Football Outsiders: Coin Flip Bucs Make The Playoffs

November 3rd, 2022

Bucs coach Todd Bowles.

Yes, the Bucs are alive for a playoff spot.

But to do that, the Bucs must win the awful NFC South. That’s the conclusion of a think tank Joe trusts, Football Outsiders.

No NFC team other than the Rams saw its playoff hopes tumble like the Bucs’ as a result of last weekend’s games. The Bucs’ chances of the playoffs fell 15 percent after losing to the Crows and seeing the Dixie Chicks win.

Currently, Football Outsiders sees the Bucs making the playoffs at a 52 percent chance. So the Bucs are still the favorite to win the division, despite a 3-5 record and being a game behind Atlanta.

Football Outsiders believes the Bucs have a 46 percent chance of winning the NFC South (Atlanta is at 34 percent) and a dismal 6.3 percent shot of making the playoffs as a wild card.

So Football Outsiders hasn’t (yet) given up on the Bucs. Joe’s question is, after feeling the pall of the Bucs’ locker room yesterday, have the Bucs given up on themselves?

33 Responses to “Football Outsiders: Coin Flip Bucs Make The Playoffs”

  1. Anonymous Says:

    Anyone who said the EASY part of the Bucs schedule is coming up is living in la la land!! What schedule were they looking at?? The Bucs may make the playoffs but that does not make them a good team. Brady is not the same Brady who won the super bowl. Without him hitting on all cylinders there is no chance they make the super bowl. None!!!

  2. MadMax Says:

    If we do, its one and done….I can tell you that right now. They not gonna play hard for this coach and BL. Its obvious already……

    Just tank….we’re done winning. That should get us a top 5 pick and a chance at Will Anderson! Then Bo Nix!

  3. MadMax Says:

    Genius design Mr Licht and Bowles….i see it now, i get it….this is all by design….alrighty then.

  4. Destinjohnny Says:

    Bad drafting and roster planning is catching up to us

  5. Jvato24 Says:

    Imagine this, the Bucs continue to suck out loud, win 7 games, and comes down to Atlanta game at end of year, Bucs win!!! They are in… And then go from draft pick #7 to pick #21 in the blink of an eye lol

    Get blasted in playoffs 1st game

  6. catcard202 Says:

    If the Bucs cannot scratch their way back to .500 by the Bye Week…They are at much longer odds of winning the South & making the playoffs.

    I believe it will take 10-7 outright or 9-8 w/ tie-breaker to claim the South.

    The way I see it… The Bucs have to win these next 2, to even have a shot at making a second half run at the division title.

    But if the come back from Germany 3-7 or 4-6….There will be so little room for error that I cannot imagine this roster overcoming the odds to run the table down the stretch to claim the South & gain an opportunity at chasing another SB.

  7. FortMyersDave Says:

    To channel Coach Mora; “Playoffs!, seriously!!!” I quit believing after the Ravens game. The offense moved the ball under what was probably Arians/Brady scripted plays and then became anemic after Byron started calling the plays and Bowles D is a sieve against even a practice squad rushing attack. I can not believe the Bucs are favored by 3, if the wiseguys in Vegas saw how Bowles and Byron call a game, the Bucs would be home dogs every week. This is a trap game for national betters who think the Rams will fade in an East Coast game. Smart play: Rams on the moneyline.

  8. August 1976 Buc Says:

    In the imortal words of Jim Mora “Playoffs, Playoffs” lololololololol
    Now thats a funny, just like the current product presented every week by this team lately.
    Playoffs lololololol
    How about winning a game?.
    Maybe we just start there?

  9. Defense Rules Says:

    Much more concerned about seeing the Bucs start playing competitive football than I am about them winning the NFC South. Being the best of the worst isn’t much to brag about.

  10. Buc1987 Says:



  11. Destinjohnny Says:

    It’s hard to win without the talent boys
    Imagine Trask as the qb next year….

  12. MadMax Says:

    @Jvato24 yep thats Buc Luck….and I see it happening because there will be enough joojoo out there to screw us like that. Thats the way it goes, lol. Its a Bucs life 🙂

  13. adam from ny Says:

    did you know that the shape of a person’s head, the cranium, the noggin…can tell a boatload about their intelligence…

    an ill shaped head is often that of not the brightest of bulbs, or highest iq…

    this is something to strongly consider…the shape of a man’s head

  14. Letsbucinggo Says:

    MadMax didn’t the Dolphins lose their first round pick for tanking.

  15. Chris@Apple Roof Cleaning Tampa Says:

    I think we beat the Rams here in Tampa on Sunday, but the Seahawks in Germany will present real problems.
    Because we are in a weak division, I think we will reach the playoffs by winning the weak NFC South.
    However, I do not see us going very far in the playoffs. Do You ?
    I think The Eagles will win the NFC and Buffalo will take the AFC, setting up a Super Bowl with the 2 best teams in Football.
    Of course, Brady will not be back here in Tampa next year, and we will start our rebuilding cycle.
    The big question on everyone’s mind is, will our coaches and Licht be back next year, or will we start completely over ?

