Can’t Blame The Drops
December 30th, 2022
Tom Brady and drops.
At first glance, this isn’t good. But at second and third glances, it’s not a reason for the losing.
Yes, despite the Bucs playing a win-and-you’re-in game Sunday against the Stinking Panthers, the Bucs have a losing record (7-8). And in their only two wins since return from Munich, the Bucs had to rely on Tom Brady’s magic in the final seconds to beat two trash teams.
Not good.
So a Twitter account that likes to put up stats, with the odd handle of @NFL_stats, listed the top quarterbacks in the NFL victimized by drops.
Drops is not an official NFL stat. A lot of stat sites try to track drops. but one man’s drop is another man’s uncatchable ball. So these drops stats can be wildly all over the map.
It seems on face value that Brady has been killed by drops this season. The Bucs may have dropped 30 of Brady’s passes, and that’s a lot and may explain why the offense is dog manure. But as Lee Corso of BSPN would say, “Not so fast my friend.”
Yes, Brady ranks No. 6 in having the most drops, but’s he’s also throwing the most passes. Let’s check out the top-five:
Trevor Lawrence
Josh Allen
Justin Herbert
Aaron Rodgers
Pat Mahomes
Those guys have more drops yet their teams are doing pretty well, most even better than the Bucs.
So while drops surely haven’t helped Brady, quarterbacks with more drops are largely seeing their teams having better success than the Bucs.
(Joe typed “largely.” Yes, Joe knows the Jags and the Packers have the same record as the Bucs.)
QBs with the most passes dropped this season
Trevor Lawrence – 36
Josh Allen – 34
Justin Herbert – 34
Aaron Rodgers – 33
Patrick Mahomes – 31
Tom Brady – 30
Jared Goff – 28
Daniel Jones – 28
Russell Wilson – 27
Lamar Jackson – 26
Tua Tagovailoa – 26— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) December 29, 2022
December 30th, 2022 at 5:01 am
Brady has been the best and not so best this year. The team as a whole has been the same. As with any good run organization it all goes back to the top. Good management(coaching) usually means good results. It is up to the coaches to get the best out of their players or to get better players. Either do your job find someone who will do the job. Todd Bowles looks like a deer in the head lights at times. Great assistant coach. Not so great head coach!!
December 30th, 2022 at 5:02 am
As much as I don’t put much meaning in the stat of so called drops, your logic of explaining them away by listing other QBs whose teams are still winning. Those QBs are operating under the open playbooks without being scared. They will keep at it.
BUCS CANNOT AFFORD TO HAVE SO MANY DROPPED PASSES because they are no good this season.
Go Bucs.
December 30th, 2022 at 5:48 am
God I can’t wait until brady leaves so this entitled fan base and franchise go back to the sh!tter.
December 30th, 2022 at 5:52 am
God i can’t wait until brady leaves so this franchise and it’s entitled fanbase go back to irrelevance.
December 30th, 2022 at 5:55 am
The way that some here point to the drops as reason for Brady’s struggles made it seem like he was in an island way out where, alone. Nope, drops aren’t the issue.
December 30th, 2022 at 6:07 am
Gronks hands were needed this year.
December 30th, 2022 at 6:38 am
It’s the offensive scheme. Unless they change the routes on down and distance expect the same. Defense knows what and where it’s coming. Easy pickins
December 30th, 2022 at 6:55 am
He throws underneath more. He also throws more so that’s not too bad. Far more drops the last two seasons. At this point does it matter? Stop the run and make Darnold beat you with his arm. Bowles won’t but do what you did against Cincy first half. Seems simple but imo we see same o same o.
December 30th, 2022 at 7:05 am
Win One game at home. Rest everybody next week. Get Jensen back and win playoff game at home against a team you already defeated. Go on the road and win another game. Play NFC Championship game. Just win baby.
December 30th, 2022 at 7:17 am
Evans’ drop at Carolina cost them the game. The Offense looked great on the first drive. Would have sent confidence sky high. Especially after Pitts game. That drop took the bandage off the wound and let it get infected.
