Bill Polian Was Right (Again)

May 3rd, 2024

Became an NFL statistic.

Joe was listening to Hall of Fame general manager Bill Polian on Wednesday night as he did his weekly “Late Hits” show on SiriusXM NFL Radio. He is so damn good on radio. There isn’t a time that Joe listens and doesn’t learn something about football.

Polian for years has said time and again that first-round draft picks are about a 50/50 shot to make it. Of course, this enrages fans.

Polian said for years and years that has remained consisten, half get a good second contract and half don’t. Polian said in a good year, a first-round crop of players, maybe 60 percent make it.

So it doesn’t always happen, Polian cautioned.

On Wednesday, Polian tipped off his listeners: Wait until the fifth-year option deadline hits. Watch how many of the 2021 first-round picks get their fifth-year option picked up by teams. He said you can just about bank on it that it will be in the 50-60 percent range.

Well, Thursday was the deadline. Per Jeremy Fowler of BSPN, 18 of the 32 first-round draft picks had their fifth-year options picked up by their clubs.

That’s 56 percent. This Polian knows what he is talking about.

Sadly, Bucs’ 2021 first-round pick Joe Tryon-Shoyinka became a statistic. He is in the group that did not have its fifth-year option exercised.

62 Responses to “Bill Polian Was Right (Again)”

  1. Dave Pear Says:

    JTS might actually be good if he had decent coaching. Bowles holds no players accountable for blowing assignments or never learning improved technique.

  2. BillyBucco Says:

    What a crock response Dave.
    Bowels sucks again?
    You are terrible to read.

  3. J Says:

    Stick to your day job, Pear.

  4. Dave Pear Says:


    Bowles was a losing head coach with the Jets.

    Is a losing head coach with the Bucs.

    His alleged specialty, his defense, has been regressing every year since the 2020 season.

    His teams start slow on both sides of the ball. His players make the same mistakes over and over, never receiving corrective action, at least that they can implement. If a player doesn’t already “have it” (LVD, AW2) they plateau or regress.

    Open your eyes. Results and facts speak for themselves.

    I agree he’s a great guy and if he would hire a full time DC so he could spend his time counseling his players about life, he might get to .500 as Bucs head coach.

  5. Capt.Tim Says:

    Bucs are above average on draft picks. Imo.
    Id love to see our breakdown , by round, in the Jason Licht years.
    How many icks were hits. How many were misses.
    I think hed be above the curve.

    I have faith in both of our top picks this year. Plus our new WR is gonna be great..
    I think a couple other picks will be surprise hits.
    Time will tell

  6. David Says:


    So seeing your playing time diminished, losing your starting job that’s not holding someone accountable? Idiotic statement. On top of that, all you have to do is watch JTS to know it ain’t happening. He has a quick burst then has no idea how to get off a block or finish a play. He’s been taught and shown by several people and several other players that do it very well, c ya!!

  7. BUCS TRUCK Says:

    Captain Tim. You’re the man. Seriously. I do agree with you. at least on this.

  8. Dave Pear Says:

    Bowles record as a head coach for the Bucs is…..


    He’s the only head coach that ever gave Tom Brady a losing season in his life.

    Last year’s pass defense? Bottom 3. Worst run game in NFL history for 2 consecutive years. Blows 4th quarters like they were (use your imagination).

    A real coach would take JTS and actually have an improvement plan with metrics . Bowles talks to them but doesn’t get through. He should call Dungy for some advice on that front. But he won’t because he’s a Genius.
    These are facts.

  9. dmatt Says:

    As for JTS, a zebra doesn’t change its colors. For three straight years, he’s JTS, “Just The Same”.


    Dave Pear, no disrespect intended, but to insist that JTS’ shortcomings lie at the feet of Todd Bowles, are just kind of lazy & silly.


    Yaya Diaby is absolutely excelling under the same coaching.

  12. Tony marks Says:

    Dave Pear Says:
    May 3rd, 2024 at 1:09 am

    He’s the only head coach that ever gave Tom Brady a losing season in his life.

    Because he is the only coach that ever got Tom in the year before Tom himself decided it was time to retire.

