Another Losing-Season Prediction
July 18th, 2026
Given how sportsbooks have the Buccaneers as the favorite to win the NFC South, Joe thought more national analysts would take that ball and run with it, considering the sad collection of quarterbacks in the division not named Baker Mayfield.
But it’s been a relatively even split to date when it comes to Bucs prognostications for 2026. Some have the Bucs with a winning record; some have them as losers for the second consecutive season.
Over at TheAthletic.com, longtime Raiders, 49ers and NFL writer Vic Tafur made calls on every NFL team yesterday when it comes to where they will land after the regular season in relations to their projected win totals.
He sees the Bucs as losers.
Perhaps what most interested Joe is Tafur’s comments about Mike Evans.
Tafur covers the 49ers. Do these comments reflect what Tafur heard at 49ers headquarters during spring practices?
Buccaneers under 8.5 (-130)
Evans jumping ship after 12 seasons, despite the Buccaneers offering more money than the 49ers did, should sound off alarms. Maybe he knows Baker Mayfield can no longer hold up for a full season at age 31. Mayfield was hobbling with knee, arm and elbow injuries last season, and though he hasn’t missed a game in three years, his toughness overshadows his effectiveness down the stretch. Maybe Evans knows Todd Bowles is just a .500 coach (35-33 with Tampa Bay).
That said, I love rookie pass rusher Rueben Bain Jr., and the division is still wide open, so a one-game improvement and nine wins is definitely possible.
Joe loves Miami Mauler edge rusher Rueben Bain, too, and Joe thinks he could have a strong impact like, say, 2023 rookies Will Anderson and Byron Young.
Anderson had 7 sacks and 22 quarterback hits as a rookie; Young was right with him with 8 sacks and 61 tackles.
Hey, that’s the same year a Bucs rookie hamed YaYa Diaby had 7 1/2 sacks in limited playing time because, well, Diaby needed to learn more of the defense before Todd Bowles would let him hunt quarterbacks more often.
As for Evans, the full truth on why he left Tampa Bay has yet to be revealed. It’s leading to widespread speculation (see above) that Evans left because of Bowles and/or Mayfield.
Joe wonders whether Bucs officials or players will ever clear the air on that subject.
July 18th, 2026 at 10:00 pm
A 1-4 record to finish the season against putrid teams could be a big reason why Mike got out of Dodge.
Carolina, Atlanta, New Orleans, Dolphins, Carolina.
All sub .500 teams and we barely beat the Panthers in game 17.
Plus the same guy responsible for a defense that couldn’t stop a wet fart was retained.
We all know Mike’s thoughts on the defense.
July 18th, 2026 at 10:04 pm
Why did Evans leave? Probably seeing his heir apparent drafted started him thinking and then people started to take him for granted and assume he was a Buc for life and would meekly go out to pasture like Lavonte and that did not appeal to him. Then the 2025 2-dash-7 collapse and Bowles not stopping it this time, 3rd and 28 might have been the final straw and if not thatbit was the Miami loss. Mike saw the loafers and his teammates quit on plays. Seems like Bowles held no one accountable. Mike had enough and saw a crowded WR room in Tampa and Bowles still HC in 2026. San Fran gives him a chance to be the focal point again and he thinks he can put them above Seattle and the Rams. Good luck Mike.
July 18th, 2026 at 10:40 pm
wonders whether Bucs officials or players will ever clear the air on that subject”.
Sounds like more than a few people know what happened with Mike. JBF readers don’t have a clue, that’s for sure.
And it’s an idea. Why don’t you give us some clues, Joe? It’d be fun.
July 18th, 2026 at 10:40 pm
This team is still a couple drafts away from fielding an above average defense. It’s going to get ugly again this year starting with a torching in game 1: The offense should be able to score more but not enough. 7-10.
July 18th, 2026 at 11:10 pm
I think it’s unethical to publish these as credible predictions unless you also publish the whole list of prediction that person may last year. Tell me who had Seattle in New England in the super Bowl. Tell me who Detroit had out of the playoffs. These predictions aren’t worth the paper they’re written on. If these prognosticators knew anything they wouldn’t be sharing it they’d be putting their money down.
July 18th, 2026 at 11:19 pm
Some don’t like the predictions that don’t match their rose colored view of what they feel the team is capable of.
But I have a feeling that they would love it if someone was intoxicated enough to predict a 12-5 upcoming season.
Talk is cheap. Results tell the truth.
July 18th, 2026 at 11:35 pm
5-12.
July 18th, 2026 at 11:50 pm
Evans left because of the fans acting like he was going to retire, when he still felt he had more game in him.
There was an interview following the season where he commented on this. It’s why he bolted without giving a TB press conference… he felt the fans turned on him.
