PFF Tribe Releases Bucs 2026 Win-Total
July 19th, 2026
Tribal warnings.
Oh, boy. We can just hit fast-forward to February. Thanks to the PFF tribe, we already know what the Bucs will do this fall.
Mason Cameron of the PFF tribe has the Bucs at 8.5 wins for 2026. Joe isn’t shook by this. First, it’s the PFF tribe. Second, through four seasons, Bucs coach Todd Bowles is 2-2 when it comes surpassing the Vegas preseason win-total.
In 2022 and 2025, the Bucs did not live up to their hype. In 2023 and 2024, the Bucs surpassed their preseason win-total.
That also means Baker Mayfield guided the Bucs to better-than-expected records in two of his three Tampa Bay seasons.
The Bucs’ 2026 win-total currently stands at 8.5. Given how awful the NFC South landfill is, Joe would not be shocked if the Bucs beat that projected win-total — and that’s good enough to win win the NFC South.
Year — Projected Wins — (Final)
2022 — 11.5 — (8)
2023 — 6.5 — (9)
2024 — 7.5 — (10)
2025 — 9.5 — (8)
July 19th, 2026 at 10:36 am
The only thing keeping this team down is the head coach. Not the roster…just the lifeless statue on the sideline allowing teams to throw the ball at will having his corners leave enough space between them and the receivers to park a city bus.
Bucs end up 3rd in the NFC south best case unless something drastically changes
July 19th, 2026 at 10:47 am
7 wins – 10 loses
– 3rd in the NFC South
– New HC
– New DC
– New OC
– New QB
Lord help us.
July 19th, 2026 at 10:49 am
If MarineBuc is right about the record, he’s right about the changes.
July 19th, 2026 at 10:50 am
Just make sure new GM, too.
July 19th, 2026 at 10:56 am
Well usually what happens in life is what you don’t think about.
2-15
Bowles retained
Licht retained
Bye Baker
Hello Michael Penix
July 19th, 2026 at 10:58 am
@ Mod
“Just make sure new GM, too.”
I was trying to be gentle…
Some of these folks can’t take the full reality of the current situation.
July 19th, 2026 at 11:00 am
Why not just make all of you happy – fire the entire team, the coaches, management, let the fans be the stockholders, build a new stadium. Start all over again. Shades of 1976!
July 19th, 2026 at 11:01 am
FACT: If it wasn’t for Tom Brady – our “ring of honor GM” would have been loaded into a cannon and fired back to New England…
LOL!
July 19th, 2026 at 11:01 am
Healthy Oline could be 1 of the best to go with a really good backfield to take pressure off mayfield
A younger faster defense at linebacker and front and maybe a freak on the edge? They stay healthy ..Dont forget the chip on their shoulders something to prove…They shock the world with 12 wins another division title.
July 19th, 2026 at 11:09 am
Lifetime .500 W/L headcoach
PTSD is clawing its way back into my consciousness as the season nears
July 19th, 2026 at 11:13 am
11-6 or 12-5. Depending on injuries, of course. This is the no critical long term injuries stat.
July 19th, 2026 at 11:27 am
Joe,
I’m curious why you say that the NFC South is a landfill. That narrative is a bit antiquated at this point in time.
Relatively speaking, the Panthers are a better team than the Bucs. And the Saints are an up-and-coming team who spanked us last year.
Yeah, ATL is in a rebuild.
But since we don’t/can’t dominate our division and we had a losing record against our division last year, I don’t think we’re in a position to call the NFC South a landfill unless we include the Bucs as being a bad team too. And I don’t.
So, I don’t think the NFC South
July 19th, 2026 at 11:28 am
*is a landfill
July 19th, 2026 at 11:28 am
Uuummm…
July 19th, 2026 at 11:33 am
LOL Marine
JL had a short run of brilliance with Wirfs, Suh, JPP, Fornette, Gronk, Brady and a couple others. It’s been a slow slide since. Cannon at the ready.
