Bucs Are No. 13 In Strength Of Schedule

April 19th, 2023

Bucs coach Todd Bowles.

Warren Sharp ain’t like most people.

A lot of folks look at a team’s schedule, count up the records of the opponents from the previous season, and then determine the strength of schedule.

Sharp, a handicapper turned stathead, believes that is backwards. Sharp maintains that rarely is a team the same in consecutive seasons because teams often lose or gain key players. So Sharp determines strength of schedule based on rosters, not records, as well as what our friends in the desert believe to be the preseason season-win totals for a team’s opponents.

(For those wondering, many sportsbooks have the Bucs winning 6.5 games this season.)

Sharp says the Bucs’ strength of schedule is middle of the pack, No. 13, meaning theirs is 13th-easiest in the NFL.

Last year, Sharp had the Bucs with the seventh-easiest schedule.

19 Responses to “Bucs Are No. 13 In Strength Of Schedule”

  1. Defense Rules Says:

    If you look at the W-L records of last year’s teams (regular season), our opponents in 7 of our games ended the season with better records than we did, and 9 ended the season with worse records (1 opponent ended the season with the same 8-9 regular season record). Thus if all Sharp was looking at was season records, Bucs should’ve been 9-7-1 and we ended up being 8-9. Fairly close actually

    But that tells me that last season’s strength of schedule wasn’t really 7th easiest as Sharp predicted, but rather very close to middle-of-the-pack (we performed pretty much as we should’ve performed using last season’s W-L records for all opponents). However, Bucs won 2 games we shouldn’t have won using that criteria (Cowboys, Seahawks), lost 3 games we shouldn’t have lost (Panthers, Browns, Falcons), plus lost 1 game we should’ve tied (Packers) if strictly looking at end-of-season records.

    Hmmm, maybe predictions based on last year’s strength of schedule aren’t really all that valuable because teams change; some for the better, some worse. Whodathunkit?

  2. garro Says:

    Blah Blah Blah
    Strength of schedule is a myth. By week three it’s usually all but meaningless.

  3. BucU Says:

    Bowles will be ecstatic going 8-9 this upcoming season. He brings a culture of mediocrity.

  4. Lt. Dan Says:

    In Baker I trust…kinda. I’ll be betting the over.

  5. Letsbucinggo Says:

    Harder schedule with tweedle dee and tweedle dum at quarterback 6.5 is to kind.

  6. Chris@Apple Roof Cleaning Tampa Says:

    What is often forgotten is the fact the NFC South has got better.

  7. Steven007 Says:

    SOS is among the most meaningless distractions in the NFL. It never, ever works out the way it’s supposedly should based on the preseason rankings. For a variety of reasons. It’s probably the one metric I pay attention to the least. One significant injury on one team throws it off. And there are always those instances every year. And that’s just one variable that can muddy the waters. Waste of time debating about it.

  8. Dooley Says:

    Meh, these projections don’t account for the unknown and there isn’t enough data collected to have these be definitive SOS rankings, which is usually easier to gauge after the season is done and over with.

  9. Craig Says:

    If this were a normal team, I would be really happy, but the Bucs tend to play down to their scheduled opponents.

  10. Goatfarmer Says:

    Without Brady late game heroics four times, Bowels comes in at 4-13. Couldn’t beat anyone good outside of Dallas in week 1 when they weren’t, and the Seahawks in Germany because the Bucs were somehow energized and Pistol Pete didn’t expect the Bucs to run the ball . (!)

    Right now Bowels is excited about Canales, which is a huge shade dump on Mr. He Be Don’t. That will last for a few games until it’s clear the offense can’t score enough points to win, no matter what, because the defense is giving up 25+ ppg. Then it’s injuries, the salary cap, Diva, JTS and Logan Hall, the quarterback, the offensive line, all of the above, blah blah blah.

    Much more fun to talk about the draft in a week.

  11. Dooley Says:

    “Without Brady late game heroics four times, Bowels comes in at 4-13. Couldn’t beat anyone good outside of Dallas in week 1 when they weren’t, and the Seahawks in Germany because the Bucs were somehow energized and Pistol Pete didn’t expect the Bucs to run the ball . (!)”

