Warren Sharp: Bucs Draft Ranked Strong For Value
April 26th, 2026
Bucs GM Jason Licht.
If one is going to try to apply math to draft picks, the Bucs just had a fairly strong draft.
And who else would try to inject math into projections than a handicapper? In this instance, it is noted handicapper Warren Sharp.
Before the draft, Sharp, on his website Sharp Football Analysis, rated the top 250 prospects, ranking them Nos 1-250. So say Sharp had a player ranked No. 40. If a team took that player at No. 41, the team got +1 grade for the pick. If the No. 40-rated player was drafted at No. 39 it would be a -1.
Using this system, the Bucs came out with the seventh-best value score this weekend., meaning Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht took advantage of several players slipping in the draft.
Interestingly, the 49ers, per Sharp, reached on way too many players and have been for a few years now. Sharp raked 49ers general manager John Lynch over the coals as a result.
best value 2026 NFL draft classes
1. Commanders
2. Panthers
3. Colts
4. Bengals
5. Jets
6. Giants
7. Buccaneers
8. Raiders
9. Falcons
10. Chiefssee pic for 1-32 plus methodology
READ FULL ANALYSIS:https://t.co/RaVIrqOuUj
team-by-team & round-by-round analysis to follow ? pic.twitter.com/P9BAQwNGHW
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) April 25, 2026
April 26th, 2026 at 12:13 am
i’m still a bit irked about not jumping up into the higher 30’s to land jrod
April 26th, 2026 at 12:19 am
Value.
As in they’ll never cost much.
Brilliant. Gotta love Groundhog Day.
April 26th, 2026 at 12:21 am
also looking forward to landing a UFA gem or two…
the front office is good – so they might be maneuvering
April 26th, 2026 at 12:33 am
Bain was an amazing situation didn’t see that one coming. But overall, you can gripe about the linebacker they took if you want, it’s fine. They needed one, they got someone physical, which is the direction they want to go with the defense, and I’m all for that.They signed Alex for the coverage issue, and oh wait the improved pass rush is going to make coverage a lot easier for this secondary. I liked this draft.
April 26th, 2026 at 12:33 am
I’ve come all the way around to the the importance of this consideration of positional value. It translates to four years of extra cap dollars/contract money to retain valuable players on the roster and make moves in free agency to fill holes and offset injury impacts. A team is drafting a player for a term of a contract and with that player comes spending power over that term. Draft picks are assets beyond a player and his performance.
Top left has secured the most projected spending power over the term of these contracts and the lower right traded that projected spending power away for whatever reasons. Some cases are a fitting use of assets- scheme fit, glaring need but then there is whatever the Jaguars did. Their draft mystifies me.
This is all projection. These prospects still need to outperform their slotted rookie deals so by no means are the Comanches the next bully anymore than the Jags are doomed.
I like how the Bucs retain so many players and drafting like they do for positional value frees up money to do it. Good job Licht.
April 26th, 2026 at 1:30 am
Ash. That’s what I’ve bin saying. Trotter wasn’t drafted to go cover he’s here to help in the run game. Alex his good at both and trotter will get to learn from him. Bucs got a lot more physical this offseason but only time will tell if it pays off. I for 1 am excited about what the Bucs did and can’t wait for the season to start
April 26th, 2026 at 1:45 am
Hopein1Hand- by far one of the most astute and PROFOUND posts I’ve read on here!!! The performance or expectation is inconsequential….. IF they added that matrix into their dialogue when discussing said impact on ANY draft pick…….. Wow………
So little we know, yet so much we pontificate on here on what we THINK we know……
Still, what galvanizes us all on here is “go bucs”. So let us bask in that consensus that if nothing else, we all seek the same, just not privy to how we get there.
With that said, my inner cave man says I want a Lombardi trophy more often than on average once a quarter century…..
April 26th, 2026 at 1:48 am
3-14 coming. Bowels sucks.
April 26th, 2026 at 1:51 am
If Sharp’s system is as simple as described, it gives no greater weight to first round picks than it does to sevenths round picks which seems unlikely.
Surely there is more value in a first round pick who falls five or ten spots than there is to an early seventh round pick who falls the same number of spots.
If so, I suspect that the overwhelming factor in calculating the Bucs draft value was Bain’s slide to 15.
And, if not, using a seventh round pick to move up in the sixth round for a TE who was rated seventh round to undrafted free agent should have torpedoed the
Bucs draft value.
Rodriguez was very productive with great film, and he performed well on the athletic testing at the combine; I would have taken him if he was available.
Anthony Hill, Jr. produced sacks and turnovers in both pass defense and run defense with great film, and his performance in the athletic testing at the combine was superior. He was definitely my number two ILB.
Taking Trotter, who produced no turnovers and clearly lacked a dimension on film, and who did not run at the combine or his pro day, and who has a history of knee injuries, seems to have been a case of making the worst of a good situation.
Drafting a rocket like Keionte Scott to play beside Trotter or behind Trotter or to possibly substitute for Trotter in some situations seems like essential compensation. Based on the way Bain and Scott were sometimes used at Miami, perhaps the Bucs will take Trotter off the field quite a bit which makes the second round pick more baffling. That like going around your ass to get to your elbow knowing that Hill was waiting to hear his name called.