    You illustrate how isolated stats can be used in all kinds of ways that really don’t make a point within the context of reality.

    I think thats why Foottball fans love isolated stats. you can always find a stat out of context that can make even a totally nonsense take seem rational.

  13. Jeffrey Becker Says:

    gisele cost bowles a winning record as the coach of the bucs, if we’re being honest. or tom himself for promising to spend more time with his family and then never doing it 🙂

  14. adam from ny Says:

    every player to a big extent is just a system player, and how he fits into the system and works with those plugged in around him…

    sure jts might just pop up on another team next year and thrive…or could quietly ride out into the sunset and never be heard from again…

    it’s 50/50 like polian says

  15. MadMax Says:

    Oj Howard, yeah that was a big one that failed (and the way he fell to us, I was for it)…Hargreaves (i didnt know anything about him), Noah spence (once again i knew nothing about him) and of course, the biggest one, Winston…which I was all for because we needed a QB and had the #1 overall. But thats ok, it got us into other positions to draft great players. The trask pick, I didnt have any clue about him…JTS, again, no clue where that came from (i was pushing for OL Landon Dickerson who went a few picks later) But it was pick 32 and basically a 2nd rounder. Logan Hall, yeah on me too, I was pushing for him, but he’s a 2nd rounder.

    Its all good…we got this 🙂

    You hit and miss, its part of the game. Where I hit on is A LOT, Lot bigger than those misses including calling for us to sign for Brady way before anyone else and then saying, hey, go after Baker, offer him 4-6 mill, see what happens.

  16. Capt.Tim Says:

    Buc Trucks,
    Its our opinions and perceptions. Its not important that we agree. But in the best of exchanges- it gives us something to think about
    Im an old man. But It seems that everyone is so angry about opinions that disagree with theirs. Being an old man, Ive been wrong many times. Its ok. I like it when someone is smarter than I am, and points out something I didnt consider.

    All Good, God Bless

  17. MadMax Says:

    Im trying to respond to you Capt. its in mod lol

  18. Defense Rules Says:

    Adam from NY … ‘every player to a big extent is just a system player, and how he fits into the system and works with those plugged in around him’.

    Had never really thought about it from that aspect Adam, but it makes a lot of sense. Teams draft guys to fit their system, and then train them up to optimize their talents within that same system. So if ‘the fit’ isn’t optimum when you draft them, maybe some (a certain percentage up to half?) become a case of trying to fit a square peg in a round hole. JTS (and Hall?) may both fall into that category.

    I remember 2012 when Dom grabbed Safety Mark Barron with our #7 first round pick (ahead of #9 Luke Kuechly, #10 Stephon Gilmore, #12 Fletcher Cox & #15 Bruce Irvin among others). I was ticked (because I’d wanted Kuechly) even though I’m a huge Bama fan. Bucs played Barron at Safety for 3 years then traded him early in his 4th year to the Rams (HC Jeff Fischer & DC Gregg Williams initially, then Wade Phillips later). They promptly modified his role & used him as an ILB, as an OLB & some as a Strong Safety, and he got a lot of playing time for them (75-100% from 2015-2018). They figured out what Schiano & Lovie didn’t … how to best use his talents.

  19. Defense Rules Says:

    Capt Tim … Well said.

  20. heyjude Says:

    Agree that first-round draft picks are about a 50/50 shot to make it. We fans get so excited when we get that huge pick, and sometimes are let down within one or two seasons. Like others have commented it has to do with the system, coaches, and other situations for rookies learning the NFL way with a specific team. One player may not do well with a certain team to only thrive once picked up by another.

    Tom Brady had a rough last season due to his marital situation that ended in divorce. He took off practices and had a lot to deal with off the field. Bowles had nothing to do with Brady’s personal life and it sounds like they did try to help him through it, but only could do so much.

  21. Buccaneer Bonzai Says:

    Not trying to take sides, but Bowles actually is a losing head coach. Even if you only count since he’s been HC of the Bucs.

    It may be painful for some to accept, but it is a fact.

    That said, two things make a successful head coach: A quality QB and a Quality staff.