July 19th, 2026 at 11:45 am
Uuummm. Joe. In 2023 the Bucs went 3-1 against the NFC North. In 2024 the Bucs went 3-1 against the NFC East. In 2025 the Bucs went 3-1 against the NFC West. How about them apples?
July 19th, 2026 at 11:48 am
The NFC East was worse than the NFC South last year, Joe.
So, the NFC East is the landfill and we’re the next level up, whatever that is.
Collective records in 2025:
NFC South: 30-38
NFC East: 27-40-1
July 19th, 2026 at 11:53 am
Based on 2025 win-loss records, the NFC East is the worst division in the NFC.
So, we are in a more competitive division than that and shouldn’t take our division foes lightly.
July 19th, 2026 at 12:13 pm
This is so entertaining, I love all of the Bucs executives commenting telling us how the offseason is going to go next year. At some point you incredibly insightful people will understand you have absolutely no clue what’s going to happen week one, week 9, or week 18. I mean most of you experts are still looking stupid for rooting for the Bucs to lose out last year so Bowles would be fired. How’d that go?
July 19th, 2026 at 12:43 pm
A reflection of the HC/DC… 50/50 production
July 19th, 2026 at 12:57 pm
@Marine,
Since when?!
July 19th, 2026 at 1:08 pm
Welp, since the draft went very well (yall just wait to see what Bain and Trotter adds)…
i hit the casino last week and put a dime on us winning the nfc south AND nfc champs…we’ll see. im still guessing 8 wins if Todd doesnt change his ways, but he’s on the hot seat now so, i think he will adjust and we’re in the playoffs.
Bake just needs to get on board, take a little less money so theres enough to go around for everyone, and make some others smile also.
July 19th, 2026 at 1:23 pm
It’s pretty simple. Todd (not Baker) has to get 10+ wins and at least one playoff win or it’s forced retirement time. ZRob staying depends on how the offense performs and if Baker is signed up for 2027. A new coach may pass on Baker for 2027 and move on. It’s ALL on the HC, not the QB. As I stated many times there are more than a team’s that would happily take Baker over what they currently have at QB including EVERY team in the NFC South.
July 19th, 2026 at 1:32 pm
Bring on the season.
Going to be a lot of people exposed (nationally and locally) as clueless this year one way or another.
July 19th, 2026 at 1:34 pm
“Marine Buc Says:
July 19th, 2026 at 11:01 am
FACT: If it wasn’t for Tom Brady – our “ring of honor GM” would have been loaded into a cannon and fired back to New England…
LOL!”
………………………………………………………..
He built a decent team by the time BA (notable exception: QB)
The TRUE test of a genius GM would have been to know that Jameis AND Mariota were gonna be busts, and trade the pick for a competent QB and draft picks
July 19th, 2026 at 1:36 pm
MarineBuc seems to be an idiot with an agenda..
FACT if it wasn’t for the GM (who was able to sign Brady and build the infrastructure to attract Brady) then Brady never signs here.
But the truth doesn’t fit your agenda or perhaps you’re not smart enough to is reality.
July 19th, 2026 at 1:41 pm
I believe I’m still at 9 wins – mainly due to the team getting off to a hot start, then, per usual, Baker falls apart because he’s “injured.” But, again, would love to be wrong and see a consistent Baker for the entire year, if that was to happen the Bucs would easily pass that win total.
July 19th, 2026 at 2:01 pm
@marine ..The current situation isn’t the past results! Thats why it’s called the current situation…
July 19th, 2026 at 2:11 pm
Munchkin, just stop writing after “would love to be wrong.” We all agree with you. 😉
July 19th, 2026 at 3:25 pm
Erik with Clean Athletics … ‘Relatively speaking, the Panthers are a better team than the Bucs. And the Saints are an up-and-coming team who spanked us last year. Yeah, ATL is in a rebuild.’
Interesting assessment Erik. Falcons IMO are the best team in the NFC South, but with the same historic problem the Bucs have: lack of consistency. For example, Falcons were 2-2 last year when they had an early BYE, then their world fell apart & they went 2-7 (just like the Bucs) before ending the season with 4 straight wins (another ‘Tale of 3 Seasons in One’). If their OLine holds up & protects Tua (Penix is toast), they MIGHT have a winning record this season. Last season they had FOUR games in which they scored 10 pts or less (lost all 4). That’s not good.