Never been the same since.
December 30th, 2022 at 7:34 am
It depends on the drop…..it’s one thing to drop a short screen pass….another thing to drop a TD…..(Mike Evans’s drop vs Panthers) critical to the game.
December 30th, 2022 at 7:49 am
Evan’s is not the only player in the NFL that dropped a lay-up pass.
December 30th, 2022 at 7:55 am
A couple TD drops and several 3rd down conversion drops coupled with drive killing penalties. Throw in wasting 1st down on many drives and the chances of success get smaller and smaller. Brady has missed some throws like every other QB . Your looking at a perfect storm for failure. Add a dash of horrific play calling and some piss poor time management and situational decisions and Wham your 7-8 and lucky to be so. Of course there’s the O line issues which is a whole story in itself. Hard to be successful with all this shlt going on.
December 30th, 2022 at 7:56 am
To all my fellow Brady fans…DARIN, you nailed it. But Tommy Boy, you are partially to blame. You should NEVER hit a receiver between the numbers or directly in his hands. Godwin and Evens and especially Gronk could climb a ladder to catch a pass or off the grass. But Tom stop hitting them like that!!!!!!
December 30th, 2022 at 8:01 am
Brothers, go back and watch Superbowl 51and look at the concentration on Edleman’s face when he pulled that pass off the grass. BUTT then again he dropped one directly between the numbers!! I hear you Vince Lombardi. “WINNING ISN’T THE MOST IMPORTANT THING, IT’S THE ONLY THING” Now get you head out of your arse and catch the freak’n ball
December 30th, 2022 at 8:17 am
Sure Brady has bad missed throws like all QB’s, what we really don’t see much from Bucs wr’s is the crazy heroic catch, a few from Jones this year and Godwin but nothing like you see around the league. Gage dropped a big 2nd & short pass against Cincy for a 1st down which led to a int the very next play another snake bite.
December 30th, 2022 at 8:24 am
Drop stats doesn’t state what down they occur on though. 1st down? Ok. 3rd down? Drive KILLER
December 30th, 2022 at 9:32 am
Lol. You don’t believe that 30 drops is a lot? Now you’re just reaching to blame everything on Brady. With the receivers on our roster, the fact that you think 30 drops are acceptable is amazing.
December 30th, 2022 at 9:36 am
No excuses…………drops will happen
December 30th, 2022 at 11:17 am
Sure drops are an issue, but Brady has had some really bad throws also. Wonder what the stat is on passes that were off target that the WR had no chance of catching?
December 30th, 2022 at 11:35 am
Go back and watch the videos from some of the earlier games and it will tell you the season could’ve been changed drastically with a couple plays here and there. Between the 3rd and 4h down run stop on offense vs Pitts, Carolina GB. The awful fumbles vs Green Bay, the penalty on the two point conversion. The complete breakdown in the second half vs Cleveland defensively, and Todd Bowles mismanaging the game , the drop vs Carolina in the overall lack of adjustments after half time. This is very close to being a double digit win team. But the overall scope is that they’re poorly coached and they haven’t learned from their mistakes. Drops have been an issue, but it starts at the starts at the top. Learning from your mistakes
December 30th, 2022 at 3:30 pm
As you point out Joe, the number of passes thrown is a factor in this metric. Percentage of passes dropped would seem more appropriate. Still the metric is flawed as it doesn’t account for how catchable the ball was, speed and placement of the ball relative to the receiver’s hands and direction of movement, defender’s proximity and play as the ball arrives, etc. All can affect a receiver’s ability to catch the ball but none are considered in the “dropped passes” metric.
December 30th, 2022 at 7:51 pm
Well for starters Joe the list is garbage…..because the qbs listed all have legit running games…trust me drops play a factor when you dink n dunk it’s damn near obvious.
December 30th, 2022 at 9:23 pm
If he completion rate is .09 less than Mahomes and 3% behind Geno Smith who leads the league, that tells me Brady’s pretty accurate if they have fewer drops. And he throws more passes.