    Bowles is a very good Defensive coach…and he is a players coach. Unlike Raheem Morris (who was out last player’s coach) when he was here, Bowles exerts a higher level of control.

    There is no doubt that Mayfield and Bowles are bound together at this point. If our new OC is good enough, I could see Bowles having big success this year.

    I am cautiously optimistic about the team this year.

  22. A Bucs Fan Says:

    Todd Bowles gets a mulligan from me in year one for many reasons. He was stuck with Leftwich’s incompetence due to the timing of his hiring, Ali Marpets retirement and Jensens injury, Fournette was out of shape, and Brady’s personal life impacted his play and focus. Football was not Brady’s job in 22 it was his escape. It’s a miracle they won more than 3 games that year.

    23 was Bowles first opportunity with some staff changes. He was stuck with a first time OC that sort of worked out? The best thing that happened to Bowles, I’ll admit, was Baker Mayfield. That was his most important move because his QB helped lead a strapped for cash franchise (80 million dollar bill) relying on a bunch of rookies and a band aid on the oline to the second round of the playoffs. He coached the team to post season success after dropping 3 games below .500 while the selfish baby “captain” of his defense was committing mutiny behind closed doors.

    Todd gets a B for me with the hand he’s been dealt. He still is a little slow on making roster adjustments, and does not use his time outs effectively at all. But this year is the year with a seasoned play caller who has a history of scoring a ton of points, a second year with Baker in the building, and little more breathing room financially. Let’s see the team begin to flourish and bring home double digit wins and a 4th division title in 5 years!

  23. I remember 21 Says:

    Dave Pear is right, despite all the salty talk coming his way. I’m sure he, like I & the rest of you on here, would love for the Bucs to go 17-0 and win the Super Bowl every year. But those of us I consider more realistic are treated like we don’t bring up totally valid concerns or we somehow don’t want what’s best for the team. People act like he’s cherry picking stats… What’s the ultimate stat? Wins & losses. bowles’ career HC win percentage is .426 (including interim stint at MIA, which was actually his best individual win percentage) during the regular season and .333 in the postseason. For those of you bad at math, that is… not good. That doesn’t show me he’s one of the 32 best head coaches in the world. His defense (the ONE thing he’s supposed to be good at) HAS regressed every year since 2020 including bottom 3 in passing yards with 2 top 15 paid CBs (that got paid under his watch) and a top 2 in the league safety. How do you accept that? I sure don’t. As long as we have him as HC, we’re playing with a hand tied behind our back. And that INCLUDES developing players and putting them in the best position to succeed. Yes Diaby is having success under bowles, but that’s only after he was glued to the bench for WAY too long. And don’t even get me started on Ryan Neal.

  24. AlabamaBucsFan Says:

    For first rounders, some positions are safer than others. Offensive lineman picked in the first round seems to have a higher chance to make it than Edge rushers/Defensive line.

  25. Letsbucinggo Says:

    This team should win at least 11 games this year. They definitely had a good draft and improved the o- line. The other teams will regress look for the Saints coach to get fired and Dave Canales will be on shaking ground with the GM headcase.

  26. Beeej Says:

    So, WHEN is the last time the Jets had a winning record? Certainly not SINCE Bowles left. I think it’s a little more than him.

    As for JTS, did he have as 20% missed tackle rate in college too?

  27. Toad Bowels Says:

    Who says I don’t appreciate a nice troll? You really did a plum job here.

  28. Jmarkbuc Says:

    Mad Max

    Add Aguayo to your list.

  29. Jmarkbuc Says:

    JTS just isn’t a football player.

    You can see it like a neon sign when he’s on the field.

    He should have played basketball. Or Lacrosse. Or Water polo.

    One more year and he’s gone.

  30. KABucs Says:

    I agree with A Bucs Fan… most sensible post down here so far. The jury is still out on Bowles. He’s not love you Samantha Greg siano. You may end up being a better Coach than Gruden if you give him some time because Gruden hurt the draft and definitely had some diva issues, also sucked with rookies. Both could end up being more like Dungey if you give him some time.