July 19th, 2026 at 12:27 am
@ VegetableLasagna – Exactly. I was thinking the same thing… They would’ve never said, even the FIRST WORD, had all these ‘predictions’ been Super Bowl “FAVORITES” Bucs. It’s just really embarrassing for an ADULT to have their ‘feelings’ HURT like that, over something so weak. It just goes to show how insecure THEY ARE with their convictions, & etc. BUT, it has a lot more to do with their own damaged EGO.
July 19th, 2026 at 1:21 am
Evans had two goals to strive to achieve – continuing his accumulation of 1,000 yard seasons and winning football games on the road to more playoff opportunities.
After 2024, it was obvious that the Bucs needed a top ILB to be a winner.
With a top WR room – not knowing the injury to McMillan and the new injury to Godwin were coming – the Bucs used their top pick in 2025 to take a WR who could only take yards away from Evans, and they did nothing to improve the ILB room. Added to that, the new OC was a bust.
With neither winning nor adding to his total of 1,000 yard seasons supported by the Bucs 2024 off season, why would Evans stay? Just to hope that 2025 would be different and better?
Ironically, I think that Evans may have jumped ship too soon. If the team stays healthy, I think that the new OC will have a successful run game that will force the opposing defenses into the box and create big strike opportunities for the WRs when the Bucs do throw the ball. I think that Evans have gotten the 60 yards per game needed over 17 games to reach a 1,000 on just two or three receptions per game in this offense.
July 19th, 2026 at 1:27 am
@VegetableLasagna
I would go 12 games given the option to count regular and post season wins.
11-6 with 1 post season win sees doable.
July 19th, 2026 at 2:05 am
It really doesn’t matter why Mike Evans left. It’s over and done with.
What does matter is how this team plays this year.
1. We still have a great WR group. Evans will emotionally be mised, but not productively missed.
2. We don’t need the defense to be Top 5…though I that would be great. We need it to stop an average of one more score per game during the regular season. If it does that and the offense stays healthy… we’ll win 11+ games.
July 19th, 2026 at 4:43 am
FMD
I think you are spot on.
July 19th, 2026 at 4:55 am
Evans leaving is no mystery! The 49ers are SB ready winning double-digit games for the past 5 seasons. Problem with them is it’s win now or they’re rebuilding in a year or two. They will have McCaffrey, Evans, Kittle & Pearsall. Their roster is full of 29- and 30-year-olds so the clock is running fast. The Bucs have talent, but no depth. A healthy Bucs team can and usually does compete with anyone. I’ll take the over 8.5 wins.
July 19th, 2026 at 5:11 am
Let’s remember that Mike left before Licht beefed up this front 7 which had stagnated (at best) since the Super Bowl run. Even if it’s only 20% better than it has been in recent years it should be enough to win us 2-3 more games minimum. I don’t see either side of the ball being worse than they were last season barring something unexpected (injuries etc).
July 19th, 2026 at 6:07 am
One thing is for sure about rookies-they will play like rookies………………………
July 19th, 2026 at 6:14 am
Bucnjim. Evans leaving is still a mystery to me. And you might know more than me. But saying the Niners are SB ready winning double-digit games for the past 5 seasons? They won 6 games the year before last- in 2024. So, knowing that you don’t know that, there’s also the possibility that you are wrong about Evans. Oh, bother!
July 19th, 2026 at 6:29 am
Tafur likes the word ‘maybe’ because he doesn’t know anything. Maybe he’s got a quota to pump out articles and so maybe his opinion is no better than any of us. Maybe.
July 19th, 2026 at 6:46 am
That sad collection of QB’s in this division regularly carves up Bowles defense.
They lost Evan’s by continually choosing to keep a half arsed defensive coordinator as a head coach rather than continuity with an offense that was setting all the franchise records.
Watching Coen and Canales both out perform Bowles is a mind screw to all of us, imagine what it must feel like to be directly affected by it in the team.
Those stripes in Bowles are deep and wide and they aren’t changing at 60+ years old. He’s a just above a .500 coach at best when he has a great offense to carry him through his inevitable mid-season slump of team lacking motivation. He took a 6-2 team straight into a nose dive last year and had no answer for how to bring them back up. His answer was to throw a pathetic pity party in a post game presser full of half hearted curse words….and that had zero effect on the team the next week.
Get ready for more of the same this season, its like clock work. Robinson will only be able to squeeze so much blood out this offensive turnip that has much less talent than the one Coen was able to manipulate into success. The reciever room is worse, the running back room is worse, the offensive line is all coming off of lingering injuries and are older, and the QB is coming off of an injury plagued season and history days he’ll get injured again given his style of play.
