Computer Models Give Bucs Virtually No Shot To Win Super Bowl (But Here Is How They Could Win It All)

May 27th, 2023

Bucs coach Todd Bowles.

Joe likes to say if you’re not trying to win the Super Bowl, or you can’t win a Super Bowl with [insert player’s name], then what’s the point?

It seems that’s what a study done by The Athletic is suggesting with the Bucs this fall.

Austin Mock and Nando Di Fino describe a computer model established by the New York Times-owned publication that ran one million simulations of the NFL season for 2023.

The Bucs won the Super Bowl so few times, Mock and Di Fino said it may as well be zero percent.

… Meet the truly un-elite. The Cardinals (200-1), Texans (125-1), Buccaneers (100-1), Colts (100-1) and Titans (80-1) aren’t just unlikely to win the Super Bowl this year, but three of them won the title so infrequently in a million models that the chances were rounded down to 0.0 percent.

However, by running these simulations, the Bucs did win the Super Bowl a few times. Very few. Here is one example how the Bucs could pull off one of the greatest upsets in league history.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-8, NFC South champs, No. 4 seed in NFC (Sim No. 562)

5-2 in games decided by one score

W @ MIN, 13-7
W vs. CHI, 24-15
L vs. PHI, 43-17
W @ NO, 23-7
L vs. DET, 31-10
W vs. ATL, 30-10
L @ BUF, 38-14
L @ HOU, 17-16
W vs. TEN, 17-9
W @ SF, 21-20
L @ IND, 16-8
W vs. CAR, 20-6
W @ ATL, 24-21
L @ GB, 24-14
L vs. JAX, 41-13
L vs. NO, 14-3
W @ CAR, 21-14


W vs. DAL, 24-20
W @ PHI, 21-17
W @ DET, 27-20
W vs. BUF, 24-21

This is Baker Mayfield, Super Bowl winner.

… Mayfield, fresh off a magical run with the 2022 Rams, doesn’t exactly lead the team to regular season greatness, but they do enough to win the South and get in. And then… they beat Dallas by 4, Philly by 4, the Lions by 7, and the mighty Bucs defeat the Buffalo Bills in the Super Bowl to win the title. Maybe it’s a last-second Cade Otton TD. Maybe it’s fueled by Rachaad White’s 224 total yards. Perhaps Mike Evans and Chris Godwin finally click and become the machine they’ve been destined to be under new OC Dave Canales. The details will remain shrouded in mystery, but we do know that in 0.4% of sims run, the Bucs and Baker Mayfield emerge victorious.

The Bucs playing the Lions in the NFC Championship is just wild to think about. The gambling Lions? In the NFC title game?

If the Bucs did win the Super Bowl, Mayfield would become a very rich man, Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht could retire as the Bucs shot-caller and, just a hunch, Bucs coach Todd Bowles would get a handsome contract extension.

But as computer models for The Athletic suggest, artificial intelligence has the Bucs with a 0.4 percent shot.

32 Responses to “Computer Models Give Bucs Virtually No Shot To Win Super Bowl (But Here Is How They Could Win It All)”

  1. Derek Says:

    Now that would be a dream season

  2. DR. POPS Says:

    wet dream.

  3. Trask To The Future Says:

    The computer projections are WRONG…

    Because Mayfield won’t be our QB.

  4. sasquatch Says:

    blah blah blah… it’s rating, ranking, prediction, and projection season. The worst.

  5. SOEbuc Says:

    Who cares? Not Baker. Not me. “It’s May” and sure as hell baseball season.

  6. HC Grover Says:

    Finally a Bucs will win Super Bowl plan. Many to come before reality strikes on opening day. Fantasy Football is fun.

  7. Ryan Smith Says:

    My face and genetics gave me 0% chance to get married to a hot wife . But somehow, someway it happened! So there’s always a chance!

  8. Lt. Dan Says:

    Brilliant Ryan Smith! Love it – good for you bro!

  9. Duane Says:

    What’s the point of playing the games if the computers played it all out already?

    These kinds of posts are simply worthless yak.

  10. lobsterman Says:

    “This is Baker Mayfield, Super Bowl winner.”

    The guy is 1-1 in the playoffs in 8 seasons of play. Give me a break.

  11. realistic-optimistic Says:

    The guy is 1-1 in the playoffs in 8 seasons of play. Give me a break.

    Name one other Browns QB with a playoff win during the last 30 years…

    I’m not drooling over him, but you can’t throw up his playoff record as evidence of his futility. That’s weak.

  12. Zoocomics Says:

    LMAO… man is this the offseason? This is worse than mock drafts. Joe, you’re now writing an article about computer model projections!! Thanks for keeping us clicking dude… you got me to do one more click this morning while I’m having a cup of coffee. Bless you, have a great Memorial Day Weekend.

  13. JD Still Says:

    I read once where a computer generated study found that it was physically impossible for a bumblebee to fly, They just forgot to tell the bumblebee! It is amazing what one can accomplish when one doesn’t know what one can’t do!