    Looking at the losing record thing isn’t very accurate. The Jets have sucked for a long time he didn’t have a chance turning that team around. They always suck and they constantly rotate through coaches. He never should have taken that job. A lot of things have to go his way to have a great upcoming season… like hitting well on most of our draft picks and the injury bug has to stay away. If we’re as healthy as we were our Super Bowl season and our first five picks all pan out pretty well, we could have a pretty good season ahead of us. If JTS or Hall have a breakout season, would be wonderful of both did, it would show they’re just late bloomers and not busts, that would definitely help a lot. I’m still behind Bowles for the time being.

  31. JimBobBuc Says:

    Centers are 92% resigned. Edges way down the list. Barton was a smart pick over an edge at 26

  32. PolianWRONG Says:

    Was he right about Lamar Jackson the WR Joe???
    He is not always right and this love affair needs to end now.
    Polian has one more year left lol

  33. Stanglassman Says:

    It’s 50/50 but more embarrassing when you’re picking 1-16 and bust because you choose what was left over. I’d like to see the stat for player #32’s overall 5th-year option rate. It would more than likely be well above 50%.
    Blaming Bowles on JTS not producing would make more sense if coaches like Andy Reed hit on all his picks. That’s not the case. Todd is probably one of the most creative coaches around. He going to scheme up an entirely new position for the kid that suits his talents to try and unlock some production out of him. Most coaches would have just benched the guy. I’m looking forward to seeing this multitool chess piece (JTS) looks like this year.

  34. Larrd Says:

    Polish seems to think a first rounder is a flop if he isn’t there 8 years. I disagree. If Wirfs demands 30M and Bucs say no and trade him or let him walk, that doesn’t make Wirfs a bad or failed pick. The Giants running back Barkley is a good example, too.

  35. Sacker58 Says:

    I’m not a big fan of west coast college players.Everyon knows where the best players are developed ,here in the south.
    Every time I hear us picking a west coast player I cringe mainly because of the hype that surrounded JOE TRYON and lack of production on the field.

  36. Ol' Boy Says:

    Jmarkbuc Says:
    May 3rd, 2024 at 8:08 am
    JTS just isn’t a football player.

    You can see it like a neon sign when he’s on the field.

    Funny you say this and I completely agree. When I see him on the field I can’t help but think he must have walked into the wrong stadium.

  37. rrsrq Says:

    @PolianWrong – I am with you when you are right. Not saying Polian did not hit with some draft picks, but he missed on Lamar Jackson like Licht missing on drafting kickers. Those saying defense regressed under Bowles each year, when you pick near the bottom of the first round, you rarely get the cream of the crop, so you reach based on need. you can not develop what is not there, but you also lose valuable pieces that made your team successful. The Dbs that left got nice contracts and the team lost pro bowlers (Suh, JPP). As far as Licht picking Jameis, he may not have been the best, but players like Adam Humphries, Godwin and Brate got great paydays (and ME stayed on pace for 5 years getting his 1k)due to the FSU QB

  38. Defense Rules Says:

    I remember 21 … ‘And that INCLUDES developing players and putting them in the best position to succeed. Yes Diaby is having success under bowles, but that’s only after he was glued to the bench for WAY too long. And don’t even get me started on Ryan Neal.’

    I think your very 1st sentence is the primary job of every coach; some just achieve that goal quicker than some others. The talent that a coach is GIVEN to work with (yes, by the GM) has a big impact IMO on how well each coach succeeds at his job. I’m sure that Bowles’ defense isn’t an easy defense for those fresh out of a (shortened) college experience to learn.

    Diaby was a 3rd Rnd pick, probably for a reason (I think that most expect that 3rd Rnd picks PROBABLY won’t start, right away at least, their rookie year). Neither of us know for sure how well he was doing in those first days & months grasping Todd Bowles’ defense. Neal was the biggest disappointment of 2023 as a FA signing IMO, but Bowles didn’t sign him … JL did. Oops, my bad; guess that gets you started on that. Fire away

  39. Jake been there since the beginning Says:

    Well I just got say this, I don’t like it when Bowles is just standing there with that look and not even jumping someone’s ass for making a big mistake either. But you gotta really want it in the NFL, and I don’t really see a lot of want coming from JTS. I think that he has always been focused on being around the lime light, not being a part of it. Like showing up to a BBQ in a Tuxedo or something. Look at me I’m in the NFL.. Well he has blown his audition shut the curtain and send him on his way.

