Defenses didn’t need cryptologists to decipher Josh Grizzard’s tendencies last season.

It seems the most recent Bucs offensive coordinator (Josh Grizzard) was telegraphing plays.

The new Bucs offensive coordinator (Zac Robinson) seemed to be doing the same. But there’s a difference.

Joe just learned of former Eagles researcher Ryan Paganetti (@RyanPaganetti) on Twitter. He’s pumping out really, really good statistical data.

For example, his research shows that this century [“at least”] no NFL defense has prevented an offense from scoring a touchdown when it began a series on first-and-goal and ran a quarterback sneak on each snap. That’s pretty wild.

Other data: Last year no team had a bigger difference than Tampa Bay when using 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three receivers) from shotgun to having the quarterback under center.

All of the following data was on early downs, first- or second-downs.

When Grizzard had Baker Mayfield in shotgun in 11 personnel, Mayfield threw out 76 percent of the time. The Bucs threw the ball in 11 personnel when Mayfield was under center 24 percent of the time. That was the biggest gap in the NFL.

So basically, Grizzard was tipping his pitches. Nothing like flashing the defense what you likely will do. Maybe this is why the Bucs’ second-down production was poor last season?

But Grizzard is gone. Robinson is here. So Joe what did Robinson do in Atlanta under the same circumstances? Robinson wasn’t a whole lot better. Robinson and Atlanta had the fifth-widest margin using 11 personnel.

The Dixie Chicks threw the ball out of 11 personnel when in shotgun 81 percent of the time. When Atlanta quarterbacks were in 11 personnel under center, Robinson threw it 37 percent of the time.

So while Robinson may have tipped pitches more in shotgun than Grizzard, he also ran the ball more when his quarterbacks were under center in 11 personnel.

The difference is that Robinson had Bijan Robinson. Yeah, Grizzard had Bucky Irving who can run and catch, but he was banged up and missed quite a few games.

We’ll see if Robinson can mix things up more now that he’s working with a better quarterback, who can throw and run, and better receivers.

11 Personnel Early Down Run/Pass Tendency by QB Alignment
2025 Regular Season + Playoffs

Many defensive coordinators are now layering their calls so they are conditional on if you lined up in shotgun or under center

data via @FantasyPtsData pic.twitter.com/7KqFgXrq8E

— Ryan Paganetti (@RyanPaganetti) July 17, 2026