidence was the regular season chiefs game when three smoked us in the first half then their whole offense got shut down. Zero points in that 2nd half n I believe they had negative offensive yardage. My opinion anyways. N I’d like 2 see him leave my favorite football team.
July 3rd, 2026 at 3:18 am
**tyreek*
July 3rd, 2026 at 5:50 am
I’ve said it before, the reason the Glazier’s kept Bowles as the HC is “MONEY” pure &
simple. They showed their lack of being good owners of a NFL team when they reupped Bowles to quickly after he won the weakest division in football. If they had fired him after last season I read that would have cost his buyout to be astronomical compared to year 2 or 3 , the amount of money they have to just give away wasn’t worth it. Their alternative is to spend that different on trying to upgrade the coaches . The 25 team didn’t have a winning attitude as we saw, they weren’t up to the NFL standard talent wise , while our starters were pretty good there was a huge drop off.to the backups for sure. The Bucs had the worst year injury wise I ever saw hopefully the changes in the S & C coaches will help with that. They did get better talent in FAs they hired plus the team attitude got nastier. They drafted pretty well for the same reason & had similar outcomes , a more talented, nastier Defense. Our Offense should be as good probably better, we are fortunate our WR room is pretty deep with good talent so ME13 leaving won’t be a major problem. It all hinges on the Defense, That’s what next season will be made or lost on o & they DID NOT HIRE A DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR??? I really worry that Bowles can’t BUCS!!! HA both jobs, as HC / DC. having a qualified OC will help having a NFL level ST Coach & real ST talent will really help but our short coming is not hiring a DC to not only monitor the practices but probably most important, run the game day play calling & concentrate on the Defense only. The Soccer loving family who made sure to get MAN U a new home but didn’t think enough of our Bucs to hire a qualified DC will be his down fall, well that & the amount of cash the Glazier’s will save in year 2 of a buyout. GO BUCCANEERS!!!! Hope the Hire Coach Tomlin movement is strong & true
July 3rd, 2026 at 6:51 am
Question Joe?
I believe this would be a great article!!!
Why is Todd Bowles still the Coach?
Fans called for his removal
Stats show a bid decline
Most of the Coaching staff has been fired TWICE
Nothing in the playoffs
Lost the division last year to the Panthers who were not good
SO WHY is he still HC????