  40. Buccos Says:

    If I remember correctly we were beating the Falcons at halftime in Brady’s final game of his final season. And then Bowles pulled the starters in the second half because it didn’t matter if we won that game and he didn’t want anyone to get hurt. I would have left the starters in just so that I wouldn’t have to listen to all these butt pirates talk about Brady’s first losing seasons for the rest of my life. But we could easily have had a winning record that year

  41. Buccaneer rick Says:

    Is there any way Joe can start blocking mfs that got negative ish to say about the coaches or team I get on this to see good stuff about my team in the am and the first thing I read after a good article is p.o.s. Talking about how trash we are go get a hobby

  42. SlyPirate Says:

    If Joe is going to site the comments of former professionals, I’ll take Polian over Beckles all day every day.

    The interesting thing to remember about JTS (and that draft class) is it was COVID. Most players, including JTS, sat for the season. It was a total guess.

  43. Defense Rules Says:

    Beej … ‘As for JTS, did he have as 20% missed tackle rate in college too?’

    You surprised me with that one Beej, so I looked up JTS’ stats on Pro-Football-Reference for his past 3 years with us.

    o 2021: 6 missed tackles (17.1%) in 560 def snaps.
    o 2022: 2 missed tackles (4.8%) in 843 def snaps.
    o 2023: 3 missed tackles (6.3%) in 579 def snaps.

    OK, we’ll round that off to 20%. More significantly IMO, his combined tackles actually increased every year (29 then 40 then 45), even though his def snaps went down significantly in 2023 (presumably because YaYa started coming on strong?). Leads me to believe that Bowles was using JTS more selectively as a rotational player in certain specific game situations.

    I know that Joe doesn’t appreciate ‘QB pressures’ as much as some of us do, but JTS has regressed in that area. In 2021 he had 27 pressures (and 51 blitzes BTW). In 2022 those reduced to 22 pressures (and blitzes were down to 35). Then in 2023 his pressures decreased even further to only 13 (and his blitzes were way down to only 17). Makes me think that Bowles used JTS even more selectively in 2023 than he did in 2022 or 2021. not hard to see though why Bucs didn’t pick up his 5th year option.

  44. JBuc Says:

    There’s three kinds of lies:

    Lies, Damn lies, and statistics

    Mark Twain

  45. A Bucs Fan Says:

    @Defense Rules – the Bucs have been bad at pressuring the QB during the duration of Bowles tenure. They’ve never ranked higher than 24th in pressure % and dead last 2 out of the last 4 years. Last year was actually the highest pressure rating since 2020. Makes you think what exactly has Todd been cooking with on defense?

  46. Dave Pear Says:

    The only way to justify a losing head coach, whose record is fact, is to list the excuses. They are well listed above.

    Ronde Barber,”You are what your record says you are.”

    Loser with the Jets. Loser with the Bucs. Fact.

    This is Todd’s year to prove all his defenders right.

    He needs at least 10-8 to have a winning record with the Bucs and a lot more than that for his career.

    We will see, meanwhile I expect his defense to continue to not know their assignments at critical times because he moves the players around too much and has too many options buried in the coverage and blitz schemes.

    Prove me wrong Todd. Otherwise will be able to hand select his first Head Coach since Arians as your replacement.

  47. ModHairKen Says:

    Judging Bowles by years ago at the Jets is moronic. Belichick was 36-44 at Cleveland.

    I was convinced Bowles was gone last year. He turned it around and won a playoff game.

  48. 74 Bucs Fan Says:

    Dave Pear – Devin White #45 – benched and launched. Case closed. Try harder.

  49. catcard202 Says:

    From the get-go, JTS has had the 1st guy off the bus physical build & athleticism…But without the DAWG needed to excel in the league.