The rest, I am pretty much okay. I still believe that a top NT like McDonald will do more for a team than any edge rusher, and the Bucs should have been able to move back and pick up a third round pick and still have taken McDonald. Perhaps Bain will prove that I am wrong. But, I liked a lot of later Edge guys as situational pass rushers in the third and fourth rounds.
Aside from Trotter, the Bucs made at least plausible efforts to plug the holes in the ship. The team should be better this year. It should win the division. If Anzalone stays healthy, maybe they do more than just win the division.
April 26th, 2026 at 2:09 am
Lynchmob, I agree on Bowles but he is Mr Mediocrity so 3 wins will not happen, especially in the NFC South. I think that Bowles has a 10 win ceiling and a 7 win floor, Mr Mediocreity and while that could beat out Carolina or maybe not for the chance to lose to the #1 wildcard at home,, the Bucs will not be in tge Arch Manning race, I think the ATL is the NFC South team that could be a 3 or 4 win team with their QBs even more fragile than egg shells and a head coach which will bring the Cleveland Brown flush it down losing mentality with him.
April 26th, 2026 at 2:26 am
49ers will still be in the playoffs, lol
April 26th, 2026 at 7:07 am
With this HC and coaching staff I don’t see much development happening with these picks. They love to draft guys and change their positions (AW, Barton, etc…). So who knows what position the coaches will put them in. And of course whe things go of the rails, and they will, the adjustments won’t come until the off-season.
April 26th, 2026 at 7:47 am
Moving up for the stiff TE was a major blunder , but lucky that Bain fell in their lap.
April 26th, 2026 at 7:57 am
The reason I like Sharp is he’s openly admitted his draft pick grades are subjective, and little more than an educated guess based on research.
To think differently, like some do, would make you a buffoon.
Al Davis once selected punter Ray Guy in the first round, and four years later he “punted” them to a Super Bowl victory.
I’m sure we all, including Sharp, would have given the Raiders an F for that draft.
Point being … ya never know.
Predicting draft pick successes or failures is fun, nothing more.
There’s as much science involved as flipping a coin.
If there was a science to it they’d never be a first round bust.
April 26th, 2026 at 8:11 am
check back in two years to see who is better: trotter terror or jrod chief
April 26th, 2026 at 8:14 am
Well said JA.
Here are “Draft Buzz” pre-draft rankings and some measurables.
Rueben Bain Jr – Overall 3rd – 6’ 2” and 263 lbs – 4.72 Forty
Josiah Trotter – Overall 59th – 6’ 2” and 237lbs – 4.61 Forty
Ted Hurst – Overall 84th – 6’ 4” and 204 lbs – 4.42 Forty
Keionte Scott – Overall 61st — 5’ 11” and 187lbs – 4.33 Forty
DeMonte Capehart – Overall 137th – 6’ 5” and 313 lbs – 4.85 Forty
Bill Schrauth – Overall 116th – 6’ 5” and 310 lbs – 5.25 Forty
April 26th, 2026 at 8:20 am
Some of their X accounts:
@ruebenbainjr
@TrotterJosiah
@treeyyy0
@KeionteS
@CapehartDemonte
@BauerSharp15
April 26th, 2026 at 8:25 am
You can’t measure a draft pick by how you feel about Bowles…..
April 26th, 2026 at 9:16 am
Well thank God the Saints didn’t make the cut, then everyone in our division would have had stellar homework type of drafts! And I for one hope the 49ers crap the bed this year and miss the playoffs so bad, and Evans has to watch a pissed off Baker showing up his beloved Purdy! Yeah im italian and hold grudges like that
April 26th, 2026 at 10:26 am
This doesn’t add up for me Joe. Either Sharp got it backward or your example was backward. One or the other. Picking a player at X position if he was ranked higher than X would be best, so not sure how that matches with the example. But it’s early and I’m still recovering from last night so who knows…
April 26th, 2026 at 10:31 am
“You can’t measure a draft pick by how you feel about Bowles…..“
Say this a little louder for the people in the cheap seats!
April 26th, 2026 at 11:00 am
“You can’t measure a draft pick by how you feel about Bowles…..“
This is true. Bowles is the great equalizer. He can make any player, no matter their pedigree or talent, look like a confused, slow and disinterested bust over time. So might as well draft players who will be cheap.
April 26th, 2026 at 11:09 am
Todd Bowles can make:
Rueben Bain look like Conrad Bain (Mr. Drummond)
Josiah “Globe” Trotter look like a Washington General
Ted Hurst look like Patty Hearst
Keionte Scott look like George C. Scott
You have to be old to know who any of these people are.
April 26th, 2026 at 1:21 pm
Bowles might make Capehart look like Bob Newhart.
April 26th, 2026 at 3:42 pm
Didn’t see much value drafting Trotter in the middle of the 2nd round when he would’ve still been there in the third. Also didn’t see value in trading up in the 6th to pick up a tight end that was surly not going to be drafted at all.
April 26th, 2026 at 5:24 pm
No one is talking about Billy and that guy seems like a real keeper to me. He was very cool when drafted. He actually kinda scared me in his interview. His eyes. I expect great things from him.