Law Of Averages With Injuries May Be On Bucs’ Side This Season

July 26th, 2023

Luck and injuries.

To win a Super Bowl, most teams need good luck when it comes to injuries.

Take the Bucs three years ago. The team only had three major injuries: Vita Vea blew out an ankle but he returned for the playoffs. Ali Marpet got his bell rung and missed three games. Alex Cappa was lost in the playoffs. The backups stepped up every time.

The next year all hell broke loose. Jason Pierre-Paul messed up his shoulder and it never got better. And the Bucs’ secondary was so decimated, the Bucs were pulling dudes off the street like washed Richard Sherman and throwing them onto the field almost cold.

Foot-rubbing Rob Gronkowski also missed significant playing time with busted-up ribs.

And later, Chris Godwin (knee) and Tristan Wirfs (ankle) were lost, and still the Bucs came within a cat’s whisker of the Super Bowl.

Last year, the offensive line was absolutely decimated by injuries. Ryan Jensen destroyed his knee in July. Donovan Smith was banged up all season and missed games, and Tristan Wirfs sat out four games.

Noted handicapper Warren Sharp believes the law of averages should help the Bucs avoid the injury bug this fall, as Sharp typed in his Warren Sharp’s 2023 Football Preview.

Following two consecutive years of poor injury luck, the Bucs are due for better health in 2023. Tampa lost the fifth-most games to injury last season, and both sides of the ball had trouble staying healthy. The offense and defense finished in the top 10 of adjusted games lost to injury.

It also may help that the Bucs are a younger team this year. Younger dudes stay healthier.

If Russell Gage can stay away from the tub (thus far, no such luck — again), that would be a big help.

14 Responses to “Law Of Averages With Injuries May Be On Bucs’ Side This Season”

  1. Da Bucs Guy Says:

    Going from Brady to Mayfield is going younger, but does not help the Bucs avoid the injury bug.

  2. Jack Burton Mercer Says:

    Agreed. Youth is our biggest ally against injuries.

  3. FortMyersDave Says:

    It seems like the Bucs always have a lot of guys tweaking their hamstrings and accumulating other nagging injuries. Could this be due to less than stellar work from the strength and conditioning staff? It would be curious to see if other teams who play in a hot climate: Jags, Fins, Panthers, etc. have had the same issues or have they avoided the injury bug. Then again I guess one can’t blame the heat or the trainers for Logan Hall blowing up Jensen’s knee last year though …. Chalk that one up to bad luck….

  4. HC Grover Says:

    Good one. There is no law of average of NFL injury I know of.

  5. Beej Says:

    Read that whatever injury Gage suffered last spring is STILL affecting him

  6. garro Says:

    We simply can not count on Gage being healthy this year. Hope he is but…

    Injuries are why you get quality backups. And guys who are interested in earning a starting job. Brady himself got the gig in New England because Bledsoe got hurt … He wanted a starting job.

    Go Bucs!

  7. J Ghotier Says:

    You would think that would apply to Rays pitching injuries, but it doesn’t seem to be on our side in Tampa at the moment 🤷‍♂️ here’s to praying tho!

  8. All_da_way Says:

    Bucs lack of depth was exposed last year. It tells me that Licht became complacent the last two off seasons and drafts. This off season Licht actually became more aggressive addressing depth despite a salary cap crunch.

    So a team whether it has cap space or not can make changes to improve depth. The Bucs brass clearly overrated a lot of their depth pieces in 2021 and 2022 which showed they could not compete.

    It will come down to how the Bucs coaches develop the 2021, 2022 and 2023 draft classes.

  9. WillieG Says:

    Maybe trainers who can help players avoid hamstring injuries would help?

  10. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    The youth definitely makes a difference….

  11. AlabamaBucsFan Says:

    I think the Bucs got a lot younger this year. Not only do you get more injury prone, but it just take a lot longer to heal as you get older.

  12. Defense Rules Says:

    HC Grover … ‘There is no law of average of NFL injury I know of.’

    Exactly. Freak accidents certainly occur (Jensen?) but Gronk’s rib injury wasn’t the result of some ‘law of averages’; he got the snot knocked out of him that game. Hamstring injuries happen to all players, but some seem to be more prone to them than others probably for a variety of factors.

    Russell Gage is a good example. He only missed 4 games in 4 seasons with Atlanta. Most of the Falcons’ games are played indoors on artificial turf in a temperature-controlled climate. so MAYBE that made a difference. Or MAYBE the way he was being used last season was different than how he was used up in Atlanta, and that impacted his injury situations (both from the hits and from the type routes & cuts he was asked to do). Russell’s reasonably tall (6′), but at 184 lbs he probably felt like he was inside a pinball machine when he got hit by ILBs & OLBs on many of those slot WR catches.

  13. Infomeplease Says:

    I hope WS is correct about the law of averages to injuries. I hope the law of averages can be applied to bad officiating calls too. The Bucs are over due for less of those. The last two seasons were ridiculously bad.

  14. ScottyMack Says:

    If Sharp is right, I’d favor the Bucs to win the division. Otherwise, hello lottery pick.