They put all the eggs this offseason into the defensive basket. The onus is 100% on Bowles to deliver with rookies young players across the board. Why does he have to do it with all young players? Because he hasnt developed a single player from the last five drafts. They’ve all been cut and had their careers stumped and stalled.
July 19th, 2026 at 6:50 am
Thinking the predictions may be roster related.
Brady/Mayfield
Evans/Egbuka
LVD/SVD
Lost 3 hall of fame players and replaced them with guys. Wirfs is the closest one but he was already here. The front office says we’re getting better. Younger is a better word.
July 19th, 2026 at 8:33 am
No one predicted a Seahawks/Patriots Superbowl either.
Some predictions come true, but many end up being way off.
What is Tafur’s (who?) track record predicting?
July 19th, 2026 at 8:51 am
This is why you let the season play out because another season like last year are they don’t get to the NFC championship Bowles is gone. And what new HC is going want Baker he’s probably gonna want his own quarterback. He’s going to want a young quarterback so he can have a chance to keep his job longer than 2 years. This team is set up perfectly for a young quarterback and it’s not set up for a quarterback that’s 32 years old next year and has never been a elite quarterback.
July 19th, 2026 at 8:52 am
Offense should be better. Defense is another story. Corner backs and linebackers are still a big question mark. Where’s the quality depth at these positions? Im going out on a limb and predicting 8-9 and they keep Bowles.
July 19th, 2026 at 9:17 am
Joe, Baker might be the best QB in the division. Unfortunately you don’t have to have the best QB to beat Todd Bowles defense. Just ask the rookies Shough, and Ewers.
July 19th, 2026 at 9:19 am
Oneilbuc. You can say that a new head coach would probably want his own QB. That wouldn’t be true, Oneilbuc. In fact, just the opposite would be true.
But if you were to say, Baker wouldn’t want another head coach- well, then, that would be true.
Some might say that you don’t know up from down, Oneilbuc. Or true from false. I’d stick with shlt from shinolum.
July 19th, 2026 at 9:54 am
You have to handicap win totals by how much a team relies on one person… if Mayfield gets injured, they might not win a game. And he’s been getting banged up a lot.
July 19th, 2026 at 10:21 am
Todd Bowles has NEVER won more than 10 games in a season…ever as HC.
-David
July 19th, 2026 at 10:24 am
Not sure why some big mystery needs to be solved with Evans leaving. I dont think you leave a place you’ve spent your entire career at and had tons of success for ONE reason. I think it was a combination of frustration with the defense, a chance to play eith a storied franchise and the place his idol played.
But who really cares? I know Joe really cares. Not sure why, but the guy is gone and it’s time to move on.
Go Bucs 2026!
July 19th, 2026 at 10:46 am
Another real “deep dive” by a hack.
No mention of the entire oline never starting a single game together.
No mention of horrible ST that were significantly upgraded by coaching.
No mention of an upgrade at OC.
One mention of an upgrade on defense, yet no mention of upgrades on DL, edge (Mohammed/walker), no mention of upgrades at LBer.
All about Evans. A 33 yr old WR with bad hammies.
Bucs stay healthy they win 10. Cant predict health.
July 19th, 2026 at 10:52 am
The 49er projected win total for 2024 was 11.5. Tafur picked them to go over and they ended up winning 6 games. In 2025 the 49ers win total was projected to be 10.5 and he predicted them to win over that total and they won 12. I wouldn’t put too much stock into what he thinks. He knows Bowles is a .500 coach and we know he’s a .500 prognosticator.
July 19th, 2026 at 11:06 am
The Bucs should be improved this season, which gives them a winning record. Last year was exceptionally bad for injuries, particularly on OLine and WR. Odds are that was an outlier, and Bucs will have fewer that wipe out a squad, plus depth is slightly improved. The NFC-South continues to be bad, and any record over .500 will be in contention for a Division title. However, in Todd Bowles’ 8 year head coaching career, he’s never exceeded 10 wins, and has only done that twice. Overall, he still has a losing record despite being 2 games over .500 with the Bucs in the regular season. And although the Defense has gotten a big face-lift, Bowles remains as DC. The data suggests the Buc’s ceiling at 10 wins, but odds are they fall just short at a 9-8 record. That would probably win the NFC-S , particularly if Bucs have 4 or 5 wins against division foes. The Offense will have to play lights out under Robinson to exceed 10 wins, which likely results in him leaving for a HC job.
July 19th, 2026 at 11:42 am
the bucs can easily have a losing season and not make the playoffs. nobody should be shocked if either thing happens.
that said there were plenty of idiots last year predicting all kinds of stupid things for the bucs. hopefully the ted hurst gold jacket thread doesnt get started too soon.