Panthers are more consistent (never lost more than 2 games in a row last year), but they also only followed a win with another win ONCE last season. Hot-cold-hot-cold-hot-cold. And they had FIVE games in which they scored 10 pts or less (lost all 5). That’s even worse.
And the Saints are a conundrum to me. Started off the year woefully bad (2-10) before going getting hot to end the season on a 4-out-of-5 win streak. But their 6 wins were all against teams with losing records (some woefully bad, with a combined 34-68 record last year). Their biggest problem was their offense; only scored 306 pts (18 PPG average won’t win much in today’s NFL).
I still believe (HOPE?) that the Bucs can pull off a 10-7 record this season, IF we can stay reasonably healthy. Of course that’s the secret every year it seems (Bucs’ record is MUCH better when we don’t own the injury records).
Bucs scored 380 pts last season (#18 ranking). The #10 ranking team scored 437 pts last year (and 425 pts in 2024 & 396 pts in 2023). So scoring 437 pts SHOULD get us a Top-10 ranking offensively (viable goal), equating to 25.7 PPG average. If MOST stay healthy of course (including Baker).
Bucs surrendered 411 pts last season (#20 ranking). The #10 ranking team allowed only 346 pts last year (and 364 pts in 2024 & 350 pts in 2023). So 346 pts Allowed SHOULD get us a Top-10 ranking defensively (viable goal), equating to 20.4 PPG average. That’s very close to what we averaged AFTER THE BYE last year during our long losing streak, and we’ve beefed up our defense considerably since then. SHOULD be doable.
Among other factors, our defense doing better requires that our offense & Special Teams do better this year. Giveaways always hurt our defense standing because that’s where the points show up (21 pts charged against our defense last season were scored while our defense was sitting on the bench), plus a number of ‘short fields’ that resulted in pts surrendered. IF both our offense AND defense rank in the Top-10, there’s no reason we can’t end with at least a 10-7 record, win the division, and HOPEFULLY make some noise in the playoffs.
July 19th, 2026 at 3:28 pm
7 wins…Lee and I have similar thoughts and doubts about this team, coach, and QB…
July 19th, 2026 at 4:25 pm
What a bunch of negative Nancy’s,, bucs will be over 500
July 19th, 2026 at 4:46 pm
Joe, I’d love to see a position by position breakdown of if the Bucs have improved or regressed since the Super Bowl win. Brady, JPP, Suh, Fournette… right down the line… is there any position the Bucs are better?
Coaches and GMs always talk about improvement. Where is it?
July 19th, 2026 at 5:54 pm
There’s a reason Vegas gets it right so often. Sports are rigged 1000%.
This is all just a soap opera for fat guys. When the script is in your favor, enjoy it.
July 19th, 2026 at 5:58 pm
@view132 I feel the same way. They try to word it as reloading as the cap hell took place. Now here we are with draftees and stop gap players and coaches. I knew it had to happen to pay for the run. But when do we get back running again? Might be building things up to go all in after the Rams have their turn.
July 19th, 2026 at 6:20 pm
So based on past performance by PFF we are either going to be a 5 win team or an 11 win team.
July 19th, 2026 at 6:23 pm
Please tell defense rules its a new season! UGH!
July 19th, 2026 at 7:00 pm
The NFC East had 27 wins in 2025.
The AFC North had 29 wins in 2025.
And while the NFC South had only a slightly higher win total with 30 wins in 2025, the NFC South was the only division in which every team in the division faced every team in two divisions with the most wins in 2025 – the 41 win NFC West and the 36 win AFC East (tied with the AFC South). So, the NFC South’s 30 wins came against the toughest competition the NFL had to offer in 2025!
