Not Lucky Enough

October 17th, 2023

Measuring luck.

Ever try to assign a value to the unpredictable? Well, leave it to a stat geek who tried to do just that.

Tom Bliss, a data scientist from Columbia who is also a physicist and an astronomer, runs the geek division at the NFL. Apparently, with ample time on his hands, he decided to try to slap GD numbers on what he deems is luck.

Joe has no clue how you accurately measure the unpredictable. Bliss details how he came up with his mumbo jumbo here.

If you believe what Bliss is selling, the Bucs are a lucky team this year at 3-2, but obviously not lucky enough. You can see Bliss’ chart below.

So where are the Bucs lucky? In fumble recoveries, which are true luck. (If someone tells you he knows the angles that footballs bounce, check to see if he also sells windows door-to-door).

The Bucs have also had good luck in opposing defenses dropping would-be interceptions, Bliss claims.

Where are the Bucs unlucky? Opposing teams catch the ball better against the Bucs than the league average.

Bliss’ hocus pocus seems to fit a team that is 3-2.

9 Responses to “Not Lucky Enough”

  1. gregoreo Says:

    that’s clear as mud

  2. Rayjay1122 Says:

    What the luck Chuck?

  3. Locked In Says:

    Actually, I’ve often thought that opposing teams seem to make those miracle catches against the Bucs

  4. Tampa Bay-ker Says:

    Complete waste of 5 minutes

  5. caradoc Says:

    Who cares what a Columbian guy thinks about American football?

  6. #99 the big fella Says:

    Doesn’t matter what anyone says, unless we get a running game and a pass rush we are not going far.

  7. stpetebucfan Says:

    Major LUCK in the game went to the Lions. Baker’s pass deflected at the line falls right into the hands of a Lion defender. Goff’s second half toss..(btw he’s much taller than Mayfield) was tipped into the air only to fall harmlessly to the RayJay turf in perfect pick six territory.

    Two major breaks that cost the Bucs two potential TD’s and gave the Lions a FG.

    This is not to say the Lions did not deserve the win. The Bucs were out coached and out schemed on BOTH sides of the ball including those 3rd and longs where targets were schemed into wide open spots in the Bucs D.

  8. Joe Says:

    Who cares what a Columbian guy thinks about American football?


    No, Columbia the university in the Ivy League, not Columbia the country. Nobody from Columbia the country is going to waste time like this when he can make good coin running spreadsheets for drug lords!

  9. garro Says:

    I retired about 5 years ago. The company I retired from was all about quantifying everyone’s job performance. Putting numbers to it. It makes perfect sense…on paper…Not so much in real life.

    First thing you learn in any college statistics class is that stats can be and are manipulated to mean what you want them to mean.

    For instance if you do a poll about the popularity of super hero movies versus spy movies and conduct it outside of Comic Con your results will likely be…

    Go Bucs!