    Vs. Rams(2022 avg 18.1ppg):
    Bucs win 16-13 after the defense forced a punt on LAs final possession and the offense scores on it’s final possession

    Vs. New Orleans(2022 avg 19.4 ppg) pt.2:
    Bucs win 17-16 after defense forces NO to punt on it’s 2nd to last possession

    Vs. Arizona(avg 20 ppg):
    Bucs win 19-16 game gets forced to OT after a Keanu Neal INT to end regulation.

    Vs. Carolina(avg 20.4ppg):
    Bucs Win 30-24 our final score, the “game winner” came off possession after a sack fumble generated by Anthony Nelson, also 30 points in week 17 was our 2nd highest point total and second time scoring >30 points in a game since week 5 of the same season lol

    Our defense averaged 17.5 points allowed in these games
    Our offense averaged 20.5 games scored in those games

    Defensive ranking of the 4 defenses our offense had to “come back” against:

    Rams-22nd of 32
    New Orleans-9th of 32
    Cardinals-31st of 32
    Panthers-19th of 32

    I’m sure you’ll find another thread to post those same, tired, & incorrect speaking points in lol

  12. Defense Rules Says:

    Impressive Dooley, but trying to convince someone whose mind was made up ages ago that he’s wrong is the classic definition of ‘waste of your time’.

  13. Dooley Says:


    It’s for everybody but Goatfarmer, because you se people in comments repeating the same alternative facts he’s constantly offering up. I can give a rat’s hindquarters about changing GF’s mind he’s too far gone and I think he likes complaining more than he likes the actual game of football.

  14. Defense Rules Says:

    Ya, I’m sure you’re right.

  15. Goatfarmer Says:

    Oh cute! An alliance between The Great Fogger and the Drooler. Make sure you guys drink a lot of electrolytes, you don’t want to cramp up while you’re pleasuring each other. Put a mirror up and look in it. After you’re done laughing you’ll see that you pull data selectively to make whatever point it is you’re making. It’s hard to tell between all the fog and haze and hedge. Cut and paste of data is impressive to some I guess. I look at results. I remember stuff and even watch the games. Brady saved Bloweszo arse in half the team’s wins (that’s a whole 4 wins, although you may need to go cut and paste some other data to prove something else). That is a fact.

    You boyz don’t like facts, I get it.

  16. ScottyMack Says:

    They get to play all of the NFC North teams, all of the AFC South teams and, of course, their own division twice. I would argue that those three divisions might be the worst divisions in football (although I could see an argument being made for the NFC West being pretty lousy, too). Yes, they have to play the Eagle, Bills and 49ers, too, but I really don’t know how the Bucs could possibly have an easier schedule this year than they do, considering they won their division last year.

  17. A Says:

    Let’s see

    Below avg Coach
    Below avg QBs
    Below avg Offensive Line (2 real starters with one aging / coming off a knee issue..no more Brady to get rid of the ball in 1.7sec)

    Below avg pass rush (best pass rusher is aging / coming off an Achilles issue)
    Below avg special teams

    I don’t know how we expect to win more than 6.5 games.

    Go Bucs! (let’s shock the world!)

  18. Dooley Says:

    “You boyz don’t like facts, I get it.”

    Too bad the “facts” you cite all boil down to the same biased opinion and are easy to debunk w/o copying and pasting anything. You make it easy to prove you wrong, because the rest of us are looking at the same things you are, but actually know something about the game of football. Good luck with the long-form Fozzy Bear schtick you’ve got going lol I chuckle the most when you try hard.

  19. Goatfarmer Says:

    Drool. Bucs Rams win – furious 4th quarter comeback. Saints game#2. Furious 4th quarter comeback. Cardinals – furious 4th quarter comeback and overtime. Panthers – team was getting wrecked until Brady put the cape on in the 4th quarter for another two-score comeback.

    These things happened. That is what is called a “fact.” No Brady, those four wins don’t happen. So, some simple arithmetic: 8-4=4. Sorry if that math is too complex.

    But you might be watching pickle ball or some other sport, so you can have some slack.