July 19th, 2026 at 7:23 pm
Four factors favor the Bucs having a higher win total in 2026:
First, the Offense is likely to be healthier and have better depth. The OL should improve with the return of Skule, the addition of OG Schrauth, and the continued development of Chukwuma. And, losing Evans should be offset by having Godwin and McMillan healthy plus the addition of Hurst. And, a healthy Irving plus the addition of Gainwell may net a slight gain over the loss of White.
Second, the Defense should be better just from replacing two ILBs whose seasons did not earn starting grades. Adding Bain in place of Reddick and Robinson in place of Hall should be net gains. And, while Dean is a loss, it should be make up for by Parrish and the addition of Scott.
Third, Special Teams should benefit from the addition of coach with a legacy of success with fewer yards surrender in kick and punt coverage.
Finally, the competition is different this year. Last year the Bucs faced every team in the 41 win NFC West; this year it faces every team in the 38 win NFC North. Last year the Bucs faced every team in the 36 win AFC East; this year the Bucs face the 29 win AFC North. And, in the non division matchups, the Bucs face the 12-5 Rams in place of the 12-5 Texans, and the Bucs face the 7-9 Cowboys in place of the 9-8 Lions. Overall, the Bucs face two divisions with 10 fewer wins in 2025, and two non division teams with 2 fewer wins than the teams the Bucs faced in 2025.
Also, most of the Bucs losses last year were by one score of less, and
July 19th, 2026 at 7:27 pm
Also, three of the Bucs losses in 2025 were by three points or less, four were by four point or less, and five were by five points or less. The Bucs don’t have to do much more than they did against lesser competition last year to shift the win total in their favor by several games.
Just Winning the three games the Bucs lost by three points in 2025 takes the Bucs to 11-6, and this team, if at all healthy and with better depth, should be four net points per game better this year if the defense just gives up two fewer points and the offense just scores two more points.
July 19th, 2026 at 7:44 pm
11-6,,, healthy line , healthy qb, healthy WRs ,,, healthy RBs ,, a much better OC ,, a much improved D , and a much(not even close ) improved special teams !
We proved last year we could beat anyone on our best day,,,, more best days this year
July 19th, 2026 at 9:46 pm
Marine Buc Says:
“FACT: If it wasn’t for Tom Brady – our “ring of honor GM” would have been loaded into a cannon and fired back to New England”
FACT: if not for Jason Lichtm we would never had gotten Arians, Brady, and a second Superbowl. Play that on your fiddle.
July 19th, 2026 at 10:07 pm
With that schedule….
IF they win 7 games then I’ll reevaluate…
Don’t believe that day will come this season!
July 19th, 2026 at 10:27 pm
Just finished Quarterback on Netflix. Say what you want about Baker but this guy actually cares. He fights his butt off plays hurt and is willing to do whatever it takes to win. Been a Bucs Fan since 97 and seen a lot players walk through the door here and just collect a check and not care and not play hard. Pay Baker it’s hard to find players like him.
July 20th, 2026 at 12:17 am
Stpetematt’s optimism is such a joy to witness – the Bucs have had 12+ wins twice in their 50-year history – Matt’s mom proudly affixes the “My Son is Citizen of the Month” to the back of the minivan she drives him in to school at Gibbs – he’s such a good boy – always with a cheery outlook – now if we could only get him promoted out of the eleventh grade after two tries
July 20th, 2026 at 1:36 am
Over
July 20th, 2026 at 6:59 am
This is an 8 win team with this coaching staff. Mayfield magic and oustanding rookie class in Bain, Scott, Trotter and Hurst could do enough to push this team to 9 wins.
July 20th, 2026 at 7:54 am
OWENERSHIP will never spend money until the fans give up on the Bucs completly
July 20th, 2026 at 9:02 am
@ bonzai
There is absolutely 0% chance the Bucs a SB without:
– TB12
– Gronk
– AB
Keep living in the land of delusion and I will keep play my “fiddle”…
LOL!
July 20th, 2026 at 9:10 am
@ Bonzai
Let’s be honest here…
Jason Licht set the table.
Tom Brady and friends cooked the gourmet meal and served it.
You know it’s true.
Either way it’s all good in the hood bro.