    If people remember, Licht was in trouble, until he talked Arians and his bunch to come to Tampa.
    Then, he got another gift when Brady was snubbed by San Francisco.
    But Arians is gone, and so will be Brady, so do we fire Licht, or have him head up the rebuild ?

    Personally, I am all for starting completely over. New Coaches and new General Manager.

  16. EricTheViking Says:

    Joe must be a THC adict to think this squad can make the playoffs. This season has already gone “up in smoke”.

  17. MadMax Says:

    @letsbuc, inform me, never heard about that one. But if so, thats why you have to disguise it….is that what youre getting at?

  18. Redeemer Says:

    I think we all agree the only shot is winning the south. If they do, chances are they’ll host a team with a better record. Just saw ESPNs stupid win predictor. Says the bucs have a 70% chance to beat the Rams. Vegas says bucs by 3.absolute must win

  19. D-Rok Says:

    And after that first 21 for -3 yards, Redeemer, our odds of winning will go down to 37.5%.

    Oh please, oh please, oh pretty please – please have a coherent, intelligent game-plan and oh please Bucs, please play competitive.

    Winning? I’ll believe it when I see it.

    In my best monotone voice: go. bucs.

  20. D-Rok Says:

    *sorry, first 21-dive.

  21. Winny Testaverde Says:

    Carolina and Lil’ Pinero completely snapped defeat from the jaws of history last week vs The Falcones. I’d settle for a play in game vs The Falcones in Week 18 at this point. It’s hard to picture the Bucs winning A game at this point.

  22. BucU Says:

    And if we lose again Sunday we’ll hear this from Bolwes…”We have to get back to fundamentals. We have to do better as coaches and players. We understand that. “. Etc, etc.

  23. Letsbucinggo Says:

    MadMax the former coach of Miami Brian Flores told the NFL that the owner of Miami was paying him 100000 dollars to lose so the NFL fined the owner suspended him for a few games and they had to forfeit number 1 pick in 2023 and a pick in 2024. So if they are doing this they better be careful.

  24. Beej Says:

    “D-Rok Says:
    November 3rd, 2022 at 1:49 pm
    And after that first 21 for -3 yards, Redeemer, our odds of winning will go down to 37.5%.”

    I think they arrive at those percentages because it’s indicative of lack of aggression, and conservative teams rarely win anything

  25. D-Rok Says:

    Well, Beej, I pulled that 37.5% out of thin air in an attempt at sarcasm. But really, if we run up the gut first play, we all know how predictable and bland the play-calling will be, and half of 70% is roughly 37.5%. OK, I should have said 35%, LOL.

    I just want us to be competitive, win or lose.

  26. MadMax Says:

    Ok thanks, I didnt know. I only have so much time to follow stuff and its always my Bucs and future draft prospects. I guess they need to word things and be careful. I dont know, im not an owner or GM lol. At this point, we dont even have to tank, WE SUCK out loud hahahahaha….so unless theres some investigating into some conspiracy, and its the GOATS last year btw, good luck trying to find somebody to buy it.

  27. MadMax Says:

    Here’s what I think….Brady’s marriage was already falling apart, she can blame it on him unretiring or blah blah blah, but that stuff takes a year or more to build up. And thats why he unretired so quick, and I dont blame him. (Get back to who you are and what you love secondly, and you do best). Im sure she was a handful, they always are…cant satisfy them no matter what.

    Then comes the other stuff…BA resigning, horrible injuries, horrible Coaching, Bowles fighting for room up his you know what with BL trying to get all up in there too….its a mess.

    But Ive got to give Brady some credit….he’s trying. And yeah, he’s off on some throws but theyre also dropping perfectly placed catches. D is off, some of them acting like theyve checked out. Oline doing the best they can with what theyve got. Cant blame the rookies, theyre rooks.

    So when i see stuff like this happening, i call it “its for a reason”…the football gods have determined. We can call it circumstance, we can blame this, we can blame that.

    It is what it is. And I hope we get a top 5 draft pick and are able to call Wiil Anderson Jr’s name in the 2023 draft….and then Bo Nix.

  28. Jeff Says:

    Bowles will NEVER be the head coach of any NFL playoff game. It’s simply not possible. He’s far too incompetent. Dungy stubborn and Lovie Stupid.

  29. Beej Says:

    “D-Rok Says:
    November 3rd, 2022 at 2:41 pm
    Well, Beej, I pulled that 37.5% out of thin air in an attempt at sarcasm. ”

    I remember an article recently (might have been here) that delved into that–basically teams that threw in situations where many might want to run were far more successful in the long run

  30. Cobraboy Says:

    What a great season…for Radio Morris.

    Finish below .500, weasel into the playoffs, then get curb-stomped at home.

  31. Listnfrmafar Says:

    The ok that was just a hiccup is over. This team does the exact same thing day in and day out. I have NEVER watched a team and be able to tell you what’s going to happen whether O or D is on the field like the Bucs. If I were to up date the dictionary word for “Predictable” I would add see Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  32. Sal Says:

    The way they’re playing they ain’t sniffing the playoffs there out of the playoffs as of right now #!!

  33. Goatfarmer Says:

    Jim Mora Rant.