Bucs’ Playoff Probability Rises To 77 Percent

December 18th, 2023

Todd Bowles

Who wants Bucs playoff tickets for Christmas?

Joe suspects that will be a popular request this week, at least more popular that it was on Saturday.

Per the New York Times‘ playoff probability calculator, Tampa Bay now has a 77 percent chance of qualifying for postseason play as a Wild Card in the NFC. That number dips to 63 percent when it comes to winning the NFC South.

Of course, the Rams’ showdown with the Saints coming Thursday night will change the odds significantly in one direction or another. Both clubs are 7-7, just like the Bucs.

As of today, Tampa Bay owns a division tiebreaker edge on the Saints after beating them in Week 4. The Saints and Bucs clash in Tampa on Dec. 31.

Regardless, a 9-8 record is just about a lock to be good enough for the Bucs to find a spot in the postseason dance as a Wild Card.

As well as these Bucs play on the road, Joe’s not sure what the best ending to this season really is.

17 Responses to “Bucs’ Playoff Probability Rises To 77 Percent”

  1. David Says:

    Real Bucs fans (Not Baker fans) cares about this head coach and his journeyman qb even if they make it into playoffs followed by a blow out first round exit.
    There will be no Toilet Bowl with Baker in Tampa regardless next season. The most fans will have no desire to see another similar tiresome mediocre season with this combo of HC and QB with their long time losing records.

    Bucs will hire an offensive minded coach followed by a drafting a qb to compete with Trask for starting job. Let the re-build begins.

  2. Proudbucsfan Says:

    I really hope Baker plays like that the rest of the way, look what happens when they put Godwin in the slot and push the ball down the field for the first time all season. I’m so happy Canales put the ball in the hands of our playmakers. Looked like no risk it no biscuit sort of.

  3. FortMyersDave Says:

    David, the problem with your thinking is that if the Bucs make it in the playoffs as a wildcard or diviosion champ they will be picking in the 19-21 range (depending on what the other 9-8 clubs like the Rams, Vikes or Saints get run in the wildcard round). This makes getting one of the top 4 or 5 qbs a bit unlikely unless one wants to sell the future like Carolina did for the Bama kid who appears to be a bust. Even if the Bucs finish 7-10 and pick in the 10-14 range, they will have to sell the farm to move into the top 5 to get a chance at one of the premiere qbs who could work out like Stroud or be another Crying Leif, Mariota, Jameis, Jamarcus Russell, etc. If the Bucs went full belly up like the Washington club has done, the drafting of a qb would be much more likely. The Bucs may launch Bowels but a generational qb may not be in the cards, the Bucs simply were not bad enough this year. Mediocrity comes with a price.

  4. Mike C Says:

    I don’t know, maybe you just see how far the train goes before you jump off…. love how people know the outcome of playoff games before they happen, Dallas and Philly are unbeatable? Dallas is erratic and Philly and Detroit have shown they can lose any given Sunday. If the 8-8 giants can defeat the 16-0 Pats anything can happen once the playoffs start.

  5. BA’s Red Pen Says:

    “To compete with Trask,” lol, Trask is not in the Bucs plans. Wake the F up occult it Trask, the dude is sorry and will never start meaningful games in the NFL. Ever.

  6. MadMax Says:

    We got our QB in Baker already you jokes (david)..gtfoh…im thinking Center with our first pick right now…i dont know just yet. If Nix is there then yeah, but he wont be…but let him sit a year or two and let Baker show him how….but right now Bakers our man.

  7. Leighroy Says:

    Even if you’re not a Bowles fan (and I’m not) a sober person has to understand that if he makes the playoffs this year his job is secure. Trask isn’t the savior but he’s not garbage, he’s JAG. Like it or not (and I’m still getting used to this myself) Baker probably just elevated himself to 10-12th best QB in the league right now, with injuries factored in.

  8. Pruritus Ani Says:

    Week 14.. weakest division…the very weakest division… and we’re just at 500.. Not a ringing job endorsement. Not one team in the Buc’s W column has a winning record..How far we have fallen if we see this metric and believe it is somehow good.

  9. Beeej Says:

    We’re playing a throwaway season, as 1/3 of our player salaries are tied up with people who don’t play anymore. (thus 12 rookies, buncha UFA’s) Even reaching 9-8 it’s likely more than the Glazers would have hoped for. That said, I think we could beat the Eagles in their current state, not the Cowboys or Niners tho

  10. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    We’ve already surpassed the 6.5 win prediction with 3 games left…….we haven’t really overachieved but are doing OK…..
    Mayfield is playing inconsistently but hopefully he has ironed that out.

    The Defense has been very disappointing…….except for our red zone defense.

    Pass rush & pass defense are horrible.

  11. Mike C Says:

    Pruritus, fist year of this system for a lot of guys on offense, they are getting hot at the right time.

  12. John K Ocala Says:

    I have a question for Joe (or whoever)? I believe I’m correct in my analysis… The way I’m seeing it: ” if the Bucs win 2 out of the next 3 then the Bucs win the NFC-South. This holds true even if the saints win out…. Am I correct? Thanks
    No, not correct. Saints and Bucs have the same record at this time.–Joe

  13. Weebs10 Says:

    That’s some Ocala, FL math!

  14. unbelievable Says:


    Yea Bucs have to beat the Saints and win at least 1 of their other 2 games. But really the need to win out to give fans any semblance of confidence against a real playoff team.

    Interesting that NYT has their chances at 77%, while BSPN only has their chances at 66%

  15. orlbucfan Says:

    I am a Bucs fan unlike David. I wouldn’t mind another season of Bowles as HC. I think Bucs can finish at 10-7, now that one of White’s nags kicked the mental rocks straight in Canales’ head. Bucs will beat the Aints. NC will give them fits but they’ll beat them. Sounds like Jax is slumping at the right time. I’ll record that one as I will be at a Xmas event that day. Go Bucs!!

  16. BakerBucs Says:

    OMG these post are not fans I r more like creeps with these B’s posts,did u r mothers ever tell u if u don’t have something good to say then keep u r mouth shut,!!!

  17. Donald G Says:

    I think Bowles is a decent coach Not the best but I can see this team getting better. We have been competitive in every game. He needs another year post Brady and his cap hit. Look we had a rough patch mid season So lets stand up Bucs fans support them LFnGoooo