  14. lobsterman Says:

    realistic-optimistic Says: “You can’t throw up his playoff record as evidence of his futility. That’s weak.”

    It’s not weak. It is what it is. A 1-1 playoff record in 8 seasons of play. Which means he MADE the payoffs 1 TIME in 8 SEASONS. That sux for a first rounder. Plus, his career 102 TD/64 INT record is NFL backup material.

  15. realistic-optimistic Says:

    I won’t argue that his numbers are middling, but you act like the Bucs gave him 40 million. He’s operating on a backup-tier contract. We got a former no. 1 pick with plenty of starting experience and a playoff win under his belt, and he’s not even 30 years old. If he succeeds, I’m happy. If he fails, no big loss. Why the complaining?

  16. Jeebs the Honey Bear Says:

    In this model our offense gets worse than last year, only 17 ppg in the regular season. But then it explodes to 24 ppg in the playoffs. I’m sticking with my prediction that the offense improves under Canales (around 23-24 ppg) and gets us to a 10 win season and we repeat as NFC South champs. And in the NFC playoffs, anything can happen!

  17. Buddha Says:

    Last seven games look winnable–on paper.

  18. Alanbucsfan Says:

    $100 on Bucs winning super bowl pays $8,000

  19. SCBucsFan Says:

    I am pretty sure Baker hasn’t played 8 seasons. He is only 28 years old and was drafted in 2018. I believe that means he has played 5 seasons and has as many playoff wins as Lamar Jackson. I’m not saying he’s as good as Lamar obviously, but they both have one playoff victory. He’s had 2 good years, 2 not so good years, and last year he was moved all over the place. I think it’s allot like his past, about 50/50 that he turns in a solid performance this year. I am optimistic and I think having an entire off season to learn the offense will help tremendously. If we can have a middle of the pack rushing attack and the defense can be a to ten defense, I don’t see why we can’t repeat as division champs.

  20. ShakeandBaker Says:

    When a guy is claiming that Baker has been in the NFL for 8 years he loses all credibility

  21. B Says:

    Who the ….”Nando DiFino”? Are we checking in with Star Wars characters now for article ideas?! C’mon, Joes. I know its the offseason, I know this is free, but….

  22. Oneilbuc Says:

    So Baker Mayfield is the starting quarterback for the bucs this year? It seems like he’s already been given the job because he’s being promoted on every bucs page including this one. And what’s also been shown that the bucs destroyed another quarterback they drafted who was good in college!! It doesn’t matter if they draft Caleb Williams or Drake May I have no confidence in this ever developing a quarterback. The bucs had 2 years to develop Trask while sitting behind Brady with no pressure on the young quarterback having to be good real quick and the bucs still couldn’t develop him . What makes you guys think they will develop a quarterback coming out next year especially when now days they don’t have the time for coaches to work with them in training camp like they used to because of the union contract. I’m done with the bucs in there quarterback development just get to the playoffs and try to make a run to the super bowl forget tanking for a quarterback that in 2 years most of yall will turn on him and say how sorry he is. Go Bucs!!!

  23. Oneilbuc Says:

    No confidence in the team ever developing a quarterback. Type to fast on that one.

  24. Allbuccedup Says:

    A picture is worth a thousand words.

  25. Mike C Says:

    Last years offense was horrible….. except when it was taken out of spongebobs hands. With a trigger happy, 45 year old, immobile QB the offense was able to move the ball and score. So that tells me the talent level of the players was fine. Brady was unfocused and did not want to get hit last season, no one can argue that. So I say even a slight upgrade in offensive philosophy and scheme and a more focused, mobile QB can only produce better results. As football is a team game this will synergies with the defense.

  26. Mike C Says:

    If it wasn’t clear, I was referring to the two minute offense.

  27. DmanTX Says:

    So what you are saying is we have a chance? That is good enough for me. Let’s Go!!

  28. Joe Says:

    Who the ….”Nando DiFino”? Are we checking in with Star Wars characters now for article ideas?! C’mon, Joes. I know its the offseason, I know this is free, but….

    Joe doesn’t think The Athletic is going to use fake names of Star Wars characters for their analysts. Pretty sure “DiFano” is Italian.

  29. Colonel Angus Says:

    This is precisely how I see it playing out.

  30. FrontFour Says:

    Love it! Let’s get ready for the parade.

  31. mark2001 Says:

    Interesting. So to have this chance, we have to win three of the first four games. Sorry to say, I think that is very unlikely. 2-2 would be as best as I could see from those first four matchups. But I do like the fact the first four games will probably give us a good idea what we have. 3-1… celebrate, 2-2… what I expect, 1-3 Shakey man, dogfight to stay out of the cellar, and 0-4…disaster.

  32. garro Says:

    Stat Geek BS.
    Wonder what my odds are for being MVP this year…. Yeah irrelevant like I thought.