    That could be because he only played 2yrs of college ball at U-Dub, held out over Covid & then entered the Draft extremely GREEN & somewhat immature…

    Regardless, if he wants to be anything more than a bit player BU OLB / ST guy going forward…He better find the missing link to his game in 2024. Time about up on his Bucs career!!

  50. Baking with Evans Says:

    Drules I love your takes.

    And I love your 30mph pitch… “ Neal was the biggest disappointment of 2023 as a FA signing IMO, but Bowles didn’t sign him … JL did. Oops, my bad; guess that gets you started on that. Fire away”

  51. lambchopp Says:

    @Dave Pear,

    JTS literally went to a pass rush academy the previous offseason.

    It’s not always about coaching, but also about how much is he absorbing and how much is he willing to challenge himself. Not everyone with talent responds to coaching.

  52. Defense Rules Says:

    catcard202 … ‘could be because he (JTS) only played 2yrs of college ball at U-Dub, held out over Covid & then entered the Draft extremely GREEN & somewhat immature’.

    More I think about it catcard, taking a guy who’d missed all of the 2020 season (because of COVID) AND had only played 2 years of college ball in Rnd 1 was incredibly risky. JTS had only 2 sacks at Washington in his freshman year (2018) in 10 games, then showed up a lot more in 2019 with 8 sacks in 13 games before sitting out 2020. THAT’S not much productivity to be burning a 1st Rnd pick on. He definitely started behind the 8-ball in Todd Bowles’ defense.

  53. Mike Johnson Says:

    I see Dave Pear here is off his medication again.

  54. MelvinJunior Says:

    Wonder what category Najee Harris falls into since the Steelers ‘declined’ his 5th-year option… Under this grading system, Polian would have HIM as being a Bust. That’s obviously, not the case. They just weren’t going to hand a “Running Back” a FULLY Guaranteed $7-Million Contract. Honestly, I was kind of surprised it’d be THAT much for the 24th overall pick at Running Back.

  55. Jordan Says:

    We’ll see how he plays this year given he’s on his last year.

    He’s definitely very athletic, but he just doesn’t seem to have that “killer instinct” and desire for fierce contact that it takes to finish and get a sack. He always gets close but gets close by running the horn too wide constantly. He is also a liability in the run game. Teams ran at him pretty often.

    It’s going to be very interesting to see how the rotation ends up with Barrett gone, Watts development, and adding Braswell.

  56. Rod Munch Says:

    Anyone notice that the pick right before JTS, the Ravens Odafe Oweh, has nearly identical stats to JPP, with the exact same sack count, nearly the same tackles and TFL, and both have production spread over three years – and the Ravens picked up his option.

    The morons who think JPP shouldn’t even be in the NFL are retards. Typical low IQ dullards who don’t know what they’re watching.

    JTS is not a star, but he is not awful and will almost certainly play a long time in the NFL. Also he’s improved each year in the NFL, and he was very very green coming out of college. I wouldn’t be shocked if he goes out and has like a 7 sack season this year.

  57. Nano107 Says:

    Pear that defense allowed 19.3 pts a game

  58. unbelievable Says:

    JTS was absolutely a risky pick and many of us said so at the time. He just doesn’t have that much experience.

    Dave Pear- perhaps you should lay off the bottle so you could do proper math. Bowles is exactly .500 in the reg season as Bucs head coach. Not saying that’s something to celebrate, but calling him a loser under .500 coach is simply inaccurate.

  59. Buccup Says:

    The Bucs should try JTS at tight end.

  60. BakerBucs says Says:

    So let me get this rite (pear) Brady got his 1st losing season because of bowles WTF r u retarded? Brady the goat is a cheat Bowles is no cheat Brady sucks didn’t he save belichecks job for 20 years & put bowles job on the line but bowles was smart enough to get baker to save his job take Brady & shove him where the sun don’t shine up u r butt

  61. BakerBucs says Says:

    Dave pear u b a freakin weirdo know it all in u suck buddy

  62. Stanglassman Says:

    I watched Dave Pear play. I loved Dave Pear. You Sir are no Dave Pear.